Weekly update - 27 July 2017

​​​​​​​​Weekly Australian Climate,
Water and Agricultural Update

Key issues

  • During the week ending 26 July 2017 little to no rainfall was recorded across most of mainland Australia. Totals between 5 and 50 millimetres were recorded in south-eastern South Australia, much of Victoria, alpine regions of New South Wales, and isolated parts of coastal Queensland. Rainfall totals up to 100 millimetres were recorded in south-western Western Australia and Tasmania.
  • For the week ending 25 July 2017 maximum temperatures were between 2°C and 4°C above average over most of mainland Australia. Minimum temperatures were generally close to average for most of the country.
  • The rainfall outlook for August to October 2017 indicates that below average rainfall is more likely for most of southern and western mainland Australia. The remainder of the country has roughly equal chances of above or below average rainfall during this period.
  • Widespread rainfall is forecast for southern Australia during the next eight days. Rainfall totals between 5 and 50 millimetres are expected in south-western Western Australia, southern and eastern South Australia, New South Wales, Victoria and Tasmania.
  • Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) increased during the week ending 27 July 2017 by 60 gigalitres (GL) to 15,762 GL and are at 70 per cent of total capacity. This is 18 percentage points or 4,038 GL more than at the same time last year.
  • Average allocation prices across the whole southern system the increased to $116. This is an increase of $15 or 15 per cent from the same time last week.
  • The domestic sorghum price exceeds the $300 a tonne level for the first time since late 2015.
  • The domestic goat indicator price fell 5 per cent while slaughter has more than doubled year on year.

Climate

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Rainfall this week

During the week ending 26 July 2017 little to no rainfall was recorded across most of mainland Australia. Totals between 5 and 50 millimetres were recorded in south-eastern South Australia, much of Victoria, alpine regions of New South Wales, and isolated parts of coastal Queensland. Rainfall totals between 5 and 100 millimetres were recorded in south-western Western Australia and Tasmania. The highest recorded weekly total was 202 millimetres at Queenstown, in western Tasmania.

The rainfall analyses and associated maps utilise data contained in the Bureau of Meteorology climate database, the Australian Data Archive for Meteorology (ADAM). The analyses are initially produced automatically from real-time data with limited quality control. They are intended to provide a general overview of rainfall across Australia as quickly as possible after the observations are received.

For further information go to Weekly Rainfall Update

Rainfall - week ending 26 July 2017

Map showing weekly rainfall totals in Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2017, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 26/07/2017

Temperature anomalies this week

During the week ending 25 July 2017 maximum temperatures were generally between 2°C and 4°C above average over most of mainland Australia. Parts of Western Australia, South Australia and southern parts of the Northern Territory recorded maximum temperatures between 4°C and 8°C above average. Minimum temperatures were generally close to average for most of the country. However, isolated parts of most states and territories, except Victoria, Tasmania and the Australian Capital Territory recorded minimum temperatures between 2°C and 4°C below average. Minimum temperatures were between 2°C and 4°C above average in south-western and central Western Australia, around the Gulf of Carpentaria and the Cape York Peninsula.

Maximum temperature anomalies - week ending 25 July 2017

Map showing maximum temperature anomalies in Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2017, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 25/07/2017

Minimum temperature anomalies - week ending 25 July 2017

Map showing minimum temperature anomalies in Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description.] 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2017, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 25/07/2017

Note: Spatial temperature analyses are based on historical weekly temperature data provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. These temperature anomaly maps show the departure of the maximum and minimum temperatures from their long-term averages. Temperature anomalies are calculated using high-resolution gridded datasets from 1911 onwards. For further information go to Daily maximum temperature for Australia.

National Climate Outlook to the end of October

The rainfall and temperature outlooks presented below show the likelihood, represented as a percentage, of experiencing wetter or drier (and warmer or cooler) than median climatic conditions for the given outlook periods. Climate outlooks are generated by the Predictive Climate Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA), a dynamical (physics-based) climate model developed by the Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric research division.

For further information, go to About the outlook

The current climate outlook is more likely to be affected by localised influences, such as moderate shifts in the location and strength of the sub-tropical ridge and local sea surface temperatures. This is because there is likely to be little influence from major climate drivers, such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which are both at neutral levels. Decreased westerly flow is also forecast over southern and south-eastern Australia, which suggests potentially less rain-bearing frontal systems for inland areas. Besides natural climate drivers such as ENSO and IOD, Australian climate patterns are also being influenced by long-term trends of increasing global air and ocean temperatures.

There is strong consensus amongst climate model that neutral ENSO levels will continue for the remainder of 2017. ENSO forecasts typically have high accuracy at this time of year.

Rainfall during August 2017 is more likely to be below average across the southern half of mainland Australia. Parts of southern New South Wales have the highest chances of receiving below average rainfall. The remainder of mainland Australia has roughly equal chances of a wetter or drier than average August. Rainfall is likely to exceed the median in Tasmania during August 2017 (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 27 July 2017).

Chance of exceeding the median rainfall August 2017

Map showing chance of exceeding the median rainfall. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

The rainfall outlook for August to October 2017 indicates that rainfall is more likely to be below average in western, southern and south-eastern Australia. The remainder of the country has roughly equal chances of receiving above or below average rainfall during this period (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 27 July 2017).

Chance of exceeding the median rainfall August to October 2017

Map showing chance of exceeding the median rainfall. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

The temperature outlook for August to October 2017 indicates that maximum temperatures are more likely to be above average for most of Australia, with highest chances of above average maximum temperatures in northern and south-eastern Australia.
Minimum temperatures are more likely to be above average for most of Australia, except in north-western Western Australia, where there are equal chances of above or below median minimum temperatures (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 27 July 2017).

Chance of exceeding the median maximum temperature August to October 2017

Map showing chance of exceeding the median maximum temperature. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

Chance of exceeding the median minimum temperature August to October 2017

Map showing chance of exceeding the median minimum temperature. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

Rainfall forecast for the next 8 days

Widespread rainfall is forecast for southern Australia during the next eight days. Rainfall totals between 5 and 50 millimetres are expected in south-western Western Australia, southern and eastern South Australia and most of New South Wales. Similar totals are forecast for Victoria and Tasmania. Little to no rainfall is forecast for the remainder of Australia.

Total forecast rainfall (mm) for the period 27 July to 3 August 2017

Map of the total forecast rainfall for the next 8 days. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2017, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 27/07/2017

Water

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Water availability

Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) increased during the week ending 27 July 2017 by 60 gigalitres (GL) to 15,762 GL and are at 70 per cent of total capacity. This is 18 percentage points or 4,038 GL more than at the same time last year.

Water storages in the Murray-Darling Basin (NSW, Victoria and Queensland)

Line graph showing water storages in the Murray–Darling Basin (NSW, Victoria and Queensland) from 2000 to 2017, measured as a percentage of the total storage of 22,598 gigalitres. 

Information on irrigation water available in the Murray–Darling Basin from 1 January 2001 to 27 July 2017 is shown above. The top horizontal (short dash) line indicates the storage level during a similar time last year. The bottom horizontal (long dash) line indicates the amount of ‘dead’ or unusable storage.

Water markets

Allocation prices in the southern Murray–Darling Basin continued to rise in the week up to 27 July 2017 in most systems. Average prices across the whole southern system the increased to $116. This is an increase of $15 or 15 per cent from the same time last week. This contrasts with an average price of $32 in June across the whole southern MDB.

Allocation trade activity in the southern Murray-Darling Basin

Allocation trade activity in the southern Murray-Darling Basin. The trades shown reflect market activity and do not encompass all register trades. The price line reflects locally fitted price values for the entire southern Murray-Darling Basin. 

The trades shown reflect market activity and do not encompass all register trades. The price line reflects locally fitted price values for the entire southern Murray-Darling Basin. Data shown is current until Thursday 27 July, 2017.

Allocation trade prices, southern Murray–Darling Basin trade zones

 

Southern MDB

Victoria Goulburn

SA Murray

NSW Murrumbidgee

Victoria Murray

NSW Murray

Current week: 21/07/17 – 27/07/17

$115.94

$107.43

NA*

$116.42

$114.46

$120.11

Last week: 14/07/17 – 20/07/17

$101.00

$68.88

$120.00

$100.40

$119.39

$110.00

June 2017

$32.27

$40.87

$38.41

$4.82

$41.27

$15.03

June 2016

$158.80

$196.40

$195.36

$35.83

$187.52

$188.79

*South Australian water allocation trade was unavailable at the time of preparation.

Commodities

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Market focus

Goat price

The Eastern states over the hooks weekly goat price declined 36 cents (5 per cent) to 647 cents a kilogram in the week ending 24 July 2017. Despite this fall, goat meat prices are still 13 per cent higher than at the same time last year. The recent price decline follows a 120 per cent year-on-year increase in slaughter numbers. Goat meat exports have also increased year-on-year reaching 1,144 tonnes in July 2017, 13 per cent higher than the same month in 2016.

Domestic cereals

The domestic sorghum indicator price rose 7 per cent to $304 a tonne in the week ending 19 July 2017—the first time the price has exceeded $300 a tonne since September 2015. This follows all domestic cereal indicator prices moving higher in 2017 as concerns over the dry conditions early in the season weigh on domestic crop prospects.

Figure 1 Domestic cereal prices, 2017 to July

Line graphy showing domestic cereal prices (grain sorghum, milling wheat, feed wheat, feed barley) for 2017, to July. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description 

Current indicators – 27 July 2017

IndicatorWeek endedUnitLatest pricePrice week priorWeekly changePrice 12 months priorYear on year changeChart

Selected world indicator prices

Australian Dollar – AUD/USD Exchange Rate26-JulUS$/A$0.790.781%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.0.755%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Wheat – US no. 2 hard red winter wheat, fob Gulf25-JulUS$/t226237-5%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.18920%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Coarse Grains – US no. 2 yellow corn, fob Gulf26-JulUS$/t156157<1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.161-3%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Canola – Rapeseed, Europe, fob Hamburg25-JulUS$/t415419<1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.3965%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Cotton – Cotlook 'A' Index26-JulUSc/lb84.783.22%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.84.0<1%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Sugar – Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, no.11 contract26-JulUSc/lb14.314.2<1%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.19.5-27%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Wool – Eastern Market Indicator13-JulAc/kg clean1,5221,524<1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.1,31116%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Wool – Western Market Indicator14-JulAc/kg clean1,5701,561<1%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.1,42310%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart

Selected domestic crop indicator prices

Milling Wheat – ASW1, track quote, Port Adelaide, SA25-JulA$/t244256-5%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.2325%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Feed Wheat – General purpose, Sydney, NSW19-JulA$/t280283-1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.25112%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Feed Barley – Sydney, NSW19-JulA$/t253256-1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.20325%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Canola – Portland, Vic.17-JulA$/t510518-2%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.4904%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Grain Sorghum – Sydney, NSW19-JulA$/t3042847%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.22933%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart

Selected domestic livestock indicator prices

Beef – Eastern Young Cattle Indicator20-JulAc/kg cwt595598<1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.656-9%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Mutton – Mutton indicator (18-24 kg fat score 2-3), Vic21-JulAc/kg cwt4704329%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.40815%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Lamb – Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator20-JulAc/kg cwt6286054%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.6093%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Pig – Eastern Seaboard (60.1-75 kg), average of buyers & sellers14-JunAc/kg cwt275279-1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.379-27%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Goat – Eastern States (12.1-16 kg)24-JulAc/kg cwt647683-5%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.57413%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Live cattle – Light steers ex Darwin to Indonesia20-MayAc/kg lwt3203200%28014%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Live sheep – Live wether (Muchea WA saleyard) to Middle East17-Jul$/head12110416%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.nana chart

Global Dairy Trade weighted average pricesa

Dairy – Whole milk powder18-JulUS$/t3,1143,111<1%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.2,07950%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Dairy – Skim milk powder18-JulUS$/t2,0242,090-3%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.1,9275%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Dairy – Cheddar cheese18-JulUS$/t4,1124,0512%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.2,88642%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Dairy – Anhydrous milk fat18-JulUS$/t6,5776,596<1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.3,62881%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart

a Global Dairy Trade prices are updated twice monthly on the first and third Tuesday of each month.

Movements in selected fruit and vegetable prices
Data attribution

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Last reviewed:
27 Jul 2017