Weekly update - 16 August 2018

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Weekly Australian Climate,
Water and Agricultural Update

Key issues

  • During the week ending 15 August 2018 little to no rainfall was recorded across much of mainland Australia, with falls restricted to the far south and west of the country. Rainfall totals of between 10 and 50 millimetres were recorded across isolated areas of southern New South Wales, south-western and central Victoria, southern South Australia, south-western Western Australia and much of Tasmania.
  • In cropping regions, weekly rainfall totals of between 1 and 10 millimetres were recorded in parts of southern New South Wales. For cropping regions in Victoria weekly rainfall totals were variable, ranging from 1 millimetres in the north to 25 millimetres in the south-west and south-east. In South Australian and Western Australian cropping regions, weekly rainfall totals ranged from 10 to 50 millimetres.
  • For the week ending 14 August 2018, maximum temperatures were generally average across most of the country. Minimum temperatures were generally below average, with parts of northern Australia recording night-time temperatures of 4°C to 8°C below average for this time of year.
  • A drier than average September is more likely across much of the eastern half of mainland Australia, the south-west of Western Australia and the Northern Territory, with parts of the south-east having a greater than 80 per cent chance of a drier than average month.
  • The mid-month climate outlook for Spring 2018 indicates a drier than average three months is more likely for southern inland New South Wales, Victoria, parts of central Queensland, southern South Australia, south-west Western Australia and Tasmania. There is no strong tendency towards either wetter or drier than average conditions for the remainder of Australia.
  • During the next eight days, rainfall is expected to be restricted to the far south of the country.
  • In cropping regions, rainfall totals of between 1 and 10 millimetres are forecast for southern New South Wales, much of Victoria, South Australia and Western Australia during the next eight days. Little or no rainfall is expected in cropping regions of central and northern New South Wales and Queensland.
  • Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) increased during the week ending 16 August 2018 by 165 gigalitres (GL) to 12,142GL and are at 54 per cent of total capacity. This is 17 percentage points or 3,931 GL less than at the same time last year.
  • Allocation prices in the southern Murray-Darling Basin increased in the week ending 16 August 2018 to $336 per ML. This is an increase of $26 from the same time last week.

Climate

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Rainfall this week

During the week ending 15 August 2018 little to no rainfall was recorded across much of mainland Australia, with falls restricted to the far south and west of the country. Rainfall totals of between 10 and 50 millimetres were recorded across isolated areas of southern New South Wales, much of south-western and central Victoria, the far southeast and central and western agricultural regions of South Australia, south-western Western Australia and much of Tasmania.

Higher rainfall totals in excess of 50 millimetres were recorded across alpine regions of Victoria, the far west of Western Australia and western Tasmania. The highest recorded weekly total was 174 millimetres at Mount Read, in western Tasmania.

In cropping regions, rainfall totals of between 1 and 10 millimetres were recorded across southern New South Wales, with falls of between 10 to 25 millimetres being recorded in the far east. For cropping regions in Victoria, weekly rainfall totals were variable, ranging from 1 to 10 millimetres in northern and central areas to 10 to 25 millimetres in the far west and east. In South Australian and Western Australian cropping regions, weekly rainfall totals ranged from 10 to 50 millimetres. Little to no rainfall was recorded in cropping regions in northern New South Wales and Queensland.

Rainfall analysis for the week ending 15 August 2018

Map showing weekly rainfall totals in Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2018, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 15/8/2018

Note: The rainfall analyses and associated maps utilise data contained in the Bureau of Meteorology climate database, the Australian Data Archive for Meteorology (ADAM). The analyses are initially produced automatically from real-time data with limited quality control. They are intended to provide a general overview of rainfall across Australia as quickly as possible after the observations are received. For further information go to Weekly Rainfall Update.

Temperature anomalies this week

For the week ending 14 August 2018, maximum temperatures were generally average across most of the country. Minimum temperatures were generally below average, with parts of Queensland, northern Western Australia and the Northern Territory recording night-time temperatures of 4°C to 8°C below average for this time of year.

Maximum temperature anomalies for the week ending 14 August 2018

Map showing maximum temperature anomalies for Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2018, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 15/8/2018

Minimum temperature anomalies for the week ending 14 August 2018

Map showing minimum temperature anomalies for Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2018, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 15/8/2018

Note: Spatial temperature analyses are based on historical weekly temperature data provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. These temperature anomaly maps show the departure of the maximum and minimum temperatures from the average over the 1961 to 1990 reference period. For further information go to Daily maximum temperature for Australia.

Mid-month National Climate Outlook

The rainfall and temperature outlooks presented here show the likelihood, represented as a percentage, of experiencing wetter or drier (and warmer or cooler) than median climatic conditions for the given outlook periods. These climate outlooks are generated by ACCESS–S (Australian Community Climate Earth-System Simulator–Seasonal). ACCESS–S is the Bureau of Meteorology's dynamical (physics-based) weather and climate model used for monthly, seasonal and longer-lead climate outlooks. Prior to August 2018, climate outlooks were produced by the Bureau's earlier model, POAMA.

For further information, go to About the climate outlooks

The current outlook reflects the neutral state of broad-scale climate drivers, such as El Niño, La Niña and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), meaning they are currently having little influence on Australia's climate. However, current observations and model outlooks indicate El Niño and a positive IOD could develop in spring. The latest model run from the Bureau of Meteorology’s operational climate model also suggests that sea surface temperatures will continue to be cooler than average to Australia's northwest which is likely acting to suppress rainfall over southern and central Australia.

A drier than average September is more likely across much of the eastern half of mainland Australia, the south-west of Western Australia and the Northern Territory, with parts of the south-east having a greater than 80 per cent chance of a drier than average month. For the remainder of the country there are roughly equal chances of a wetter or drier than average September (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 16 August 2018).

Chance of exceeding the median rainfall September 2018

 

The rainfall outlook for spring 2018 indicates that a drier than average three months is more likely for southern inland New South Wales, Victoria, parts of central Queensland, southern South Australia, south-west Western Australia and Tasmania. There is no strong tendency towards either wetter or drier than average conditions for much of remainder of the country (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 16 August 2018).

Chance of exceeding the median rainfall September to November 2018

 

The temperature outlook for September to November 2018 indicates that daytime temperatures are more likely to be warmer than average for Australia. Similarly, night-time temperatures are also likely to be warmer than average for most areas, except for parts of northern Australia and the southeast of the mainland (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 16 August 2018).

Chance of exceeding the median maximum temperature September to November 2018

 

Chance of exceeding the median minimum temperature September to November 2018

 

Rainfall forecast for the next 8 days

During the next eight days, rainfall is expected to be restricted to the far south of the country. Little to no rainfall is forecast across the remainder of the country. Rainfall totals of between 10 and 50 millimetres are forecast for south-western Western Australia, isolated areas of south-eastern New South Wales, southern and alpine areas of Victoria, parts of southern South Australia, and Tasmania. Heavier falls in excess of 50 millimetres are forecast for western Tasmania.

In cropping regions, rainfall totals of between 1 and 10 millimetres are forecast for southern New South Wales, much of Victoria, South Australia and Western Australia during the next eight days. Little to no rainfall is expected in cropping regions in central and northern New South Wales and Queensland.

This rainfall forecast is produced from computer models. As it contains no input from weather forecasters, it is important to check local forecasts and warnings issued by the Bureau of Meteorology.

Total forecast rainfall (mm) for the period 16 to 23 August 2018

Map of the total forecast rainfall for the next 8 days. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2018, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 16/8/2018

Commodities

Current indicators – 16 August 2018

IndicatorWeek endedUnitLatest pricePrice week priorWeekly changePrice 12 months priorYear on year changeChart

Selected world indicator prices

Australian Dollar – AUD/USD Exchange Rate15-AugUS$/A$0.730.74-1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.0.79-8%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Wheat – US no. 2 hard red winter wheat, fob Gulf14-AugUS$/t258260<1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.20625%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Coarse Grains – US no. 2 yellow corn, fob Gulf15-AugUS$/t164167-2%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.1537%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Canola – Rapeseed, Europe, fob Hamburga14-AugUS$/t436444-2%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.4214%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Cotton – Cotlook 'A' Index15-AugUSc/lb95.198.2-3%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.78.921%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Sugar – Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, no.11 contract15-AugUSc/lb10.510.8-3%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.13.2-20%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Wool – Eastern Market Indicator09-AugAc/kg clean1,9901,981<1%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.1,55028%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Wool – Western Market Indicator10-AugAc/kg clean2,1582,1291%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.1,60634%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart

Selected domestic crop indicator prices

Milling Wheat – ASW1, track quote, Port Adelaide, SA14-AugA$/t35932012%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.22361%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Feed Wheat – General purpose, Sydney, NSW15-AugA$/t42038011%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.23777%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Feed Barley – Sydney, NSW15-AugA$/t40036011%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.22677%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Canola – Portland, Vic.13-AugA$/t5755475%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.50215%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Grain Sorghum – Sydney, NSW15-AugA$/t385375 3%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.31423%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart

Selected domestic livestock indicator prices

Beef – Eastern Young Cattle Indicator09-AugAc/kg cwt463477-3%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.559-17%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Mutton – Mutton indicator (18-24 kg fat score 2-3), Vic10-AugAc/kg cwt394428-8%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.424-7%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Lamb – Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator09-AugAc/kg cwt761788-3%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.60426%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Pig – Eastern Seaboard (60.1-75 kg), average of buyers & sellers27-JulAc/kg cwt2472470%274-10%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Goat – Eastern States (12.1-16 kg)13-AugAc/kg cwt5605600%nana chart
Live cattle – Light steers ex Darwin to Indonesia04-AugAc/kg lwt300nana330-9%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Live sheep – Live wether (Muchea WA saleyard) to Middle East14-May$/head95nana116-18%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart

Global Dairy Trade weighted average pricesa

Dairy – Whole milk powder07-AugUS$/t2,9582,973<1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.3,155-6%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Dairy – Skim milk powder07-AugUS$/t1,9721,959<1%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.1,966<1%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Dairy – Cheddar cheese07-AugUS$/t3,6633,5962%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.3,932-7%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Dairy – Anhydrous milk fat07-AugUS$/t5,7095,6291%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.6,289-9%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart

a Global Dairy Trade prices are updated twice monthly on the first and third Tuesday of each month.

Selected world indicator prices
Selected domestic crop indicator prices
Selected domestic livestock indicator prices
Global dairy trade weighted average prices
Movements in selected fruit and vegetable prices
Data attribution

Water

Water storages, water markets and water allocations - current week

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Last reviewed:
16 Aug 2018