Weekly update - 1 August 2019

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Weekly ​Australian Climate,
Water and Agricultural Update

Key issues

  • During the week ending 31 July 2019 little to no rainfall was recorded across most of Australia, with falls mainly restricted to south-eastern Australia.
  • Rainfall of between 10 to 25 millimetres recorded across southern New South Wales and eastern Victoria is likely to benefit crop and pasture growth.
  • Rainfall for July 2019 was below average to average across much of Australia.
  • A negative phase of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), persistence of westerly winds and a lack of rain-bearing weather systems across much of southern Australia were responsible for the dry weather.
  • Following a favourable start to winter, average July 2019 rainfall was recorded across cropping regions in southern New South Wales, Victoria and northern Queensland. These falls and above average temperatures are likely to benefit crop and pasture growth, and improved soil moisture levels.
  • Despite large areas of Western Australia and South Australia recording extremely low to well below average rainfall during July 2019, the average to above average rainfall that was recorded during June 2019 is likely to have been sufficient to support continued crop development in these regions.
  • Lower layer soil moisture in July was very much below average to below average across most cropping regions of New South Wales, southern and eastern Queensland, and southern Western Australia.
  • In contrast, lower layer soil moisture was average or better across cropping regions in southern New South Wales, northern Queensland, Victoria, much of Western Australia and parts of South Australia. These average to above average soil moisture levels, particularly in those regions that recorded low rainfall totals during July, are likely to have been sufficient to maintain winter crop and pasture growth.
  • Across Australia’s winter cropping regions, the 8-day rainfall forecast indicates falls of between 5 and 15 millimetres are expected across southern Victoria, southern South Australia and southern Western Australia.
  • Water storage levels in the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) increased between 23 July and 30 July 2019 by 89 gigalitres (GL). Current volume of water held in storage is 9,493 GL which represents 38% of total capacity. This is 32% or 4,485 GL less than at the same time last year.
  • Allocation prices in the southern Murray-Darling Basin decreased from $622 per ML in the week ending 15 July 2019 to $608 per ML in the week ending 22 July 2019.

Climate

[expand all]

Rainfall this week

During the week ending 31 July 2019 little to no rainfall was recorded across most of Australia, with falls mainly restricted to south-eastern Australia.

Rainfall of between 10 to 25 millimetres was recorded across winter cropping regions in far south of New South Wales, eastern Victoria and north-eastern Western Australia during the week ending 31 July 2019. These falls are likely to benefit crop and pasture growth in southern New South Wales and eastern Victoria.

Lighter rainfall between 1 to 10 millimetres was recorded across remaining winter cropping regions of southern New South Wales and Victoria, South Australia and parts of eastern Western Australia during the week ending 31 July 2019. Cropping regions in northern New South Wales, Queensland and the remainder of Western Australia recorded little to no rainfall.

Rainfall for the week ending 31 July 2019

Map showing weekly rainfall totals in Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2019, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 31/07/2019

Note: The rainfall analyses and associated maps utilise data contained in the Bureau of Meteorology climate database, the Australian Data Archive for Meteorology (ADAM). The analyses are initially produced automatically from real-time data with limited quality control. They are intended to provide a general overview of rainfall across Australia as quickly as possible after the observations are received. For further information go to Weekly Rainfall Update.

Monthly rainfall

Rainfall for July  2019 was below average to average across much of Australia. Particularly low rainfall was recorded across parts of eastern New South Wales, southern South Australia and eastern Western Australia. In contrast, rainfall was above average across parts of western Victoria, northern Queensland, Western Australia and much of Tasmania. A negative phase of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), persistence of westerly winds and a lack of rain-bearing weather systems across much of southern Australia were responsible for the dry weather.

Following a favourable start to winter, average July  2019 rainfall was recorded across cropping regions in southern New South Wales, Victoria and northern Queensland recorded. These falls and above average temperatures are likely to benefit crop and pasture growth, and improved soil moisture levels.

Despite large areas of Western Australia and South Australia recording extremely low to well below average rainfall during July  2019, the average to above average rainfall that was recorded during June 2019 is likely to have been sufficient to support continued crop development in these regions.

Rainfall percentiles for July 2019

 

Source: Bureau of Meteorology

Note: Rainfall for July 2019 is compared with rainfall recorded for that period during the historical record (1900 to present). For further information, go to Australian Water Availability Project

Monthly soil moisture

Upper layer soil moisture as at 31 July  2019 was generally average to very much above average across Victoria, much of Queensland, parts of northern Western Australia, Tasmania and the north of the Northern Territory. In contrast, it was extremely low to very much below average across large areas of New South Wales, south-eastern Queensland, large areas of northern and southern Western Australia, much of South Australia and south of the Northern Territory.

In cropping regions, upper layer soil moisture was generally average to above average across the far south of New South Wales, Victoria, northern Queensland and eastern South Australia. Upper layer soil moisture was generally below average to very much below average across most cropping regions of New South Wales, southern Queensland, Western Australia and western South Australia.

Modelled upper layer soil moisture as at 31 July 2019

 

Source:  Bureau of Meteorology (Australian Water Resources Assessment Landscape model)

Note: This map shows the levels of modelled upper layer soil moisture (0 to 10 centimetres) during July  2019. This map shows how modelled soil conditions during July 2019 compare with July  conditions modelled over the reference period (1911 to 2015). Dark blue areas on the maps were much wetter in July  2019 than during the reference period. The dark red areas were much drier than during the reference period. The bulk of plant roots occur in the top 20 centimetres of the soil profile. Soil moisture in the upper layer of the soil profile is therefore useful indicator of the availability of water, particularly for germinating seed.

Lower layer soil moisture as at 31 July  2019 was very much below average to below average across much of New South Wales, scattered areas of south-eastern Victoria, southern and western Queensland, eastern Tasmania, and much of Western Australia, South Australia and the Northern Territory. In contrast, it was above average to very much above average across parts of south-western Victoria, north-eastern Queensland, western Tasmania and parts of southern Western Australia.

In cropping regions, lower layer soil moisture in July was very much below average to below average across much of New South Wales, southern and eastern Queensland, and southern Western Australia. In contrast, lower layer soil moisture was average or better across cropping regions in southern New South Wales, northern Queensland, Victoria, much of Western Australia and parts of South Australia. These average to above average soil moisture levels, particularly in those regions that recorded low rainfall totals during July, are likely to have been sufficient to maintain winter crop and pasture growth.

Modelled lower layer soil moisture as at 31 July 2019

 

Source:  Bureau of Meteorology (Australian Water Resources Assessment Landscape model)

Note: This map shows the levels of modelled lower layer soil moisture (10 to 100 centimetres) during July 2019. This map shows how modelled soil conditions during July  2019 compare with July  conditions modelled over the reference period (1911 to 2015). Dark blue areas on the maps were much wetter in July  2019 than during the reference period. The dark red areas were much drier than during the reference period. The bulk of plant roots occur in the top 20 centimetres of the soil profile. The lower layer soil moisture is a larger, deeper store that is slower to respond to rainfall and tends to reflect accumulated rainfall events over longer time periods.

Rainfall forecast for the next 8 days

Over the next eight days high pressure systems are expected to persist over southern Australia, limiting rainfall over Australia. Rainfall is expected to be mainly restricted to the far east and south of Australia, with little to no rainfall forecast for most of the country.

Rainfall of between 10 and 50 millimetres is forecast for parts of Victoria, the far south-west of Western Australia, southern South Australia and isolated areas of north-eastern Queensland.  Rainfall of between 10 and 100 millimetres is forecast for western Tasmania.

In cropping regions, rainfall of between 5 and 15 millimetres is expected across southern Victoria, southern South Australia and southern Western Australia. Lighter falls of between 1 and 5 millimetres are forecast across the remainder of Victoria, South Australia and Western Australia, and across eastern New South Wales and central Queensland. Little to no rainfall is expected across remaining areas of Queensland and New South Wales.

Total forecast rainfall (mm) for the period 1 August to 8 August 2019

Map of the total forecast rainfall for the next 8 days. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2019, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 01/87/2019

Note: This rainfall forecast is produced from computer models. As the model outputs are not altered by weather forecasters, it is important to check local forecasts and warnings issued by the Bureau of Meteorology.

Commodities

Current indicators – 1 August 2019

IndicatorWeek endedUnitLatest pricePrice week priorWeekly changePrice 12 months priorYear on year changeChart

Selected World Indicator Prices

Australian Dollar – AUD/USD Exchange Rate31-JulUS$/A$0.69 0.7-1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.0.74-7%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Wheat – US no. 2 hard red winter wheat, fob Gulf30-JulUS$/t216214<1%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.249-13%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Coarse Grains – US no. 2 yellow corn, fob Gulf31-JulUS$/t186189-2%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.16612%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Canola – Rapeseed, Europe, fob Hamburg30-JulUS$/t4234093%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.443-5%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Cotton – Cotlook 'A' Index31-JulUSc/lb75.474.02%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.98.4-23%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Sugar – Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, no.11 contract31-JulUSc/lb12.111.73%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.10.8 12%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Wool – Eastern Market Indicator11-JulAc/kg clean1,7541,7232%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.1,981-11%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Wool – Western Market Indicator12-JulAc/kg clean1,8941,8671%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.2,129-11%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart

Selected domestic crop indicator prices

Milling Wheat – ASW1, track quote, Port Adelaide, SA02-JulA$/t242274-12%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.284-15%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Feed Wheat – General purpose, Sydney, NSW31-JulA$/t3503500%385-9%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Feed Barley – Sydney, NSW31-JulA$/t3603600%3600% chart
Grain Sorghum – Sydney, NSW31-JulA$/t3353350%410-18%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart

Selected domestic livestock indicator prices

Beef – Eastern Young Cattle Indicator25-JulAc/kg cwt5325202%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.4997%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Mutton – Mutton indicator (18–24 kg fat score 2–3), Vic26-JulAc/kg cwt599620-3%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.49322%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Lamb – Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator25-JulAc/kg cwt926942-2%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.79816%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Pig – Eastern Seaboard (60.1–75 kg), average of buyers & sellers19-JulAc/kg cwt3643601%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.24747%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Goat – Eastern States (12.1–16 kg)29-JulAc/kg cwt9089080%55663%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Live cattle – Light steers ex Darwin to Indonesia27-JulAc/kg lwt3102907%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.3003%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Live sheep – Live wether (Muchea WA saleyard) to Middle East13-May$/head13511023%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.9542%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart

Global Dairy Trade (GDT) weighted average prices a

Dairy – Whole milk powder16-JulUS$/t3,0742,9694%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.2,9733%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Dairy – Skim milk powder16-JulUS$/t2,5052,4303%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.1,95928%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Dairy – Cheddar cheese16-JulUS$/t3,8693,7563%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.3,5968%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Dairy – Anhydrous milk fat16-JulUS$/t5,5235,4332%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.5,629-2%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart

a Global Dairy Trade prices are updated twice monthly on the first and third Tuesday of each month.

Selected world indicator prices
Selected domestic crop indicator prices
Selected domestic livestock indicator prices
Global dairy trade weighted average prices
Movements in selected fruit and vegetable prices
Data attribution

Water

Water storages, water markets and water allocations - current week

​​
T​h​e Tableau dashboard may not meet accessibility requirements. For information about the contents of these dashboards contact ABARES.​

​​​




Last reviewed:
01 Aug 2019