Weekly update - 24 October 2019

Weekly Australian Climate,
Water and Agricultural Update

Key issues

  • During the week ending 23 October 2019 rainfall was restricted to parts of western and eastern Australia.
  • Across cropping regions, rainfall totals of between 10 to 50 millimetres were recorded across isolated areas of eastern Queensland. Rainfall totals of between 1 to 10 millimetres were recorded across parts of eastern and southern New South Wales, Victoria, eastern Queensland and eastern South Australia.
  • Most climate models indicate that a strongly positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is expected to remain the dominant driver of climatic conditions in Australia during spring. A positive IOD at this time of year typically brings drier conditions to much of southern and central Australia.
  • A prolonged negative Southern Annular Mode (SAM) event is also forecast to persist during late October and early November. This negative SAM is likely to intensify dry and warm conditions across eastern Australia and bring wetter than average conditions to western Tasmania during spring.
  • The rainfall outlook for November to January 2019 indicates that a drier than average three months is more likely across parts of southern, central and eastern Australia.
  • Over the next eight days, limited rainfall is expected over parts of northern and south-eastern Australia.
  • Across Australia’s cropping regions, the 8-day rainfall forecast indicates that falls of between 1 and 5 millimetres are expected across parts of northern and eastern New South Wales, southern Victoria, Queensland and southern Western Australia. These expected low rainfall totals are likely to be of little benefit to production prospects following hot and dry spring conditions in many regions.
  • Water storage levels in the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) decreased between 16 October and 22 October 2019 by 49 gigalitres (GL). Current volume of water held in storage is 10,055 GL which represents 40 per cent of total capacity. This is 25 percentage points or 3,430 GL less than at the same time last year.
  • Allocation prices in the Victorian Murray below the Barmah Choke decreased from $798 per ML on 7 October 2019 to $787 per ML on 14 October 2019. More recently in the Victorian Murray below the Barmah Choke prices have increased significantly up to $950 per ML on the 23 October 2019.

Climate

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Rainfall this week

During the week ending 23 October 2019 rainfall was restricted to parts of western and eastern Australia.

Across cropping regions, rainfall totals of between 10 to 50 millimetres were recorded across isolated areas of eastern Queensland. Rainfall totals of between 1 to 10 millimetres were recorded across parts of eastern and southern New South Wales, Victoria, eastern Queensland and eastern South Australia. Little to no rainfall was recorded across cropping regions Western Australia and remaining cropping regions in New South Wales, Queensland and South Australia.

Rainfall for the week ending 23 October 2019

Map showing weekly rainfall totals in Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description.

©Commonwealth of Australia 2019, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 23/10/2019

Note: The rainfall analyses and associated maps utilise data contained in the Bureau of Meteorology climate database, the Australian Data Archive for Meteorology (ADAM). The analyses are initially produced automatically from real-time data with limited quality control. They are intended to provide a general overview of rainfall across Australia as quickly as possible after the observations are received. For further information go to Weekly Rainfall Update.

Temperature anomalies this week

For the week ending 22 October 2019, maximum temperatures were 2°C to 6°C above average across large areas of western, northern and eastern Australia, and minimum temperatures were 2°C to 8°C above average across parts of eastern Queensland, and large areas of western and central Australia. In contrast, minimum temperatures were 2°C to 4°C below average across isolated areas of northern and south-eastern Australia. Average (- 2°C to 2°C) minimum and maximum temperatures were recorded across the remainder of the country.

Maximum temperature anomalies for the week ending 22 October 2019

Map showing maximum temperature anomalies for Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description.

©Commonwealth of Australia 2019, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 23/10/2019

Minimum temperature anomalies for the week ending 22 October 2019

Map showing minimum temperature anomalies for Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description.

©Commonwealth of Australia 2019, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 23/10/2019

Note: Spatial temperature analyses are based on historical weekly temperature data provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. These temperature anomaly maps show the departure of the maximum and minimum temperatures from the average over the 1961 to 1990 reference period. For further information go to Daily maximum temperatures for Australia.

National Climate Outlook

The rainfall and temperature outlooks presented here show the likelihood, represented as a percentage, of experiencing wetter or drier (and warmer or cooler) than median climatic conditions for the given outlook periods. These climate outlooks are generated by ACCESS–S (Australian Community Climate Earth-System Simulator–Seasonal). ACCESS–S is the Bureau of Meteorology's dynamical (physics-based) weather and climate model used for monthly, seasonal and longer-lead climate outlooks.

For further information, go to About the climate outlooks

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation is currently neutral and expected to remain neutral until at least early 2019. The positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has continued to strengthen and most climate models suggest it will remain the dominant driver of climatic conditions in Australia until the end of spring. A positive IOD typically brings below average spring rainfall and warmer days to southern and central Australia. A prolonged negative Southern Annular Mode (SAM) event is also forecast to persist during late October and early November due to a predicted sudden stratospheric warming event. This negative SAM is likely to intensify dry and warm conditions across eastern Australia and bring wetter than average conditions to western Tasmania during spring.

The latest rainfall outlook released by the Bureau of Meteorology suggests that a drier than average November is more likely for most of the country. In contrast, a wetter than average November is more likely across parts of western Tasmania. Across parts of northern Western Australia, there is no strong shift towards a wetter or drier than average month (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 17 October 2019).

Chance of exceeding the median rainfall November 2019

Map showing chance of exceeding median rainfall during the next month in Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description.

The Bureau of Meteorology’s climate outlooks are given as a probability (or chance) of exceeding a specified rainfall or temperature threshold. In the case of the Bureau’s rainfall outlook, it is represented as the chance of rainfall being above median, expressed as a percentage. While this probabilistic forecast indicates that the chance of exceeding median rainfall is quite low across parts of Australia, it does not mean that these areas will receive no rainfall during November to January 2019.

The rainfall outlook for November to January 2019 indicates that a drier than average three months is more likely across parts of southern, central and eastern Australia. In contrast, a wetter than average November to January is more likely for parts of the northwest of Western Australia. Across much of north-western and south-eastern Australia, there is no strong shift towards a wetter or drier than average three months (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 17 October 2019).

Chance of exceeding the median rainfall November 2019 to January 2020

Map showing chance of exceeding median rainfall for the next three months in Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description.

The temperature outlook for November to January 2019 indicates that daytime temperatures are more likely to be warmer than average for much of the country. Night-time temperatures are also likely to be warmer than average for much of Australia, with the exception of parts of north-eastern Queensland and south-eastern Australia where the chances of warmer or cooler nights are roughly equal (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 17 October 2019).

Chance of exceeding the median maximum temperature November 2019 to January 2020

Map showing chance of exceeding median maximum temperature for the next three months in Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description.

Chance of exceeding the median minimum temperature November 2019 to January 2020

Map showing chance of exceeding median minimum temperature for the next three months in Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description.

Rainfall forecast for the next 8 days

Over the next eight days, limited rainfall is expected over parts of northern and south-eastern Australia.

Rainfall totals of between 5 and 25 millimetres are forecast for isolated parts of southern Victoria.  Higher rainfall totals up to 100 millimetres are forecast for parts of north-eastern Queensland, western Tasmania and the north of the Northern Territory.

In cropping regions, low expected rainfall totals of between 1 and 5 millimetres across parts of northern and eastern New South Wales, southern Victoria, Queensland and southern Western Australia are likely to be of little benefit to production prospects following hot and dry spring conditions in many regions. Little to no rainfall is expected across South Australia and remaining cropping regions in New South Wales, Victoria and Western Australia.

Total forecast rainfall (mm) for the period 24 October to 31 October 2019

Map of the total forecast rainfall for the next 8 days. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description.

©Commonwealth of Australia 2019, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 24/10/2019

Note: This rainfall forecast is produced from computer models. As the model outputs are not altered by weather forecasters, it is important to check local forecasts and warnings issued by the Bureau of Meteorology.

Commodities

Current indicators – 24 October 2019

IndicatorWeek endedUnitLatest pricePrice week priorWeekly changePrice 12 months priorYear on year changeChart

Selected World Indicator Prices

Australian Dollar – AUD/USD Exchange Rate23-OctUS$/A$0.680.680%0.71-4%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.chart
Wheat – US no. 2 hard red winter wheat, fob Gulf22-OctUS$/t2172132%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.239-9%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.chart
Coarse Grains – US no. 2 yellow corn, fob Gulf23-OctUS$/t1671670%1614%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.chart
Canola – Rapeseed, Europe, fob Hamburg22-OctUS$/t424425<1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.431-2%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.chart
Cotton – Cotlook 'A' Index23-OctUSc/lb75.173.13%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.87.9-15%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.chart
Sugar – Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, no.11 contract23-OctUSc/lb12.212.5-2%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.13.9-12%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.chart
Wool – Eastern Market Indicator17-OctAc/kg clean1,5171,543-2%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.1,970-23%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.chart
Wool – Western Market Indicator18-OctAc/kg clean1,6211,653-2%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.2,094-23%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.chart

Selected domestic crop indicator prices

Milling Wheat – ASW1, track quote, Port Adelaide, SA22-OctA$/t300nana399-25%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.chart
Feed Wheat – General purpose, Sydney, NSW23-OctA$/t3853850%455-15%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.chart
Feed Barley – Sydney, NSW23-OctA$/t3853704%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.420-8%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.chart
Grain Sorghum – Sydney, NSW23-OctA$/t3453450%410-16%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.chart

Selected domestic livestock indicator prices

Beef – Eastern Young Cattle Indicator17-OctAc/kg cwt5034863%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.519-3%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.chart
Mutton – Mutton indicator (18–24 kg fat score 2–3), Vic18-OctAc/kg cwt605621-3%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.44636%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.chart
Lamb – Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator17-OctAc/kg cwt793806-2%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.7378%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.chart
Pig – Eastern Seaboard (60.1–75 kg), average of buyers & sellers11-OctAc/kg cwt4044001%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.27547%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.chart
Goat – Eastern States (12.1–16 kg)21-OctAc/kg cwt8708700%53862%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.chart
Live cattle – Light steers ex Darwin to Indonesia19-OctAc/kg lwt3153150%3005%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.chart
Live sheep – Live wether (Muchea WA saleyard) to Middle East21-Oct$/head86nana108-20%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.chart

Global Dairy Trade (GDT) weighted average prices a

Dairy – Whole milk powder15-OctUS$/t3,1333,141<1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.2,72915%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.chart
Dairy – Skim milk powder15-OctUS$/t2,7432,6743%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.1,97739%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.chart
Dairy – Cheddar cheese15-OctUS$/t3,6363,717-2%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.3,4047%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.chart
Dairy – Anhydrous milk fat15-OctUS$/t5,0654,9971%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.5,106<1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.chart

a Global Dairy Trade prices are updated twice monthly on the first and third Tuesday of each month.

Selected world indicator prices
Selected domestic crop indicator prices
Selected domestic livestock indicator prices
Global dairy trade weighted average prices
Movements in selected fruit and vegetable prices
Data attribution

Water

Water storages, water markets and water allocations - current week


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Last reviewed:
24 Oct 2019