Weekly update - 11 April 2019

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Weekly ​Australian Climate,
Water and Agricultural Update

Key issues

  • During the week ending 10 April 2019 rainfall was recorded across northern Australia and Tasmania, and isolated parts of southern and eastern Australia.
  • In cropping regions, rainfall of between 5 and 10 millimetres was recorded across central Western Australia during the week ending 10 April 2019. Little to no rainfall was recorded across cropping regions in New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland, South Australia and remaining cropping regions in Western Australia.
  • For the week ending 9 April 2019, maximum and minimum temperatures were generally above average across much of the country.
  • The latest rainfall outlook released by the Bureau of Meteorology indicates that for most of the country there are roughly equal chances of a wetter or drier than average May. A drier than average May is more likely for isolated parts of eastern and southern Australia. In contrast, inland areas of Western Australia and isolated parts of northern Australia have an increased chance of being wetter than usual.
  • The rainfall outlook for May to July 2019 indicates that there are roughly equal chances of a wetter or drier three months across most of Australia. A drier than average three months is more likely for across large areas of eastern Australia and isolated areas of southern Western Australia
  • During the next eight days, little to no rainfall is expected across much of mainland Australia. Rainfall is likely to be restricted to the west, and the far north, south and east of mainland Australia, and Tasmania.
  • In cropping regions, rainfall of between 1 and 5 millimetres is expected across much of Western Australia, South Australia and south-western Victoria. Little to no rainfall is expected across cropping regions in New South Wales, Queensland and the remainder of Victoria.
  • Water storage levels in the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) decreased between 3 April and 9 April 2019 by 87 gigalitres (GL). Current volume of water held in storage is 8,517 GL which represents 34 per cent of total capacity. This is 36 percent or 4,779 GL less than at the same time last year.
  • Allocation prices in the southern Murray-Darling Basin decreased from $486 per ML in the week ending 25 March 2019 to $442 per ML in the week ending 1 April 2019.

Climate

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Rainfall this week

During the week ending 10 April 2019 rainfall was recorded across northern Australia and Tasmania, and isolated parts of southern and eastern Australia.

Rainfall totals of between 10 and 25 millimetres were recorded across parts of coastal southern New South Wales, southern Victoria, northern and isolated parts of coastal Queensland, isolated parts of northern and southern Western Australia, Tasmania and the north of the Northern Territory. Higher rainfall totals in excess of 50 millimetres were also recorded in the Cape York Peninsula and north-eastern Queensland, the far north of Western Australia, western Tasmania and the north of the Northern Territory.

In cropping regions, rainfall of between 5 and 10 millimetres was recorded across central Western Australia during the week ending 10 April 2019. Little to no rainfall was recorded across cropping regions in New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland, South Australia and remaining cropping regions in Western Australia.

Rainfall analysis for the week ending 10 April 2019

Map showing weekly rainfall totals in Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2019, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 10/04/2019

Note: The rainfall analyses and associated maps utilise data contained in the Bureau of Meteorology climate database, the Australian Data Archive for Meteorology (ADAM). The analyses are initially produced automatically from real-time data with limited quality control. They are intended to provide a general overview of rainfall across Australia as quickly as possible after the observations are received. For further information go to Weekly Rainfall Update.

Temperature anomalies this week

For the week ending 9  April 2019, maximum and minimum temperatures were generally above average across much of the country. Temperatures of 2°C to 10°C above average maximum were recorded across large parts of southern, central and western Australia. Minimum temperatures were 2°C to 8°C above average across vast areas of central Australia, and parts of western and eastern Australia. Maximum temperatures were -2°C to -4°C below average in isolated parts of the north of the Northern Territory. Average (- 2°C to 2°C) minimum and maximum temperatures were recorded across the remainder of the country.

Maximum temperature anomalies for the week ending 9 April 2019

Map showing maximum temperature anomalies for Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2019, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 10/04/2019

Minimum temperature anomalies for the week ending 9 April 2019

Map showing minimum temperature anomalies for Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2019, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 10/04/2019

Note: Spatial temperature analyses are based on historical weekly temperature data provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. These temperature anomaly maps show the departure of the maximum and minimum temperatures from the average over the 1961 to 1990 reference period. For further information go to Daily maximum temperature for Australia.

Mid-month National Climate Outlook

The rainfall and temperature outlooks presented here show the likelihood, represented as a percentage, of experiencing wetter or drier (and warmer or cooler) than median climatic conditions for the given outlook periods. These climate outlooks are generated by ACCESS–S (Australian Community Climate Earth-System Simulator–Seasonal). ACCESS–S is the Bureau of Meteorology's dynamical (physics-based) weather and climate model used for monthly, seasonal and longer-lead climate outlooks.

For further information, go to About the climate outlooks

Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean are warmer than average and there is a reasonable chance that El Niño will develop during autumn 2019. El Niño typically results in reduced rainfall for southern Australia during autumn and reduced rainfall for eastern Australia during winter and spring.

Other climate influences relevant to this latest outlook relate to the temperature of the oceans surrounding Australia. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is forecast to remain neutral through the forecast period. This means the IOD has little influence on this outlook. The ACCESS–S climate model also indicates that pressure over the Tasman Sea is likely to be higher than normal. This increases the chance of dry and warm weather over eastern Australia.

The latest rainfall outlook released by the Bureau of Meteorology indicates that for most of the country there are roughly equal chances of a wetter or drier than average May. A drier than average May is more likely for isolated parts of eastern and southern Australia. In contrast, inland areas of Western Australia and isolated parts of northern Australia have an increased chance of being wetter than usual (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 11 April 2019).

Chance of exceeding the median rainfall May 2019

 

The rainfall outlook for May to July 2019 indicates that there are roughly equal chances of a wetter or drier three months across most of Australia. A wetter than average three months is more likely for isolated parts of northern Queensland, inland areas of Western Australia and northern parts of the Northern Territory. In contrast, there is an increased chance of a drier than average three months across large areas of eastern Australia and isolated areas of southern Western Australia (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 11 April 2019).

Chance of exceeding the median rainfall May to July 2019

 

The temperature outlook for May to July 2019 indicates that daytime temperatures are more likely to be warmer than average for much of the country, with a very high chance ( greater than 80%) across eastern and northern Australia. Night-time temperatures are also likely to be warmer than average for Australia (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 11 April 2019).

Chance of exceeding the median maximum temperature May to July 2019

 

Chance of exceeding the median minimum temperature May to July 2019

 

Rainfall forecast for the next 8 days

During the next eight days, little to no rainfall is expected across much of mainland Australia. Rainfall is likely to be restricted to the west, and the far north, south and east of mainland Australia, and Tasmania.

Rainfall totals of between 10 and 50 millimetres are forecast for parts of coastal New South Wales, northern and southern Queensland, north-western Western Australia, western Tasmania and the north-east of the Northern Territory. Heavier falls in excess of 50 millimetres are forecast for parts of north-eastern Queensland.

In cropping regions, rainfall of between 1 and 5 millimetres is expected across much of Western Australia, South Australia and south-western Victoria. Little to no rainfall is expected across cropping regions in New South Wales, Queensland and the remainder of Victoria.

This rainfall forecast is produced from computer models. As the model outputs are not altered by weather forecasters, it is important to check local forecasts and warnings issued by the Bureau of Meteorology.

Total forecast rainfall (mm) for the period 11 April to 18 April 2019

Map of the total forecast rainfall for the next 8 days. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2019, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 11/04/2019

Commodities

Current indicators – 11 April 2019

IndicatorWeek endedUnitLatest pricePrice week priorWeekly changePrice 12 months priorYear on year changeChart

Selected world indicator prices

Australian Dollar – AUD/USD Exchange Rate10-AprUS$/A$0.710.710%0.77-8%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Wheat – US no. 2 hard red winter wheat, fob Gulf09-AprUS$/t221222<1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.245-10%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Coarse Grains – US no. 2 yellow corn, fob Gulf10-AprUS$/t1641640%176-7%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Canola – Rapeseed, Europe, fob Hamburg09-AprUS$/t407404<1%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.427-5%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Cotton – Cotlook 'A' Index10-AprUSc/lb87.586.51%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.91.7-5%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Sugar – Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, no.11 contract10-AprUSc/lb12.612.60%12.32%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Wool – Eastern Market Indicator04-AprAc/kg clean1,9431,947<1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.1,7769%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Wool – Western Market Indicator05-AprAc/kg clean2,0952,099<1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.1,88411%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart

Selected domestic crop indicator prices

Milling Wheat – ASW1, track quote, Port Adelaide, SA09-AprA$/t302300<1%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.24225%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Feed Wheat – General purpose, Sydney, NSW10-AprA$/t4024020%28044%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Feed Barley – Sydney, NSW10-AprA$/t3653650%27931%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Canola – Portland, Vic.29-OctA$/t597nana53611%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Grain Sorghum – Sydney, NSW10-AprA$/t3803800%410-7%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart

Selected domestic livestock indicator prices

Beef – Eastern Young Cattle Indicator04-AprAc/kg cwt5054942%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.540-6%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Mutton – Mutton indicator (18–24 kg fat score 2–3), Vic05-AprAc/kg cwt4954647%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.4588%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Lamb – Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator04-AprAc/kg cwt6976832%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.60016%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Pig – Eastern Seaboard (60.1–75 kg), average of buyers & sellers29-MarAc/kg cwt340339<1%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.26926%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Goat – Eastern States (12.1–16 kg)08-AprAc/kg cwt6266260%47233%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Live cattle – Light steers ex Darwin to Indonesia06-AprAc/kg lwt2802800%310-10%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Live sheep – Live wether (Muchea WA saleyard) to Middle East04-Mar$/head105 105 0%124-15%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart

Global Dairy Trade (GDT) weighted average prices a

Dairy – Whole milk powder03-AprUS$/t3,2873,317<1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.3,278<1%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Dairy – Skim milk powder03-AprUS$/t2,4682,4053%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.1,84933%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Dairy – Cheddar cheese03-AprUS$/t4,2484,0365%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.3,67915%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Dairy – Anhydrous milk fat03-AprUS$/t5,8675,8674%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.5,8061%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart

a Global Dairy Trade prices are updated twice monthly on the first and third Tuesday of each month.

Selected world indicator prices
Selected domestic crop indicator prices
Selected domestic livestock indicator prices
Global dairy trade weighted average prices
Movements in selected fruit and vegetable prices
Data attribution

Water

Water storages, water markets and water allocations - current week

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Last reviewed:
11 Apr 2019