Weekly update - 8 June 2017

During the week ending 7 June 2017 little to no rainfall was recorded across most of mainland Australia. Rainfall totals exceeding 25 millimetres were recorded in coastal parts of New South Wales, eastern Victoria and western Tasmania. Similar totals were recorded in parts of coastal Queensland around Cairns. The highest recorded weekly total was 140 millimetres at Nelson Bay, north of Newcastle in New South Wales.

The rainfall analyses and associated maps utilise data contained in the Bureau of Meteorology climate database, the Australian Data Archive for Meteorology (ADAM). The analyses are initially produced automatically from real-time data with limited quality control. They are intended to provide a general overview of rainfall across Australia as quickly as possible after the observations are received.

Rainfall - week ending 7 June 2017

©Commonwealth of Australia 2017, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 7/06/2017

During the week ending 6 June 2017 maximum temperatures were close to average across much of the country with the exception of Western Australia where temperatures were between 2°C and 8°C above average. Minimum temperatures were generally below average for most of central, southern and eastern Australia due to a slow moving high pressure system. Parts of South Australia recorded minimum temperatures between 6°C and 10°C below average for this time of year. In contrast, minimum temperatures were between 2°C and 4°C above average in parts of western and northern Australia.

Maximum temperature anomalies - week ending 6 June 2017

©Commonwealth of Australia 2017, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 6/06/2017

Minimum temperature anomalies - week ending 6 June 2017

©Commonwealth of Australia 2017, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 6/06/2017

Note: Spatial temperature analyses are based on historical weekly temperature data provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. These temperature anomaly maps show the departure of the maximum and minimum temperatures from their long-term averages. Temperature anomalies are calculated using high-resolution gridded datasets from 1911 onwards. For further information go to Daily maximum temperature for Australia.

The maps below show the levels of modelled upper layer (0 to 10 centimetres) soil moisture and lower layer (10 centimetres to 1 metre) soil moisture during May 2017. These maps show how modelled soil conditions during May 2017 compare with May conditions modelled over the 106 year reference period (1911 to 2016). Dark blue areas on the maps are those areas that were much wetter than the same time of year during the reference period, and dark red areas were much drier than during the reference period. These data are from the Australian Water Resources Assessment Landscape model (AWRA-L version 5.0), which was developed through the Water Information Research and Development Alliance (WIRADA) initiative. WIRADA is a collaborative project between the BoM and the CSIRO.

The bulk of plant roots occur in the top 20 centimetres of the soil profile. Soil moisture in the upper layer of the soil profile (10 centimetres) is therefore the most appropriate indicator of the availability of water, particularly for germinating plants. The lower layer soil moisture is a larger, deeper store that is slower to respond to rainfall and tends to reflect accumulated rainfall events over longer time periods.

Relative upper layer soil moisture for May 2017 was close to average across much of Australia. The main exceptions were extremely high soil moisture across parts of north-eastern Australia and extremely low soil moisture in western parts of Western Australia. It was also extremely low in isolated parts of central and western Queensland, central parts of the Northern Territory, western and southern South Australia and eastern Victoria. The pattern of relative upper layer soil moisture reflects May 2017 rainfall.

Modelled upper layer soil moisture for May 2017

Source: Bureau of Meteorology (Australian Water Resources Assessment Landscape model)

Relative lower layer soil moisture for May 2017 was well above average to extremely high in north-eastern and south-western New South Wales, western Victoria, eastern Queensland and central South Australia. It was also above average across much of Western Australia and northern parts of the Northern Territory. In contrast, lower layer soil moisture was well below average to extremely low across central and western Queensland and adjacent areas of the Northern Territory, western and southern South Australia and much of western Western Australia.

Modelled lower layer soil moisture for May 2017

Source: Bureau of Meteorology (Australian Water Resources Assessment Landscape model)

The forecast for the next eight days indicates that little to no rainfall is expected across most of mainland Australia, with the exception of coastal New South Wales and the Gascoyne region of Western Australia. The first east coast low of winter is expected to bring heavy rain and windy conditions to parts of the New South Wales coast, with cumulative rainfall totals expected to exceed 50 millimetres along much of the coastline.

This rainfall forecast is produced from computer models. As it contains no input from weather forecasters, it is important to check local forecasts and warnings issued by the Bureau of Meteorology.

Total forecast rainfall (mm) for the period 8 to 15 June 2017

©Commonwealth of Australia 2017, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 8/06/2017

Sea surface temperatures across the tropical Pacific remain warmer than average, though cooling has occurred in some areas over recent weeks in response to stronger than average trade winds. The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral and the Bureau of Meteorology’s ENSO Outlook is at El Niño WATCH.

Four out of eight international climate models suggest tropical Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures may exceed El Niño thresholds during the second half of 2017. Virtually all models have reduced the extent of predicted ocean warming compared to earlier in the year, indicating that if an El Niño forms, it is likely to be weak. If the tropical Pacific remains warmer than average, but El Niño thresholds are not quite met, some El Niño-like effects are still possible.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains neutral. Four out of six climate models suggest a positive IOD may develop by the end of winter. However, model accuracy for the IOD at this time of year is low. A positive IOD is typically associated with a drier than average winter and spring for southern and central Australia (Bureau of Meteorology ‘ENSO Wrap-up’, 6 June 2017).

Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) increased during the week ending 8 June 2017 by 94 gigalitres (GL) to 15,445 GL and are at 68 per cent of total capacity. This is 35 percentage points or 7,970 GL more than at the same time last year.

Water storages in the Murray-Darling Basin (NSW, Victoria and Queensland)

Information on irrigation water available in the Murray–Darling Basin from 1 January 2001 to 8 June 2017 is shown above. The top horizontal (short dash) line indicates the storage level during a similar time last year. The bottom horizontal (long dash) line indicates the amount of ‘dead’ or unusable storage.

The current water allocations for the 2017–18 water trading season for licence holders in New South Wales, Victorian and South Australian water systems are summarised in the following table. The only change is general security allocations in the Gwydir Valley (NSW) which increased to 78.6 per cent.

*Carryover water may also be available
(a) General Security A class. (b) General Security B class

Allocation prices in the southern Murray-Darling Basin remained low in the week up to 8 June 2017 in most systems. Average prices across the whole southern system fell to $15.20. This is a decrease of $1.77 or 10 per cent from the same time last week. This contrasts with an average price of $22.67 in May across the whole southern MDB.

Allocation trade activity in the southern Murray-Darling Basin

The trades shown reflect market activity and do not encompass all register trades. The price line reflects locally fitted price values for the entire southern Murray-Darling Basin. Data shown is current until Thursday 8 June, 2017.

Sugar prices

According to the FO Licht International Sugar & Sweetener Report, Brazil exported a monthly record of 2.5 million tonnes of sugar in May 2017, 9 per cent higher than the previous record set in 2009. This resulted in world sugar prices falling by 8 per cent in the week ending 7 June 2017 to average US14 cents a pound.

Dairy prices

The average price for cheddar cheese rose 15 per cent at the global dairy auction (GDT) event on 6 June 2017 to US$4,285 a tonne. This is the highest average price for cheddar on the GDT since June 2014. The average price for skim milk powder rose by 8 per cent, while the average price for whole milk powder fell by 5 per cent.

Indicator	Week ended	Unit	Latest price	Price week prior	Weekly change	Price 12 months prior	Year on year change	Chart
Selected world indicator prices
Australian Dollar – AUD/USD Exchange Rate	07-Jun	US$/A$	0.74	0.74	0%	0.73	1%	chart
Wheat – US no. 2 hard red winter wheat, fob Gulf	06-Jun	US$/t	202	202	0%	205	-1%	chart
Coarse Grains – US no. 2 yellow corn, fob Gulf	07-Jun	US$/t	161	159	1%	184	-13%	chart
Canola – Rapeseed, Europe, fob Hamburg	06-Jun	US$/t	412	424	-3%	426	-3%	chart
Cotton – Cotlook 'A' Index	07-Jun	USc/lb	86.9	87.2	<1%	73.2	19%	chart
Sugar – Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, no.11 contract	07-Jun	USc/lb	14.0	15.2	-8%	18.8	-26%	chart
Wool – Eastern Market Indicator	01-Jun	Ac/kg clean	1,472	1,495	-2%	1,296	14%	chart
Wool – Western Market Indicator	26-May	Ac/kg clean	1,520	1,535	<1%	1,375	11%	chart
Selected domestic crop indicator prices
Milling Wheat – ASW1, track quote, Port Adelaide, SA	06-Jun	A$/t	204	198	3%	256	-20%	chart
Feed Wheat – General purpose, Sydney, NSW	07-Jun	A$/t	239	235	2%	268	-11%	chart
Feed Barley – Sydney, NSW	10-May	A$/t	214	214	0%	226	-5%	chart
Canola – Portland, Vic.	05-Jun	A$/t	503	510	-1%	535	-6%	chart
Grain Sorghum – Sydney, NSW	07-Jun	A$/t	272	272	0%	251	8%	chart
Selected domestic livestock indicator prices
Beef – Eastern Young Cattle Indicator	01-Jun	Ac/kg cwt	652	652	0%	568	15%	chart
Mutton – Mutton indicator (18-24 kg fat score 2-3), Vic	02-Jun	Ac/kg cwt	557	550	1%	377	48%	chart
Lamb – Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator	01-Jun	Ac/kg cwt	671	663	1%	593	13%	chart
Pig – Eastern Seaboard (60.1-75 kg), average of buyers & sellers	26-May	Ac/kg cwt	299	297	<1%	384	-22%	chart
Goat – Eastern States (12.1-16 kg)	05-Jun	Ac/kg cwt	656	656	0%	550	19%	chart
Live cattle – Light steers ex Darwin to Indonesia	20-May	Ac/kg lwt	320	320	0%	280	14%	chart
Live sheep – Live wether (Muchea WA saleyard) to Middle East	29-May	$/head	136	108	26%	na	na	chart
Global Dairy Trade weighted average pricesa
Dairy – Whole milk powder	06-Jun	US$/t	3,143	3,312	-5%	2,205	43%	chart
Dairy – Skim milk powder	06-Jun	US$/t	2,156	1,998	8%	1,867	15%	chart
Dairy – Cheddar cheese	06-Jun	US$/t	4,285	3,726	15%	2,669	61%	chart
Dairy – Anhydrous milk fat	06-Jun	US$/t	6,631	6,631	0%	3,444	93%	chart

^a Global Dairy Trade prices are updated twice monthly on the first and third Tuesday of each month.

Movements in selected fruit and vegetable prices
Data attribution