Weekly update - 28 September 2017

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Weekly Australian Climate,
Water and Agricultural Update

Key issues

  • During the week ending 27 September 2017 rainfall was mainly recorded in south-western and south-eastern Australia. Little to no rainfall was recorded across the rest of the country.
  • For the week ending 26 September 2017 maximum temperatures were well above average across most of mainland Australia. Parts of New South Wales, Queensland, South Australia and the Northern Territory recorded temperatures between 8°C and 10°C above average.
  • On 23 September, the hottest ever September day was recorded for the states of New South Wales (Wilcannia, 40.5°C) and Victoria (Mildura, 37.7°C). The record for the hottest September day for New South Wales was broken again on 27 September at Delta (41.3°C), while on that same day a new September record was set for Queensland at Birdsville (42.5°C).
  • The rainfall outlook for October to December 2017 indicates roughly equal chances for above or below average rainfall during this period for most of the country.
  • Rainfall during October 2017 is more likely to be above average across much of central and eastern Australia and below average in Western Australia.
  • For the next eight days, rainfall is mainly expected in central and eastern Australia. Totals between 5 and 50 millimetres are forecast for north-eastern New South Wales, southern Victoria, eastern and southern parts of Western Australia, and southern parts of the Northern Territory. Totals between 5 and 100 millimetres are forecast for northern South Australia, Tasmania and south-eastern Queensland.
  • Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) decreased during the week ending 28 September 2017 by 84 gigalitres (GL) to 16,820 GL and are at 74 per cent of total capacity. This is 131 GL less than at the same time last year.
  • Water market prices rose slightly in the week ending 28 September 2017. Average price across the whole southern Murray–Darling Basin system increased by $6.17 from the same time last week.

Climate

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Rainfall this week

During the week ending 27 September 2017 rainfall was mainly recorded in south-western and far south-eastern Australia. Little to no rainfall was recorded across the rest of the country. Rainfall totals between 5 and 100 millimetres were recorded in south-western Western Australia and across much of Tasmania. Totals between 5 and 25 millimetres were recorded in southern parts of Victoria, the far south east of South Australia, and isolated areas of coastal south-eastern Queensland and the Top End of the Northern Territory. The highest recorded weekly total was 160 millimetres at Porongurups, north of Albany in Western Australia.

Rainfall - week ending 27 September 2017

Map showing weekly rainfall totals in Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2017, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 27/09/2017

Note: The rainfall analyses and associated maps utilise data contained in the Bureau of Meteorology climate database, the Australian Data Archive for Meteorology (ADAM). The analyses are initially produced automatically from real-time data with limited quality control. They are intended to provide a general overview of rainfall across Australia as quickly as possible after the observations are received. For further information go to Weekly Rainfall Update.

Temperature anomalies this week

During the week ending 26 September 2017 maximum temperatures were well above average across most of mainland Australia. Parts of New South Wales, Queensland, South Australia and the Northern Territory recorded temperatures between 8°C and 10°C above average. Minimum temperatures were also above average (4°C and 8°C) over large parts of eastern, central and western Australia.

This unseasonable heat has seen numerous maximum temperature records set across central and eastern Australia. On 23 September, the hottest ever September day was recorded for the states of New South Wales (Wilcannia, 40.5°C) and Victoria (Mildura, 37.7°C). The record for the hottest September day for New South Wales was broken again on 27 September at Delta (41.3°C), while on that same day a new September record was set for Queensland at Birdsville (42.5°C).

Maximum temperature anomalies - week ending 26 September 2017

Map showing maximum temperature anomalies in Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2017, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 26/09/2017

Minimum temperature anomalies - week ending 26 September 2017

Map showing minimum temperature anomalies in Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description.] 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2017, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 26/09/2017

Note: Spatial temperature analyses are based on historical weekly temperature data provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. These temperature anomaly maps show the departure of the maximum and minimum temperatures from their long-term averages. Temperature anomalies are calculated using high-resolution gridded datasets from 1911 onwards. For further information go to Daily maximum temperature for Australia.

National Climate Outlook

The rainfall and temperature outlooks presented below show the likelihood, represented as a percentage, of experiencing wetter or drier (and warmer or cooler) than median climatic conditions for the given outlook periods. Climate outlooks are generated by the Predictive Climate Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA), a dynamical (physics-based) climate model developed by the Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric research division.

For further information, go to About the outlook

This outlook is influenced by competing climate drivers, with a slightly drying influence in the Indian Ocean likely to be cancelling out a slightly wetter influence from the Pacific Ocean.

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral, although temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean have been cooling since mid-winter. Five of the eight models surveyed by the Bureau suggest La Niña thresholds will be reached by December 2017, but only four maintain these values for long enough to be classified as a La Niña event. In previous late-developing La Niña events, the effect on summer rainfall has been mixed, where some resulted in widespread wet conditions across eastern Australia while others had minimal impact on rainfall.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is neutral and model consensus suggests it is likely to continue. Three of the six climate models surveyed suggest a positive IOD may develop during spring, but it may now be too late to become an event. If a positive IOD eventuated, it would likely be short-lived, as events typically decay by December.

Rainfall during October 2017 is more likely to be above average across much of central and eastern Australia and below average in Western Australia. The remainder of mainland Australia has roughly equal chances of a wetter or drier than average October (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 28 September 2017).

Chance of exceeding the median rainfall October 2017

Map showing chance of exceeding the median rainfall. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description.  

The rainfall outlook for October to December 2017 indicates roughly equal chances for above or below average rainfall during this period for most of the country (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 28 September 2017).

Chance of exceeding the median rainfall October to December 2017

Map showing chance of exceeding the median rainfall. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

The temperature outlook for October to December 2017 indicates that maximum and minimum temperatures are more likely to be above average for northern Australia, Western Australia and parts of south-eastern Australia. Minimum temperatures are less likely to exceed the average in southern parts of South Australia and adjacent parts of Western Australia. The remainder of the country has roughly equal chances of above or below average maximum temperatures during this period (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 28 September 2017).

Chance of exceeding the median maximum temperature October to December 2017

Map showing chance of exceeding the median maximum temperature. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

Chance of exceeding the median minimum temperature October to December 2017

Map showing chance of exceeding the median minimum temperature. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

 

Rainfall forecast for the next 8 days

Rainfall is expected mainly in central and eastern Australia during the next eight days. Totals between 5 and 50 millimetres are forecast for north-eastern New South Wales, southern Victoria, eastern and southern parts of Western Australia, and southern parts of the Northern Territory. Totals between 5 and 100 millimetres are forecast for northern South Australia, western Tasmania and south-eastern Queensland, with higher totals around Bundaberg (100 to 200 millimetres).

This rainfall forecast is produced from computer models. As it contains no input from weather forecasters, it is important to check local forecasts and warnings issued by the Bureau of Meteorology.

Total forecast rainfall (mm) for the period 28 September to 5 October 2017

Map of the total forecast rainfall for the next 8 days. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

Source: ©Commonwealth of Australia 2017, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 28/09/2017

Water

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Water availability

Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) decreased during the week ending 28 September 2017 by 84 gigalitres (GL) to 16,820 GL and are at 74 per cent of total capacity. This is 131 GL less than at the same time last year.

Visit the interactive Tableau data dashboard

Water storages in the Murray-Darling Basin (NSW, Victoria and Queensland)

Line graph showing water storages in the Murray–Darling Basin (NSW, Victoria and Queensland) from 2000 to 2017, measured as a percentage of the total storage of 22,598 gigalitres. 

Information on water available in dams used for irrigation the Murray–Darling Basin from 1 January 2001 to 28 September 2017 is shown above. The top horizontal (short dash) line indicates the storage level during a similar time last year. The bottom horizontal (long dash) line indicates the amount of ‘dead’ or unusable storage.

Water markets

Allocation prices in the southern Murray–Darling Basin rose slightly in the week up to 28 September 2017 in most systems. Average prices across the whole southern system increased to $122.20 per megalitre. This is an increase of $6.17 from the same time last week. This contrasts with an average price of $131 in August across the whole southern MDB.

Allocation trade activity in the southern Murray–Darling Basin

Allocation trade activity in the southern Murray-Darling Basin. The trades shown reflect market activity and do not encompass all register trades. The price line reflects locally fitted price values for the entire southern Murray-Darling Basin.  

The trades shown reflect estimated market activity and do not encompass all register trades. The price line reflects locally fitted price values for the entire southern Murray–Darling Basin. Data shown is current until Thursday 28 September 2017. Trade activity is shown as colour density.

Allocation trade prices, southern Murray–Darling Basin trade zones

 

Southern MDB

Victoria Goulburn

SA Murray

NSW Murrumbidgee

Victoria Murray

NSW Murray

Current week: 22/09/17 - 28/09/17

$122.20

$102.55

$126.19

$131.90

$133.86

$133.23

Last week: 15/09/17 - 21/09/17

$118.00

$99.78

$100.45

$113.88

$134.48

$133.33

August 2017

$131.28

$110.24

$161.23

$127.74

$136.77

$136.43

August 2016

$104.99

$119.52

$126.31

$97.91

$147.31

$77.90

Commodities

Current indicators – 28 September 2017

IndicatorWeek endedUnitLatest pricePrice week priorWeekly changePrice 12 months priorYear on year changeChart

Selected world indicator prices

Australian Dollar – AUD/USD Exchange Rate27-SepUS$/A$0.790.8-1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.0.764%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Wheat – US no. 2 hard red winter wheat, fob Gulf26-SepUS$/t220218<1%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.19513%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Coarse Grains – US no. 2 yellow corn, fob Gulf27-SepUS$/t1481452%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.149<1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Canola – Rapeseed, Europe, fob Hamburga19-SepUS$/t4374302%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.4214%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Cotton – Cotlook 'A' Index27-SepUSc/lb79.079.2<1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.79.9-1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Sugar – Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, no.11 contract27-SepUSc/lb13.814.2-3%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.22.6-39%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Wool – Eastern Market Indicator21-SepAc/kg clean1,5251,5250%1,28718%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Wool – Western Market Indicatora22-SepAc/kg clean1,5721,570<1%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.1,38414%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart

Selected domestic crop indicator prices

Milling Wheat – ASW1, track quote, Port Adelaide, SA26-SepA$/t2282213%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.20710%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Feed Wheat – General purpose, Sydney, NSW27-SepA$/t27324810%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.23616%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Feed Barley – Sydney, NSW27-SepA$/t2562464%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.18141%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Canola – Portland, Vic.25-SepA$/t5085080%5002%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Grain Sorghum – Sydney, NSW27-SepA$/t311314<1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.20452%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart

Selected domestic livestock indicator prices

Beef – Eastern Young Cattle Indicator21-SepAc/kg cwt517524-1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.713-27%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Mutton – Mutton indicator (18-24 kg fat score 2-3), Vic22-SepAc/kg cwt393397-1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.403-2%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Lamb – Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator21-SepAc/kg cwt598597<1%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.624-4%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Pig – Eastern Seaboard (60.1-75 kg), average of buyers & sellers15-SepAc/kg cwt2832772%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.377-25%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Goat – Eastern States (12.1-16 kg)25-SepAc/kg cwt4664660%579-20%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Live cattle – Light steers ex Darwin to Indonesia23-SepAc/kg lwt3303203%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.360-8%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Live sheep – Live wether (Muchea WA saleyard) to Middle East25-Sep$/head111117-5%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.9912%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart

Global Dairy Trade weighted average pricesb

Dairy – Whole milk powder19-SepUS$/t3,1223,100<1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.2,78212%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Dairy – Skim milk powder19-SepUS$/t1,9201,944-1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.2,293-16%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Dairy – Cheddar cheese19-SepUS$/t4,0324,118-2%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.3,51815%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Dairy – Anhydrous milk fat19-SepUS$/t6,7646,4056%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.4,99835%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart

a Current price unavailable at time of publishing, price quote is last week’s price.
b Global Dairy Trade prices are updated twice monthly on the first and third Tuesday of each month.

Movements in selected fruit and vegetable prices
Data attribution

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Last reviewed:
28 Sep 2017