Weekly update - 10 August 2017

During the week ending 9 August 2017 widespread rainfall was recorded across southern Australia. Totals between 5 and 50 millimetres were recorded in southern Western Australia, southern and eastern South Australia, and across most of Victoria and New South Wales. Similar totals were recorded in parts of eastern Queensland. Rainfall totals exceeded 50 millimetres in far south-western Western Australia, southern South Australia, northern Tasmania, and alpine regions of Victoria and New South Wales The highest recorded weekly total was 156 millimetres at Falls Creek in the Victorian Alps.

These falls have been particularly timely across parts of the northern and central wheatbelt in Western Australia, northern agricultural areas in South Australia and parts of central and southern New South Wales, which had all recorded below average falls during June and July. The heavy falls have boosted soil moisture levels and are likely to provide improved prospects for moisture-stressed crops and pastures. In many areas August rainfall totals are now close to the monthly average for August, and upper soil moisture is very much above average.

The rainfall analyses and associated maps utilise data contained in the Bureau of Meteorology climate database, the Australian Data Archive for Meteorology (ADAM). The analyses are initially produced automatically from real-time data with limited quality control. They are intended to provide a general overview of rainfall across Australia as quickly as possible after the observations are received.

Rainfall - week ending 9 August 2017

©Commonwealth of Australia 2017, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 9/08/2017

During the week ending 8 August 2017 maximum temperatures were close to average for most of Australia. Parts of south-eastern and north-western Australia recorded maximum temperatures between 2°C and 4°C below average. Maximum temperatures were between 2°C and 4°C above average in parts of eastern Queensland. Minimum temperatures were above average (2°C to 4°C) in north-eastern Australia, and below average (-4°C to -8°C) in western and north-western Australia. Minimum temperatures were close to average for the remainder of Australia.

Maximum temperature anomalies - week ending 8 August 2017

©Commonwealth of Australia 2017, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 8/08/2017

Minimum temperature anomalies - week ending 8 August 2017

©Commonwealth of Australia 2017, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 8/08/2017

Note: Spatial temperature analyses are based on historical weekly temperature data provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. These temperature anomaly maps show the departure of the maximum and minimum temperatures from their long-term averages. Temperature anomalies are calculated using high-resolution gridded datasets from 1911 onwards. For further information go to Daily maximum temperature for Australia.

For the five month period from March to July 2017, large areas of Western Australia recorded lowest on record rainfall. Rainfall deficiencies persist on the Eyre, Yorke and Fleurieu peninsulas in South Australia. Deficiencies also remain in West Gippsland and adjacent parts of north-eastern Victoria.

In Tasmania, rainfall deficiencies for the period March to July 2017 have decreased in spatial extent but increased slightly in severity when compared to the four month period (March to June 2017). Rainfall deficiencies have decreased across the southern half of the Northern Territory and western Queensland following a wetter than normal July in these areas (Bureau of Meteorology ‘Drought Statement’, 3 August 2017).

Rainfall deficiencies for the period 1 March to 31 July 2017

©Commonwealth of Australia 2017, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 03/08/2017

Rainfall is expected to be restricted to southern parts of the country during the next eight days. Totals between 5 and 50 millimetres are forecast for south-western Western Australia, south-eastern South Australia, most of Victoria, and alpine regions of New South Wales. Rainfall totals are forecast to exceed 150 millimetres in western Tasmania.

Total forecast rainfall (mm) for the period 10 to 17 August 2017

Source: ©Commonwealth of Australia 2017, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 10/07/2017

Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) increased during the week ending 10 August 2017 by 76 gigalitres (GL) to 15,783 GL and are at 70 per cent of total capacity. This is 12 percentage points or 2,655 GL more than at the same time last year.

Water storages in the Murray-Darling Basin (NSW, Victoria and Queensland)

Information on irrigation water available in the Murray–Darling Basin from 1 January 2001 to 10 August 2017 is shown above. The top horizontal (short dash) line indicates the storage level during a similar time last year. The bottom horizontal (long dash) line indicates the amount of ‘dead’ or unusable storage.

The current water allocations for the 2017–18 water trading season for licence holders in New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia water systems are summarised in the following table. NSW Department of Primary Industries announced an 11 per cent starting allocation for general security entitlements in Gwydir and a 7 per cent starting allocation for general security entitlements in Lower Namoi.

(a) General Security A class. (b) General Security B class

Allocation prices in the southern Murray–Darling Basin continued to increase in the week up to 10 August 2017 in most systems. Average prices across the whole southern system climbed to $143. This is an increase of $17 or 14 per cent from the same time last week. This contrasts with an average price of $125 in July across the whole southern MDB.

Allocation trade activity in the southern Murray–Darling Basin

The trades shown reflect market activity and do not encompass all register trades. The price line reflects locally fitted price values for the entire southern Murray-Darling Basin. Data shown is current until Thursday 10 August, 2017.

Sugar

The world sugar indicator price (Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, no. 11 contract) declined by 5 per cent to average US14 cents a pound in the week ending 9 August 2017. This followed an increase in the supply of sugar available for export and weaker import demand. Sugar production in Brazil, Australia and Thailand rose by 28 per cent to 17.4 million tonnes in the fortnight to 16 July 2017. Chinese sugar imports declined by 24 per cent to 1.9 million tonnes (refined) in the first nine months of 2016–17 marketing year (October to September), compared with the same period in the previous year.

Crop exports

Exports of major crops increased substantially in 2016–17. The Australian Bureau of Statistics released June 2017 Australian export data on 4 August 2017. In 2016–17, Australia exported:

• 22.1 million tonnes of wheat, valued at $6.1 billion. In 2016–17 the volume and value of exports increased 40 and 19 per cent respectively, compared with 2015–16.
• 9.5 million tonnes of barley, valued at $2.4 billion. In 2016–17 the volume and value of exports increased 74 and 36 per cent respectively, compared with 2015–16.
• 3.6 million tonnes of canola, valued at $2.1 billion. In 2016–17 the volume and value of exports increased 85 and 94 per cent respectively, compared with 2015–16.
• 2.0 million tonnes of chickpeas valued at $1.9 billion. In 2016–17 the volume and value of exports increased 74 and 90 per cent respectively, compared with 2015–16.

Value of major crop exports by month, July 2015 to June 2017

Note: Merchandise trade data subject to revision by the ABS as more complete and accurate information becomes available. 2016–17 trade data may be revised until February 2018.
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, International Trade in Goods and Services, Australia, April 2017 (cat. no. 5368.0)

Indian wheat and chickpea imports

India is a large importer of Australian wheat in years when its domestic supplies of high-quality milling wheat are insufficient to meet demand. This occurred in 2016–17. As a result, the Indian Government reduced the wheat import duty from 25 per cent to 10 per cent in September 2016 before eliminating it completely in December 2016. These changes were driven by a domestic shortage of milling quality wheat following a lower-quality harvest and drawdown in stocks. Total wheat imports into India increased substantially in 2016-17, 44 per cent of which was sourced from Australia. The Indian government reinstated the wheat import duty in March 2017 following expectations of a larger and better quality domestic harvest in 2017.

India is the world’s largest chickpea producer and consumer and often supplements domestic supplies with chickpea imports, mostly from Australia. Following consecutive years of unfavourable seasonal conditions, import demand and international prices have been high. Australian chickpea exports to India increased by almost 90 per cent in 2016–17 to a record $1.1 billion. The export unit value for Australian chickpeas was $975 a tonne in 2016–17, the highest in more than 20 years.

Canola exports

In 2016–17 the value of Australian canola exports to the European Union increased by 91 per cent to $1.87 billion. EU demand increased for canola meal for livestock feed and canola oil for biodiesel production. The EU share of Australia canola exports, by value, was 88 per in 2016–17, steady from 89 per cent in 2015–16 but significantly higher than the 41 per cent in 2014–15.

Indicator	Week ended	Unit	Latest price	Price week prior	Weekly change	Price 12 months prior	Year on year change	Chart
Selected world indicator prices
Australian Dollar – AUD/USD Exchange Rate	09-Aug	US$/A$	0.79	0.8	-1%	0.76	4%	chart
Wheat – US no. 2 hard red winter wheat, fob Gulf	08-Aug	US$/t	209	218	-4%	191	9%	chart
Coarse Grains – US no. 2 yellow corn, fob Gulf	09-Aug	US$/t	155	153	1%	153	1%	chart
Canola – Rapeseed, Europe, fob Hamburg	08-Aug	US$/t	425	424	<1%	401	6%	chart
Cotton – Cotlook 'A' Index	09-Aug	USc/lb	80.7	82.6	-2%	83.9	-4%	chart
Sugar – Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, no.11 contract	09-Aug	USc/lb	14.0	14.7	-5%	20.1	-30%	chart
Wool – Eastern Market Indicatora	13-Jul	Ac/kg clean	1,522	1,524	<1%	1,311	16%	chart
Wool – Western Market Indicatora	14-Jul	Ac/kg clean	1,570	1,561	<1%	1,423	10%	chart
Selected domestic crop indicator prices
Milling Wheat – ASW1, track quote, Port Adelaide, SA	08-Aug	A$/t	227	231	-2%	225	<1%	chart
Feed Wheat – General purpose, Sydney, NSW	09-Aug	A$/t	262	270	-3%	241	9%	chart
Feed Barley – Sydney, NSW	09-Aug	A$/t	246	251	-2%	193	27%	chart
Canola – Portland, Vic.	07-Aug	A$/t	505	502	<1%	487	4%	chart
Grain Sorghum – Sydney, NSW	09-Aug	A$/t	309	309	0%	224	38%	chart
Selected domestic livestock indicator prices
Beef – Eastern Young Cattle Indicator	03-Aug	Ac/kg cwt	574	584	-2%	674	-15%	chart
Mutton – Mutton indicator (18-24 kg fat score 2-3), Vic	04-Aug	Ac/kg cwt	392	413	-5%	395	<1%	chart
Lamb – Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator	03-Aug	Ac/kg cwt	596	576	3%	644	-7%	chart
Pig – Eastern Seaboard (60.1-75 kg), average of buyers & sellers	28-Jun	Ac/kg cwt	274	276	<1%	377	-27%	chart
Goat – Eastern States (12.1-16 kg)	31-Jul	Ac/kg cwt	647	647	0%	574	13%	chart
Live cattle – Light steers ex Darwin to Indonesia	20-May	Ac/kg lwt	320	320	0%	280	14%	chart
Live sheep – Live wether (Muchea WA saleyard) to Middle East	31-Jul	$/head	127	115	10%	93	37%	chart
Global Dairy Trade weighted average pricesa
Dairy – Whole milk powder	01-Aug	US$/t	3,343	3,114	7%	2,265	48%	chart
Dairy – Skim milk powder	01-Aug	US$/t	1,966	2,024	-3%	1,965	<1%	chart
Dairy – Cheddar cheese	01-Aug	US$/t	3,932	4,112	-4%	2,889	36%	chart
Dairy – Anhydrous milk fat	01-Aug	US$/t	6,289	6,577	-4%	3,797	66%	chart

^a The Australian Wool Exchange is on a three-week recess.
^b Global Dairy Trade prices are updated twice monthly on the first and third Tuesday of each month.

Movements in selected fruit and vegetable prices
Data attribution