Weekly update - 19 October 2017

Weekly Australian Climate,
Water and Agricultural Update

Key issues

  • During the week ending 18 October 2017 rainfall totals between 5 and 50 millimetres were recorded in all states and territories with higher totals (between 50 and 400 millimetres) in parts of north-eastern New South Wales and across much of eastern Queensland.
  • For the week ending 17 October 2017 maximum temperatures were above average (2°C to 4°C) across southern Australia and isolated parts of northern Australia. They were below average (-2°C to -4°C) in south-eastern Queensland and the Gascoyne region in Western Australia.
  • Following a dry September 2017 in eastern and southern Australia, October-to-date (1 to 18 October) has been particularly wet in eastern and southern Queensland and north-eastern New South Wales. Month-to-date rainfall is also well above average in central and northern South Australia, southern and northern parts of the Northern Territory, and in southern, central and northern Western Australia.
  • While the recent heavy rainfall across eastern and southern Queensland and north-eastern New South Wales has arrived too late to benefit winter crop production, it has provided sufficient moisture for summer crop planting to commence and is likely to provide a timely boost to pasture production.
  • For the next eight days, widespread rainfall is forecast in eastern Australia, with totals between 5 and 50 millimetres expected across most of Queensland, New South Wales, Victoria and Tasmania.
  • Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) decreased during the week ending 19 October 2017 by 83 gigalitres (GL) to 16,419 GL and are at 73 per cent of total capacity. This is 8 percentage points or 1,839 GL less than at the same time last year.
  • Allocation prices in the southern Murray–Darling Basin remained flat in the week ending 19 October 2017 at $141 per ML.

Climate

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Rainfall this week

During the week ending 18 October 2017 rainfall totals between 5 and 50 millimetres were recorded in all states and territories. Higher totals (between 50 and 400 millimetres) were recorded in parts of north-eastern New South Wales and across much of eastern Queensland–particularly in the south-east. The highest recorded weekly total was 589 millimetres at Makowata near Bundaberg in Queensland. Little to no rainfall was recorded in far western Queensland, western South Australia, around the Gascoyne region and eastern parts of Western Australia.

Rainfall - week ending 18 October 2017

Map showing weekly rainfall totals in Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2017, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 18/10/2017

Note: The rainfall analyses and associated maps utilise data contained in the Bureau of Meteorology climate database, the Australian Data Archive for Meteorology (ADAM). The analyses are initially produced automatically from real-time data with limited quality control. They are intended to provide a general overview of rainfall across Australia as quickly as possible after the observations are received. For further information go to Weekly Rainfall Update.

Temperature anomalies this week

During the week ending 17 October 2017 maximum temperatures were above average (2°C to 4°C) across southern Australia and isolated parts of northern Australia. They were below average (-2°C to -4°C) in south-eastern Queensland and the Gascoyne region in Western Australia. Minimum temperatures were above average (2°C to 6°C) across parts of western, northern and eastern Australia. They were close to average for the remainder of the country.

Maximum temperature anomalies - week ending 17 October 2017

Map showing maximum temperature anomalies in Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2017, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 17/10/2017

Minimum temperature anomalies - week ending 17 October 2017

Map showing minimum temperature anomalies in Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description.] 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2017, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 17/10/2017

Note: Spatial temperature analyses are based on historical weekly temperature data provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. These temperature anomaly maps show the departure of the maximum and minimum temperatures from their long-term averages. Temperature anomalies are calculated using high-resolution gridded datasets from 1911 onwards. For further information go to Daily maximum temperature for Australia.

Monthly rainfall to date

Following a dry September 2017 in eastern and southern Australia, October-to-date (1 to 18 October) has been particularly wet in eastern and southern Queensland and north-eastern New South Wales. Some areas around Bundaberg have already received seven times their monthly average rainfall for October. Month-to-date rainfall is also well above average in central and northern South Australia, southern and northern parts of the Northern Territory, and in southern, central and northern Western Australia.

The heavy rainfall events in Queensland and north-eastern New South Wales were driven by a series of coastal troughs and upper-level low pressure systems. There are reports of damage to broadacre and vegetable crops in some areas around Bundaberg, and delays to the start of grain harvesting across southern Queensland. While the rainfall arrived too late to benefit winter crop production, it has provided sufficient moisture for summer crop planting to commence and is likely to provide a timely boost to pasture production.

Rainfall percentages 1 to 18 October 2017

Map showing rainfall percentages in Australia. Source data provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

Source: Australian Bureau of Meteorology

Rainfall forecast for the next 8 days

Widespread rainfall is forecast for most of eastern Australia during the next eight days. A low pressure trough and series of cold fronts are expected to generate rainfall totals between 5 and 50 millimetres across most of Queensland, New South Wales, Victoria and Tasmania. Higher totals of up to 150 millimetres are forecast for isolated areas around Brisbane and Cairns. Little to no rainfall is forecast for the remainder of the country, except south-western Western Australia and western parts of the Top End–with rainfall totals between 5 and 25 millimetres.

This rainfall forecast is produced from computer models. As it contains no input from weather forecasters, it is important to check local forecasts and warnings issued by the Bureau of Meteorology.

Total forecast rainfall (mm) for the period 19 to 26 October 2017

Map of the total forecast rainfall for the next 8 days. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

Source: ©Commonwealth of Australia 2017, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 19/10/2017

Water

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Water availability

Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) decreased during the week ending 19 October 2017 by 83 gigalitres (GL) to 16,419 GL and are at 73 per cent of total capacity. This is 8 percentage points or 1,839 GL less than at the same time last year.

Visit the interactive Tableau data dashboard

Water storages in the Murray-Darling Basin (NSW, Victoria and Queensland)

Line graph showing water storages in the Murray–Darling Basin (NSW, Victoria and Queensland) from 2000 to 2017, measured as a percentage of the total storage of 22,598 gigalitres.

Information on water available in dams used for irrigation the Murray–Darling Basin from 1 January 2001 to 19 October 2017 is shown above. The top horizontal (short dash) line indicates the storage level during a similar time last year. The bottom horizontal (long dash) line indicates the amount of ‘dead’ or unusable storage.

Water allocations

On 16 October 2017 NSW Department of Primary Industries – Water announced allocation increases of:

  • 1% for NSW Murray general security to 30%

On 16 October 2017 the Resource Manager for Northern Victoria announced seasonal determination increases of:

  • 9% for Victoria Broken high reliability to 50%
  • 5% for Victoria Campaspe low reliability to 29%
  • 10% for Victoria Goulburn high reliability to 91%
  • 10% for Victoria Loddon high reliability to 91%

The current water allocations for the 2017–18 water trading season for licence holders in New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia water systems are summarised in the following table and charts.

Water allocations in the Murray–Darling Basin (NSW, Victoria and South Australia)

Allocations at

19 October 2017

3 October 2017

New South Wales

General security

High security

General security

High security

NSW Murray

30%

97%

29%

97%

NSW Murrumbidgee

33%

95%

33%

95%

NSW Lower Darling

100%

100%

100%

100%

NSW Macquarie and Cudgegong

38%

100%

38%

100%

NSW Hunter

100%

100%

100%

100%

NSW Lachlan

2%

100%

2%

100%

NSW Lower Namoi

7%

100%

7%

100%

NSW Upper Namoi

100%

100%

100%

100%

NSW Gwydir

12%

100%

12%

100%

NSW Border Rivers

100%(a)/11.1%(b)

100%

100%(a)/11.1%(b)

100%

NSW Peel

100%

100%

100%

100%

Victoria

Low reliability

High reliability

Low reliability

High reliability

Victoria Murray

0%

100%

0%

100%

Victoria Goulburn

0%

91%

0%

81%

Victoria Campaspe

29%

100%

24%

100%

Victoria Loddon

0%

91%

0%

81%

Victoria Bullarook

100%

100%

100%

100%

Victoria Broken

0%

50%

0%

41%

South Australia

 

Class 3a/3b

 

Class 3a/3b

South Australia Murray

 

100%

 

100%

(a) General Security A class. (b) General Security B class

Selected water allocation percentages in the southern Murray-Darling Basin

 

 

 

 

Water markets

Allocation prices in the southern Murray–Darling Basin remained flat in the week ending 19 October 2017 at $141. This contrasts with an average price of $122 in September across the whole southern MDB, and $97 during the same time last year.

Allocation trade activity in the southern Murray–Darling Basin

Allocation trade activity in the southern Murray-Darling Basin. The trades shown reflect market activity and do not encompass all register trades. The price line reflects locally fitted price values for the entire southern Murray-Darling Basin.  

The trades shown reflect estimated market activity and do not encompass all register trades. The price line reflects locally fitted price values for the entire southern Murray–Darling Basin. Data shown is current until Thursday 19 October 2017. Trade activity is shown as colour density.

Allocation trade prices, southern Murray–Darling Basin trade zones
 

Southern MDB

Victoria Goulburn

SA Murray

NSW Murrumbidgee

Victoria Murray

NSW Murray

Current week: 13/10/17 - 19/10/17

$140.72

$123.16

$152.96

$150.00

$142.45

$148.52

Last week: 06/10/17 - 12/10/17

$140.98

$117.29

$133.94

$149.84

$152.88

$148.85

September 2017

$122.20

$102.43

$148.68

$127.87

$130.27

$131.00

September 2016

$96.51

$119.58

$172.27

$64.04

$119.94

$109.64

Commodities

Current indicators – 19 October 2017

IndicatorWeek endedUnitLatest pricePrice week priorWeekly changePrice 12 months priorYear on year changeChart

Selected world indicator prices

Australian Dollar – AUD/USD Exchange Rate18-OctUS$/A$0.780.780%0.763%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.chart
Wheat – US no. 2 hard red winter wheat, fob Gulf17-OctUS$/t212214<1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.1959%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.chart
Coarse Grains – US no. 2 yellow corn, fob Gulf18-OctUS$/t149150<1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.154-3%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.chart
Canola – Rapeseed, Europe, fob Hamburga17-OctUS$/t424436-3%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.429-1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.chart
Cotton – Cotlook 'A' Index18-OctUSc/lb78.178.7<1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.79.6-2%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.chart
Sugar – Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, no.11 contract18-OctUSc/lb14.214.20%23.0-38%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.chart
Wool – Eastern Market Indicator12-OctAc/kg clean1,5661,5501%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.1,31819%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.chart
Wool – Western Market Indicator13-OctAc/kg clean1,6211,608<1%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.1,34820%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.chart

Selected domestic crop indicator prices

Milling Wheat – ASW1, track quote, Port Adelaide, SA03-OctA$/t2412286%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.20816%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.chart
Feed Wheat – General purpose, Sydney, NSW18-OctA$/t2732730%2519%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.chart
Feed Barley – Sydney, NSW18-OctA$/t2562560%19233%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.chart
Canola – Portland, Vic.16-OctA$/t538539<1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.534<1%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.chart
Grain Sorghum – Sydney, NSW18-OctA$/t3143140%22937%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.chart

Selected domestic livestock indicator prices

Beef – Eastern Young Cattle Indicator12-OctAc/kg cwt5385252%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.723-26%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.chart
Mutton – Mutton indicator (18-24 kg fat score 2-3), Vic13-OctAc/kg cwt3883734%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.458-15%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.chart
Lamb – Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator12-OctAc/kg cwt6216023%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.56210%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.chart
Pig – Eastern Seaboard (60.1-75 kg), average of buyers & sellers06-OctAc/kg cwt2772770%377-27%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.chart
Goat – Eastern States (12.1-16 kg)16-OctAc/kg cwt4624571%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.587-21%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.chart
Live cattle – Light steers ex Darwin to Indonesia14-OctAc/kg lwt3303203%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.nanachart
Live sheep – Live wether (Muchea WA saleyard) to Middle East16-Oct$/head1141086%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.nanachart

Global Dairy Trade weighted average pricesa

Dairy – Whole milk powder17-OctUS$/t3,0143,037<1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.2,7609%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.chart
Dairy – Skim milk powder17-OctUS$/t1,7971,895-5%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.2,204-18%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.chart
Dairy – Cheddar cheese17-OctUS$/t4,1074,109<1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.3,29025%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.chart
Dairy – Anhydrous milk fat17-OctUS$/t6,8416,5045%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.5,00737%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.chart

a Global Dairy Trade prices are updated twice monthly on the first and third Tuesday of each month.

Movements in selected fruit and vegetable prices
Data attribution

Last reviewed:
19 Oct 2017