Weekly update - 28 June 2018

​​​​​​​​​​​Weekly Australian Climate,
Water and Agricultural Update

Key issues

  • During the week ending 27 June 2018 little to no rainfall was recorded across much of mainland Australia, with falls restricted to the south and east of the country.
  • For the week ending 26 June 2018, maximum temperatures were generally average across much of the country, while minimum temperatures were below average across south-eastern, western and central areas of the country.
  • According to the latest National Climate Outlook released by the Bureau of Meteorology, a drier than average July is more likely for most of New South Wales, southern Queensland, central South Australia, northern Victoria, and in parts of Western Australia and the Northern Territory. In contrast, a wetter than average July is more likely in western parts of Western Australia.
  • The rainfall outlook for July to September indicates that drier than average conditions are more likely across most of New South Wales, Queensland, northern Victoria, northern parts of Western Australia and the Northern Territory, and eastern parts of South Australia. A wetter than average three months is more likely across eastern Tasmania.
  • During the next eight days, rainfall is expected across the south-west and east of mainland Australia, and most of Tasmania. Little to no rainfall is forecast across the remainder of the country.
  • Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) increased during the week ending 28 June 2018 by 77 gigalitres (GL) to 11,706 GL and are at 52 per cent of total capacity. This is 17 percentage points or 3833 GL less than at the same time last year.
  • Allocation prices in the southern Murray–Darling Basin increased in the week ending 28 June 2018 to $185 per ML. This is an increase of $11 from the same time last week.

Climate

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Rainfall this week

During the week ending 27  June 2018 little to no rainfall was recorded across much of mainland Australia, with falls restricted to the south and east of the country. Rainfall totals of between 10 and 50 millimetres were recorded across far south-western and south-eastern Western Australia, south-western and north-eastern South Australia, southern Queensland and central New South Wales.

Higher totals of up to 100 millimetres were recorded across coastal parts of Queensland south of Cairns, and western Tasmania. The highest recorded weekly total was 118 millimetres at Topaz Alert, south of Cairns in northern Queensland.

Rainfall analysis for the week ending 27 June 2018

Map showing weekly rainfall totals in Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2018, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 27/6/2018

Note: The rainfall analyses and associated maps utilise data contained in the Bureau of Meteorology climate database, the Australian Data Archive for Meteorology (ADAM). The analyses are initially produced automatically from real-time data with limited quality control. They are intended to provide a general overview of rainfall across Australia as quickly as possible after the observations are received. For further information go to Weekly Rainfall Update.

Temperature anomalies this week

For the week ending 26  June 2018, maximum temperatures were generally average across much of the country. Maximum temperatures were slightly above average (2°C to 4°C) in scattered areas of Queensland and New South Wales, and slightly below average (-2°C to -4°C) in isolated areas of Western Australia and the Northern Territory. Minimum temperatures were below average (-2°C to -6°C) across south-eastern, western and central areas of the country. Minimum temperatures were generally average for the rest of Australia.

Maximum temperature anomalies for the week ending 26 June 2018

Map showing maximum temperature anomalies in Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2018, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 27/6/2018

Minimum temperature anomalies for the week ending 26 June 2018

Map showing minimum temperature anomalies in Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description.] 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2018, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 27/6/2018

Note: Spatial temperature analyses are based on historical weekly temperature data provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. These temperature anomaly maps show the departure of the maximum and minimum temperatures from the average over the 1961 to 1990 reference period. For further information go to Daily maximum temperature for Australia.

National Climate Outlook

The rainfall and temperature outlooks presented below show the likelihood, represented as a percentage, of experiencing wetter or drier (and warmer or cooler) than median climatic conditions for the given outlook periods. Climate outlooks are generated by the Predictive Climate Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA), a dynamical (physics-based) climate model developed by the Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric research division.

For further information, go to About the climate outlooks

The current outlook reflects the neutral state of broad-scale climate drivers, such as El Niño, La Niña and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), meaning they are currently having little influence on Australia's climate.

When broad-scale drivers are neutral, the climate is often influenced by secondary climate drivers or more local effects. The current outlook is suggesting that higher than average mean sea level pressures to the south of Australia are influential, resulting in weaker westerly winds and fewer cold fronts from the Southern Ocean affecting south-east Australia.

A drier than average July is more likely mainly across the eastern half of mainland Australia, with parts of the south-east having a greater than 70 per cent chance of a drier than average month. In contrast, a wetter than average July is more likely in western parts of Western Australia. For the remainder of the country there are roughly equal chances of a wetter or drier than average July (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 28 June 2018).

Chance of exceeding the median rainfall July 2018

Map of the total forecast rainfall for the next 8 days. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

The rainfall outlook for July to September indicates drier than average conditions in northern and eastern mainland Australia. A wetter than average three months is more likely across eastern Tasmania (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 28 June 2018).

Chance of exceeding the median rainfall July to September 2018

Map of the total forecast rainfall for the next 8 days. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

The maximum temperature outlook for July to September indicates that both daytime and night-time temperatures are more likely to be warmer than average across much of the country. Parts of the southeast have a greater than 80 per cent chance of a warmer days and nights. In contrast, night-time temperatures are more likely to be cooler than average in the tropical north of Queensland. There is no strong signal towards either above or below maximum temperatures across much of Western Australia, or above or below minimum temperatures across parts of northern Australia (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 28 June 2018).

Chance of exceeding the median maximum temperature July to September 2018

Map of the total forecast rainfall for the next 8 days. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

Chance of exceeding the median minimum temperature July to September 2018

Map of the total forecast rainfall for the next 8 days. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

Rainfall forecast for the next 8 days

During the next eight days, rainfall is expected across the south-west and east of mainland Australia, and most of Tasmania. Little to no rainfall is forecast across the remainder of the country. Rainfall totals of between 10 and 50 millimetres are forecast for south-western Western Australia, eastern New South Wales and Queensland, alpine areas of Victoria, and western and northern Tasmania. Heavier falls of between 50 and 100 millimetres are forecast for parts of far south-western Western Australia, south of Cairns in Queensland, and western Tasmania.

This rainfall forecast is produced from computer models. As it contains no input from weather forecasters, it is important to check local forecasts and warnings issued by the Bureau of Meteorology.

Total forecast rainfall (mm) for the period 28 June to 5 July 2018

Map of the total forecast rainfall for the next 8 days. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

Source: ©Commonwealth of Australia 2018, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 28/6/2018

Commodities

Current indicators – 28 June 2018

IndicatorWeek endedUnitLatest pricePrice week priorWeekly changePrice 12 months priorYear on year changeChart

Selected world indicator prices

Australian Dollar – AUD/USD Exchange Rate27-JunUS$/A$0.740.75-1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.0.76-3%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Wheat – US no. 2 hard red winter wheat, fob Gulf26-JunUS$/t233244-5%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.236-1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Coarse Grains – US no. 2 yellow corn, fob Gulf27-JunUS$/t1621620%1545%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Canola – Rapeseed, Europe, fob Hamburga26-JunUS$/t3953892%403-2%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Cotton – Cotlook 'A' Index27-JunUSc/lb94.098.3-4%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.83.013%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Sugar – Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, no.11 contract27-JunUSc/lb11.912.1-2%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.12.7-6%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Wool – Eastern Market Indicator21-JunAc/kg clean2,0732,0213%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.1,53335%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Wool – Western Market Indicator15-JunAc/kg clean2,1882,167<1%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.1,56740%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart

Selected domestic crop indicator prices

Milling Wheat – ASW1, track quote, Port Adelaide, SA26-JunA$/t2852850%23720%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Feed Wheat – General purpose, Sydney, NSW20-JunA$/t3753750%25547%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Feed Barley – Sydney, NSW20-JunA$/t3503500%23648%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Canola – Portland, Vic.25-JunA$/t5135130%5052%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Grain Sorghum – Sydney, NSW20-JunA$/t3553550%28425%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart

Selected domestic livestock indicator prices

Beef – Eastern Young Cattle Indicator21-JunAc/kg cwt480479<1%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.633-24%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Mutton – Mutton indicator (18-24 kg fat score 2-3), Vic22-JunAc/kg cwt5184886%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.523<1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Lamb – Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator21-JunAc/kg cwt651654<1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.650<1%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Pig – Eastern Seaboard (60.1-75 kg), average of buyers & sellers15-JunAc/kg cwt251256-2%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.288-13%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Goat – Eastern States (12.1-16 kg)25-JunAc/kg cwt5165082%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.682-24%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Live cattle – Light steers ex Darwin to Indonesia16-JunAc/kg lwt2602600%nana chart
Live sheep – Live wether (Muchea WA saleyard) to Middle East14-May$/head95nana116-18%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart

Global Dairy Trade weighted average pricesa

Dairy – Whole milk powder19-JunUS$/t3,1893,205<1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.3,0226%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Dairy – Skim milk powder19-JunUS$/t2,0032,051-2%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.2,218-10%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Dairy – Cheddar cheese19-JunUS$/t3,8473,998-4%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.4,121-7%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Dairy – Anhydrous milk fat19-JunUS$/t6,0606,222-3%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.6,885-12%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart

a Global Dairy Trade prices are updated twice monthly on the first and third Tuesday of each month.

Selected world indicator prices
Selected domestic crop indicator prices
Selected domestic livestock indicator prices
Global dairy trade weighted average prices
Movements in selected fruit and vegetable prices
Data attribution

Water

Water storages, water markets and water allocations - current week

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Last reviewed:
28 Jun 2018