Weekly update - 27 June 2019

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Weekly ​Australian Climate,
Water and Agricultural Update

Key issues

  • Rainfall was recorded across winter cropping regions in Western Australia and the Eyre Peninsula in South Australia during the week ending 26 June 2019. These falls are likely to support crop germination and growth and have improved soil moisture levels in these regions.
  • Cropping regions in New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland and the remainder of South Australia recorded little to no rainfall during the week ending 26 June 2019.
  • Indian Ocean temperature forecasts indicate that a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is expected to persist through winter and into spring. A positive IOD at this time of year typically brings drier conditions to much of southern and central Australia.
  • Across Australia’s winter cropping regions, the 8‑day rainfall forecast indicates moderate falls of between 5 and 25 millimetres for most cropping regions in Victoria, southern New South Wales,  Western Australia and South Australia. Little to no rainfall is expected in northern New South Wales and southern Queensland cropping regions.
  • Water storage levels in the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) increased between 19 June and 25 June 2019 by 55 gigalitres (GL). Current volume of water held in storage is 8,865 GL which represents 35% of total capacity. This is 34% or 4,652 GL less than at the same time last year.
  • Allocation prices in the southern Murray-Darling Basin decreased from $541 per ML in the week ending 10 June 2019 to $524 per ML in the week ending 17 June 2019. Water volume traded remains low as we approach the end of the current water season and water demand declines.

Climate

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Rainfall this week

During the week ending 26 June 2019 rainfall was recorded across western Australia, and scattered areas of south-eastern and southern Australia. Little to rainfall was recorded across the rest of Australia.

Rainfall totals of between 5 to 50 millimetres were recorded across winter cropping regions in Western Australia and the Eyre Peninsula in South Australia during the week ending 26 June 2019. Following on from favourable rain in the start of June, these falls are likely to support crop germination and growth and have improved soil moisture levels in these regions.

Cropping regions in New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland and the remainder of South Australia recorded little to no rainfall during the week ending 26 June 2019. Large areas of the winter cropping region in central and northern New South Wales and southern Queensland have received less than 50 millimetres of rainfall since the start of April. These low rainfall total are less than 40% of long-term average for this time of year and will be significantly limiting crop prospects in affected regions.

Rainfall analysis for the week ending 26 June 2019

Map showing weekly rainfall totals in Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2019, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 26/06/2019

Note: The rainfall analyses and associated maps utilise data contained in the Bureau of Meteorology climate database, the Australian Data Archive for Meteorology (ADAM). The analyses are initially produced automatically from real-time data with limited quality control. They are intended to provide a general overview of rainfall across Australia as quickly as possible after the observations are received. For further information go to Weekly Rainfall Update.

Temperature anomalies this week

For the week ending 25 June 2019, maximum and minimum temperatures were 2°C to 4°C above average across western Australia. In contrast, across much of eastern and central Australia, maximum and minimum temperatures were - 2°C to - 6°C and - 2°C to - 8°C  below average respectively. Average (- 2°C to 2°C) minimum and maximum temperatures were recorded across the remainder of the country.

Maximum temperature anomalies for the week ending 25 June 2019

Map showing maximum temperature anomalies for Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2019, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 25/06/2019

Minimum temperature anomalies for the week ending 25 June 2019

Map showing minimum temperature anomalies for Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2019, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 25/06/2019

Note: Spatial temperature analyses are based on historical weekly temperature data provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. These temperature anomaly maps show the departure of the maximum and minimum temperatures from the average over the 1961 to 1990 reference period. For further information go to Daily maximum temperature for Australia.

National Climate Outlook

The rainfall and temperature outlooks presented here show the likelihood, represented as a percentage, of experiencing wetter or drier (and warmer or cooler) than median climatic conditions for the given outlook periods. These climate outlooks are generated by ACCESS–S (Australian Community Climate Earth-System Simulator–Seasonal). ACCESS–S is the Bureau of Meteorology's dynamical (physics-based) weather and climate model used for monthly, seasonal and longer-lead climate outlooks.

For further information, go to About the climate outlooks

The Bureau of Meteorology's ENSO Outlook has been reset to INACTIVE. This does not mean the chance of El Niño is zero, but that ENSO-neutral is now the most likely outcome for the remainder of 2019 following a return to neutral sea surface temperatures values in the tropical Pacific Ocean. A positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is likely underway and is expected to be the dominant driver of climatic condition in Australia during winter and spring. A positive IOD typically brings below average winter–spring rainfall to southern and central Australia, and warmer days for southern Australia.

The current state of the key climate drivers mean that higher than average pressure is more likely over southern and eastern Australia. This can act to suppress cloud formation and to keep cold fronts further south than normal, thereby reducing rainfall for the southern states.

The latest rainfall outlook released by the Bureau of Meteorology suggests that a drier than average July is more likely for parts of eastern New South Wales, southern Queensland and south-west Western Australia. There is no strong shift towards a wetter or drier than average July for the remainder of the country (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 27 June 2019).

Chance of exceeding the median rainfall July 2019

Map of the total forecast rainfall for the next 8 days. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

The Bureau of Meteorology’s climate outlooks are given as a probability (or chance) of exceeding a specified rainfall or temperature threshold. In the case of the Bureau’s rainfall outlook, it is provided as the chance of rainfall being above median, expressed as a percentage. While this probabilistic forecast indicates that the chance of exceeding median rainfall is quite low in some parts of Australia, it does not mean that these areas will receive no rainfall during July to September 2019.

The rainfall outlook for July to September 2019 indicates that a drier than average 3‑months is more likely across much of New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland and parts of Western Australia, south-eastern South Australia and north of the Northern Territory. Across the remainder of the country, there is no strong shift towards a wetter or drier than average three months (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 27 June 2019).

Chance of exceeding the median rainfall July to September 2019

Map of the total forecast rainfall for the next 8 days. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

There is a significant chance that areas that are less likely to exceed median rainfall will receive rainfall sufficient to sustain crop and pasture production through the low evapotranspiration months of winter where successful establishment has occurred.

In cropping regions, for example, there is a 75% chance of receiving between 25 and 100 millimetres across much of New South Wales and Victoria between July and September 2019. There is a similar probability of receiving between 50 and 200 millimetres for most cropping regions in South Australia and Western Australia.

Across Queensland, there is a 75% chance of receiving between 10 and 50 millimetres. In areas with low soil moisture, these probable low three-month rainfall totals are unlikely to be sufficient to sustain substantial crop and pasture production.

Rainfall totals that have a 75% chance of occurring July to September 2019

Map of the total forecast rainfall for the next 8 days. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

The temperature outlook for July to September 2019 indicates that daytime temperatures are more likely to be warmer than average for the north-eastern half of the country. Night-time temperatures are also likely to be warmer than average for much of northern Australia and parts of the eastern coast, with average minimum temperatures forecast for the remainder of Australia. The forecast drier than average conditions and dry soils could bring more cloud-free nights, increasing the risk of frost in susceptible areas (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 27 June 2019).

Chance of exceeding the median maximum temperature July to September 2019

Map of the total forecast rainfall for the next 8 days. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

Chance of exceeding the median minimum temperature July to September 2019

Map of the total forecast rainfall for the next 8 days. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

Rainfall forecast for the next 8 days

During the next eight days, rainfall is expected across south-western, southern and eastern Australia. 

Rainfall totals of between 10 and 25 millimetres are forecast for parts of southern New South Wales, Victoria, the far south-west of Western Australia, south-eastern South Australia and Tasmania. Rainfall in excess of 25 millimetres is forecast for central Victoria, the south-west coast of Western Australia and western Tasmania.

In cropping regions, rainfall of between 5 and 25 millimetres is expected across southern New South Wales, Victoria, eastern and central Western Australia and South Australia. Lighter falls of between 1 and 5 millimetres are expected in central New South Wales, eastern and central Queensland cropping regions, and the remaining cropping regions in Western Australia. Little to no rainfall is expected in the northern New South Wales and southern Queensland cropping regions.

Total forecast rainfall (mm) for the period 27 June to 4 July 2019

Map of the total forecast rainfall for the next 8 days. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2019, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 27/06/2019

Note: This rainfall forecast is produced from computer models. As the model outputs are not altered by weather forecasters, it is important to check local forecasts and warnings issued by the Bureau of Meteorology.

Commodities

Current indicators – 27 June 2019

IndicatorWeek endedUnitLatest pricePrice week priorWeekly changePrice 12 months priorYear on year changeChart

Selected World Indicator Prices

Australian Dollar – AUD/USD Exchange Rate26-JunUS$/A$0.69 0.690% 0.74-7%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.chart
Wheat – US no. 2 hard red winter wheat, fob Gulf25-JunUS$/t227229<1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.233-3%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.chart
Coarse Grains – US no. 2 yellow corn, fob Gulf26-JunUS$/t2022001%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.16225%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.chart
Canola – Rapeseed, Europe, fob Hamburg25-JunUS$/t4174092%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.3956%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.chart
Cotton – Cotlook 'A' Index26-JunUSc/lb76.8 77.4 <1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.94.0 -18%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.chart
Sugar – Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, no.11 contract26-JunUSc/lb12.3 12.7 -3%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.11.9 3%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.chart
Wool – Eastern Market Indicator20-JunAc/kg clean1,7661,823-3%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.2,073-15%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.chart
Wool – Western Market Indicator14-JunAc/kg clean1,937na na 2,188-11%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.chart

Selected domestic crop indicator prices

Milling Wheat – ASW1, track quote, Port Adelaide, SA25-JunA$/t274286-4%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.285-4%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.chart
Feed Wheat – General purpose, Sydney, NSW26-JunA$/t3803800% 3751%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.chart
Feed Barley – Sydney, NSW26-JunA$/t3653650%3504%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.chart
Canola – Portland, Vic.29-OctA$/t597 nana 53611%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.chart
Grain Sorghum – Sydney, NSW26-JunA$/t3553550%410-13%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.chart

Selected domestic livestock indicator prices

Beef – Eastern Young Cattle Indicator20-JunAc/kg cwt4924754%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.4802%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.chart
Mutton – Mutton indicator (18–24 kg fat score 2–3), Vic21-JunAc/kg cwt577592-3%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.51811%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.chart
Lamb – Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator20-JunAc/kg cwt8858455%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.65136%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.chart
Pig – Eastern Seaboard (60.1–75 kg), average of buyers & sellers14-JunAc/kg cwt350351<1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.25139%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.chart
Goat – Eastern States (12.1–16 kg)24-JunAc/kg cwt940938<1%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.51682%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.chart
Live cattle – Light steers ex Darwin to Indonesia22-JunAc/kg lwt2902900%2755%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.chart
Live sheep – Live wether (Muchea WA saleyard) to Middle East13-May$/head13511023%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.9542%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.chart

Global Dairy Trade (GDT) weighted average prices a

Dairy – Whole milk powder18-JunUS$/t3,0063,138-4%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.3,189-6%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.chart
Dairy – Skim milk powder18-JunUS$/t2,3582,436-3%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.2,00318%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.chart
Dairy – Cheddar cheese18-JunUS$/t3,7813,950-4%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.3,847-2%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.chart
Dairy – Anhydrous milk fat18-JunUS$/t5,5305,752-4%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.6,060-9%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.chart

a Global Dairy Trade prices are updated twice monthly on the first and third Tuesday of each month.

Selected world indicator prices
Selected domestic crop indicator prices
Selected domestic livestock indicator prices
Global dairy trade weighted average prices
Movements in selected fruit and vegetable prices
Data attribution

Water

Water storages, water markets and water allocations - current week

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Last reviewed:
27 Jun 2019