Weekly update - 11 October 2018

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Weekly ​Australian Climate,
Water and Agricultural Update

Key issues

  • During the week ending 10 October 2018 little to no rainfall was recorded across much of mainland Australia, with falls mainly restricted to centre, east, far south and south west of the country. Rainfall totals of between 10 and 50 millimetres were recorded across large areas of New South Wales, western and eastern Victoria, much of south-eastern Queensland, and south-western Western Australia. Similar totals were recorded across scattered areas in South Australia and the Northern Territory.
  • In cropping regions, rainfall totals were highly variable. Falls of between 10 and 50 millimetres were recorded in central and northern New South Wales, western Victoria, southern and eastern areas in Queensland and southern and eastern parts of Western Australia. For remaining cropping regions, little or no rainfall was recorded.
  • For the week ending 9 October 2018, maximum temperatures were above average (2°C to 4°C) across parts of northern and south-eastern Australia. Maximum temperatures were below average  (-2°C to -6°C) in the south of Western Australia and the west of South Australia. Minimum temperatures were generally average across much of the country.
  • A drier than average November is more likely across large areas of northern, eastern and southern Australia.
  • The mid-month climate outlook for November 2018 to January 2019 indicates that a drier than average three months is more likely for southern and western New South Wales, Victoria, most of Queensland, eastern South Australia, south-west Western Australia, Tasmania and isolates areas of Western Australia and the Northern Territory.
  • During the next eight days, rainfall is expected to be restricted mainly central and coastal New South Wales, Victoria, much of south-eastern Queensland, eastern and southern Victoria, the far south-east of South Australia, south-western Western Australia, Tasmania and the far north of the Northern Territory.
  • In cropping regions, rainfall of between 15 and 100 millimetres is expected in Queensland. Rainfall of between 10 and 50 millimetres are forecast for New South Wales cropping regions. For Victoria and Western Australia, falls of between 5 and 25 millimetres are expected. Lower totals of between 1 and 10 millimetres are forecast in South Australia.
  • Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) decreased during the week ending 11 October 2018 by 204 gigalitres (GL) to 11,585 GL and are at 51 per cent of total capacity. This is a 22 percentage points or 4,918 GL less than at the same time last year.
  • Allocation prices in the southern Murray-Darling Basin increased in the week ending 11 October 2018 to $354 per ML. This is an increase of $3 from the same time last week.

Climate

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Rainfall this week

During the week ending 10 October 2018 little to no rainfall was recorded across much of mainland Australia, where falls did occur, these were mainly restricted to the centre, east, far south and south west of the country. Rainfall totals of between 10 and 50 millimetres were recorded across large areas of New South Wales, western and eastern Victoria, much of south-eastern Queensland, and south-western Western Australia. Similar totals were recorded across scattered areas in South Australia and the Northern Territory.

Higher rainfall totals in excess of 50 millimetres were recorded in isolated parts of south-eastern Queensland and the central coast of New South Wales. The highest recorded weekly total was 297 millimetres at Careys Peak, in the Barrington Tops region of New South Wales.

In cropping regions, rainfall totals were highly variable. Falls of between 10 and 50 millimetres were recorded in central and northern New South Wales, western Victoria, southern and eastern areas in Queensland and southern and eastern parts of Western Australia. For remaining cropping regions, little or no rainfall was recorded.

Rainfall analysis for the week ending 10 October 2018

Map showing weekly rainfall totals in Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2018, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 10/10/2018

Note: The rainfall analyses and associated maps utilise data contained in the Bureau of Meteorology climate database, the Australian Data Archive for Meteorology (ADAM). The analyses are initially produced automatically from real-time data with limited quality control. They are intended to provide a general overview of rainfall across Australia as quickly as possible after the observations are received. For further information go to Weekly Rainfall Update.

Temperature anomalies this week

For the week ending 9 October 2018, maximum temperatures were above average (2°C to 4°C) across parts of northern and south-eastern Australia. Maximum temperatures were below average  (-2°C to -6°C) in the south of Western Australia and the west of South Australia. Minimum temperatures were generally average across much of the country. Minimum temperatures were above average (2°C to 6°C) in parts of western New South Wales and Victoria, north-western South Australia, southern Northern Territory and Western Australia.

Maximum temperature anomalies for the week ending 9 October 2018

Map showing maximum temperature anomalies for Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2018, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 10/10/2018

Minimum temperature anomalies for the week ending 9 October 2018

Map showing minimum temperature anomalies for Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2018, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 10/10/2018

Note: Spatial temperature analyses are based on historical weekly temperature data provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. These temperature anomaly maps show the departure of the maximum and minimum temperatures from the average over the 1961 to 1990 reference period. For further information go to Daily maximum temperature for Australia.

Mid-month National Climate Outlook

The rainfall and temperature outlooks presented here show the likelihood, represented as a percentage, of experiencing wetter or drier (and warmer or cooler) than median climatic conditions for the given outlook periods. These climate outlooks are generated by ACCESS–S (Australian Community Climate Earth-System Simulator–Seasonal). ACCESS–S is the Bureau of Meteorology's dynamical (physics-based) weather and climate model used for monthly, seasonal and longer-lead climate outlooks. Prior to August 2018, climate outlooks were produced by the Bureau's earlier model, POAMA.

For further information, go to About the outlook

Signs of an emerging El Niño are increasing. Likewise, in the Indian Ocean, a positive Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) event is likely underway. The Bureau of Meteorology’s ENSO Outlook has been raised to El Niño ALERT. A positive IOD and El Niño in spring increases the likelihood of a dry and warm end to the southern wet season, and a drier than usual start to the northern wet season. It also raises the risk of heatwaves and bushfire weather in the south but lowers the risk of Tropical Cyclones in the north.

The increased potential for El Niño and a positive IOD is influencing the Bureau of Meteorology’s  November–January climate outlook, with model outputs indicating parts of eastern and southern Australia are likely to be drier than average, and nation-wide days and nights are very likely to be warmer than average.

A drier than average November is more likely across much of western and central New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland, central and eastern South Australia, parts of southern and northern Western Australia, Tasmania and the Northern Territory. For the remainder of the country there are roughly equal chances of a wetter or drier than average November (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 11 October 2018).

Chance of exceeding the median rainfall November 2018

 

The rainfall outlook for November 2018 to January 2019 indicates that a drier than average three months is more likely for southern and western New South Wales, Victoria, most of Queensland, eastern South Australia, south-west Western Australia, Tasmania and isolates areas of Western Australia and the Northern Territory. There is no strong tendency towards either wetter or drier than average conditions for much of remainder of the country (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 11 October 2018).

Much of eastern and southern mainland Australia have been very dry and warm since the start of the year. The Bureau of Meteorology’s rainfall outlook for November 2018 to January 2019 indicates that many areas that are current experiencing drought conditions are unlikely to see above average rainfall in the coming three months.

Chance of exceeding the median rainfall November 2018 to January 2019

 

The temperature outlook for November 2018 to January 2019 indicates that daytime temperatures are more likely to be warmer than average for Australia. Night-time temperatures are also likely to be warmer than average for much of the country, with the exception of south-east Western Australia, southern South Australia and western Victoria, where the chances of warmer or cooler nights are roughly equal (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 11 October 2018).

Chance of exceeding the median maximum temperature November to January 2018

 

Chance of exceeding the median minimum temperature November to January 2018

 

Rainfall forecast for the next 8 days

During the next eight days, rainfall is expected to be restricted mainly to the east, south and far north of Australia. The forecast suggests there will be little to no rainfall across the remainder of the country.

Rainfall totals of between 10 and 50 millimetres are forecast for central and coastal New South Wales, Victoria, much of south-eastern Queensland, eastern and southern Victoria, the far south-east of South Australia, south-western Western Australia, Tasmania and the far north of the Northern Territory. Heaver falls in excess of 50 millimetres are expected across parts of north-eastern New South Wales and eastern Queensland.

In cropping regions, rainfall of between 15 and 100 millimetres is expected in Queensland. Rainfall of between 10 and 50 millimetres are forecast for New South Wales cropping regions. For Victoria and Western Australia, falls of between 5 and 25 millimetres are expected. Lower totals of between 1 and 10 millimetres are forecast in South Australia.

This rainfall forecast is produced from computer models. As it contains no input from weather forecasters, it is important to check local forecasts and warnings issued by the Bureau of Meteorology.

Total forecast rainfall (mm) for the period 11 to 18 October 2018

Map of the total forecast rainfall for the next 8 days. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2018, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 11/10/2018

Commodities

Current indicators – 11 October 2018

IndicatorWeek endedUnitLatest pricePrice week priorWeekly changePrice 12 months priorYear on year changeChart

Selected world indicator prices

Australian Dollar – AUD/USD Exchange Rate10-OctUS$/A$0.710.72-1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.0.78-9%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Wheat – US no. 2 hard red winter wheat, fob Gulf09-OctUS$/t2402400%21412%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Coarse Grains – US no. 2 yellow corn, fob Gulf10-OctUS$/t1611582%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.1507%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Canola – Rapeseed, Europe, fob Hamburga09-OctUS$/t4354252%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.436<1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Cotton – Cotlook 'A' Index10-OctUSc/lb85.886.6<1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.78.79%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Sugar – Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, no.11 contract10-OctUSc/lb12.711.411%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.14.2-11%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Wool – Eastern Market Indicator04-OctAc/kg clean1,9922,013-1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.1,55029%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Wool – Western Market Indicator05-OctAc/kg clean2,1322,141<1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.1,60835%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart

Selected domestic crop indicator prices

Milling Wheat – ASW1, track quote, Port Adelaide, SA02-OctA$/t360365-1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.24149%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Feed Wheat – General purpose, Sydney, NSW10-OctA$/t4554355%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.27367%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Feed Barley – Sydney, NSW10-OctA$/t4204102%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.25664%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Canola – Portland, Vic.01-OctA$/t6425987%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.54119%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Grain Sorghum – Sydney, NSW10-OctA$/t4104051%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.31431%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart

Selected domestic livestock indicator prices

Beef – Eastern Young Cattle Indicator04-OctAc/kg cwt481487-1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.525-8%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Mutton – Mutton indicator (18-24 kg fat score 2-3), Vic05-OctAc/kg cwt352405-13%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.373-6%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Lamb – Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator04-OctAc/kg cwt682707-4%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.60213%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Pig – Eastern Seaboard (60.1-75 kg), average of buyers & sellers28-SepAc/kg cwt2682651%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.277-3%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Goat – Eastern States (12.1-16 kg)08-OctAc/kg cwt5485480%45720%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Live cattle – Light steers ex Darwin to Indonesia06-OctAc/kg lwt3003000%330-9%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Live sheep – Live wether (Muchea WA saleyard) to Middle East08-Oct$/head93nana108-14%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart

Global Dairy Trade weighted average pricesa

Dairy – Whole milk powder02-OctUS$/t2,7532,768<1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.3,037-9%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Dairy – Skim milk powder02-OctUS$/t1,9821,980<1%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.1,8955%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Dairy – Cheddar cheese02-OctUS$/t3,4683,503<1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.4,109-16%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Dairy – Anhydrous milk fat02-OctUS$/t5,0695,294-4%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.6,504-22%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart

a Global Dairy Trade prices are updated twice monthly on the first and third Tuesday of each month.

Selected world indicator prices
Selected domestic crop indicator prices
Selected domestic livestock indicator prices
Global dairy trade weighted average prices
Movements in selected fruit and vegetable prices
Data attribution

Water

Water storages, water markets and water allocations - current week

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Last reviewed:
11 Oct 2018