Weekly update - 2 November 2017

​​Weekly Australian Climate,
Water and Agricultural Update

Key issues

  • During the week ending 1 November 2017 rainfall was recorded in all states and territories, with the highest totals in northern and south-eastern Australia.
  • For the week ending 31 October 2017 maximum temperatures were above average (2°C to 4°C) across most of mainland Australia. They were 4°C to 6°C above average in north-eastern New South Wales, northern Western Australia and central parts of the Northern Territory.
  • Rainfall during October 2017 was above average in central Western Australia and across much of eastern Australia. These above average falls have benefited soil moisture and water storage levels and increased pasture production.
  • Upper layer soil moisture for October 2017 was extremely high in Queensland, northern New South Wales, central Western Australia, northern South Australia and southern parts of the Northern Territory. Across much of the remainder of Australia it was close to average.
  • Relative lower layer soil moisture for October 2017 was extremely high in eastern, south-western and far northern Queensland, northern South Australia, central Western Australia and southern parts of the Northern Territory. In contrast, it was extremely low in south-eastern New South Wales, eastern Victoria, eastern Tasmania, south-eastern South Australia and parts of southern Western Australia.
  • For the next eight days, rainfall totals between 10 and 50 millimetres are forecast for south-eastern Australia and isolated parts of western and northern Australia.
  • Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) decreased during the week ending 2 November 2017 by 132 gigalitres (GL) to 16,172 GL and are at 72 per cent of total capacity.
  • Allocation prices in the southern Murray–Darling Basin remained steady in the week to 2 November 2017 at $131 per ML.

Climate

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Rainfall this week

During the week ending 1 November 2017 rainfall was recorded in all states and territories, with the highest totals in northern and south-eastern Australia. Totals between 10 and 50 millimetres were recorded in south-western, central and eastern New South Wales, northern and south-eastern Queensland, and across most of Victoria and Tasmania–except the north-east. Similar totals were recorded in south-eastern South Australia, south-western and far northern Western Australia, southern and north-western parts of the Northern Territory. Higher totals (between 50 and 100 millimetres) were recorded in western Tasmania, parts of eastern Victoria and the south coast of New South Wales. The highest recorded weekly total was 247 millimetres at Marysville, north-east of Melbourne in Victoria.

Rainfall - week ending 1 November 2017

Map showing weekly rainfall totals in Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2017, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 1/11/2017

Note: The rainfall analyses and associated maps utilise data contained in the Bureau of Meteorology climate database, the Australian Data Archive for Meteorology (ADAM). The analyses are initially produced automatically from real-time data with limited quality control. They are intended to provide a general overview of rainfall across Australia as quickly as possible after the observations are received. For further information go to Weekly Rainfall Update.

Temperature anomalies this week

During the week ending 31 October 2017 maximum temperatures were above average (2°C to 4°C) across most of mainland Australia. They were 4°C to 6°C above average in north-eastern New South Wales, northern Western Australia and central parts of the Northern Territory. Minimum temperatures were above average (2°C to 4°C) across the northern half of Australia and south-eastern Australia. They were close to average for the remainder of Australia.

Maximum temperature anomalies - week ending 31 October 2017

Map showing maximum temperature anomalies in Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2017, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 31/10/2017

Minimum temperature anomalies - week ending 31 October 2017

Map showing minimum temperature anomalies in Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description.] 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2017, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 31/10/2017

Note: Spatial temperature analyses are based on historical weekly temperature data provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. These temperature anomaly maps show the departure of the maximum and minimum temperatures from their long-term averages. Temperature anomalies are calculated using high-resolution gridded datasets from 1911 onwards. For further information go to Daily maximum temperature for Australia.

Monthly rainfall

Following below average rainfall over much of Australia in September 2017, October 2017 was wetter than average in central Western Australia and across much of eastern Australia. For Australia as whole, rainfall was about one and a half times the usual average for October, largely influenced by above average rainfall in Queensland. Highest on record rainfall was recorded in south-eastern Queensland around Bundaberg and Baralaba, and northern Queensland around Palmerville. Parts of Queensland’s east coast received more than 400 per cent of their average October rainfall and daily rainfall records were set at numerous locations.

Above average rainfall was also recorded in northern New South Wales, parts of the Northern Territory, parts of the north and west of South Australia and across much of Western Australia including the Kimberly and the eastern Pilbara. These above average falls have benefited soil moisture and water storage levels and increased pasture production.

October rainfall was below average across areas of south-western Western Australia and scattered areas across south-eastern South Australia, Victoria and for most of Tasmania.

In the cropping regions, October 2017 rainfall was extremely high in Queensland and northern New South Wales. It was close to average in southern New South Wales, Victoria, South Australia and Western Australia.

Rainfall percentiles for October 2017

Map showing rainfall percentiles for October 2017. Data provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

Source: Bureau of Meteorology
Note: Rainfall for October 2017 is compared with rainfall recorded for that period during the historical record (1900 to present). For further information, go to Australian Water Availability Project 

Monthly soil moisture

Above average rainfall during October 2017 has increased upper and lower layer soil moisture across much of Australia.

Relative upper layer soil moisture for October 2017 was extremely high in Queensland, northern New South Wales, central Western Australia, northern South Australia and southern parts of the Northern Territory. Across much of the remainder of Australia it was close to average. The pattern of relative upper layer soil moisture reflects October 2017 rainfall.

In the cropping regions, upper layer soil moisture was extremely high in Queensland and northern New South Wales. It was close to average in southern New South Wales, Victoria, South Australia and Western Australia.

Modelling upper layer soil moisture for October 2017

Map showing relative upper layer soil moisture for October 2017. Data provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

Source: Bureau of Meteorology (Australian Water Resources Assessment Landscape model)
Note: This map shows the levels of modelled upper layer soil moisture (0 to 10 centimetres) during October 2017. This map shows how modelled soil conditions during October 2017 compare with October conditions modelled over the reference period (1911 to 2015). Dark blue areas on the maps were much wetter in October 2017 than during the same period over the reference period. The dark red areas were much drier than during the reference period. The bulk of plant roots occur in the top 20 centimetres of the soil profile. Soil moisture in the upper layer of the soil profile is therefore the most appropriate indicator of the availability of water, particularly for germinating plants. The lower layer soil moisture is a larger, deeper store that is slower to respond to rainfall and tends to reflect accumulated rainfall events over longer time periods.

Relative lower layer soil moisture for October 2017 was extremely high in eastern, south-western and far northern Queensland, northern South Australia, central Western Australia and southern parts of the Northern Territory. In contrast, it was extremely low in south-eastern New South Wales, eastern Victoria, eastern Tasmania, south-eastern South Australia and parts of southern Western Australia.

In cropping regions, lower layer soil moisture ranged from average to well above average in Queensland and Western Australia. It was average to well below average in cropping regions in New South Wales, Victoria, and South Australia.

Modelling lower layer soil moisture for October 2017

Map showing relative lower layer soil moisture for October 2017. Data provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

Source: Bureau of Meteorology (Australian Water Resources Assessment Landscape model)
Note: This map shows the levels of modelled lower layer soil moisture (10 centimetres to 1 metre) during October 2017. This map shows how modelled soil conditions during October 2017 compare with October conditions modelled over the reference period (1911 to 2015). Dark blue areas on the maps were much wetter in October 2017 than during the same period over the reference period. The dark red areas were much drier than during the reference period. The bulk of plant roots occur in the top 20 centimetres of the soil profile. Soil moisture in the upper layer of the soil profile is therefore the most appropriate indicator of the availability of water, particularly for germinating plants. The lower layer soil moisture is a larger, deeper store that is slower to respond to rainfall and tends to reflect accumulated rainfall events over longer time periods.

Rainfall forecast for the next 8 days

Rainfall is mainly expected in south-eastern Australia and isolated parts of western and northern Australia during the next eight days. Rainfall totals between 10 and 50 millimetres are forecast for eastern New South Wales, scattered areas across Queensland, northern Victoria, south-eastern South Australia and most of Tasmania. Similar totals are forecast for the north-western Northern Territory and isolated parts of Western Australia.

Total forecast rainfall (mm) for the period 2 to 9 November 2017

Map of the total forecast rainfall for the next 8 days. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

Source: ©Commonwealth of Australia 2017, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 2/11/2017

Water

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Water availability

Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) decreased during the week ending 2 November 2017 by 132 gigalitres (GL) to 16,172 GL and are at 72 per cent of total capacity. This is 11 percentage points or 2,515 GL less than at the same time last year.

Visit the interactive Tableau data dashboard

Water storages in the Murray-Darling Basin (NSW, Victoria and Queensland)

Line graph showing water storages in the Murray–Darling Basin (NSW, Victoria and Queensland) from 2000 to 2017, measured as a percentage of the total storage of 22,598 gigalitres. 

Information on water available in dams used for irrigation the Murray–Darling Basin from 1 January 2001 to 2 November 2017 is shown above. The top horizontal (short dash) line indicates the storage level during a similar time last year. The bottom horizontal (long dash) line indicates the amount of ‘dead’ or unusable storage.

Water storage

Changes in regional water storage for October 2017 and the previous 12 months are summarised in the table and graph below (current at 2 November 2017).

Region

Total capacity

Current volume

Current volume

Monthly change

Monthly change

Annual change

Annual change

 

(GL)

(GL)

(%)

(GL)

(%)

(GL)

(%)

Murray–Darling Basin (MDB)

22,559

16,172

72

–490

-2

–2,515

–11

Murray–Darling Basin Authority (MDBA) controlled storages

9,352

7,039

75

–189

-2

–136

–1

Queensland MDB

186

145

78

9

5

–36

–19

Central Queensland

3,154

2,432

77

31

1

–52

–2

South–east Queensland

3,517

2,300

65

163

5

4

0

New South Wales MDB

13,884

9,189

66

–561

-4

–2,584

–19

Coastal New South Wales

1,074

895

83

–10

-1

–90

–8

Victoria MDB

8,488

6,839

81

62

1

104

1

State water storages in the Murray-Darling Basin (NSW, Victoria and Queensland)

Line graph showing water storages in the Murray–Darling Basin by state (NSW, Victoria and Queensland) 

Water allocations

On 1 November 2017 NSW Department of Primary Industries - Water announced allocation increases of:

  • 2% for NSW Murray general security to 30%

On 1 November 2017 the Resource Manager for Northern Victoria announced seasonal determination increases of:

  • 50% for Victoria Broken high reliability to 100%
  • 1% for Victoria Campaspe low reliability to 30%
  • 2% for Victoria Goulburn high reliability to 93%
  • 2% for Victoria Loddon high reliability to 93%
  • The current water allocations for the 2017–18 water trading season for licence holders in New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia water systems are summarised in the following table and charts.
Water allocations in the Murray–Darling Basin (NSW, Victoria and South Australia)

Allocations at

2 November 2017

16 October 2017

New South Wales

General security

High security

General security

High security

NSW Murray

32%

97%

30%

97%

NSW Murrumbidgee

33%

95%

33%

95%

NSW Lower Darling

100%

100%

100%

100%

NSW Macquarie and Cudgegong

38%

100%

38%

100%

NSW Hunter

100%

100%

100%

100%

NSW Lachlan

2%

100%

2%

100%

NSW Lower Namoi

7%

100%

7%

100%

NSW Upper Namoi

100%

100%

100%

100%

NSW Gwydir

12%

100%

12%

100%

NSW Border Rivers

100%(a)/11.1%(b)

100%

100%(a)/11.1%(b)

100%

NSW Peel

100%

100%

100%

100%

Victoria

Low reliability

High reliability

Low reliability

High reliability

Victoria Murray

0%

100%

0%

100%

Victoria Goulburn

0%

93%

0%

91%

Victoria Campaspe

30%

100%

29%

100%

Victoria Loddon

0%

93%

0%

91%

Victoria Bullarook

100%

100%

100%

100%

Victoria Broken

0%

100%

0%

50%

South Australia

 

Class 3a/3b

 

Class 3a/3b

South Australia Murray

 

100%

 

100%

(a) General Security A class. (b) General Security B class

Select water allocation percentages in the southern Murray-Darling Basin

 

 

 

 

Water markets

Allocation prices in the southern Murray–Darling Basin remained steady in the week up to 2 November 2017 at $131 per ML. This contrasts with an average price of $139 in October across the whole southern MDB, and $73 during the same time last year.

Allocation trade activity in the southern Murray–Darling Basin

Allocation trade activity in the southern Murray-Darling Basin. The trades shown reflect market activity and do not encompass all register trades. The price line reflects locally fitted price values for the entire southern Murray-Darling Basin.  

The trades shown reflect estimated market activity and do not encompass all register trades. The price line reflects locally fitted price values for the entire southern Murray–Darling Basin. Data shown is current until Thursday 2 October 2017. Trade activity is shown as colour density.

Allocation trade prices, southern Murray–Darling Basin trade zones

 

Southern MDB

Victoria Goulburn

SA Murray

NSW Murrumbidgee

Victoria Murray

NSW Murray

Current week: 27/10/17 – 02/11/17

$131.09

$103.94

$147.92

$127.00

$162.03

$147.29

Last week: 20/10/17 – 26/10/17

$131.80

$110.06

$150.45

$146.57

$140.34

$147.53

October 2017

$138.51

$114.27

$176.71

$138.31

$143.95

$148.29

October 2016

$72.87

$88.96

$76.51

$50.75

$103.94

$76.25

Commodities

Current indicators – 2 November 2017

IndicatorWeek endedUnitLatest pricePrice week priorWeekly changePrice 12 months priorYear on year changeChart

Selected world indicator prices

Australian Dollar – AUD/USD Exchange Rate01-NovUS$/A$0.770.78-1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.0.761%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Wheat – US no. 2 hard red winter wheat, fob Gulf31-OctUS$/t2152121%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.19311%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Coarse Grains – US no. 2 yellow corn, fob Gulf01-NovUS$/t1491490%158-6%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Canola – Rapeseed, Europe, fob Hamburga31-OctUS$/t428429<1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.435-2%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Cotton – Cotlook 'A' Index01-NovUSc/lb79.478.8<1%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.78.51%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Sugar – Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, no.11 contract01-NovUSc/lb14.614.14%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.21.8-33%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Wool – Eastern Market Indicator26-OctAc/kg clean1,5781,568<1%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.1,33119%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Wool – Western Market Indicator27-OctAc/kg clean1,6341,6141%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.1,39117%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart

Selected domestic crop indicator prices

Milling Wheat – ASW1, track quote, Port Adelaide, SA31-OctA$/t2192152%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.2019%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Feed Wheat – General purpose, Sydney, NSW01-NovA$/t2582580%2513%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Feed Barley – Sydney, NSW01-NovA$/t251256-2%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.18337%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Canola – Portland, Vic.30-OctA$/t536533<1%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.547-2%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Grain Sorghum – Sydney, NSW01-OctA$/t304314-3%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.23132%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart

Selected domestic livestock indicator prices

Beef – Eastern Young Cattle Indicator26-OctAc/kg cwt5665532%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.680-17%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Mutton – Mutton indicator (18-24 kg fat score 2-3), Vic27-OctAc/kg cwt4474177%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.37719%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Lamb – Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator26-OctAc/kg cwt623629<1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.56111%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Pig – Eastern Seaboard (60.1-75 kg), average of buyers & sellers20-OctAc/kg cwt2772770%378-27%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Goat – Eastern States (12.1-16 kg)30-OctAc/kg cwt4624620%587-21%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Live cattle – Light steers ex Darwin to Indonesia28-OctAc/kg lwt3303203%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.nana chart
Live sheep – Live wether (Muchea WA saleyard) to Middle East30-Oct$/head108124-13%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.9119%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart

Global Dairy Trade weighted average pricesa

Dairy – Whole milk powder17-OctUS$/t3,0143,037<1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.2,7609%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Dairy – Skim milk powder17-OctUS$/t1,7971,895-5%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.2,204-18%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Dairy – Cheddar cheese17-OctUS$/t4,1074,109<1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.3,29025%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Dairy – Anhydrous milk fat17-OctUS$/t6,8416,5045%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.5,00737%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart

a Global Dairy Trade prices are updated twice monthly on the first and third Tuesday of each month.

Movements in selected fruit and vegetable prices
Data attribution

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Last reviewed:
02 Nov 2017