Weekly update - 13 July 2017

​​​​​​Weekly Australian Climate,
Water and Agricultural Update

Key issues

  • During the week ending 12 July 2017 rainfall totals between 5 and 50 millimetres were recorded in parts of southern New South Wales, Victoria, southern South Australia, western Tasmania, south-western Western Australia, and south-eastern and central Queensland. Totals up to 100 millimetres were recorded in southern parts of the Northern Territory.
  • For the week ending 11 July 2017 maximum temperatures were generally close to average over much of the country, except across much of northern Australia (2°C to 6°C above average) and central Western Australia (2°C to 4°C below average).
  • For the four month period from March to June 2017, large areas of Western Australia and parts of central and southern Australia recorded lowest on record rainfall. Severe and serious rainfall deficiencies are present along the west coast of Western Australia, southern parts of South Australia and south-eastern parts of the Northern Territory. Areas of severe to serious rainfall deficiencies are also present in far eastern Victoria, western Queensland and south-western Tasmania.
  • The forecast for the next eight days indicates that rainfall is mainly expected across eastern and southern Australia. Rainfall totals exceeding 25 millimetres are expected in coastal parts of south-western Western Australia, south-eastern South Australia, Tasmania, southern and alpine regions of New South Wales and Victoria, north-eastern New South Wales, and isolated parts of coastal north-eastern Queensland. Little to no rainfall is forecast for the remainder of Australia.
  • Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) increased during the week ending 13 July 2017 by 30 gigalitres (GL) to 15,688 GL and are at 69 per cent of total capacity. This is 5,791 GL or around 59 per cent more than the same time last year.
  • Allocation prices in the southern Murray–Darling Basin have nearly doubled since the start of the new water year 2017–18, from around $50/ML last week to $95/ML in the week ending 13 July 2017.
  • The eastern states trade lamb indicator price has fallen for the fifth consecutive week, reflecting weaker demand from processors and increased turn-off following a dry June.
  • The May 2017 Australian export data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on 6 July 2017, indicates that year-to-date exports of major crops have increased substantially compared with the same period in 2015–16.
  • Strong demand in Asia markets for Valencia oranges has resulted in continued high exports volumes and an increase in unit values in 2016–17.

Climate

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Rainfall this week

During the week ending 12 July 2017 widespread rainfall was recorded across central, eastern, and southern Australia. A low pressure system brought rainfall totals between 5 and 50 millimetres to parts of southern New South Wales, Victoria, southern South Australia and western Tasmania. Similar totals were recorded in south-western Western Australia, and south-eastern and central Queensland. Rainfall totals up to 100 millimetres were recorded in southern parts of the Northern Territory. The highest recorded weekly total was 115 millimetres at Mount Read on Tasmania’s west coast.

The rainfall analyses and associated maps utilise data contained in the Bureau of Meteorology climate database, the Australian Data Archive for Meteorology (ADAM). The analyses are initially produced automatically from real-time data with limited quality control. They are intended to provide a general overview of rainfall across Australia as quickly as possible after the observations are received.

For further information go to Weekly Rainfall Update

Rainfall - week ending 12 July 2017

Map showing weekly rainfall totals in Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2017, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 12/07/2017

Temperature anomalies this week

During the week ending 11 July 2017 maximum temperatures were generally close to average over much of the country, except across much of northern Australia (2°C to 6°C above average) and central Western Australia (2°C to 4°C below average). Minimum temperatures were between 2°C and 8°C above average across most of Queensland, northern parts of the Northern Territory and parts of northern Western Australia, with some areas between 8°C and 10°C above average for this time of year. Minimum temperatures ranged between 2°C and 6°C below average across much of Western Australia, South Australia and northern New South Wales. For the remainder of Australia, minimum temperatures were close to average.

Maximum temperature anomalies - week ending 11 July 2017

Map showing maximum temperature anomalies in Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2017, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 11/07/2017

Minimum temperature anomalies - week ending 11 July 2017

Map showing minimum temperature anomalies in Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description.] 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2017, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 11/07/2017

Note: Spatial temperature analyses are based on historical weekly temperature data provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. These temperature anomaly maps show the departure of the maximum and minimum temperatures from their long-term averages. Temperature anomalies are calculated using high-resolution gridded datasets from 1911 onwards. For further information go to Daily maximum temperature for Australia.

Rainfall deficiencies

For the four month period from March to June 2017, large areas of Western Australia and parts of central and southern Australia recorded lowest on record rainfall. Rainfall deficiencies have increased in both extent and severity along the west coast of Western Australia compared to the three month period (March to May 2017) presented in the previous Bureau of Meteorology ‘Drought Statement’. Rainfall deficiencies have also increased in southern parts of South Australia, expanded in western and southern Tasmania and western Queensland and adjacent areas of southern Northern Territory, and have emerged in West Gippsland and adjacent parts of north-eastern Victoria (Bureau of Meteorology ‘Drought Statement’, 3 July 2017).

Rainfall deficiencies for the period 1 March to 30 June 2017

Map showing rainfall deficiencies for the period 1 March to 30 June 2017. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2017, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 03/07/2017

Rainfall forecast for the next 8 days

For the next eight days indicates that rainfall is mainly expected across eastern and southern Australia. Rainfall totals between 10 and 50 millimetres are expected in coastal parts of south-western Western Australia, south-eastern South Australia, and southern and alpine regions of New South Wales and Victoria. Rainfall totals between 10 and 25 millimetres are forecast for north-eastern New South Wales and isolated parts of coastal north-eastern Queensland. Little to no rainfall is forecast for the remainder of mainland Australia. For Tasmania, a trough and cold front are expected to bring rain to most of the state, with totals of up to 100 millimetres forecast in the north-west.

Total forecast rainfall (mm) for the period 13 to 20 July 2017

Map of the total forecast rainfall for the next 8 days. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2017, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 13/07/2017

Water

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Water availability

Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) increased during the week ending 13 July 2017 by 30 gigalitres (GL) to 15,688 GL and are at 69 per cent of total capacity. This is 5,791 GL or around 59 per cent more than the same time last year.

Water storages in the Murray-Darling Basin (NSW, Victoria and Queensland)

Line graph showing water storages in the Murray–Darling Basin (NSW, Victoria and Queensland) from 2000 to 2017, measured as a percentage of the total storage of 22,598 gigalitres. 

Information on irrigation water available in the Murray–Darling Basin from 1 January 2001 to 13 July 2017 is shown above. The top horizontal (short dash) line indicates the storage level during a similar time last year. The bottom horizontal (long dash) line indicates the amount of ‘dead’ or unusable storage.

Water markets

Allocation prices in the southern Murray–Darling Basin have nearly doubled since the start of the new water year 2017–18, from around $50/ML last week to $95/ML in the week ending 13 July 2017. This jump is observed in the Murrumbidgee and New South Wales and Victorian Murray areas. The increase in allocation price may be a response to reports of dry conditions in water determination outlooks for Victorian and New South Wales catchments.

Allocation price in the Victoria Goulburn area remained stable at around $45/ML compared to the same time last week.

Victorian trade resumed this week, opening on 10 July 2017.

Allocation trade activity in the southern Murray-Darling Basin

Allocation trade activity in the southern Murray-Darling Basin. The trades shown reflect market activity and do not encompass all register trades. The price line reflects locally fitted price values for the entire southern Murray-Darling Basin. 

The trades shown reflect market activity and do not encompass all register trades. The price line reflects locally fitted price values for the entire southern Murray-Darling Basin. Data shown is current until Thursday 13 July, 2017.

Allocation trade prices, southern Murray–Darling Basin trade zones

 

Southern MDB

Goulburn

South Australia

Murrumbidgee

Victoria Murray

NSW Murray

Current week: 07/07 - 13/07

$94.74

$45.35

NA

$102.99

$100.00

$93.41

Last week: 30/06 - 06/07

$50.31

$44.77

$49.48

$98.89

$44.78

$33.85

June 2017

$32.29

$40.85

$38.40

$4.82

$41.25

$15.03

Commodities

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Market focus

Lamb prices

The eastern states trade lamb indicator price averaged 578 cents a kilogram in the week ending 7 July 2017, 7 per cent below the average of the previous week. This is the fifth consecutive week in which the lamb indicator price has fallen, leaving it 14 per cent below the average for the first week in June. This contraction has been driven by both an increase in the supply of lambs for slaughter and reduced demand from processors. Dry seasonal conditions have led to an increased turn off of lambs and sheep. While, processor demand is seasonally lower, with processors reportedly shutting down for maintenance ahead of an expected surge in slaughter in spring.

Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator Price, 2015 to 2017

Line graph showing Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator price, 2015 to 2017. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description 

Source: Meat & Livestock Australia

Crop exports

The May 2017 Australian export data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on 6 July 2017, indicates that year-to-date exports of major crops have increased substantially compared with the same period in 2015–16. Between July 2016 and May 2017, Australia exported:

  • 20 million tonnes of wheat valued at $5.5 billion. The largest markets in value terms were Indonesia (21 per cent), India (13 per cent) and China (8 per cent). The volume and value of exports increased by 35 and 14 per cent, respectively, compared with the same period in 2015−16.
  • 8.8 million tonnes of barley valued at $2.2 billion. The volume and value of exports increased by 78 per cent and 36 per cent, respectively, compared with the same period in 2015–16.
  • 3.6 million tonnes of canola valued at $2.1 billion. The largest markets in value terms were Germany (42 per cent), Belgium (24 per cent) and France (12 per cent). The volume and value of exports increased by 85 per cent and 93 per cent, respectively, when compared with the same period in 2015–16.
  • 1.9 million tonnes of chickpeas valued at $1.8 billion. The largest markets in value terms were India (59 per cent), Pakistan (22 per cent) and Bangladesh (9 per cent). The volume and value of exports increased by 69 per cent and 87 per cent, respectively, compared with the same period in 2015–16.

Monthly major crop exports, July 2015 to May 2017

Stacked bar graph showing monthly major crop exports, July 2015 to May 2017. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description 

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, International Trade in Goods and Services, Australia, May 2017 (cat. no. 5368.0)

Orange exports

Strong demand in Asia markets, primarily Japan, China, Hong Kong and the Philippines, for Valencia oranges has resulted in continued high export volumes and an increase in unit values in 2016–17. Australian exports of Valencia oranges between July 2016 and May 2017 totalled 21,300 tonnes, comparable to the volume shipped in 2015–16 and around 30 per cent above the average of 16,000 tonnes shipped between 2012–13 and 2014–15. Between July 2016 and May 2017, average Australian export prices (FOB) for Valencia oranges have averaged $1.20 a kilogram, up 20 per cent on the $0.99 a kilogram averaged in 2015–16.

Valencia orange exports and average export unit values, 2012-13 to 2016-17

Bar and line graph showing Valencia orange exports and average export unit values, 2012–13 to 2016–17. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description 

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, International Trade in Goods and Services, Australia, May 2017 (cat. no. 5368.0)

Current indicators – 13 July 2017

IndicatorWeek endedUnitLatest pricePrice week priorWeekly changePrice 12 months priorYear on year changeChart

Selected world indicator prices

Australian Dollar – AUD/USD Exchange Rate12-JulUS$/A$0.760.77-1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.0.760% chart
Wheat – US no. 2 hard red winter wheat, fob Gulf11-JulUS$/t2532453%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.18835%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Coarse Grains – US no. 2 yellow corn, fob Gulf12-JulUS$/t1631602%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.165-1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Canola – Rapeseed, Europe, fob Hamburg11-JulUS$/t4214093%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.3879%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Cotton – Cotlook 'A' Index12-JulUSc/lb84.183.8<1%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.77.78%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Sugar – Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, no.11 contract12-JulUSc/lb13.713.6<1%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.19.8-31%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Wool – Eastern Market Indicator06-JulAc/kg clean1,5241,5071%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.1,32015%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Wool – Western Market Indicator07-JulAc/kg clean1,5611,552<1%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.1,39312%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart

Selected domestic crop indicator prices

Milling Wheat – ASW1, track quote, Port Adelaide, SA11-JulA$/t2632476%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.23910%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Feed Wheat – General purpose, Sydney, NSW12-JulA$/t28325810%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.2618%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Feed Barley – Sydney, NSW12-JulA$/t2562416%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.21320%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Canola – Portland, Vic.10-JulA$/t5185053%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.4827%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Grain Sorghum – Sydney, NSW12-JulA$/t2842840%22924%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart

Selected domestic livestock indicator prices

Beef – Eastern Young Cattle Indicator06-JulAc/kg cwt611621-2%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.659-7%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Mutton – Mutton indicator (18-24 kg fat score 2-3), Vic07-JulAc/kg cwt444482-8%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.4138%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Lamb – Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator06-JulAc/kg cwt578625-8%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.618-6%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Pig – Eastern Seaboard (60.1-75 kg), average of buyers & sellers23-JunAc/kg cwt285288-1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.379-25%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Goat – Eastern States (12.1-16 kg)10-JulAc/kg cwt683682<1%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.57419%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Live cattle – Light steers ex Darwin to Indonesia20-MayAc/kg lwt3203200%28014%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Live sheep – Live wether (Muchea WA saleyard) to Middle East03-Jul$/head1061060%93.314%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart

Global Dairy Trade weighted average pricesa

Dairy – Whole milk powder04-JulUS$/t3,1113,0223%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.2,06251%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Dairy – Skim milk powder04-JulUS$/t2,0902,218-6%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.1,9388%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Dairy – Cheddar cheese04-JulUS$/t4,0514,121-2%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.2,90240%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Dairy – Anhydrous milk fat04-JulUS$/t6,5966,885-4%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.3,62182%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart

a Global Dairy Trade prices are updated twice monthly on the first and third Tuesday of each month.

Movements in selected fruit and vegetable prices
Data attribution

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Last reviewed:
13 Jul 2017