Weekly update - 24 May 2018

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Weekly Australian Climate,
Water and Agricultural Update

Key issues

  • During the week ending 23 May 2018 little to no rainfall was recorded across much of mainland Australia, with falls being restricted to the north-east of Queensland and the south-eastern corner of the country.
  • Temperatures continued to be warmer than average across western areas of Western Australia during the week ending 22 May 2018. Maximum temperatures were generally close to average for the remainder of the country. In contrast, minimum temperatures were 2°C to 8°C below average across large areas of mainland Australia.
  • During the next eight days, little to no rainfall is expected across most of the country. Totals between 10 and 50 millimetres are forecast for much of Victoria, the west of Western Australia, southern New South Wales and South Australia, Tasmania and isolated coastal regions of Queensland. Heavier falls are forecast for the far south-west of Western Australia.
  • The Bureau of Meteorology report that most climate models predict that the El Niño-Southern Oscillation is expected to remain neutral through winter. However, two international climate models suggest El Niño thresholds may be reached during late winter to early spring, one by August and the other by October. The Indian Ocean Dipole is also currently neutral. There is little consensus in the models for the coming months, with a broad spread across the outlooks for winter and into spring
  • Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) increased during the week ending 24 May 2018 by 45 gigalitres (GL) to 11,119 GL and are at 49 per cent of total capacity. This is 18 percentage points or 4,161 GL less than at the same time last year.
  • Allocation prices in the southern Murray–Darling Basin decreased in the week ending 24 May 2018 to $153 per ML. This is a decrease of $10 from the same time last week.

Climate

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Rainfall this week

During the week ending 23 May 2018 little to no rainfall was recorded across much of mainland Australia, with falls being restricted to the north-east of Queensland and the south-eastern corner of the country. Rainfall totals of between 10 and 50 millimetres were recorded across southern Victoria, Tasmania and isolates areas of north-eastern Queensland and southern South Australia. Higher totals of between 50 and 200 millimetres were recorded across parts of western Tasmania. The highest recorded weekly total was 264 millimetres at Mount Read in western Tasmania.

Rainfall - week ending 23 May 2018

Map showing weekly rainfall totals in Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2018, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 23/05/2018

Note: The rainfall analyses and associated maps utilise data contained in the Bureau of Meteorology climate database, the Australian Data Archive for Meteorology (ADAM). The analyses are initially produced automatically from real-time data with limited quality control. They are intended to provide a general overview of rainfall across Australia as quickly as possible after the observations are received. For further information go to Weekly Rainfall Update.

Temperature anomalies this week

Temperatures continued to be warmer than average across western areas of Western Australia during the week ending 22 May 2018. Maximum temperatures were generally close to average for the remainder of the country. In contrast, minimum temperatures were 2°C to 8°C below average across large areas of mainland Australia.

Maximum temperature anomalies for the week ending 22 May 2018

Map showing maximum temperature anomalies in Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2018, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 22/05/2018

Minimum temperature anomalies for the week ending 22 May 2018

Map showing minimum temperature anomalies in Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2018, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 22/05/2018

Note: Maximum and minimum temperatures for April 2018 compared with temperature recorded for that period during the historical record (1900 to present). For further information go to Daily maximum temperatures for Australia

Rainfall forecast for the next 8 days

During the next eight days, little to no rainfall is expected across most of the country. Totals between 10 and 50 millimetres are forecast for much of Victoria, the west of Western Australia, southern New South Wales and South Australia, Tasmania and isolated coastal regions of Queensland. Heavier falls of between 50 and 150 millimetres are forecast for the far south-west of Western Australia.

Total forecast rainfall (mm) for the period 24 May to 31 May 2018

Map of the total forecast rainfall for the next 8 days. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2018, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 24/05/2018

El Niño–Southern Oscillation Update

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral—meaning that it is neither in an El Niño nor La Niña phase. Over the coming months, climate models predict the central tropical Pacific Ocean will remain either steady at current values (close to the climatological average) or slowly warm. Two international climate models suggest El Niño thresholds may be reached during late winter to early spring, one by August and the other by October. When ENSO is neutral it has limited influence on Australian and global climate. During an El Niño, eastern Australia typically sees less rainfall than usual during winter and spring.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is also currently neutral. There is little consensus in the models for the coming months, with a broad spread across the outlooks for winter and into spring. Most models predict the IOD to maintain neutral values until early spring. However, one of six international climate models is forecasting a positive IOD to develop in winter, while another is predicting a negative IOD to develop during spring. This variation in model outcomes may be explained by model skill being lower for outlooks of the IOD made at this time of year than, when compared to forecasts made during winter and spring. During negative IOD events, winter–spring rainfall is typically above average over southern Australia, while positive IOD events often results in less rainfall than average over parts of Australia (Bureau of Meteorology, ‘ENSO Wrap-Up’, 22 May 2018).

Water

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Water availability

Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) increased during the week ending 24 May 2018 by 45 gigalitres (GL) to 11,119 GL and are at 49 per cent of total capacity. This is 18 percentage points or 4,161 GL less than at the same time last year.

Visit the interactive Tableau data dashboard

Water storages in the Murray-Darling Basin (NSW, Victoria and Queensland)

Line graph showing water storages in the Murray–Darling Basin (NSW, Victoria and Queensland) from 2001 to 2018, measured as a percentage of the total storage of 22,598 gigalitres. 

Information on water available in dams used for irrigation the Murray–Darling Basin from 1 January 2001 to 24 May 2018 is shown above. The top horizontal (short dash) line indicates the storage level during a similar time last year. The bottom horizontal (long dash) line indicates the amount of ‘dead’ or unusable storage.

Water allocations

The current water allocations for the 2017–18 water trading season for licence holders in New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia water systems are summarised in the following table and charts.

Water allocations in the Murray–Darling Basin (NSW, Victoria and South Australia)

Allocations at

17 May 2018

10 May 2018

New South Wales

General security

High security

General security

High security

NSW Murray

51%

97%

51%

97%

NSW Murrumbidgee

45%

95%

41%

95%

NSW Lower Darling

100%

100%

100%

100%

NSW Macquarie and Cudgegong

38%

100%

38%

100%

NSW Hunter

100%

100%

100%

100%

NSW Lachlan

2%

100%

2%

100%

NSW Lower Namoi

7%

100%

7%

100%

NSW Upper Namoi

100%

100%

100%

100%

NSW Gwydir

18%

100%

18%

100%

NSW Border Rivers

100%(a)/19.62%(b)

100%

100%(a)/19.62%(b)

100%

NSW Peel

100%

100%

100%

100%

Victoria

Low reliability

High reliability

Low reliability

High reliability

Victoria Murray

0%

100%

0%

100%

Victoria Goulburn

0%

100%

0%

100%

Victoria Campaspe

59%

100%

59%

100%

Victoria Loddon

0%

100%

0%

100%

Victoria Bullarook

100%

100%

100%

100%

Victoria Broken

100%

100%

100%

100%

South Australia

 

Class 3a/3b

 

Class 3a/3b

South Australia Murray

 

100%

 

100%

Select water allocation percentages in the southern Murray-Darling Basin

 

 

 

 

Water markets

Allocation prices in the southern Murray–Darling Basin decreased in the week ending 24 May 2018 to $153 per ML. This is a decrease of $10 from the same time last week. This contrasts with an average price of $134 in April across the whole southern MDB, and $32 during the same month last year.

Allocation trade activity in the southern Murray–Darling Basin

Allocation trade activity in the southern Murray-Darling Basin. The trades shown reflect market activity and do not encompass all register trades. The price line reflects locally fitted price values for the entire southern Murray-Darling Basin.  

The trades shown reflect estimated market activity and do not encompass all register trades. The price line reflects locally fitted price values for the entire southern Murray–Darling Basin. Data shown is current until 24 May 2018. Trade activity is shown as colour density.

Allocation trade prices, southern Murray–Darling Basin trade zones

 

Southern MDB

Victoria Goulburn

SA Murray

NSW Murrumbidgee

Victoria Murray

NSW Murray

Current week:
18/05/18 - 24/05/18

$152.73

$144.62

$146.90

$171.94

$145.58

$147.16

Last week:
11/05/18 - 17/05/18

$161.51

$158.97

$154.72

$180.87

$158.88

$160.13

Apr-18

$133.67

$124.80

$131.26

$157.74

$136.65

$134.20

Apr-17

$31.95

$42.99

$42.03

$10.72

$42.52

$35.65

Commodities

Current indicators – 24 May 2018

IndicatorWeek endedUnitLatest pricePrice week priorWeekly changePrice 12 months priorYear on year changeChart

Selected world indicator prices

Australian Dollar – AUD/USD Exchange Rate23-MayUS$/A$0.750.750%0.750% chart
Wheat – US no. 2 hard red winter wheat, fob Gulf22-MayUS$/t2462422%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.20023%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Coarse Grains – US no. 2 yellow corn, fob Gulf23-MayUS$/t1801800%16013%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Canola – Rapeseed, Europe, fob Hamburg22-MayUS$/t407410<1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.431-6% chart
Cotton – Cotlook 'A' Index23-MayUSc/lb94.293.01%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.88.56%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Sugar – Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, no.11 contract23-MayUSc/lb11.811.44%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.16.1-27%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Wool – Eastern Market Indicator17-MayAc/kg clean1,9431,8913%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.1,52228%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Wool – Western Market Indicator18-MayAc/kg clean2,0802,0183%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.1,53536%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart

Selected domestic crop indicator prices

Milling Wheat – ASW1, track quote, Port Adelaide, SA22-MayA$/t2832714%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.19446%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Feed Wheat – General purpose, Sydney, NSW22-MayA$/t37631519%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.23560%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Feed Barley – Sydney, NSW22-MayA$/t3503229%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.21464%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Canola – Portland, Vic.14-MayA$/t515517<1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.520<1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Grain Sorghum – Sydney, NSW22-MayA$/t365395-8%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.27234%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart

Selected domestic livestock indicator prices

Beef – Eastern Young Cattle Indicator17-MayAc/kg cwt4914841%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.650-24%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Mutton – Mutton indicator (18–24 kg fat score 2–3), Vic18-MayAc/kg cwt4864606%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.544-11%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Lamb – Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator17-MayAc/kg cwt6175983%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.651-5%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Pig – Eastern Seaboard (60.1–75 kg), average of buyers & sellers11-MayAc/kg cwt2602600%302-14%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Goat – Eastern States (12.1–16 kg)21-MayAc/kg cwt4844840%656-26%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Live cattle – Light steers ex Darwin to Indonesia12-MayAc/kg lwt2802800%320-13%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Live sheep – Live wether (Muchea WA saleyard) to Middle East14-May$/head95 nana116-18%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart

Global Dairy Trade (GDT) weighted average pricesa

Dairy – Whole milk powder15-MayUS$/t3,2263,231<1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.3,312-3%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Dairy – Skim milk powder15-MayUS$/t2,0471,9992%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.1,9982%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Dairy – Cheddar cheese15-MayUS$/t4,2054,0244%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.3,72613%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Dairy – Anhydrous milk fat15-MayUS$/t6,3546,0325%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.6,631-4%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart

a Global Dairy Trade prices are updated twice monthly on the first and third Tuesday of each month.

Movements in selected fruit and vegetable prices
Data attribution

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Last reviewed:
24 May 2018