Weekly update - 20 July 2017

​​​​​​​Weekly Australian Climate,
Water and Agricultural Update

Key issues

  • During the week ending 19 July 2017 rainfall totals between 5 and 50 millimetres were recorded in south-western Western Australia, southern South Australia, south-eastern and north-eastern New South Wales, south-eastern and north-eastern Queensland and across most of Victoria and Tasmania.
  • For the week ending 18 July 2017 maximum temperatures were generally between 2°C and 4°C above average over most of mainland Australia. Minimum temperatures were between 2°C and 4°C above average in northern Australia and between 2°C and 4°C below average in parts of south-eastern Australia.
  • The forecast for the next eight days indicates that little to no rainfall is expected across most of mainland Australia. Rainfall totals between 5 and 50 millimetres are expected in coastal parts of south-western Western Australia, south-eastern South Australia, and southern and alpine regions of New South Wales and Victoria. Rainfall totals exceeding 50 millimetres are forecast for western Tasmania.
  • All international climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology indicate neutral El Niño–Southern Oscillation conditions are likely for the remainder of 2017.
  • Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) increased during the week ending 20 July 2017 by 14 gigalitres (GL) to 15,702 GL and are at 69 per cent of total capacity. This is 23 percentage points or 5,286 GL more than at the same time last year.
  • New South Wales Murray and Murrumbidgee general security allocations have increased to 13 per cent and 20 per cent respectively.
  • Allocation prices in the southern Murray–Darling Basin fell in the week up to 20 July 2017 in most systems. Average prices across the whole southern MDB fell to $87.44. This is a decrease of $9.93 or 10 per cent from the same time last week. This contrasts with an average price of $32.29 in June across the whole southern MDB.
  • The world wheat indicator price has fallen 6 per cent in the week ending 18 July 2016, reflecting increased supplies of grain entering the supply chain as US winter wheat harvest progresses.

Climate

[expand all]

Rainfall this week

During the week ending 19 July 2017 widespread rainfall was recorded in southern, eastern and south-western Australia. Totals between 5 and 50 millimetres were recorded in south-western Western Australia, southern South Australia, and most of Victoria and Tasmania. Similar totals were recorded in north-eastern and alpine regions of New South Wales, and across parts of south-eastern and north-eastern Queensland. The highest recorded weekly total was 107 millimetres at Denbarker, north-west of Albany in Western Australia.

Following a very dry June 2017, rainfall recorded during the first half of July has improved topsoil moisture across a number of winter cropping regions. However, rainfall totals for July-to-date remain well below average across much of central and southern New South Wales, northern and eastern cropping zones in Western Australia, northern Victoria and parts of South Australia. These continued dry conditions are likely to have affected the establishment of late sown crops and pasture production, and timely follow up rainfall is needed to promote the growth of winter crops and pastures.

The rainfall analyses and associated maps utilise data contained in the Bureau of Meteorology climate database, the Australian Data Archive for Meteorology (ADAM). The analyses are initially produced automatically from real-time data with limited quality control. They are intended to provide a general overview of rainfall across Australia as quickly as possible after the observations are received.

For further information go to Weekly Rainfall Update

Rainfall - week ending 19 July 2017

Map showing weekly rainfall totals in Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2017, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 19/07/2017

Temperature anomalies this week

During the week ending 18 July 2017 maximum temperatures were generally between 2°C and 4°C above average over most of mainland Australia, and between 4°C and 6°C above average across large parts of central Queensland, central Northern Territory and north-western Western Australia. Minimum temperatures were between 2°C and 4°C above average across most of Queensland, the Northern Territory and parts of northern Western Australia. Similar anomalies were observed in isolated parts of South Australia, and southern Western Australia. Minimum temperatures were between 2°C and 4°C below average in isolated parts of Western Australia, New South Wales and Victoria. For the remainder of Australia, minimum temperatures were close to average.

Maximum temperature anomalies - week ending 18 July 2017

Map showing maximum temperature anomalies in Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2017, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 18/07/2017

Minimum temperature anomalies - week ending 18 July 2017

Map showing minimum temperature anomalies in Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description.] 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2017, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 18/07/2017

Note: Spatial temperature analyses are based on historical weekly temperature data provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. These temperature anomaly maps show the departure of the maximum and minimum temperatures from their long-term averages. Temperature anomalies are calculated using high-resolution gridded datasets from 1911 onwards. For further information go to Daily maximum temperature for Australia.

Rainfall forecast for the next 8 days

Little to no rainfall is forecast for most of mainland Australia during the next eight days. Rainfall totals between 5 and 50 millimetres are expected in coastal parts of south-western Western Australia, south-eastern South Australia, and southern and alpine regions of New South Wales and Victoria. Rainfall totals exceeding 50 millimetres are forecast for western Tasmania.

Total forecast rainfall (mm) for the period 20 to 27 July 2017

Map of the total forecast rainfall for the next 8 days. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2017, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 13/07/2017

El Niño–Southern Oscillation Update

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains at neutral levels. All climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology indicate neutral ENSO conditions are likely to continue for the remainder of 2017.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently at neutral levels. Two of six climate models suggest a positive IOD may develop in the coming months. The remaining climate model outlooks are within neutral boundaries. A positive IOD is typically associated with a drier than average winter and spring for southern and central Australia (Bureau of Meteorology ‘ENSO Wrap-Up’, 18 July 2017).

Water

[expand all]

Water availability

Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) increased during the week ending 20 July 2017 by 14 gigalitres (GL) to 15,702 GL and are at 69 per cent of total capacity. This is 23 percentage points or 5,286 GL more than at the same time last year.

Water storages in the Murray-Darling Basin (NSW, Victoria and Queensland)

Line graph showing water storages in the Murray–Darling Basin (NSW, Victoria and Queensland) from 2000 to 2017, measured as a percentage of the total storage of 22,598 gigalitres. 

Information on irrigation water available in the Murray–Darling Basin from 1 January 2001 to 20 July 2017 is shown above. The top horizontal (short dash) line indicates the storage level during a similar time last year. The bottom horizontal (long dash) line indicates the amount of ‘dead’ or unusable storage.

Water allocations

The current water allocations for the 2017–18 water trading season for licence holders in New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia water systems are summarised in the following table. NSW Murray and Murrumbidgee general security allocations have increased to 13 per cent and 20 per cent respectively.

Allocations at

20 July 2017

13 July 2017

New South Wales

General security

High security

General security

High security

NSW Murray Valley

13%

97%

11%

97%

NSW Murrumbidgee Valley

20%

95%

17%

95%

NSW Lower Darling

100%

100%

100%

100%

NSW Macquarie and Cudgegong Valley

36%

100%

36%

100%

NSW Hunter Valley

100%

100%

100%

100%

NSW Lachlan Valley

0%

100%

0%

100%

NSW Lower Namoi

0%

100%

0%

100%

NSW Upper Namoi

100%

100%

100%

100%

NSW Gwydir Valley

0.0%

100%

0.0%

100%

NSW Border Rivers

100%(a) / 8%(b)

100%

100%(a) / 8%(b)

100%

NSW Peel Valley

100%

100%

100%

100%

Victoria

Low reliability

High reliability

Low reliability

High reliability

Victoria Murray Valley

0%

66%

0%

66%

Victoria Goulburn

0%

36%

0%

36%

Victoria Campaspe

0%

100%

0%

100%

Victoria Loddon

0%

36%

0%

36%

Victoria Bullarook

0%

16%

0%

0%

Victoria Broken

0%

3%

0%

1%

South Australia

 

High security

 

High security

South Australia Murray Valley

 

100%

100%

*Carryover water may also be available
(a) General Security A class. (b) General Security B class

Water markets

Allocation prices in the southern Murray–Darling Basin fell in the week up to 20 July 2017 in most systems. Average prices across the whole southern MDB fell to $87.44. This is a decrease of $9.93 or 10 per cent from the same time last week. This contrasts with an average price of $32.29 in June across the whole southern MDB.

Allocation trade activity in the southern Murray-Darling Basin

Allocation trade activity in the southern Murray-Darling Basin. The trades shown reflect market activity and do not encompass all register trades. The price line reflects locally fitted price values for the entire southern Murray-Darling Basin. 

The trades shown reflect market activity and do not encompass all register trades. The price line reflects locally fitted price values for the entire southern Murray-Darling Basin. Data shown is current until Thursday 20 July, 2017.

Allocation trade prices, southern Murray–Darling Basin trade zones

 

Southern MDB

Victoria Goulburn

SA Murray

NSW Murrumbidgee

Victoria Murray

NSW Murray

Current week: 14/07/17 - 20/07/17

$87.44

$68.88

$120.00

$99.26

$80.38

$106.76

Last week: 07/07/17 - 13/07/17

$97.38

$50.00

NA

$102.75

$100.00

$95.44

June 2017

$32.30

$40.85

$38.41

$4.82

$41.25

$15.03

June 2016

$158.80

$196.40

$195.36

$35.83

$187.52

$188.79

Commodities

[expand all]

Market focus

Wheat

The world wheat indicator price (US no.2 hard red winter, fob Gulf) fell 6 per cent to average $237 a tonne in the week ending 18 July 2017. This fall reflects increased supplies of grain entering the supply chain as harvest progresses. As at 16 July 2017 the United States Department of Agriculture National Agricultural Statistics Service advised that the US winter wheat harvest 75 per cent complete.

The US wheat associates harvest report indicated protein levels were below-average at 11.3 per cent as at 14 July 2017. This is an improvement on earlier reports where protein levels were averaging 10.6 per cent. This recent fall in price follows several weeks of increases, and is currently 25 per cent higher than at this time in 2016. The 2017 harvest is expected to result in a decline of high-quality hard red winter wheat in the United States (see Agricultural Commodities: June quarter 2017 for further details).

Current indicators – 20 July 2017

IndicatorWeek endedUnitLatest pricePrice week priorWeekly changePrice 12 months priorYear on year changeChart

Selected world indicator prices

Australian Dollar – AUD/USD Exchange Rate19-JulUS$/A$0.780.763%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.0.763%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Wheat – US no. 2 hard red winter wheat, fob Gulf18-JulUS$/t237253-6%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.19025%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Coarse Grains – US no. 2 yellow corn, fob Gulf19-JulUS$/t157163-4%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.166-5%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Canola – Rapeseed, Europe, fob Hamburg18-JulUS$/t419421<1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.3927%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Cotton – Cotlook 'A' Index19-JulUSc/lb83.284.1-1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.84.5-2%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Sugar – Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, no.11 contract19-JulUSc/lb14.213.74%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.19.5-27%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Wool – Eastern Market Indicator13-JulAc/kg clean1,5221,524<1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.1,31116%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Wool – Western Market Indicator14-JulAc/kg clean1,5701,561<1%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.1,42310%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart

Selected domestic crop indicator prices

Milling Wheat – ASW1, track quote, Port Adelaide, SA18-JulA$/t256263-3%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.2378%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Feed Wheat – General purpose, Sydney, NSW19-JulA$/t2802800%24813%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Feed Barley – Sydney, NSW19-JulA$/t253256-1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.20325%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Canola – Portland, Vic.17-JulA$/t510518-2%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.4904%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Grain Sorghum – Sydney, NSW19-JulA$/t3042847%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.22933%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart

Selected domestic livestock indicator prices

Beef – Eastern Young Cattle Indicator13-JulAc/kg cwt598611-2%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.658-9%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Mutton – Mutton indicator (18-24 kg fat score 2-3), Vic14-JulAc/kg cwt432444-3%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.4066%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Lamb – Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator13-JulAc/kg cwt6055785%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.639-5%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Pig – Eastern Seaboard (60.1-75 kg), average of buyers & sellers07-JunAc/kg cwt279285-2%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.379-26%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Goat – Eastern States (12.1-16 kg)17-JulAc/kg cwt6836830%57419%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Live cattle – Light steers ex Darwin to Indonesia20-MayAc/kg lwt3203200%28014%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Live sheep – Live wether (Muchea WA saleyard) to Middle East10-Jul$/head104106-2%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.nana chart

Global Dairy Trade weighted average pricesa

Dairy – Whole milk powder18-JulUS$/t3,1143,111<1%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.2,07950%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Dairy – Skim milk powder18-JulUS$/t2,0242,090-3%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.1,9275%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Dairy – Cheddar cheese18-JulUS$/t4,1124,0512%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.2,88642%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Dairy – Anhydrous milk fat18-JulUS$/t6,5776,596<1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.3,62881%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart

a Global Dairy Trade prices are updated twice monthly on the first and third Tuesday of each month.

Movements in selected fruit and vegetable prices
Data attribution

​​​​​
Last reviewed:
20 Jul 2017