Weekly update - 20 September 2018

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Weekly Australian Climate,
Water and Agricultural Update

Key issues

  • During the week ending 19 September 2018 little to no rainfall was recorded across much of mainland Australia, with falls restricted to far south of the country. Rainfall totals of between 10 and 25 millimetres were recorded across parts of southern Victoria, the far south-east of South Australia, the far south of Western Australia and much of Tasmania.
  • For cropping regions, rainfall totals of between 1 and 5 millimetres were recorded in Victoria, South Australia and the far south of Western Australia. For remaining cropping regions, little or no rainfall was recorded during the week ending 19 September 2018.
  • For the week ending 18 September 2018, maximum temperatures were generally average across much of the country. Minimum temperatures were generally average, with parts northern, central and southern Australia recording night-time temperatures of 2°C to 6°C below average for this time of year.
  • Severe frost events over the weekend have left grain farmers in southern Western Australia and western Victoria concerned that crops may have suffered significant frost damage.
  • Frost at this time of year can have a significant effect on the yield potential of wheat, barley and canola crops. The nature of frost damage depends upon the plant development stage at which the frost occurs.
  • In Western Australia the frost event was widespread across southern growing regions, with barley and to some extend canola being the most affected crops. Wheat crops in general weren’t as advanced and while there is likely to be some damage, it is not expected to be as severe as that seen in barley crops. In western Victoria, farmers are also reportedly concerned that moisture-stressed crops will now be subject to significant frost damage.
  • During the next eight days, rainfall is expected to be restricted to the far east and south of Australia.
  • In cropping regions, little to no rainfall is forecast during the next eight days, with most regions expected to record between 0 and 5 millimetres.
  • Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) decreased during the week ending 20 September 2018 by 121 gigalitres (GL) to 12,222GL and are at 54 per cent of total capacity. This is 21 percentage points or 4,683 GL less than at the same time last year.
  • Allocation prices in the southern Murray-Darling Basin declined in the week ending 20  September  2018 to $305 per ML. This is a decrease of $12 from the same time last week.

Climate

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Rainfall this week

During the week ending 19 September 2018 little to no rainfall was recorded across much of mainland Australia, with falls restricted to far south of the country. Rainfall totals of between 10 and 25 millimetres were recorded across parts of southern Victoria, the far south-east of South Australia, the far south of Western Australia and much of Tasmania.

Higher rainfall totals in excess of 50 millimetres were recorded across areas of western Tasmania. The highest recorded weekly total was 87 millimetres at Mount Read, in Tasmania.

In cropping regions, rainfall totals of between 1 and 5 millimetres were recorded for Victoria, South Australia and the far south of Western Australia. For remaining cropping regions, little or no rainfall was recorded.

Rainfall analysis for the week ending 19 September 2018

Map showing weekly rainfall totals in Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2018, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 19/9/2018

Note: The rainfall analyses and associated maps utilise data contained in the Bureau of Meteorology climate database, the Australian Data Archive for Meteorology (ADAM). The analyses are initially produced automatically from real-time data with limited quality control. They are intended to provide a general overview of rainfall across Australia as quickly as possible after the observations are received. For further information go to Weekly Rainfall Update.

Temperature anomalies this week

For the week ending 18 September 2018, maximum temperatures were above average (2°C to 6°C) across parts of eastern and northern Australia, with generally average daytime temperatures across the remainder of the country. Minimum temperatures were generally average, with parts northern, central and southern Australia recording night-time temperatures of 2°C to 6°C below average for this time of year.

Severe frost events over the weekend have left grain farmers in southern Western Australia and western Victoria concerned that crops may have suffered significant frost damage.

Frost at this time of year can have a significant effect on the yield potential of wheat, barley and canola crops. The nature of frost damage depends upon the plant development stage at which the frost occurs. Cereal crops are most susceptible to frost damage during and after flowering but are also susceptible from stem elongation throughout grain filling. Pulses and canola are particularly susceptible during pod filling.

Prior to this event the Grain Industry Association of Western Australia (GIWA) had reported that the state was on track for a bumper harvest. GIWA have now stated that the frost was widespread across southern growing regions, with barley and to some extend canola being the most affected crops. Wheat crops in general weren’t as advanced and while there is likely to be some damage, it is not expected to be as severe as that seen in barley crops.

In western Victoria, farmers are also reportedly concerned that moisture-stressed crops will now be subject to significant frost damage. District agronomists report that farmers in the Wimmera region are in the process of identifying the best way to mitigate potential losses with many looking at the potential of cutting grain crops for hay, including cereals and canola in particular.

Maximum temperature anomalies for the week ending 18 September 2018

Map showing maximum temperature anomalies for Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2018, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 19/9/2018

Minimum temperature anomalies for the week ending 18 September 2018

Map showing minimum temperature anomalies for Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2018, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 19/9/2018

Note: Spatial temperature analyses are based on historical weekly temperature data provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. These temperature anomaly maps show the departure of the maximum and minimum temperatures from the average over the 1961 to 1990 reference period. For further information go to Daily maximum temperature for Australia.

Rainfall forecast for the next 8 days

During the next eight days, rainfall is expected to be mainly restricted to the far east and south of Australia. Little to no rainfall is forecast across the remainder of the country.

Rainfall totals of between 10 and 25 millimetres are forecast for parts of north-eastern New South Wales, the far south-east of Queensland and most of Tasmania.

In cropping regions, little to no rainfall is forecast during the next eight days, with most regions expected to record between 0 and 5 millimetres.

This rainfall forecast is produced from computer models. As it contains no input from weather forecasters, it is important to check local forecasts and warnings issued by the Bureau of Meteorology.

Total forecast rainfall (mm) for the period 20 to 27 September 2018

Map of the total forecast rainfall for the next 8 days. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2018, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 20/9/2018

Commodities

Current indicators – 20 September 2018

IndicatorWeek endedUnitLatest pricePrice week priorWeekly changePrice 12 months priorYear on year changeChart

Selected world indicator prices

Australian Dollar – AUD/USD Exchange Rate19-SepUS$/A$0.720.711%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.0.8-10%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Wheat – US no. 2 hard red winter wheat, fob Gulf18-SepUS$/t238239<1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.2189%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Coarse Grains – US no. 2 yellow corn, fob Gulf19-SepUS$/t150159-6%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.1453%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Canola – Rapeseed, Europe, fob Hamburga18-SepUS$/t429439-2%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.437-2%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Cotton – Cotlook 'A' Index19-SepUSc/lb90.792.0-1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.79.215%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Sugar – Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, no.11 contract19-SepUSc/lb11.011.2-2%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.14.2-23%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Wool – Eastern Market Indicator13-SepAc/kg clean2,0942,088<1%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.1,52537%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Wool – Western Market Indicator14-SepAc/kg clean2,2562,255<1%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.1,60041%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart

Selected domestic crop indicator prices

Milling Wheat – ASW1, track quote, Port Adelaide, SA11-SepA$/t36732513%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.21769%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Feed Wheat – General purpose, Sydney, NSW19-SepA$/t4304300%27358%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Feed Barley – Sydney, NSW19-SepA$/t4104100%25660%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Canola – Portland, Vic.17-SepA$/t580575<1%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.50814%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Grain Sorghum – Sydney, NSW19-SepA$/t4054050%31130%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart

Selected domestic livestock indicator prices

Beef – Eastern Young Cattle Indicator13-SepAc/kg cwt4894890%524-7%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Mutton – Mutton indicator (18-24 kg fat score 2-3), Vic14-SepAc/kg cwt481479<1%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.39721%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Lamb – Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator13-SepAc/kg cwt792855-7%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.59733%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Pig – Eastern Seaboard (60.1-75 kg), average of buyers & sellers07-SepAc/kg cwt249248<1%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.277-10%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Goat – Eastern States (12.1-16 kg)17-SepAc/kg cwt5405400%46616%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Live cattle – Light steers ex Darwin to Indonesia15-SepAc/kg lwt3003000%330-9%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Live sheep – Live wether (Muchea WA saleyard) to Middle East10-Sep$/head111nana113-2%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart

Global Dairy Trade weighted average pricesa

Dairy – Whole milk powder18-SepUS$/t2,7682,821-2%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.3,122-11%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Dairy – Skim milk powder18-SepUS$/t1,9802,005-1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.1,9203%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Dairy – Cheddar cheese18-SepUS$/t3,5033,631-4%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.4,032-13%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Dairy – Anhydrous milk fat18-SepUS$/t5,2945,316<1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.6,764-22%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart

a Global Dairy Trade prices are updated twice monthly on the first and third Tuesday of each month.

Selected world indicator prices
Selected domestic crop indicator prices
Selected domestic livestock indicator prices
Global dairy trade weighted average prices
Movements in selected fruit and vegetable prices
Data attribution

Water

Water storages, water markets and water allocations - current week

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Last reviewed:
20 Sep 2018