Weekly update - 19 July 2018

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Weekly Australian Climate,
Water and Agricultural Update

Key issues

  • During the week ending 18 July 2018 rainfall was restricted to the far south of the country. Rainfall totals of between 10 and 50 millimetres were recorded across eastern and south-western Victoria, far south-eastern South Australia, south-western Western Australia and much of Tasmania.
  • In cropping regions, weekly rainfall totals of between 1 and 5 millimetres were common in southern New South Wales and South Australia. For cropping regions in Victoria, weekly rainfall totals were variable, ranging from 1 to 5 millimetres in the north to 15 to 25 millimetres in the south.  In Western Australia, rainfall totals of between 5 and 15 millimetres were recorded across most cropping regions.
  • For the week ending 17 July 2018, maximum temperatures were average for much of the country. In contrast, minimum temperatures were generally below average for this time of year.
  • The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains in a neutral state—neither El Niño nor La Niña. However, the latest climate model outlooks and recent warming in the tropical Pacific Ocean indicate that there is an increased chance of El Niño forming in late spring. The Bureau of Meteorology ENSO Outlook status remains at El Niño WATCH.
  • The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral. However, three of the six models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology suggest a positive IOD event may develop during late winter to early spring. A positive IOD event typically reduces winter–spring rainfall in central and southern Australia.
  • During the next eight days, rainfall is expected to be limited to the south-west and far south-east of mainland Australia, and most of Tasmania. Little to no rainfall is forecast across the remainder of the country.
  • Rainfall totals of between 1 and 10 millimetres are forecast for southern New South Wales. Higher totals of between 5 and 25 millimetres are expected for cropping regions in Victoria and South Australia. In Western Australia, falls of between 5 and 50 millimetres are expected during the next eight days.
  • Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) increased during the week ending 19 July 2018 by 17 gigalitres (GL) to 11,810 GL and are at 52 per cent of total capacity. This is 17 percentage points or 3,892 GL less than at the same time last year.
  • Allocation prices in the southern Murray–Darling Basin increased in the week ending 19 July 2018 to $235 per ML. This is an increase of $20 from the same time last week.

Climate

[expand all]

Rainfall this week

During the week ending 18 July 2018 little to no rainfall was recorded across much of mainland Australia, with falls restricted to the far south of the country. Rainfall totals of between 10 and 50 millimetres were recorded across areas of eastern and south-western Victoria, far south-eastern South Australia, south-western Western Australia and much of Tasmania. The highest recorded weekly total was 91 millimetres at Mount Read, in western Tasmania.

In cropping regions, rainfall totals of between 1 and 5 millimetres were recorded in southern New South Wales and South Australia. For cropping regions in Victoria, weekly rainfall totals were variable, ranging from 1 to 5 millimetres in the north to 15 to 25 millimetres in the south.  In Western Australia, rainfall totals of between 5 and 15 millimetres were recorded across most cropping regions. Little to no rainfall was recorded across cropping regions in Queensland, and central and northern New South Wales.

Rainfall analysis for the week ending 18 July 2018

Map showing weekly rainfall totals in Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2018, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 18/7/2018

Note: The rainfall analyses and associated maps utilise data contained in the Bureau of Meteorology climate database, the Australian Data Archive for Meteorology (ADAM). The analyses are initially produced automatically from real-time data with limited quality control. They are intended to provide a general overview of rainfall across Australia as quickly as possible after the observations are received. For further information go to Weekly Rainfall Update.

Temperature anomalies this week

For the week ending 17 July 2018, maximum temperatures were average across much of the country. Maximum temperatures were slightly above average (2°C to 4°C) across much of eastern and central Western Australia and western South Australia. In contrast, minimum temperatures were below average across much of Australia, with much of eastern, central and northern Australia recording night-time temperatures of between 2°C and 8°C below average for this time of year.

Maximum temperature anomalies for the week ending 17 July 2018

Map showing maximum temperature anomalies in Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2018, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 18/7/2018

Minimum temperature anomalies for the week ending 17 July 2018

Map showing minimum temperature anomalies in Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description.] 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2018, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 18/7/2018

Note: Spatial temperature analyses are based on historical weekly temperature data provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. These temperature anomaly maps show the departure of the maximum and minimum temperatures from the average over the 1961 to 1990 reference period. For further information go to Daily maximum temperature for Australia.

Rainfall forecast for the next 8 days

During the next eight days, rainfall is expected to be limited to the south-west and far south-east of mainland Australia, and most of Tasmania. Little to no rainfall is forecast across the remainder of the country. Rainfall totals of between 10 and 50 millimetres are forecast for the far south-west of Western Australia, alpine areas of New South Wales, southern and alpine areas of Victoria, parts of southern South Australia, and western and northern Tasmania. Heavier falls of between 50 and 150 millimetres are forecast for western Tasmania.

In cropping regions, rainfall totals of between 1 and 10 millimetres are forecast for southern New South Wales. Higher totals of between 5 and 25 millimetres are expected for cropping regions in Victoria and South Australia. In Western Australia, falls of between 5 and 50 millimetres are expected during the next eight days. Little to no rainfall is forecast for cropping regions in northern New South Wales and Queensland.

Total forecast rainfall (mm) for the period 19 to 26 July 2018

Map of the total forecast rainfall for the next 8 days. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2018, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 19/7/2018

El Niño–Southern Oscillation Update

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains in a neutral state—neither El Niño nor La Niña. However, the latest climate model outlooks and recent warming in the tropical Pacific Ocean indicate that there is an increased chance of El Niño forming in late spring. The Bureau of Meteorology ENSO Outlook status remains at El Niño WATCH.

Oceanic indicators are currently neutral but are showing some signs of potential El Niño development. Sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific Ocean are about 0.5 degrees warmer than average. Likewise, sub-surface waters in the eastern tropical Pacific are warmer than average, although these have eased slightly in the past fortnight. Atmospheric indicators remain neutral, but the 30-day Southern Oscillation Index has been negative since the middle of June.

The majority of international climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology indicate that the tropical Pacific Ocean will continue to warm but stay in the neutral range during July and August. However, four of eight climate models indicate that ocean temperatures are likely to reach El Niño thresholds by October 2018, with six of eight models exceeding the El Niño threshold value during December 2018. El Niño is often, but not always, associated with below average rainfall across eastern and northern Australia during winter and spring. Daytime temperatures also tend to be above average over southern Australia.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral. The most recent weekly IOD index value (to 15 July) is −0.1 °C. Three of the six models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology suggest a positive IOD event may develop during late winter to early spring, with a fourth model close to meeting threshold valves for a positive IOD. A positive IOD event typically reduces winter–spring rainfall in central and southern Australia, and can therefore exacerbate any potential El Niño driven rainfall deficiencies. (Bureau of Meteorology, ‘ENSO Wrap-Up’, 17 July 2018).

If El Niño were to form in 2018 it would likely be late in the year, at which point it could have little impact on rainfall patterns in Australia. The impact of an El Niño event on agricultural production is not uniform and is difficult to predict. While reduced rainfall is often associated with El Niño, the timing of the rainfall can have a significant effect on crop and pasture production. The effect of El Niño on Australia’s agricultural production depends on the intensity of the event and the timing of rainfall.

Commodities

Current indicators – 19 July 2018

IndicatorWeek endedUnitLatest pricePrice week priorWeekly changePrice 12 months priorYear on year changeChart

Selected world indicator prices

Australian Dollar – AUD/USD Exchange Rate18-JulUS$/A$0.740.740%0.78-5%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Wheat – US no. 2 hard red winter wheat, fob Gulf17-JulUS$/t228234-3%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.237-4%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Coarse Grains – US no. 2 yellow corn, fob Gulf18-JulUS$/t153155-1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.157-3%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Canola – Rapeseed, Europe, fob Hamburga17-JulUS$/t426422<1%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.4192%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Cotton – Cotlook 'A' Index18-JulUSc/lb97.394.3<1%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.83.217%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Sugar – Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, no.11 contract18-JulUSc/lb11.111.4-3%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.14.222%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Wool – Eastern Market Indicator12-JulAc/kg clean1,9811,994<1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.1,52230%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Wool – Western Market Indicator13-JulAc/kg clean2,1292,154-1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.1,57036%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart

Selected domestic crop indicator prices

Milling Wheat – ASW1, track quote, Port Adelaide, SA17-JulA$/t288287<1%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.25613%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Feed Wheat – General purpose, Sydney, NSW18-JulA$/t3753653%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.27536%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Feed Barley – Sydney, NSW18-JulA$/t3853607%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.20093%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Canola – Portland, Vic.16-JulA$/t523521<1%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.5103%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Grain Sorghum – Sydney, NSW18-JulA$/t360350 3%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.30917%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart

Selected domestic livestock indicator prices

Beef – Eastern Young Cattle Indicator12-JulAc/kg cwt503512-2%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.598-16%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Mutton – Mutton indicator (18-24 kg fat score 2-3), Vic13-JulAc/kg cwt517538-4%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.43220%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Lamb – Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator12-JulAc/kg cwt7247151%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.60520%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Pig – Eastern Seaboard (60.1-75 kg), average of buyers & sellers06-JulAc/kg cwt2512510%279-10%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Goat – Eastern States (12.1-16 kg)16-JulAc/kg cwt5365360%683-22%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Live cattle – Light steers ex Darwin to Indonesia14-JulAc/kg lwt2902852%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.nana chart
Live sheep – Live wether (Muchea WA saleyard) to Middle East14-May$/head95nana116-18%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart

Global Dairy Trade weighted average pricesa

Dairy – Whole milk powder17-JulUS$/t2,9732,9052%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.3,114-5%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Dairy – Skim milk powder17-JulUS$/t1,9591,9132%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.2,024-3%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Dairy – Cheddar cheese17-JulUS$/t3,5963,713-3%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.4,112-13%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Dairy – Anhydrous milk fat17-JulUS$/t5,6295,937-5%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.6,577-14%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart

a Global Dairy Trade prices are updated twice monthly on the first and third Tuesday of each month.

Selected world indicator prices
Selected domestic crop indicator prices
Selected domestic livestock indicator prices
Global dairy trade weighted average prices
Movements in selected fruit and vegetable prices
Data attribution

Water

Water storages, water markets and water allocations - current week

​​
T​h​e Tableau dashboard may not meet accessibility requirements. For information about the contents of these dashboards contact ABARES.​​ ​

​​​​​​​​
Last reviewed:
19 Jul 2018