Weekly update - 16 November 2017

​​​​​Weekly Australian Climate,
Water and Agricultural Update

Key issues

  • During the week ending 15 November 2017 rainfall was mainly concentrated in central and northern Australia, although totals exceeding 5 millimetres were recorded in parts of all states and territories except Tasmania.
  • For the week ending 14 November 2017 maximum temperatures were 2°C to 6°C above average across southern and south-western Australia and below average (-2°C to -4°C) in parts of eastern and central Australia.
  • The mid-month climate outlook for December 2017 to February 2018 indicates that there are roughly equal chances of a wetter or drier three months for most of Australia except north-eastern New South Wales and around the Gulf of Carpentaria–where rainfall totals for the next three months are more likely to be lower than the median.
  • A low pressure trough and upper level low pressure systems are expected to generate widespread rainfall across eastern and northern Australia during the next eight days.
  • Water storage levels in the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) decreased during the week ending 16 November 2017 by 195 gigalitres (GL) to 15,848 GL and are at 70 per cent of total capacity. This is 15 percentage points or 3,351 GL less than at the same time last year.
  • Allocation prices in the southern Murray-Darling Basin declined in the week ending 16 November 2017 to $117 per ML. This is a decrease of $15 from the same time last week.

Climate

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Rainfall this week

During the week ending 15 November 2017 rainfall was mainly concentrated in central and northern Australia, although totals exceeding 5 millimetres were recorded in parts of all states and territories except Tasmania. Totals between 10 and 50 millimetres were recorded in central and coastal parts of Queensland, north-eastern and alpine areas of New South Wales and across most of central South Australia. Similar totals were recorded in south-western, central and northern Western Australia and across most of the Northern Territory. Higher totals between 50 and 100 millimetres were recorded in parts of South Australia, the Northern Territory and in north-eastern Queensland. The highest recorded weekly total was 202 millimetres at Mount Sophia, south of Cairns in Queensland. Little to no rainfall was recorded in Tasmania, and much of Victoria, New South Wales and southern Queensland.

Rainfall - week ending 15 November 2017

Map showing weekly rainfall totals in Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2017, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 15/11/2017

Note: The rainfall analyses and associated maps utilise data contained in the Bureau of Meteorology climate database, the Australian Data Archive for Meteorology (ADAM). The analyses are initially produced automatically from real-time data with limited quality control. They are intended to provide a general overview of rainfall across Australia as quickly as possible after the observations are received. For further information go to Weekly Rainfall Update.

Temperature anomalies this week

During the week ending 14 November 2017 maximum temperatures were 2°C to 6°C above average across much of southern and south-western Australia. They were 6°C to 10°C above average in western Victoria and eastern South Australia. Maximum temperatures were below average (-2°C to -4°C) in parts of eastern and central Australia. Minimum temperatures followed a similar pattern, 2°C to 4°C above average in the south and -2°C to -4°C below average in the east and centre of the country.

Maximum temperature anomalies - week ending 14 November 2017

Map showing maximum temperature anomalies in Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2017, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 14/11/2017

Minimum temperature anomalies - week ending 14 November 2017

Map showing minimum temperature anomalies in Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description.] 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2017, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 14/11/2017

Note: Spatial temperature analyses are based on historical weekly temperature data provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. These temperature anomaly maps show the departure of the maximum and minimum temperatures from their long-term averages. Temperature anomalies are calculated using high-resolution gridded datasets from 1911 onwards. For further information go to Daily maximum temperature for Australia.

Mid-month National Climate Outlook

The rainfall and temperature outlooks presented below show the likelihood, represented as a percentage, of experiencing wetter or drier (and warmer or cooler) than median climatic conditions for the given outlook periods. Climate outlooks are generated by the Predictive Climate Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA), a dynamical (physics-based) climate model developed by the Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric research division.

For further information, go to About the outlook

While the current ENSO Outlook is at La Niña WATCH, Australia’s major drivers remain at neutral levels. Most models suggest further cooling of the tropical eastern Pacific, reaching or exceeding La Niña thresholds during summer. However, models indicate that warming of the western Pacific, eastern Indian Ocean and seas around northern Australia that typically occur during La Niña is unlikely. Given the opposing rainfall signals from the ocean patterns around Australia, current outlooks show no strong tendency toward either a wetter or drier summer.

December 2017 rainfall is more likely to be below the median in coastal parts of Western Australia and around the Gulf of Carpentaria. For the remainder of Australia there are roughly equal chances of above or below median rainfall during December 2017 (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 16 November 2017).

Chance of exceeding the median rainfall December 2017

Map showing chance of exceeding the median rainfall. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

The rainfall outlook for December 2017 to February 2018 indicates that there are roughly equal chances of wetter or drier three months for most of Australia except north-eastern New South Wales and around the Gulf of Carpentaria–where rainfall totals for the next three months are more likely to be lower than the median (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 16 November 2017).

Chance of exceeding the median rainfall December 2017 to February 2018

Map showing chance of exceeding the median rainfall. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

The temperature outlook for December 2017 to February 2018 indicates that maximum and minimum temperatures are likely to be warmer than average for most of Australia except for parts of Western Australia, where there are roughly equal chances of warmer or cooler than average maximum and minimum temperatures. The chance of exceeding the maximum and minimum temperature is highest in southern Tasmania and far northern Australia (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 16 November 2017).

Chance of exceeding the median maximum temperature December 2017 to February 2018

Map showing chance of exceeding the median maximum temperature. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

Chance of exceeding the median minimum temperature December 2017 to February 2018

Map showing chance of exceeding the median minimum temperature. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

Rainfall forecast for the next 8 days

Widespread rainfall is forecast across eastern and northern Australia during the next eight days. A slow moving low pressure trough and upper level low pressure system are expected to generate rainfall totals between 10 and 50 millimetres in eastern South Australia, Victoria, New South Wales, Queensland and Tasmania. Similar totals are expected in parts of south-eastern and northern Western Australia and northern parts of the Northern Territory. Higher totals (between 50 and 100 millimetres) are forecast in western Victoria, central and southern Queensland, northern parts of the Northern Territory, and far northern parts of Western Australia.

This rainfall forecast is produced from computer models. As it contains no input from weather forecasters, it is important to check local forecasts and warnings issued by the Bureau of Meteorology.

Total forecast rainfall (mm) for the period 16 to 23 November 2017

Map of the total forecast rainfall for the next 8 days. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

Source: ©Commonwealth of Australia 2017, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 16/11/2017

Water

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Water availability

Water storage levels in the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) decreased during the week ending 16 November 2017 by 195 gigalitres (GL) to 15,848 GL and are at 70 per cent of total capacity. This is 15 percentage points or 3,351 GL less than at the same time last year.

Visit the interactive Tableau data dashboard

Water storages in the Murray-Darling Basin (NSW, Victoria and Queensland)

Line graph showing water storages in the Murray–Darling Basin (NSW, Victoria and Queensland) from 2001 to 2017, measured as a percentage of the total storage of 22,598 gigalitres. 

Information on water available in dams used for irrigation the Murray–Darling Basin from 1 January 2001 to 16 November 2017 is shown above. The top horizontal (short dash) line indicates the storage level during a similar time last year. The bottom horizontal (long dash) line indicates the amount of ‘dead’ or unusable storage.

Water allocations

On 15 November 2017 NSW Department of Primary Industries - Water announced allocation increases of:

  • 3% for NSW Murray general security to 35%.

On 15 November 2017 the Resource Manager for Northern Victoria announced seasonal determination increases of:

  • 20% for Victoria Broken low reliability to 20%
  • 3% for Victoria Campaspe low reliability to 33%
  • 1% for Victoria Goulburn high reliability to 94%
  • 1% for Victoria Loddon high reliability to 94%.

The current water allocations for the 2017–18 water trading season for licence holders in New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia water systems are summarised in the following table and charts.

Water allocations in the Murray–Darling Basin (NSW, Victoria and South Australia)

Allocations at

16 November 2017

7 November 2017

New South Wales

General security

High security

General security

High security

NSW Murray

35%

97%

32%

97%

NSW Murrumbidgee

33%

95%

33%

95%

NSW Lower Darling

100%

100%

100%

100%

NSW Macquarie and Cudgegong

38%

100%

38%

100%

NSW Hunter

100%

100%

100%

100%

NSW Lachlan

2%

100%

2%

100%

NSW Lower Namoi

7%

100%

7%

100%

NSW Upper Namoi

100%

100%

100%

100%

NSW Gwydir

16%

100%

16%

100%

NSW Border Rivers

100%(a)/11.1%(b)

100%

100%(a)/11.1%(b)

100%

NSW Peel

100%

100%

100%

100%

Victoria

Low reliability

High reliability

Low reliability

High reliability

Victoria Murray

0%

100%

0%

100%

Victoria Goulburn

0%

94%

0%

93%

Victoria Campaspe

33%

100%

30%

100%

Victoria Loddon

0%

94%

0%

93%

Victoria Bullarook

100%

100%

100%

100%

Victoria Broken

20%

100%

0%

100%

South Australia

 

Class 3a/3b

 

Class 3a/3b

South Australia Murray

 

100%

 

100%

(a) General Security A class. (b) General Security B class

Select water allocation percentages in the southern Murray-Darling Basin

 

 

 

 

Water markets

Allocation prices in the southern Murray-Darling Basin declined in the week ending 16 November 2017 to $117 per ML. This is a decrease of $15 from the same time last week. This contrasts with an average price of $138 in October across the whole southern MDB, and $78 during the same time last year.

Allocation trade activity in the southern Murray–Darling Basin

Allocation trade activity in the southern Murray-Darling Basin. The trades shown reflect market activity and do not encompass all register trades. The price line reflects locally fitted price values for the entire southern Murray-Darling Basin.  

The trades shown reflect estimated market activity and do not encompass all register trades. The price line reflects locally fitted price values for the entire southern Murray–Darling Basin. Data shown is current until 16 November 2017. Trade activity is shown as colour density.

Allocation trade prices, southern Murray–Darling Basin trade zones

 

Southern MDB

Victoria Goulburn

SA Murray

NSW Murrumbidgee

Victoria Murray

NSW Murray

Current week: 10/11/17 - 16/11/17

$116.97

$96.54

$137.26

$108.93

$137.28

$136.83

Last week: 03/11/17 - 09/11/17

$131.81

$98.22

NA

$147.70

$133.04

$135.54

October 2017

$137.89

$114.22

$176.71

$136.59

$143.94

$148.21

October 2016

$77.61

$88.96

$76.51

$50.38

$103.94

$76.94

Commodities

Current indicators – 16 November 2017

IndicatorWeek endedUnitLatest pricePrice week priorWeekly changePrice 12 months priorYear on year changeChart

Selected world indicator prices

Australian Dollar – AUD/USD Exchange Rate15-NovUS$/A$0.760.77-1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.0.760% chart
Wheat – US no. 2 hard red winter wheat, fob Gulf14-NovUS$/t2232201%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.19017%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Coarse Grains – US no. 2 yellow corn, fob Gulf15-NovUS$/t148151-2%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.149<1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Canola – Rapeseed, Europe, fob Hamburga14-NovUS$/t438436<1%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.4263%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Cotton – Cotlook 'A' Index15-NovUSc/lb79.679.4<1%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.78.02%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Sugar – Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, no.11 contract15-NovUSc/lb15.014.63%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.21.3-30%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Wool – Eastern Market Indicator09-NovAc/kg clean1,6811,6234%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.1,29030%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Wool – Western Market Indicator10-NovAc/kg clean1,7221,6743%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.1,36326%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart

Selected domestic crop indicator prices

Milling Wheat – ASW1, track quote, Port Adelaide, SA14-NovA$/t232231<1%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.20314%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Feed Wheat – General purpose, Sydney, NSW15-NovA$/t253258-2%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.2492%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Feed Barley – Sydney, NSW15-NovA$/t246251-2%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.17640%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Canola – Portland, Vic.13-NovA$/t5445361%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.5342%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Grain Sorghum – Sydney, NSW03-NovA$/t3093042%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.23333%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart

Selected domestic livestock indicator prices

Beef – Eastern Young Cattle Indicator09-NovAc/kg cwt579575<1%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.659-12%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Mutton – Mutton indicator (18-24 kg fat score 2-3), Vic17-NovAc/kg cwt4594512%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.39416%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Lamb – Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator02-NovAc/kg cwt620623<1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.54913%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Pig – Eastern Seaboard (60.1-75 kg), average of buyers & sellers03-NovAc/kg cwt2762760%378-27%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Goat – Eastern States (12.1-16 kg)13-NovAc/kg cwt486491-1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.589-17%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Live cattle – Light steers ex Darwin to Indonesia11-NovAc/kg lwt3303203%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.nana chart
Live sheep – Live wether (Muchea WA saleyard) to Middle East13-Nov$/head100105-5%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.929%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart

Global Dairy Trade weighted average pricesa

Dairy – Whole milk powder07-NovUS$/t2,8523,014-5%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.3,317-14%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Dairy – Skim milk powder07-NovUS$/t1,8181,7971%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.2,329-22%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Dairy – Cheddar cheese07-NovUS$/t4,0014,107-3%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.3,33220%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Dairy – Anhydrous milk fat07-NovUS$/t6,8946,841<1%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.5,14634%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart

a Global Dairy Trade prices are updated twice monthly on the first and third Tuesday of each month.

Movements in selected fruit and vegetable prices
Data attribution

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Last reviewed:
16 Nov 2017