Weekly update - 12 July 2018

​​​​​​​​​​​​​Weekly Australian Climate,
Water and Agricultural Update

Key issues

  • During the week ending 11 July 2018 rainfall was restricted to the far south and east of the country. Rainfall totals of between 10 and 50 millimetres were recorded across south-eastern New South Wales, eastern and southern-western Victoria, south-eastern Queensland, southern South Australia, south-western Western Australia and Tasmania.
  • In cropping regions, weekly rainfall totals of between 1 and 5 millimetres were common in southern New South Wales, Victoria, South Australia and eastern cropping regions in Queensland. Higher weekly rainfall totals of between 10 and 25 millimetres were recorded in southern cropping regions of: Victoria; South Australia; and Western Australia. Little to no rainfall was recorded across cropping regions in western and northern Queensland, and central and northern New South Wales.
  • For the week ending 10 July 2018, maximum and minimum temperatures were average across much of the country.
  • A drier than average August is more likely across much of the eastern half of mainland Australia, with parts of the southeast having a greater than 80 per cent chance of a drier than average month.
  • The mid-month climate outlook for August to October 2018 indicates a drier than average three months is more likely across the south-east of the mainland and in northern Australia, although rainfall totals are typically low at this time of year in the tropical regions. There is no strong tendency towards either wetter or drier than average conditions for most of the remainder of Australia.
  • During the next eight days, rainfall is expected to be limited to the south-west and south-east of mainland Australia, and most of Tasmania. Little to no rainfall is forecast across the remainder of the country.
  • Rainfall totals of between 1 and 10 millimetres are forecast for most cropping regions across southern Australia. Higher totals of between10 and 25 millimetres are expected for cropping regions in southern Victoria. Little to no rainfall is forecast for cropping regions in northern New South Wales and Queensland.
  • Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) increased during the week ending 12 July 2018 by 53 gigalitres (GL) to 11,793 GL and are at 52 per cent of total capacity. This is 17 percentage points or 3,894 GL less than at the same time last year.
  • Allocation prices in the southern Murray–Darling Basin increased in the week ending 12 July 2018 to $195 per ML. This is an increase of $12 from the same time last week.

Climate

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Rainfall this week

During the week ending 11 July 2018 little to no rainfall was recorded across much of mainland Australia, with falls restricted to the far south and east of the country. Rainfall totals of between 10 and 50 millimetres were recorded across areas of south-eastern New South Wales, eastern and southern-western Victoria, south-eastern Queensland, southern South Australia, south-western Western Australia and eastern Tasmania.

Higher rainfall totals in excess of 50 millimetres were recorded in across much of Tasmania and scattered alpine regions of New South Wales and Victoria. The highest recorded weekly total was 169 millimetres at Mount Read, in western Tasmania.

In cropping regions, rainfall totals of between 1 and 5 millimetres were recorded in southern New South Wales and eastern cropping regions in Queensland. For cropping regions in Victoria and South Australia, weekly rainfall totals were variable, ranging from 1 to 5 millimetres in the north to 15 to 25 millimetres in the south. In Western Australia, rainfall totals of between 5 and 15 millimetres were recorded across most cropping regions. Little to no rainfall was recorded across cropping regions in western and northern Queensland, and central and northern New South Wales.

Rainfall analysis for the week ending 11 July 2018

Map showing weekly rainfall totals in Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2018, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 11/7/2018

Note: The rainfall analyses and associated maps utilise data contained in the Bureau of Meteorology climate database, the Australian Data Archive for Meteorology (ADAM). The analyses are initially produced automatically from real-time data with limited quality control. They are intended to provide a general overview of rainfall across Australia as quickly as possible after the observations are received. For further information go to Weekly Rainfall Update.

Temperature anomalies this week

For the week ending 10 July 2018, maximum and minimum temperatures were average across much of the country. Maximum temperatures were slightly above average (2°C to 4°C) across scattered area of south-eastern, central and northern Australia. Meanwhile, minimum temperatures were above average (2°C to 6°C) across parts of south-eastern, eastern and northern Australia.

Maximum temperature anomalies for the week ending 10 July 2018

Map showing maximum temperature anomalies in Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2018, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 11/7/2018

Minimum temperature anomalies for the week ending 10 July 2018

Map showing minimum temperature anomalies in Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description.] 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2018, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 11/7/2018

Note: Spatial temperature analyses are based on historical weekly temperature data provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. These temperature anomaly maps show the departure of the maximum and minimum temperatures from the average over the 1961 to 1990 reference period. For further information go to Daily maximum temperature for Australia.

Mid-month National Climate Outlook

The rainfall and temperature outlooks presented below show the likelihood, represented as a percentage, of experiencing wetter or drier (and warmer or cooler) than median climatic conditions for the given outlook periods. Climate outlooks are generated by the Predictive Climate Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA), a dynamical (physics-based) climate model developed by the Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric research division.

For further information, go to About the outlook

The current outlook reflects the neutral state of broad-scale climate drivers, such as El Niño, La Niña and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), meaning they are currently having little influence on Australia's climate.

The latest model run from the Bureau of Meteorology’s climate model (POAMA) suggests that the westerly winds (and associated rain systems) that typically flow along the south of Australia at this time of year are likely to be weaker than average, particularly in the southeast of the country. This is likely to be influencing the drier outlook for August to October. Current cooler than average waters to the northwest of Australia may also be influencing the flow of moisture into southeast Australia.

A drier than average August is more likely across much of the eastern half of mainland Australia, with parts of the south-east having a greater than 80 per cent chance of a drier than average month. For the remainder of the country there are roughly equal chances of a wetter or drier than average August (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 12 July 2018).

Chance of exceeding the median rainfall August 2018

Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

The rainfall outlook for August to October 2018 period indicates that there is no strong tendency towards either wetter or drier than average conditions for most of Australia. In contrast, a drier than average three months is more likely across the south-east of the mainland and in northern Australia, although rainfall totals are typically low at this time of year in the tropical regions (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 12 July 2018).

Chance of exceeding the median rainfall August to October 2018

Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

The temperature outlook for August to October 2018 indicates that both daytime and night-time temperatures are more likely to be warmer than average across much of the country (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 12 July 2018). Parts of the southeast have a greater than 80 per cent chance of a warmer days and nights.

Chance of exceeding the median maximum temperature August to October 2018

Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

Chance of exceeding the median minimum temperature August to October 2018

Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

Rainfall forecast for the next 8 days

During the next eight days, rainfall is expected to be limited to the south-west and south-east of mainland Australia, and most of Tasmania. Little to no rainfall is forecast across the remainder of the country. Rainfall totals of between 10 and 50 millimetres are forecast for the far south-west of Western Australia, alpine areas of New South Wales, southern and alpine areas of Victoria, parts of southern South Australia, and western and northern Tasmania. Heavier falls of between 50 and 150 millimetres are forecast for western Tasmania.

In cropping regions, rainfall totals of between 1 and 10 millimetres are forecast for southern New South Wales, Victoria, South Australia and Western Australia western and central Western Australia. Higher totals of between10 and 25 millimetres are expected for cropping regions in southern Victoria. Little to no rainfall is forecast for cropping regions in northern New South Wales and Queensland.

This rainfall forecast is produced from computer models. As it contains no input from weather forecasters, it is important to check local forecasts and warnings issued by the Bureau of Meteorology.

Total forecast rainfall (mm) for the period 12 to 19 July 2018

Map of the total forecast rainfall for the next 8 days. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2018, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 12/7/2018

Commodities

Current indicators – 12 July 2018

IndicatorWeek endedUnitLatest pricePrice week priorWeekly changePrice 12 months priorYear on year changeChart

Selected world indicator prices

Australian Dollar – AUD/USD Exchange Rate11-JulUS$/A$0.740.740%0.76-3%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Wheat – US no. 2 hard red winter wheat, fob Gulf10-JulUS$/t2352245%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.253-7%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Coarse Grains – US no. 2 yellow corn, fob Gulf11-JulUS$/t155157-1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.163-5%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Canola – Rapeseed, Europe, fob Hamburga10-JulUS$/t4224171%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.421<1%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Cotton – Cotlook 'A' Index11-JulUSc/lb94.393.5<1%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.84.112%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Sugar – Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, no.11 contract11-JulUSc/lb11.411.7-3%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.13.7-17%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Wool – Eastern Market Indicator05-JulAc/kg clean1,9942,056-3%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.1,52431%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Wool – Western Market Indicator06-JulAc/kg clean2,1542,243-4%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.1,56138%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart

Selected domestic crop indicator prices

Milling Wheat – ASW1, track quote, Port Adelaide, SA10-JulA$/t2872841%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.2639%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Feed Wheat – General purpose, Sydney, NSW11-JulA$/t365375-3%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.28030%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Feed Barley – Sydney, NSW04-JulA$/t3603503%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.25641%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Canola – Portland, Vic.09-JulA$/t521518<1%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.518<1%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Grain Sorghum – Sydney, NSW11-JulA$/t350 -1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.30415%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart

Selected domestic livestock indicator prices

Beef – Eastern Young Cattle Indicator05-JulAc/kg cwt5124993%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.611-16%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Mutton – Mutton indicator (18-24 kg fat score 2-3), Vic06-JulAc/kg cwt538533<1%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.44421%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Lamb – Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator05-JulAc/kg cwt715710<1%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.57824%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Pig – Eastern Seaboard (60.1-75 kg), average of buyers & sellers29-JunAc/kg cwt251253<1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.285-12%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Goat – Eastern States (12.1-16 kg)09-JulAc/kg cwt5365164%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.683-22%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Live cattle – Light steers ex Darwin to Indonesia30-JunAc/kg lwt2852754%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.nana chart
Live sheep – Live wether (Muchea WA saleyard) to Middle East14-May$/head95nana116-18%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart

Global Dairy Trade weighted average pricesa

Dairy – Whole milk powder03-JulUS$/t2,9053,189-9%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.3,111-7%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Dairy – Skim milk powder03-JulUS$/t1,9132,003-4%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.2,090-8%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Dairy – Cheddar cheese03-JulUS$/t3,7133,847-3%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.4,051-8%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Dairy – Anhydrous milk fat03-JulUS$/t5,9376,060-2%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.6,596-10%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart

a Global Dairy Trade prices are updated twice monthly on the first and third Tuesday of each month.

Selected world indicator prices
Selected domestic crop indicator prices
Selected domestic livestock indicator prices
Global dairy trade weighted average prices
Movements in selected fruit and vegetable prices
Data attribution

Water

Water storages, water markets and water allocations - current week

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Last reviewed:
12 Jul 2018