Weekly update - 15 November 2018

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Weekly ​Australian Climate,
Water and Agricultural Update

Key issues

  • During the week ending 14 November 2018 rainfall was recorded across large areas of eastern, western and northern Australia.
  • In cropping regions, rainfall totals of between 10 and 50 millimetres were recorded in central and northern New South Wales and eastern regions in Western Australia. Falls of between 10 and 25 millimetres were recorded in parts of southern Queensland. For remaining cropping regions, little or no rainfall was recorded.
  • For the week ending 13 November 2018, maximum and minimum temperatures were generally average across much of the country, with areas of -2°C to -6°C below average maximum and minimum temperatures across large areas of central Australia.
  • A wetter than average December is more likely for parts of south-eastern and south-western Australia. In contrast, parts northern Western Australia and western Tasmania are likely to be drier than average.
  • The mid-month climate outlook for December 2018 to February 2019 indicates a drier than average three months for large parts of Western Australia, western Tasmania and scattered parts of central Australia and Queensland. For much of the remainder of the country, there is no strong tendency towards either wetter or drier than average conditions.
  • During the next eight days, rainfall is expected across all states and territories, with the heaviest falls forecast for of the south-east and north of the country.
  • In cropping regions, falls of between 5 and 25 millimetres are expected across New South Wales, eastern Victoria and Queensland. Lower falls of between 1 and 10 millimetres are forecast for the remainder of Victoria and South Australia. Little to no rainfall is forecast for Western Australia during the next 8 days.
  • Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) decreased during the week ending 15  November  2018 by 133 gigalitres (GL) to 10,813 GL and are at 48 per cent of total capacity.
  • Allocation prices in the southern Murray-Darling Basin increased in the week ending 15  November  2018 to $394 per ML. This is an increase of $9 from the same time last week.

Climate

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Rainfall this week

During the week ending 14 November 2018 rainfall was recorded across large areas of eastern, western and northern Australia. Rainfall totals of between 10 and 50 millimetres were recorded across parts of northern and eastern New South Wales, southern and alpine regions in Victoria, parts of western, southern and northern Queensland, isolated areas of South Australia and parts of southern and central Western Australia. Similar totals were recorded across western Tasmania and scattered areas of the Northern Territory.

Higher rainfall totals in excess of 50 millimetres were recorded across large areas of central Western Australia and parts of the north of the Northern Territory.

In cropping regions, rainfall totals were highly variable. Falls of between 10 and 50 millimetres were recorded in central and northern New South Wales and eastern regions in Western Australia. Falls of between 10 and 25 millimetres were recorded in parts of southern Queensland. For remaining cropping regions, little or no rainfall was recorded.

Rainfall analysis for the week ending 14 November 2018

Map showing weekly rainfall totals in Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2018, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 14/11/2018

Note: The rainfall analyses and associated maps utilise data contained in the Bureau of Meteorology climate database, the Australian Data Archive for Meteorology (ADAM). The analyses are initially produced automatically from real-time data with limited quality control. They are intended to provide a general overview of rainfall across Australia as quickly as possible after the observations are received. For further information go to Weekly Rainfall Update.

Temperature anomalies this week

For the week ending 13 November 2018, maximum and minimum temperatures were generally average across much of the country. Areas of 2°C to 4°C above average maximum and minimum temperatures were recorded across parts of northern Australia. Below average (-2°C to -6°C) minimum and maximum temperatures were recorded across large areas of central Australia.

Maximum temperature anomalies for the week ending 13 November 2018

Map showing maximum temperature anomalies for Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2018, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 14/11/2018

Minimum temperature anomalies for the week ending 13 November 2018

Map showing minimum temperature anomalies for Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2018, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 14/11/2018

Note: Spatial temperature analyses are based on historical weekly temperature data provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. These temperature anomaly maps show the departure of the maximum and minimum temperatures from the average over the 1961 to 1990 reference period. For further information go to Daily maximum temperature for Australia.

Mid-month National Climate Outlook

The rainfall and temperature outlooks presented here show the likelihood, represented as a percentage, of experiencing wetter or drier (and warmer or cooler) than median climatic conditions for the given outlook periods. These climate outlooks are generated by ACCESS–S (Australian Community Climate Earth-System Simulator–Seasonal). ACCESS–S is the Bureau of Meteorology's dynamical (physics-based) weather and climate model used for monthly, seasonal and longer-lead climate outlooks. Prior to August 2018, climate outlooks were produced by the Bureau's earlier model, POAMA.

For further information, go to About the climate outlooks

The Bureau of Meteorology’s summer outlook suggests the developing El Niño is likely to be the most dominant climate driver for Australia. In summer, El Niño typically brings drier conditions to parts of northern Australia, but typically has less rainfall influence in the current drought areas in southeast Australia. El Niño also typically brings warmer than average conditions to large parts of Australia. 

A positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event is currently dominating Australia's weather and climate patterns. However, the Bureau's model suggests the positive IOD is likely to decay prior to summer, which is typical of its life cycle. During December to April, the IOD typically has little effect on Australian climate, and therefore is not expected to play a role over the coming summer.

A positive Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is likely for December. The increased chance of positive SAM over the next month is likely the primary driver of the wetter than average forecast for much of southeast Australia in December.

A wetter than average December is more likely in eastern and central New South Wales, parts of eastern and northern Victoria, the far south-west of Western Australia and the north-east of Tasmania. In contrast, parts northern Western Australia and western Tasmania are likely to be drier than average. For the remainder of the country there are roughly equal chances of a wetter or drier than average December (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 15 November 2018).

Chance of exceeding the median rainfall December 2018

 

The rainfall outlook for December 2018 to February 2019 indicates that a drier than average three months is more likely for large parts of Western Australia. Western Tasmania and scattered parts of central Australia and Queensland are also likely to record a drier than average 2018-19 summer. For the remainder of the country, there is no strong tendency towards either wetter or drier than average conditions (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 15 November 2018).

Chance of exceeding the median rainfall December 2018 to February 2019

 

The temperature outlook for December 2018 to February 2019 indicates that daytime temperatures are more likely to be warmer than average across Australia. Night-time temperatures are also likely to be warmer than average for much of the country, with the exception of the north-west of Western Australia, where the chances of warmer or cooler nights are roughly equal (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 15 November 2018).

Chance of exceeding the median maximum temperature December 2018 to February 2019

 

Chance of exceeding the median minimum temperature December 2018 to February 2019

 

Rainfall forecast for the next 8 days

During the next eight days, rainfall is expected across all states and territories, with the heaviest falls forecast for parts of the south-east, south-west and north of the country.

Rainfall totals of between 10 and 50 millimetres are forecast for much of central and eastern New South Wales, eastern and southern Victoria, parts of south-eastern Queensland, the north-east of Western Australia, Tasmania and the far north of the Northern Territory.

In cropping regions, rainfall of between 5 and 25 millimetres are expected across New South Wales, eastern Victoria and Queensland. Lower falls of between 1 and 10 millimetres are forecast for the remainder of Victoria and South Australia. Little to no rainfall is forecast for Western Australia during the next 8 days.

This rainfall forecast is produced from computer models. As it contains no input from weather forecasters, it is important to check local forecasts and warnings issued by the Bureau of Meteorology.

Total forecast rainfall (mm) for the period 15 to 22 November 2018

Map of the total forecast rainfall for the next 8 days. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2018, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 15/11/2018

Commodities

Current indicators – 15 November 2018

IndicatorWeek endedUnitLatest pricePrice week priorWeekly changePrice 12 months priorYear on year changeChart

Selected world indicator prices

Australian Dollar – AUD/USD Exchange Rate14-NovUS$/A$0.720.720%0.76-5%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Wheat – US no. 2 hard red winter wheat, fob Gulf13-NovUS$/t235237<1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.2235%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Coarse Grains – US no. 2 yellow corn, fob Gulf14-NovUS$/t162164-1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.1489%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Canola – Rapeseed, Europe, fob Hamburga13-NovUS$/t431430<1%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.438-2%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Cotton – Cotlook 'A' Index14-NovUSc/lb87.187.7<1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.79.69%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Sugar – Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, no.11 contract14-NovUSc/lb12.813.2-3%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.15.0-15%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Wool – Eastern Market Indicator08-NovAc/kg clean1,7761,854-4%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.1,6816%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Wool – Western Market Indicator09-NovAc/kg clean1,9312,005-4%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.1,72212%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart

Selected domestic crop indicator prices

Milling Wheat – ASW1, track quote, Port Adelaide, SA13-NovA$/t375377<1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.23262%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Feed Wheat – General purpose, Sydney, NSW14-NovA$/t440450-2%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.25374%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Feed Barley – Sydney, NSW14-NovA$/t4354350%25173%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Canola – Portland, Vic.29-OctA$/t597nana53611%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Grain Sorghum – Sydney, NSW14-NovA$/t4104100%30933%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart

Selected domestic livestock indicator prices

Beef – Eastern Young Cattle Indicator08-NovAc/kg cwt519535-3%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.579-10%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Mutton – Mutton indicator (18-24 kg fat score 2-3), Vic09-NovAc/kg cwt415422-2%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.451-8%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Lamb – Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator08-NovAc/kg cwt678711-5%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.6288%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Pig – Eastern Seaboard (60.1-75 kg), average of buyers & sellers02-NovAc/kg cwt280279<1%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.2761%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Goat – Eastern States (12.1-16 kg)12-NovAc/kg cwt5385380%48611%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Live cattle – Light steers ex Darwin to Indonesia10-NovAc/kg lwt3103100%330-6%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Live sheep – Live wether (Muchea WA saleyard) to Middle East05-Nov$/head100108na105-5%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart

Global Dairy Trade weighted average pricesa

Dairy – Whole milk powder06-NovUS$/t2,6552,729-3%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.2,852-7%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Dairy – Skim milk powder06-NovUS$/t1,9971,9771%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.1,81810%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Dairy – Cheddar cheese06-NovUS$/t3,2503,404-5%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.4,001-19%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Dairy – Anhydrous milk fat06-NovUS$/t5,0445,106-1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.6,894-27%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart

a Global Dairy Trade prices are updated twice monthly on the first and third Tuesday of each month.

Selected world indicator prices
Selected domestic crop indicator prices
Selected domestic livestock indicator prices
Global dairy trade weighted average prices
Movements in selected fruit and vegetable prices
Data attribution

Water

Water storages, water markets and water allocations - current week

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Last reviewed:
15 Nov 2018