Weekly update - 14 June 2018

​​​​​​​​​Weekly Australian Climate,
Water and Agricultural Update

Key issues

  • During the week ending 13 June 2018 little to no rainfall was recorded across much of mainland Australia, with falls being restricted to the west and the south of the country.
  • For the week ending 12 June 2018, maximum and minimum temperatures were above average across much of the country. The highest anomalies were between 6°C and 8°C above average in central Australia.
  • A drier than average July is more likely across the eastern half of mainland Australia, with parts of the south-east having a greater than 80 per cent chance of a drier than average month.
  • The mid-month climate outlook for July to September 2018 indicates a drier than average three months is more likely across the south-east of the mainland and in northern Australia, although rainfall totals are typically low at this time of year in the tropical regions. There is no strong tendency towards either wetter or drier than average conditions for most of the remainder of Australia.
  • During the next eight days, rainfall is expected to be restricted to the south-west and south-east of the country and isolated areas of central Queensland. Little to no rainfall is forecast across much of the remainder of the country.
  • Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) increased during the week ending 14 June 2018 by 88 gigalitres (GL) to 11,422 GL and are at 51 per cent of total capacity. This is 18 percentage points or 4,097 GL less than at the same time last year.
  • Allocation prices in the southern Murray–Darling Basin increased in the week ending 14 June 2018 at $185 per ML. This is an increase of $12 from the same time last week.

Climate

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Rainfall this week

During the week ending 13 June 2018 little to no rainfall was recorded across much of mainland Australia, with falls being restricted to the west and south of the country. Rainfall totals of between 10 and 50 millimetres were recorded across much of south-western and north-western Western Australia. Similar rainfall totals were recorded across parts of southern and coastal New South Wales, western and central Victoria, southern South Australia, scattered areas in south-eastern and western Queensland, and the west and north-eastern of Tasmania.

Higher totals of between 50 and 150 millimetres were recorded across the far south-west and north-west of Western Australia, the northern coastal regions of New South Wales, alpine areas of Victoria and north-western Tasmania. The highest recorded weekly total was 143 millimetres at Loongana in the northwest of Tasmania.

In cropping regions, rainfall totals of between 5 and 50 millimetres were recorded in Victoria, South Australia and Western Australia. In New South Wales, similar rainfall totals were recorded across southern and central cropping regions. Little to no rainfall was recorded across cropping regions in northern New South Wales and Queensland.

Rainfall analysis for the week ending 13 June 2018

Map showing weekly rainfall totals in Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2018, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 13/06/2018

Note: The rainfall analyses and associated maps utilise data contained in the Bureau of Meteorology climate database, the Australian Data Archive for Meteorology (ADAM). The analyses are initially produced automatically from real-time data with limited quality control. They are intended to provide a general overview of rainfall across Australia as quickly as possible after the observations are received. For further information go to Weekly Rainfall Update.

Temperature anomalies this week

For the week ending 12  June 2018, maximum and minimum temperatures were above average across much of the country. The highest anomalies were between 6°C and 8°C above average in central Australia. Much of New South Wales, Queensland, the Northern territory, northern South Australia and the northeast of Western Australia recorded maximum temperatures anomalies of at least 2°C for this time of the year. Maximum and minimum were generally close to average across the remainder of the country.

Maximum temperature anomalies for the week ending 12 June 2018

Map showing maximum temperature anomalies for Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2018, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 13/06/2018

Minimum temperature anomalies for the week ending 12 June 2018

Map showing minimum temperature anomalies in Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description.] 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2018, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 13/06/2018

Note: Spatial temperature analyses are based on historical weekly temperature data provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. These temperature anomaly maps show the departure of the maximum and minimum temperatures from their long-term averages. Temperature anomalies are calculated using high-resolution gridded datasets from 1911 onwards. For further information go to Daily maximum temperature for Australia.

Mid-month National Climate Outlook

The rainfall and temperature outlooks presented below show the likelihood, represented as a percentage, of experiencing wetter or drier (and warmer or cooler) than median climatic conditions for the given outlook periods. Climate outlooks are generated by the Predictive Climate Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA), a dynamical (physics-based) climate model developed by the Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric research division.

For further information, go to About the climate outlooks

The current outlook reflects the neutral state of broad-scale climate drivers, such as El Niño, La Niña and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), meaning they are currently having little influence on Australia's climate.

When broad-scale drivers are neutral, the climate is often influenced by secondary climate drivers or more local effects. The current outlook is suggesting that higher than average mean sea level pressures to the south of Australia are favored, resulting in weaker westerly winds and fewer cold fronts from the Southern Ocean affecting south-east Australia.

A drier than average July is more likely across the eastern half of mainland Australia, with parts of the south-east having a greater than 80 per cent chance of a drier than average month. For the remainder of the country there are roughly equal chances of a wetter or drier than average July (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 14 June 2018).

Chance of exceeding the median rainfall July 2018

 

The rainfall outlook for July to September 2018 period indicates that there is no strong tendency towards either wetter or drier than average conditions for most of Australia. In contrast, a drier than average three months is more likely across the south-east of the mainland and in northern Australia, although rainfall totals are typically low at this time of year in the tropical regions (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 14 June 2018).

Chance of exceeding the median rainfall July to September 2018

 

The temperature outlook for July to September 2018 indicates that both daytime and night-time temperatures are more likely to be warmer than average across much of the country. Parts of the southeast having a greater than 80 per cent chance of a warmer days and nights. There is no strong signal towards either above or below maximum temperatures across much of Western Australia, or above or below minimum temperatures across parts of northern Australia. (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 14 June 2018).

Chance of exceeding the median maximum temperature July to September 2018

 

Chance of exceeding the median minimum temperature July to September 2018

 

Rainfall forecast for the next 8 days

During the next eight days, rainfall is expected to be restricted to southwest and southeast of the country and isolated areas of central Queensland. Little to no rainfall is forecast across much of the remainder of the country. Totals between 10 and 50 millimetres are forecast for parts of southern and coastal New South Wales, southern and eastern Victoria, isolated areas of central Queensland, the far south-east of South Australia, the far south-west and north-west of Western Australia, and Tasmania. Heavier falls of between 50 and 200 millimetres are forecast for parts of southern and eastern Victoria and western Tasmania.

In cropping regions, rainfall totals of between 1 and 25 millimetres are forecast for Victoria and Western Australia. Lower totals of between 1 and 10 millimetres are expected for cropping regions in South Australia. In New South Wales, similar rainfall totals are forecast, with the lowest rainfall totals expected in south-western and central parts of the cropping region. Little to no rainfall is forecast for cropping regions in northern New South Wales and Queensland.

This rainfall forecast is produced from computer models. As it contains no input from weather forecasters, it is important to check local forecasts and warnings issued by the Bureau of Meteorology.

Total forecast rainfall (mm) for the period 14 to 21 June 2018

Map of the total forecast rainfall for the next 8 days. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

Source: ©Commonwealth of Australia 2018, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 14/06/2018

Water

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Water availability

Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) increased during the week ending 7 June 2018 by 88 gigalitres (GL) to 11,422 GL and are at 51 per cent of total capacity. This is 18 percentage points or 4,097 GL less than at the same time last year.

Visit the interactive Tableau data dashboard

Water storages in the Murray-Darling Basin (NSW, Victoria and Queensland)

Line graph showing water storages in the Murray–Darling Basin (NSW, Victoria and Queensland) from 2001 to 2018, measured as a percentage of the total storage of 22,598 gigalitres. 

Information on water available in dams used for irrigation the Murray–Darling Basin from 1 January 2001 to 14 June 2018 is shown above. The top horizontal (short dash) line indicates the storage level during a similar time last year. The bottom horizontal (long dash) line indicates the amount of ‘dead’ or unusable storage.

Water allocations

The current water allocations for the 2017–18 water trading season for licence holders in New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia water systems are summarised in the following table and charts.

Water allocations in the Murray–Darling Basin (NSW, Victoria and South Australia)

Allocations at

14 June 2018

7 June 2018

New South Wales

General security

High security

General security

High security

NSW Murray

51%

97%

51%

97%

NSW Murrumbidgee

45%

95%

45%

95%

NSW Lower Darling

100%

100%

100%

100%

NSW Macquarie and Cudgegong

38%

100%

38%

100%

NSW Hunter

100%

100%

100%

100%

NSW Lachlan

2%

100%

2%

100%

NSW Lower Namoi

7%

100%

7%

100%

NSW Upper Namoi

100%

100%

100%

100%

NSW Gwydir

18%

100%

18%

100%

NSW Border Rivers

100%(a)/19.62%(b)

100%

100%(a)/19.62%(b)

100%

NSW Peel

100%

100%

100%

100%

Victoria

Low reliability

High reliability

Low reliability

High reliability

Victoria Murray

0%

100%

0%

100%

Victoria Goulburn

0%

100%

0%

100%

Victoria Campaspe

59%

100%

59%

100%

Victoria Loddon

0%

100%

0%

100%

Victoria Bullarook

100%

100%

100%

100%

Victoria Broken

100%

100%

100%

100%

South Australia

 

Class 3a/3b

 

Class 3a/3b

South Australia Murray

 

100%

 

100%

Select water allocation percentages in the southern Murray-Darling Basin

 

 

 

 

Water markets

Allocation prices in the southern Murray-Darling Basin increased in the week ending 14 June 2018 at $185 per ML. This is an increase of $12 from the same time last week. This contrasts with an average price of $160 in May across the whole southern MDB, and $23 during the same month last year.

Murrumbidgee intravalley and interstate trade closed on 31 May and will remain closed until 1 July when all NSW trade recommences.

Allocation trade activity in the southern Murray–Darling Basin

Allocation trade activity in the southern Murray-Darling Basin. The trades shown reflect market activity and do not encompass all register trades. The price line reflects locally fitted price values for the entire southern Murray-Darling Basin.  

The trades shown reflect estimated market activity and do not encompass all register trades. The price line reflects locally fitted price values for the entire southern Murray–Darling Basin. Data shown is current until 14 June 2018. Trade activity is shown as colour density.

Allocation trade prices, southern Murray–Darling Basin trade zones (price per ML)

 

Southern MDB

Victoria Goulburn

SA Murray

NSW Murrumbidgee

Victoria Murray

NSW Murray

Current week: 08/06/18 - 14/06/18

$185

$180.80

$183.20

-

$187.25

$183.16

Last week: 01/06/18 - 07/06/18

$173.27

$176.86

$155.79

-

$175.70

$163.93

May-18

$159.84

$157.09

$151.00

$174.56

$155.73

$155.50

May-17

$22.67

$27.81

$29.92

$5.50

$27.71

$23.68

Commodities

Current indicators – 14 June 2018

IndicatorWeek endedUnitLatest pricePrice week priorWeekly changePrice 12 months priorYear on year changeChart

Selected world indicator prices

Australian Dollar – AUD/USD Exchange Rate13-JunUS$/A$0.760.760%0.751%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Wheat – US no. 2 hard red winter wheat, fob Gulf12-JunUS$/t2542511%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.21717%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Coarse Grains – US no. 2 yellow corn, fob Gulf13-JunUS$/t169173-2%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.1634%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Canola – Rapeseed, Europe, fob Hamburga12-JunUS$/t399406-2%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.412-3%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Cotton – Cotlook 'A' Index13-JunUSc/lb101.099.71%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.86.217%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Sugar – Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, no.11 contract13-JunUSc/lb12.212.3<1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.14.0-13%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Wool – Eastern Market Indicator07-JunAc/kg clean2,0112,027<1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.1,47836%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Wool – Western Market Indicator01-JunAc/kg clean2,1672,1192%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.1,50444%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart

Selected domestic crop indicator prices

Milling Wheat – ASW1, track quote, Port Adelaide, SA12-JunA$/t2902900%21336%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Feed Wheat – General purpose, Sydney, NSW12-JunA$/t3753750%25050%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Feed Barley – Sydney, NSW12-JunA$/t3503500%23152%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Canola – Portland, Vic.11-JunA$/t5205200%5033%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Grain Sorghum – Sydney, NSW12-JunA$/t3553550%27927%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart

Selected domestic livestock indicator prices

Beef – Eastern Young Cattle Indicator07-JunAc/kg cwt4774672%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.643-26%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Mutton – Mutton indicator (18-24 kg fat score 2-3), Vic01-JunAc/kg cwt4864791%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.557-13%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Lamb – Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator07-JunAc/kg cwt6366193%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.670-5%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Pig – Eastern Seaboard (60.1-75 kg), average of buyers & sellers01-JunAc/kg cwt256260-2%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.290-12%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Goat – Eastern States (12.1-16 kg)11-JunAc/kg cwt5085080%660-23%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Live cattle – Light steers ex Darwin to Indonesia09-JunAc/kg lwt2602600%nana chart
Live sheep – Live wether (Muchea WA saleyard) to Middle East14-May$/head95nana116-18%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart

Global Dairy Trade weighted average pricesa

Dairy – Whole milk powder05-JunUS$/t3,2053,226<1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.3,1432%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Dairy – Skim milk powder05-JunUS$/t2,0512,047<1%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.2,156-5%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Dairy – Cheddar cheese05-JunUS$/t3,9984,205-5%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.4,285-7%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Dairy – Anhydrous milk fat05-JunUS$/t6,2226,354-2%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.6,631-6%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart

a Global Dairy Trade prices are updated twice monthly on the first and third Tuesday of each month.

Movements in selected fruit and vegetable prices
Data attribution

Last reviewed:
14 Jun 2018