Weekly update - 5 July 2018

​​​​​​​​​​​​Weekly Australian Climate,
Water and Agricultural Update

Key issues

  • During the week ending 4 July 2018 rainfall was restricted to the south-west and east of the country. Rainfall totals of between 10 and 50 millimetres were recorded across large areas of central and north eastern New South Wales, southern and north-eastern Queensland, south-western Western Australia, western and northern Tasmania and scattered areas of southern Victoria and southern South Australia.
  • For the week ending 3 July 2018, maximum temperatures were generally average across much of the country. In contrast, minimum temperatures were below average (-2°C to -6°C) across large areas of western and central Australia and above average (2°C to 8°C) across much of Queensland, the north-east of New South Wales and the north of the Northern Territory.
  • Rainfall in June 2018 was generally below average for Australia as a whole. Severely deficient to below average rainfall was recorded across large areas of Queensland and northern New South Wales, where a number of stations received record low June rainfall.
  • Relative lower layer soil moisture in June 2018 was extremely low to well below average across much of New South Wales, parts of eastern Victoria, southern and central Queensland, parts of northern and southern South Australia, the Northern Territory and large areas of northern and southern Western Australia.
  • Rainfall deficiencies have increased across large parts of eastern Australia and southern South Australia at the 15-month timescale due to particularly dry June. Serious to severe rainfall deficiencies are in place across large areas of New South Wales; large areas of southern to central Queensland; parts of eastern Victoria; parts of eastern and southern South Australia; parts of Western Australia; and along the east coast of Tasmania.
  • During the next eight days, rainfall is expected across the south-west, south-east and north-east of mainland Australia, and most of Tasmania. Little to no rainfall is forecast across the remainder of the country.
  • Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) increased during the week ending 5 July 2018 by 19 gigalitres (GL) to 11,727 GL and are at 52 per cent of total capacity. This is 17 percentage points or 3,931 GL less than at the same time last year.

Climate

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Rainfall this week

During the week ending 4 July 2018 little to no rainfall was recorded across much of mainland Australia, with falls restricted to the south-west and east of the country. Rainfall totals of between 10 and 50 millimetres were recorded across large areas of central and north eastern New South Wales, southern and north-eastern Queensland, south-western Western Australia, western and northern Tasmania and scattered areas of southern Victoria and southern South Australia.

Higher rainfall totals in excess of 50 millimetres were recorded across coastal parts of north-eastern Queensland and the west of Western Australia. The highest recorded weekly total was 258 millimetres at Topaz Alert, south of Cairns in northern Queensland.

Rainfall analysis for the week ending 4 July 2018

Map showing weekly rainfall totals in Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2018, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 4/7/2018

Note: The rainfall analyses and associated maps utilise data contained in the Bureau of Meteorology climate database, the Australian Data Archive for Meteorology (ADAM). The analyses are initially produced automatically from real-time data with limited quality control. They are intended to provide a general overview of rainfall across Australia as quickly as possible after the observations are received. For further information go to Weekly Rainfall Update.

Temperature anomalies this week

For the week ending 3 July 2018, maximum temperatures were generally average across much of the country. Maximum temperatures were slightly above average (2°C to 4°C) across parts of western and northern Australia. Minimum temperatures were below average (-2°C to -6°C) across large areas of western and central Australia and above average (2°C to 8°C) across much of Queensland, the north-east of New South Wales and the north of the Northern Territory. Minimum temperatures were generally average for the remainder of the country.

Maximum temperature anomalies for the week ending 3 July 2018

Map showing maximum temperature anomalies in Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2018, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 4/7/2018

Minimum temperature anomalies for the week ending 3 July 2018

Map showing minimum temperature anomalies in Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description.] 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2018, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 4/7/2018

Note: Spatial temperature analyses are based on historical weekly temperature data provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. These temperature anomaly maps show the departure of the maximum and minimum temperatures from the average over the 1961 to 1990 reference period. For further information go to Daily maximum temperature for Australia.

Monthly rainfall

Rainfall in June 2018 was generally below average for Australia as a whole. Severely deficient to below average rainfall was recorded across large areas of Queensland and northern New South Wales, where a number of stations received record low June rainfall. Rainfall was below average across large areas of central and northern Australia, and parts of south-western Western Australia and southern South Australia. In contrast, above average to extremely high rainfall was recorded in north-western Western Australia, parts of western Queensland and scattered areas of northern New South Wales.

June 2018 rainfall in cropping regions was generally extremely low in southern Queensland and northern New South Wales. It was below average in northern and southern cropping regions in Western Australia and the Eyre and Yorke peninsulas in South Australia, and generally average in central and southern New South Wales, Victoria, central Queensland, central cropping regions in Western Australia and the remainder of South Australia.

Rainfall percentiles for June 2018

Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

Source: Bureau of Meteorology

Note: Rainfall for June 2018 is compared with rainfall recorded for that period during the historical record (1900 to present). For further information, go to Australian Water Availability Project

Monthly soil moisture

Relative upper layer soil moisture in June 2018 was extremely low to well below average across large areas of southern and eastern Queensland, the northern half of New South Wales, northern South Australia, the Northern Territory, and large areas of northern Western Australia. It was generally average across southern New South Wales, Victoria, western Queensland, the rest of South Australia, Tasmania and much of Western Australia.

In cropping regions, upper layer soil moisture was extremely low to well below average in southern and northern Queensland and northern New South Wales. In contrast, it was generally average in southern New South Wales, Victoria, South Australia and Western Australia.

Modelling upper layer soil moisture for June 2018

Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

Source: Bureau of Meteorology (Australian Water Resources Assessment Landscape model)

Note: This map shows the levels of modelled upper layer soil moisture (0 to 10 centimetres) during June 2018. This map shows how modelled soil conditions during June 2018 compare with April conditions modelled over the reference period (1911 to 2015). Dark blue areas on the maps were much wetter in June 2018 than during the same period over the reference period. The dark red areas were much drier than during the reference period. The bulk of plant roots occur in the top 20 centimetres of the soil profile. Soil moisture in the upper layer of the soil profile is therefore the most appropriate indicator of the availability of water, particularly for germinating plants. The lower layer soil moisture is a larger, deeper store that is slower to respond to rainfall and tends to reflect accumulated rainfall events over longer time periods.

Relative lower layer soil moisture in June 2018 was extremely low to well below average across much of New South Wales, parts of eastern Victoria, southern and central Queensland, parts of northern and southern South Australia, the Northern Territory and large areas of northern and southern Western Australia. It was average to above across much of northern Queensland, Tasmania, Victoria, the reminder of South Australia and western and central Western Australia.

In cropping regions, lower layer soil moisture was extremely low to well below average in northern and central New South Wales, southern Western Australia and most of Queensland.  It was variable in South Australia, ranging from well below average on the Eyre Peninsula to average in most other cropping regions. Lower layer soil moisture was generally average in parts of southern New South Wales, Victoria, and central and northern Western Australia

Modelling lower layer soil moisture for June 2018

Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

Source: Bureau of Meteorology (Australian Water Resources Assessment Landscape model)

Note: This map shows the levels of modelled lower layer soil moisture (10 centimetres to 1 metre) during June 2018. This map shows how modelled soil conditions during June 2018 compare with April conditions modelled over the reference period (1911 to 2015). Dark blue areas on the maps were much wetter in June 2018 than during the same period over the reference period. The dark red areas were much drier than during the reference period. The bulk of plant roots occur in the top 20 centimetres of the soil profile. Soil moisture in the upper layer of the soil profile is therefore the most appropriate indicator of the availability of water, particularly for germinating plants. The lower layer soil moisture is a larger, deeper store that is slower to respond to rainfall and tends to reflect accumulated rainfall events over longer time periods.

Rainfall deficiencies

The rainfall deficiencies presented below are sourced from the Bureau of Meteorology’s monthly ‘Drought Statement’. As short to longer-term deficiencies become evident the Bureau of Meteorology monitors these events through their lifecycle – from emergence through to their dissipation – with the time-period of analysis each month increasing from a fixed starting point to the easing of the deficiencies.

For further information, go to Drought

Below average rainfall for June has increased rainfall deficiencies across much of New South Wales, far south-western Queensland, north-eastern South Australia, and agricultural districts of South Australia between the Fleurieu and Eyre peninsulas.

The year so far has been drier than average for the southeastern quarter of mainland Australia; for this region January to June 2018 has been the fourth-driest such period since comparable records commence in 1900. For this six months period, serious to severe rainfall deficiencies persist across much of New South Wales, western and south-eastern Victoria, parts of central and southern Queensland, eastern South Australia and in Western Australia's South Coastal District.

Compared to the 14-month period (April 2017 to May 2018) presented in the previous Drought Statement, above average June rainfall over the northwest of Western Australia has alleviated deficiencies in the coastal southeast of the Pilbara and northeastern Gascoyne. Conversely, deficiencies have increased over large parts of eastern Australia and southern South Australia.

For the 15 months, 1 April 2017 to 30 June 2018, serious to severe rainfall deficiencies are in place across large areas of New South Wales; large areas of southern to central Queensland; parts of eastern Victoria; and parts of eastern and southern South Australia. Serious to severe rainfall deficiencies are also present along the western and southern coast of Western Australia from, and along the east coast of Tasmania (Bureau of Meteorology ‘Drought Statement’, 3 July 2018).

Rainfall deficiencies for the 6-month period 1 January 2018 to 30 June 2018

Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2018, Australia Bureau of Meteorology Issued: 03/07/2018  

Rainfall deficiencies for the 15-month period 1 April 2017 to 30 June 2018

Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2018, Australia Bureau of Meteorology Issued: 03/07/2018  

Rainfall forecast for the next 8 days

During the next eight days, rainfall is expected across the south-west, south-east and north-east of mainland Australia, and most of Tasmania. Little to no rainfall is forecast across the remainder of the country. Rainfall totals of between 10 and 50 millimetres are forecast for south-western Western Australia, alpine areas of New South Wales, isolated coast areas of Queensland, southern and alpine areas of Victoria, parts of southern South Australia, and western and northern Tasmania. Heavier falls of between 50 and 150 millimetres are forecast for parts of western and northern Tasmania.

This rainfall forecast is produced from computer models. As it contains no input from weather forecasters, it is important to check local forecasts and warnings issued by the Bureau of Meteorology.

Total forecast rainfall (mm) for the period 5 to 12 July 2018

Map of the total forecast rainfall for the next 8 days. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2018, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 5/7/2018

Commodities

Current indicators – 5 July 2018

IndicatorWeek endedUnitLatest pricePrice week priorWeekly changePrice 12 months priorYear on year changeChart

Selected world indicator prices

Australian Dollar – AUD/USD Exchange Rate04-JulUS$/A$0.740.740%0.77-4%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Wheat – US no. 2 hard red winter wheat, fob Gulf03-JulUS$/t224233-4%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.245-9%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Coarse Grains – US no. 2 yellow corn, fob Gulf04-JulUS$/t157162-3%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.160-2%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Canola – Rapeseed, Europe, fob Hamburga03-JulUS$/t4173956%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.4092%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Cotton – Cotlook 'A' Index04-JulUSc/lb93.594.0<1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.83.812%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Sugar – Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, no.11 contract04-JulUSc/lb11.711.9-2%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.13.6-14%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Wool – Eastern Market Indicator28-JunAc/kg clean2,0562,073<1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.1,50736%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Wool – Western Market Indicator29-JunAc/kg clean2,2432,1883%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.1,55245%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart

Selected domestic crop indicator prices

Milling Wheat – ASW1, track quote, Port Adelaide, SA03-JulA$/t284285<1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.24715%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Feed Wheat – General purpose, Sydney, NSW27-JunA$/t3753750%25845%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Feed Barley – Sydney, NSW20-JunA$/t3503500%23648%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Canola – Portland, Vic.02-JulA$/t518513<1%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.5053%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Grain Sorghum – Sydney, NSW20-JunA$/t3553550%28425%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart

Selected domestic livestock indicator prices

Beef – Eastern Young Cattle Indicator28-JunAc/kg cwt4994804%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.621-20%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Mutton – Mutton indicator (18-24 kg fat score 2-3), Vic29-JunAc/kg cwt5335183%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.48211%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Lamb – Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator28-JunAc/kg cwt7106519%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.62514%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Pig – Eastern Seaboard (60.1-75 kg), average of buyers & sellers22-JunAc/kg cwt253251<1%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.285-11%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Goat – Eastern States (12.1-16 kg)02-JulAc/kg cwt5165160%682-24%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Live cattle – Light steers ex Darwin to Indonesia23-JunAc/kg lwt2752606%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.nana chart
Live sheep – Live wether (Muchea WA saleyard) to Middle East14-May$/head95nana116-18%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart

Global Dairy Trade weighted average pricesa

Dairy – Whole milk powder19-JunUS$/t2,9053,189-9%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.3,111-7%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Dairy – Skim milk powder19-JunUS$/t1,9132,003-4%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.2,090-8%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Dairy – Cheddar cheese19-JunUS$/t3,7133,847-3%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.4,051-8%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Dairy – Anhydrous milk fat19-JunUS$/t5,9376,060-2%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.6,596-10%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart

a Global Dairy Trade prices are updated twice monthly on the first and third Tuesday of each month.

Selected world indicator prices
Selected domestic crop indicator prices
Selected domestic livestock indicator prices
Global dairy trade weighted average prices
Movements in selected fruit and vegetable prices
Data attribution

Water

Water storages, water markets and water allocations - current week

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Last reviewed:
05 Jul 2018