Weekly update - 8 November 2018

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Weekly ​Australian Climate,
Water and Agricultural Update

Key issues

  • During the week ending 7 November 2018 rainfall was recorded across large areas of central, southern and northern Australia
  • In cropping regions, rainfall totals of between 10 and 50 millimetres were recorded in southern New South Wales and South Australia. Falls of between 10 and 25 millimetres were recorded in parts of southern Victoria and Western Australia. For remaining cropping regions, little or no rainfall was recorded.
  • October 2018 was Australia’s fourth warmest October on record for the country as a whole; the national monthly mean temperature was 1.83 °C above average.
  • Overall, area-average rainfall in October 2018 was above average for Australia. Rainfall for the month was above average along the east coast of Australia and for much of Western Australia, the southwest of the Northern Territory and the west of South Australia.
  • October 2018 rainfall in cropping regions was generally average in central and southern New South Wales, much of Victoria, the Eyre Peninsula in South Australia and Western Australia. It was above average for most cropping regions in northern New South Wales, Queensland and eastern Western Australia.
  • Relative lower layer soil moisture in October  2018 was very much below average to below average across much of New South Wales, Victoria, south-western Queensland, parts of eastern South Australia, Tasmania, and parts of southern and northern Western Australia.
  • Despite generally average to above average October rainfall, serious to severe rainfall deficiencies persist across much of the south-eastern quarter of mainland Australia, and have expanded in central southern and eastern Victoria, and eastern South Australia.
  • During the next eight days, rainfall is expected across all states and territories, with the heaviest falls forecast for parts of the south-east, south-west and north of the country.
  • In cropping regions, rainfall of between 1 and 10 millimetres are expected across New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland, South Australia and Western Australia during the next 8 days.
  • Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) decreased during the week ending 8 November 2018 by 152 gigalitres (GL) to 10,947 GL and are at 48 per cent of total capacity.
  • Allocation prices in the southern Murray-Darling Basin increased in the week ending 8 November 2018 to $383 per ML. This is an increase of $19 from the same time last week.

Climate

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Rainfall this week

During the week ending 7 November 2018 rainfall was recorded across large areas of central, southern and northern Australia. Rainfall totals of between 10 and 50 millimetres were recorded across parts of southern and western New South Wales, southern and alpine regions in Victoria, parts of western and eastern Queensland, large areas of South Australia and parts of eastern and central Western Australia. Similar totals were recorded across Tasmania and large areas of the Northern Territory.

Higher rainfall totals in excess of 50 millimetres were recorded in isolated parts of southern New South Wales, northern South Australia and western Tasmania. The highest recorded weekly total was 93 millimetres at Mount Read, in western Tasmania.

In cropping regions, rainfall totals were highly variable. Falls of between 10 and 50 millimetres were recorded in southern New South Wales and South Australia. Falls of between 10 and 25 millimetres were recorded in parts of southern Victoria and Western Australia. For remaining cropping regions, little or no rainfall was recorded.

Rainfall analysis for the week ending 7 November 2018

Map showing weekly rainfall totals in Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2018, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 7/11/2018

Note: The rainfall analyses and associated maps utilise data contained in the Bureau of Meteorology climate database, the Australian Data Archive for Meteorology (ADAM). The analyses are initially produced automatically from real-time data with limited quality control. They are intended to provide a general overview of rainfall across Australia as quickly as possible after the observations are received. For further information go to Weekly Rainfall Update.

Monthly temperatures

October 2018 was an exceptionally warm month for Australia. Nationally it was Australia’s fourth warmest October on record at 1.83 °C above average. For Australia as a whole, overnight minimums were the second highest on record for October, some 1.81 °C warmer than average for the month. While, daytime maximums were the ninth-highest on record, with days 1.84 °C warmer than the long-term mean.

Maximum temperature deciles for October 2018

Map showing maximum temperature deciles for Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2018, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 1/11/2018

Minimum temperature deciles for October 2018

Map showing minimum temperature deciles for Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2018, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 1/11/2018

Maximum and minimum temperatures for October 2018 compared with temperature recorded for that period during the historical record (1900 to present). For further information go to Daily maximum temperature for Australia

Monthly rainfall

Overall, area-average rainfall in October 2018 was above average for Australia. Rainfall for the month was above average along the east coast of Australia. October 2018 rainfall was also above average for much of Western Australia, the southwest of the Northern Territory and the west of South Australia. In south-eastern Australia rainfall was severely deficient to below average for the south-east of South Australia, most of Victoria away from the north-west, and all of Tasmania. Rainfall was close to average across the remainder of the country

October 2018 rainfall in cropping regions was generally average in central and southern New South Wales, much of Victoria, the Eyre Peninsula in South Australia and Western Australia. It was above average for most cropping regions in northern New South Wales, Queensland and eastern Western Australia. In contrast, below average rainfall was recorded in parts of southern New South Wales, and central and eastern areas of South Australia.

Rainfall percentiles for October 2018

 

Source: Bureau of Meteorology

Note: Rainfall for October 2018 is compared with rainfall recorded for that period during the historical record (1900 to present). For further information, go to Australian Water Availability Project

Monthly soil moisture

Relative upper layer soil moisture in October 2018 was below average to very much below average across parts of southern New South Wales, most of Victoria, parts of south-eastern South Australia and Tasmania. Upper layer soil moisture was generally average to very much above average across the remainder of New South Wales, the remainder of South Australia, Queensland, South Australia, Western Australia and the Northern Territory.

In cropping regions, upper layer soil moisture was predominantly average in New South Wales, Victoria and western South Australia. It was generally above average to very much above average in cropping regions in Western Australia and Queensland. In eastern cropping regions in South Australia and most cropping region in Victoria relative upper layer soil moisture was generally below average.

Modelling upper layer soil moisture for October 2018

 

Source: Bureau of Meteorology (Australian Water Resources Assessment Landscape model)

Note: This map shows the levels of modelled upper layer soil moisture (0 to 10 centimetres) during October 2018. This map shows how modelled soil conditions during October 2018 compare with October conditions modelled over the reference period (1911 to 2015). Dark blue areas on the maps were much wetter in October 2018 than during the same period over the reference period. The dark red areas were much drier than during the reference period. The bulk of plant roots occur in the top 20 centimetres of the soil profile. Soil moisture in the upper layer of the soil profile is therefore the most appropriate indicator of the availability of water, particularly for germinating plants. The lower layer soil moisture is a larger, deeper store that is slower to respond to rainfall and tends to reflect accumulated rainfall events over longer time periods.

Relative lower layer soil moisture for October  2018 was very much below average to below average across much of New South Wales, Victoria, south-western Queensland, parts of eastern South Australia, Tasmania, and parts of southern and northern Western Australia. It was average to very much above average across much of northern and eastern Queensland, western South Australia, the remainder of Western Australia and the Northern Territory.

In cropping regions, lower layer soil moisture was generally very much below average to below average in New South Wales, Victoria, and eastern and central cropping regions in South Australia. It was generally average for most cropping regions in Queensland, Western Australia, and the Eyre Peninsula in South Australia.

Modelling lower layer soil moisture for October 2018

. 

Source: Bureau of Meteorology (Australian Water Resources Assessment Landscape model)

Note: This map shows the levels of modelled lower layer soil moisture (10 centimetres to 1 metre) during October 2018. This map shows how modelled soil conditions during June 2018 compare with October conditions modelled over the reference period (1911 to 2015). Dark blue areas on the maps were much wetter in October 2018 than during the same period over the reference period. The dark red areas were much drier than during the reference period. The bulk of plant roots occur in the top 20 centimetres of the soil profile. Soil moisture in the upper layer of the soil profile is therefore the most appropriate indicator of the availability of water, particularly for germinating plants. The lower layer soil moisture is a larger, deeper store that is slower to respond to rainfall and tends to reflect accumulated rainfall events over longer time periods.

Rainfall deficiencies

The rainfall deficiencies presented below are sourced from the Bureau of Meteorology’s monthly ‘Drought Statement’. As short to longer-term deficiencies become evident the Bureau of Meteorology monitors these events through their lifecycle – from emergence through to their dissipation – with the time-period of analysis each month increasing from a fixed starting point to the easing of the deficiencies.

For further information, go to Drought

For the year to date (1 January 2018 to 31 October 2018) rainfall deficiencies have decreased slightly in severity across the northern half of coastal New South Wales and in south-eastern Queensland following above average October rainfall. Despite generally average to above average October rainfall, serious to severe rainfall deficiencies persist across much of the south-eastern quarter of mainland Australia, and have expanded in central southern and eastern Victoria, and eastern South Australia.

Serious to severe rainfall deficiencies continue to persist at longer timescales. For the 19-months starting in April 2017, serious to severe rainfall deficiencies are evident across much of New South Wales, parts of eastern Victoria, large areas of eastern South Australia, south-western and central Queensland, and parts of western and southern Western Australia (Bureau of Meteorology ‘Drought Statement’, 2 November 2018).

Rainfall deficiencies for the 10-month period 1 January 2018 to 31 October 2018

 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2018, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 1/11/2018

Rainfall deficiencies for the 19-month period 1 April 2017 to 31 October 2018

 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2018, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 1/11/2018

Rainfall forecast for the next 8 days

During the next eight days, rainfall is expected across all states and territories, with the heaviest falls forecast for parts of the south-east, south-west and north of the country.

Rainfall totals of between 10 and 50 millimetres are forecast for parts of eastern New South Wales, eastern Victoria, parts of north-eastern Queensland, central and north-east of Western Australia, western Tasmania and the far north of the Northern Territory.
In cropping regions, rainfall of between 1 and 10 millimetres are expected across New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland, South Australia and Western Australia during the next 8 days.

This rainfall forecast is produced from computer models. As it contains no input from weather forecasters, it is important to check local forecasts and warnings issued by the Bureau of Meteorology.

Total forecast rainfall (mm) for the period 8 to 15 November 2018

Map of the total forecast rainfall for the next 8 days. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2018, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 8/11/2018

Commodities

Current indicators – 8 November 2018

IndicatorWeek endedUnitLatest pricePrice week priorWeekly changePrice 12 months priorYear on year changeChart

Selected world indicator prices

Australian Dollar – AUD/USD Exchange Rate07-NovUS$/A$0.720.711%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.0.77-6%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Wheat – US no. 2 hard red winter wheat, fob Gulf06-NovUS$/t237236<1%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.2208%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Coarse Grains – US no. 2 yellow corn, fob Gulf07-NovUS$/t1641593%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.1519%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Canola – Rapeseed, Europe, fob Hamburga06-NovUS$/t430431<1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.436-1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Cotton – Cotlook 'A' Index07-NovUSc/lb87.786.81%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.79.410%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Sugar – Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, no.11 contract07-NovUSc/lb13.213.7-4%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.14.6-10%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Wool – Eastern Market Indicator01-NovAc/kg clean1,8541,874-1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.1,62314%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Wool – Western Market Indicator02-NovAc/kg clean2,0052,033-1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.1,67420%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart

Selected domestic crop indicator prices

Milling Wheat – ASW1, track quote, Port Adelaide, SA06-NovA$/t377375<1%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.23163%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Feed Wheat – General purpose, Sydney, NSW07-NovA$/t450455-1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.25378%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Feed Barley – Sydney, NSW07-NovA$/t4354350%24677%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Canola – Portland, Vic.29-OctA$/t597nana53611%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Grain Sorghum – Sydney, NSW07-NovA$/t4104100%30933%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart

Selected domestic livestock indicator prices

Beef – Eastern Young Cattle Indicator25-OctAc/kg cwt5415194%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.566-4%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Mutton – Mutton indicator (18-24 kg fat score 2-3), Vic02-NovAc/kg cwt422467-10%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.451-6%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Lamb – Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator01-NovAc/kg cwt711788-10%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.62015%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Pig – Eastern Seaboard (60.1-75 kg), average of buyers & sellers26-OctAc/kg cwt2792751%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.2761%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Goat – Eastern States (12.1-16 kg)05-NovAc/kg cwt5385380%49110%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Live cattle – Light steers ex Darwin to Indonesia03-NovAc/kg lwt3103003%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.330-6%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Live sheep – Live wether (Muchea WA saleyard) to Middle East05-Nov$/head100108-7%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.105-5%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart

Global Dairy Trade weighted average pricesa

Dairy – Whole milk powder06-NovUS$/t2,6552,729-3%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.2,852-7%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Dairy – Skim milk powder06-NovUS$/t1,9971,9771%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.1,81810%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Dairy – Cheddar cheese06-NovUS$/t3,2503,404-5%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.4,001-19%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Dairy – Anhydrous milk fat06-NovUS$/t5,0445,106-1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.6,894-27%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart

a Global Dairy Trade prices are updated twice monthly on the first and third Tuesday of each month.

Selected world indicator prices
Selected domestic crop indicator prices
Selected domestic livestock indicator prices
Global dairy trade weighted average prices
Movements in selected fruit and vegetable prices
Data attribution

Water

Water storages, water markets and water allocations - current week

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Last reviewed:
08 Nov 2018