Weekly update - 9 November 2017

​​​​Weekly Australian Climate,
Water and Agricultural Update

Key issues

  • During the week ending 8 November 2017 rainfall totals between 5 and 50 millimetres were recorded in coastal and south-eastern parts of New South Wales and Queensland. Similar totals were recorded around the Gulf of Carpentaria in Queensland, in north-eastern Victoria, central and northern Western Australia, western Tasmania and northern parts of the Northern Territory.
  • For the week ending 7 November 2017 maximum temperatures were close to average across most of the country. They were below average (-2°C to -6°C) in southern Australia and above average (2°C to 6°C) in western parts of Western Australia.
  • At the five month timescale (June to October 2017) rainfall deficiencies have decreased in both extent and severity in Queensland, northern New South Wales and the Kimberley in Western Australia following above average rainfall during October.
  • The Australian Plague Locust Commission report that Australian plague locust densities identified during September and October 2017 are among the lowest spring population levels on record for these months. Population densities are expected to remain generally low in all regions of inland eastern Australia for the remainder of 2017.
  • For the next eight days, rainfall totals between 10 and 50 millimetres are forecast across a broad band of central Australia, as well as parts of south-eastern, western and north-eastern Australia.
  • Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) decreased during the week ending 9 November 2017 by 129 gigalitres (GL) to 16,043 GL and are at 71 per cent of total capacity.
  • Allocation prices in the southern Murray–Darling Basin increased in the week ending 9 November 2017 to $135 per ML. This is an increase of $4 from the same time last week.

Climate

[expand all]

Rainfall this week

During the week ending 8 November 2017 rainfall totals between 5 and 50 millimetres were recorded in coastal and south-eastern parts of New South Wales and Queensland. Similar totals were recorded around the Gulf of Carpentaria in Queensland, in north-eastern Victoria, central and northern Western Australia, western Tasmania and northern parts of the Northern Territory. Little to no rainfall was recorded across the rest of the country. The highest recorded weekly total was 125 millimetres at Ballina airport in north-eastern New South Wales.

Rainfall - week ending 8 November 2017

Map showing weekly rainfall totals in Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2017, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 8/11/2017

Note: The rainfall analyses and associated maps utilise data contained in the Bureau of Meteorology climate database, the Australian Data Archive for Meteorology (ADAM). The analyses are initially produced automatically from real-time data with limited quality control. They are intended to provide a general overview of rainfall across Australia as quickly as possible after the observations are received. For further information go to Weekly Rainfall Update.

Temperature anomalies this week

During the week ending 7 November 2017 maximum temperatures were close to average across most of the country. They were below average (-2°C to -6°C) in southern Australia and above average (2°C to 6°C) in western parts of Western Australia. Minimum temperatures were below average (-2°C to -4°C) in central Australia and across most of south-eastern Australia. They were 2°C to 6°C above average in western parts of Western Australia.

Maximum temperature anomalies - week ending 7 November 2017

Map showing maximum temperature anomalies in Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2017, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 7/11/2017

Minimum temperature anomalies - week ending 7 November 2017

Map showing minimum temperature anomalies in Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description.] 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2017, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 7/11/2017

Note: Spatial temperature analyses are based on historical weekly temperature data provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. These temperature anomaly maps show the departure of the maximum and minimum temperatures from their long-term averages. Temperature anomalies are calculated using high-resolution gridded datasets from 1911 onwards. For further information go to Daily maximum temperature for Australia.

Rainfall deficiencies

Compared to last month, deficiencies at the five month timescale (June to October 2017) have decreased in both extent and severity in Queensland, northern New South Wales and the Kimberley in Western Australia following above average rainfall during October.
At the five month timescale serious to severe rainfall deficiencies remain across southern and south-eastern Australia. Similar rainfall deficiencies are also present along the east coast of Tasmania and parts Western Australia in the Gascoyne and Pilbara (Bureau of Meteorology ‘Drought Statement’, 3 November 2017).

Rainfall deficiencies for the 5 month period 1 June to 31 October 2017

Map showing rainfall deficiencies in Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2017, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 02/11/2017

Australian Plague Locust

The Australian Plague Locust Commission (APLC) produces a monthly Locust Bulletin during the periods of locust activity (spring, summer and autumn). The bulletin gives regional summaries of the locust situation and weather events of potential significance for locust development. It also provides a forecast of likely developments for the next two months (or from autumn to spring) for the Australian plague locust (Chortoicetes terminifera), spur-throated locust (Austracris guttulosa), and the migratory locust (Locusta migratoria).

According to the APLC, Australian plague locust densities identified during September and October 2017 are among the lowest spring population levels on record for these months. Rainfall during winter and September was well below average over most of inland eastern Australia, and habitat conditions remained very dry. However, since the end of September there has been moderate–heavy rainfall in several regions, with some areas recording several significant rain events. This is likely to initiate low density locust breeding in numerous areas. Large population increases are unlikely during November and December, given the very low background spring population levels.

For the remainder of 2017 population densities are expected to remain generally low in all regions of inland eastern Australia. Breeding in areas that received heavy rainfall during October is likely to produce mostly low density nymphs during November. Fledging of nymphs in December would result in only moderate regional adult population increases. The probability of a summer nymph generation, which could result in significant population increases in January and February, will depend on the distribution of moderate–heavy rainfall during December. Given the current very low population densities, there is a low risk of widespread regional infestations developing during summer.

For further information, go to Australian Plague Locust Commission

Australian Plague Locust Distribution 1 to 31 October 2017

Map of the Australia Plague Locust distribution. Image provided by the Department of Agriculture and Water Resources. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

Densities estimated for areas of locust habitat, based on current surveys and reports from current and previous month.
©Commonwealth of Australia 2017, Department of Agriculture and Water Resources - Issued: 03/11/2017

Rainfall forecast for the next 8 days

Rainfall is forecast for a broad band of central Australia, as well as parts of south-eastern, western and north-eastern Australia during the next eight days. Totals between 10 and 50 millimetres are expected in the Northern Territory, central Western Australia, the western half of South Australia, north-eastern Victoria, south-eastern New South Wales, and isolated parts of central and northern Queensland. Higher totals (between 50 and 100 millimetres) are expected in southern parts of the Northern Territory, across the Top End and north-eastern coastal Queensland.

Total forecast rainfall (mm) for the period 9 to 16 November 2017

Map of the total forecast rainfall for the next 8 days. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

Source: ©Commonwealth of Australia 2017, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 9/11/2017

Water

[expand all]

Water availability

Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) decreased during the week ending  9 November 2017 by 129 gigalitres (GL) to 16,043 GL and are at 71 per cent of total capacity. This is 13 percentage points or 2,908 GL less than at the same time last year.

Visit the interactive Tableau data dashboard

Water storages in the Murray-Darling Basin (NSW, Victoria and Queensland)

Line graph showing water storages in the Murray–Darling Basin (NSW, Victoria and Queensland) from 2000 to 2017, measured as a percentage of the total storage of 22,598 gigalitres. 

Information on water available in dams used for irrigation the Murray–Darling Basin from 1 January 2001 to 9 November 2017 is shown above. The top horizontal (short dash) line indicates the storage level during a similar time last year. The bottom horizontal (long dash) line indicates the amount of ‘dead’ or unusable storage.

Water allocations

On  7 November 2017 NSW Department of Primary Industries – Water announced allocation increases of:

  •  4.5% for NSW Gwydir general security to 16%

The current water allocations for the 2017–18 water trading season for licence holders in New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia water systems are summarised in the following table and charts.

Water allocations in the Murray–Darling Basin (NSW, Victoria and South Australia)

Allocations at

9 November 2017

1 November 2017

New South Wales

General security

High security

General security

High security

NSW Murray

32%

97%

32%

97%

NSW Murrumbidgee

33%

95%

33%

95%

NSW Lower Darling

100%

100%

100%

100%

NSW Macquarie and Cudgegong

38%

100%

38%

100%

NSW Hunter

100%

100%

100%

100%

NSW Lachlan

2%

100%

2%

100%

NSW Lower Namoi

7%

100%

7%

100%

NSW Upper Namoi

100%

100%

100%

100%

NSW Gwydir

16%

100%

12%

100%

NSW Border Rivers

100%(a)/11.1%(b)

100%

100%(a)/11.1%(b)

100%

NSW Peel

100%

100%

100%

100%

Victoria

Low reliability

High reliability

Low reliability

High reliability

Victoria Murray

0%

100%

0%

100%

Victoria Goulburn

0%

93%

0%

93%

Victoria Campaspe

30%

100%

30%

100%

Victoria Loddon

0%

93%

0%

93%

Victoria Bullarook

100%

100%

100%

100%

Victoria Broken

0%

100%

0%

100%

South Australia

 

Class 3a/3b

 

Class 3a/3b

South Australia Murray

 

100%

 

100%

(a) General Security A class. (b) General Security B class

Select water allocation percentages in the southern Murray-Darling Basin

 

 

 

 

Water markets

Allocation prices in the southern Murray–Darling Basin increased in the week ending 9 November 2017 to $135 per ML. This is an increase of $4 from the same time last week. This contrasts with an average price of $138 in October across the whole southern MDB, and $78 during the same time last year.

Prices in the Murrumbidgee continue to remain higher since the closure of trade into the valley, now around ten dollars per megalitre more than the rest of the southern connected system. This indicates it is likely to be some time before trade reopens.

Allocation trade activity in the southern Murray–Darling Basin

Allocation trade activity in the southern Murray-Darling Basin. The trades shown reflect market activity and do not encompass all register trades. The price line reflects locally fitted price values for the entire southern Murray-Darling Basin.  

The trades shown reflect estimated market activity and do not encompass all register trades. The price line reflects locally fitted price values for the entire southern Murray–Darling Basin. Data shown is current until Thursday 9 October 2017. Trade activity is shown as colour density.

Allocation trade prices, southern Murray–Darling Basin trade zones

 

Southern MDB

Victoria Goulburn

SA Murray

NSW Murrumbidgee

Victoria Murray

NSW Murray

Current week: 03/11/17 – 09/11/17

$135.07

$98.24

NA

$148.52

$136.24

$134.90

Last week: 27/10/17 – 02/11/17

$131.43

$103.60

$147.92

$129.42

$159.44

$145.18

October 2017

$138.01

$114.28

$176.71

$137.15

$143.92

$148.27

October 2016

$77.61

$88.96

$76.51

$50.38

$103.94

$76.94

Commodities

Current indicators – 9 November 2017

IndicatorWeek endedUnitLatest pricePrice week priorWeekly changePrice 12 months priorYear on year changeChart

Selected world indicator prices

Australian Dollar – AUD/USD Exchange Rate08-NovUS$/A$0.770.770%0.770% chart
Wheat – US no. 2 hard red winter wheat, fob Gulf07-NovUS$/t2202152%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.19115%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Coarse Grains – US no. 2 yellow corn, fob Gulf08-NovUS$/t1511491%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.156-3%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Canola – Rapeseed, Europe, fob Hamburga07-NovUS$/t4364282%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.435<1%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Cotton – Cotlook 'A' Index08-NovUSc/lb79.479.40%77.52%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Sugar – Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, no.11 contract08-NovUSc/lb14.614.60%21.9-33%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Wool – Eastern Market Indicator02-NovAc/kg clean1,6231,5783%1,30325%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Wool – Western Market Indicator03-NovAc/kg clean1,6741,6342%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.1,39320%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart

Selected domestic crop indicator prices

Milling Wheat – ASW1, track quote, Port Adelaide, SA07-NovA$/t2312195%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.20214%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Feed Wheat – General purpose, Sydney, NSW08-NovA$/t2582580%2494%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Feed Barley – Sydney, NSW08-NovA$/t2512510%17940%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Canola – Portland, Vic.06-NovA$/t5365360%538<1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Grain Sorghum – Sydney, NSW02-OctA$/t3043040%23132%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart

Selected domestic livestock indicator prices

Beef – Eastern Young Cattle Indicator02-NovAc/kg cwt5755662%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.666-14%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Mutton – Mutton indicator (18-24 kg fat score 2-3), Vic10-NovAc/kg cwt4514510%37321%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Lamb – Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator02-NovAc/kg cwt620623<1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.54913%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Pig – Eastern Seaboard (60.1-75 kg), average of buyers & sellers27-OctAc/kg cwt276277<1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.378-27%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Goat – Eastern States (12.1-16 kg)06-NovAc/kg cwt4914910%589-17%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Live cattle – Light steers ex Darwin to Indonesia28-OctAc/kg lwt3303203%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.nana chart
Live sheep – Live wether (Muchea WA saleyard) to Middle East06-Nov$/head105108-3%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.9017%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart

Global Dairy Trade weighted average pricesa

Dairy – Whole milk powder07-NovUS$/t2,8523,014-5%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.3,317-14%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Dairy – Skim milk powder07-NovUS$/t1,8181,7971%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.2,329-22%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Dairy – Cheddar cheese07-NovUS$/t4,0014,107-3%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.3,33220%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Dairy – Anhydrous milk fat07-NovUS$/t6,8946,841<1%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.5,14634%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart

a Global Dairy Trade prices are updated twice monthly on the first and third Tuesday of each month.

Movements in selected fruit and vegetable prices
Data attribution

​​ ​​
Last reviewed:
09 Nov 2017