Weekly update - 29 June 2017

​​​​Weekly Australian Climate,
Water and Agricultural Update

Key issues

  • During the week ending 28 June 2017 rainfall totals exceeding 25 millimetres were recorded in south-western and central Western Australia, northern South Australia, north-eastern Queensland and western Tasmania.
  • For the week ending 27 June 2017 maximum temperatures were between 2°C and 6°C above average across northern, central and north-eastern parts of the country. Minimum temperatures were above average (2°C to 4°C) in western and central Australia and below average (2°C to 6°C) in south-eastern Australia.
  • The rainfall outlook for July to September 2017 indicates that below average rainfall is more likely in south-western and south-eastern Australia. The remainder of the country has roughly equal chances of above or below average rainfall during this period.
  • The forecast for the next eight days indicates that rainfall totals between 10 and 50 millimetres are expected in south-eastern and north-eastern Queensland, and north-eastern and alpine regions of New South Wales. Similar totals are forecast for southern coastal and alpine areas of Victoria, coastal South Australia, south-western Western Australia and western Tasmania.
  • Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) decreased by 26 gigalitres (GL) during the week ending 29 June 2017 to 15,540 GL and are at 69 per cent of total capacity.
  • Allocation prices in the southern Murray-Darling Basin increased in the week up to 29 June 2017. Average prices across the whole southern system increased to $47.42.
  • WaterNSW has made the unusual step of reopening trade in the NSW Murray. This reflects a recent review of regulations which, unlike previous years, does not prohibit trade beyond 31 May.
  • The World Sugar indicator price fell by 5 per cent in the week ending 28 June 2017, reflecting increased production in Brazil.
  • The Australian Pig indicator price fell marginally in the week ending 16 June 2017 and is 24 per cent lower year on year, as a result of increased supply.
  • Flooding and crop damage resulting from ex-tropical cyclone Debbie has driven the tomato (gourmet) price index up markedly higher in May and June 2017.

Climate

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Rainfall this week

During the week ending 28 June 2017 widespread rainfall was recorded across south-western and central Western Australia, with totals exceeding 25 millimetres. A middle level trough and associated cloud band brought similar totals to northern pastoral areas in South Australia. Rainfall totals exceeded 25 millimetres in parts of north-eastern Queensland and exceeded 50 millimetres in western Tasmania. The highest recorded weekly total was 137 millimetres at Wilgarra, near Perth in Western Australia.

The rainfall analyses and associated maps utilise data contained in the Bureau of Meteorology climate database, the Australian Data Archive for Meteorology (ADAM). The analyses are initially produced automatically from real-time data with limited quality control. They are intended to provide a general overview of rainfall across Australia as quickly as possible after the observations are received.

For further information go to Weekly Rainfall Update

Rainfall - week ending 28 June 2017

Map showing weekly rainfall totals in Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2017, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 28/06/2017

Temperature anomalies this week

During the week ending 27 June 2017 maximum temperatures were between 2°C and 4°C above average across much of northern, central and eastern parts of the country, with areas between 4°C and 6°C above average in central Queensland and central parts of the Northern Territory. Maximum temperatures were close to average across the rest of the country. Minimum temperatures were above average (2°C to 4°C) in parts of central Western Australia, northern South Australia and western Queensland. Minimum temperatures were below average (2°C to 6°C) in eastern parts of Queensland, southern New South Wales, and eastern South Australia. Minimum temperatures were close to average for the remainder of Australia.

Maximum temperature anomalies - week ending 27 June 2017

Map showing maximum temperature anomalies in Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2017, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 27/06/2017

Minimum temperature anomalies - week ending 27 June 2017

Map showing minimum temperature anomalies in Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description.] 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2017, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 27/06/2017

Note: Spatial temperature analyses are based on historical weekly temperature data provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. These temperature anomaly maps show the departure of the maximum and minimum temperatures from their long-term averages. Temperature anomalies are calculated using high-resolution gridded datasets from 1911 onwards. For further information go to Daily maximum temperature for Australia.

National Climate Outlook to the end of August

The rainfall and temperature outlooks presented below show the likelihood, represented as a percentage, of experiencing wetter or drier (and warmer or cooler) than median climatic conditions for the given outlook periods. Climate outlooks are generated by the Predictive Climate Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA), a dynamical (physics-based) climate model developed by the Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric research division.

For further information, go to About the climate outlooks

The outlook is being influenced by anticipated higher than average mean sea level pressure over southern Australia, a southward shift of the sub-tropical ridge over Australia, and a forecast positive Southern Annular Mode (SAM). These influences are likely to keep rain-bearing frontal systems and low pressure systems further south than is typical for this time of year, reducing cloudiness over land.

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral and all international climate models suggest ENSO neutral conditions for the remainder of 2017. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) also remains neutral. Half of the international climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology suggest a positive IOD remains possible–typically bringing drier weather to southern and central Australia.

Rainfall during July 2017 is more likely to be below average in parts of eastern Australia and south-western Australia. Parts of northern Australia and eastern Tasmania have higher chances of exceeding the median rainfall. The remainder of the country has roughly equal chances of a wetter or drier than average July (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 29 June 2017).

Chance of exceeding the median rainfall July 2017

Map showing chance of exceeding the median rainfall. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. ​​

​​The rainfall outlook for July to September 2017 indicates that below average rainfall is more likely in south-western and south-eastern Australia. The remainder of the country has roughly equal chances of above or below average rainfall during this period (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 29 June 2017).​

Chance of exceeding the median rainfall July to September 2017

Map showing chance of exceeding the median rainfall. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

The temperature outlook for July to September 2017 indicates an increased chance of above average maximum temperatures for most of Australia, except for south-eastern Western Australia and central South Australia where chances are roughly equal of above or below average maximum temperatures.

Minimum temperatures are more likely to be above average for much of Australia, except for eastern parts of Western Australia, north-western and south-eastern South Australia, and western Victoria, where there are equal chances of above or below median minimum temperature (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 29 June 2017).

Chance of exceeding the median maximum temperature July to September 2017

Map showing chance of exceeding the median maximum temperature. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. ​​

Chance of exceeding the median minimum temperature July to September 2017

Map showing chance of exceeding the median minimum temperature. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

Rainfall forecast for the next 8 days

The forecast for the next eight days indicates that widespread rainfall is expected across much of eastern and southern Australia. Totals between 10 and 50 millimetres are expected in south-eastern and north-eastern Queensland, and north-eastern and alpine regions of New South Wales. Similar totals are forecast for southern coastal and alpine areas of Victoria, coastal South Australia, south-western Western Australia and western Tasmania.

Total forecast rainfall (mm) for the period 29 to 6 July 2017

Map of the total forecast rainfall for the next 8 days. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2017, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 29/06/2017

Water

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Water availability

Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) decreased during the week ending 29 June 2017 by 26 gigalitres (GL) to 15,540 GL and are at 69 per cent of total capacity. This is 30 percentage points or 6,785 GL more than at the same time last year.

Water storages in the Murray-Darling Basin (NSW, Victoria and Queensland)

Line graph showing water storages in the Murray–Darling Basin (NSW, Victoria and Queensland) from 2000 to 2017, measured as a percentage of the total storage of 22,598 gigalitres. 

Information on irrigation water available in the Murray–Darling Basin from 1 January 2001 to 29 June 2017 is shown above. The top horizontal (short dash) line indicates the storage level during a similar time last year. The bottom horizontal (long dash) line indicates the amount of ‘dead’ or unusable storage.

Water markets

Allocation prices in the southern Murray-Darling Basin increased in the week up to 29 June 2017. Average prices across the whole southern system increased to $47.42. This is an increase of $5.10 or 12 per cent from the same time last week. This contrasts with an average price of $22.68 in May across the whole southern MDB and $31.93 in April.

WaterNSW has made the unusual step of reopening trade in the NSW Murray. This reflects a review of regulations which, unlike previous years, does not prohibit trade beyond 31 May.

Allocation trade activity in the southern Murray-Darling Basin

Allocation trade activity in the southern Murray-Darling Basin. The trades shown reflect market activity and do not encompass all register trades. The price line reflects locally fitted price values for the entire southern Murray-Darling Basin. 

The trades shown reflect market activity and do not encompass all register trades. The price line reflects locally fitted price values for the entire southern Murray-Darling Basin. Data shown is current until Thursday 29 June, 2017.

Allocation trade prices, southern Murray-Darling Basin (price per ML)

 

Southern MDB

Goulburn

South Australia

Murrumbidgee

Victoria Murray

NSW Murray

Current week: 23/06/17 - 29/06/17

$47.42

$50.11

$46.19

NA

$48.64

$14.55

Last week: 16/06/17 - 22/06/17

$42.33

$43.03

$40.99

NA

$42.64

NA

May 2017

$22.69

$27.82

$29.92

$5.50

$27.72

$23.67

May 2016

$233.65

$251.07

$253.98

$190.14

$249.59

$220.62

Commodities

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Market focus

Sugar

Increased sugar supplies from Brazil have resulted in world sugar prices falling in the week ending 28 June 2017 by 5 per cent to average US12.7 cents a pound. According to the Brazil Sugar Industry Association, sugar production in the Brazil South-Central region (which produces around 90 per cent of the country’s sugar) rose by 42 per cent in the fortnight to 16 June 2017 to around 8.1 million tonnes, compared with the fortnight to 1 June 2017.

Pigs

The eastern seaboard indicator price for pigs fell marginally in the week ending 16 June 2017 to average 288 cents a kilogram (carcase weight). This is 24 per cent lower than the same week in the previous year and reflects increased supplies of pigs for slaughter in Australia. National Livestock Reporting Service (NLRS) data shows pig slaughter for the fiscal year to date (16 June 2017) is 5 per cent higher than in the previous year. Pig meat imports have also increase in 2016–17, up 3 per cent year-on-year for the July 2016 to April 2017 period.

Cumulative pig slaughter and pig meat imports, Australia, fiscal years 2014-15 to 2016-17

Line graph showing cumulative pig slaughter. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

Line graph showing cumulative pig meat imports. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

Source: Meat & Livestock Australia data library; ABS Cat. No. 5368.0 - International Trade in Goods and Services, Australia

Tomatoes

The Melbourne wholesale price index of gourmet tomatoes across May and June 2017 averaged twice as high as the same period last year. The high price of tomatoes follows ex-tropical cyclone Debbie. Significant flooding and crop damage across Bowen in early April as a result of the cyclone resulted in widespread crop losses and disruptions to the growing season. Bowen is a key region for tomato and other winter vegetable production in Australia and accounted for approximately 19 per cent of Australian fresh tomato production in 2014–15.

Wholesale price index for Gourmet Tomatoes, Melbourne 2015-16 and 2016-17

Line graph showing Wholesale price index for Gourmet Tomatoes, Melbourne 2015–16 and 2016–17. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

Source: Data Fresh, Ausmarket Consultants

Current indicators – 29 June 2017

IndicatorWeek endedUnitLatest pricePrice week priorWeekly changePrice 12 months priorYear on year changeChart

Selected world indicator prices

Australian Dollar – AUD/USD Exchange Rate28-JunUS$/A$0.760.760%0.743%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Wheat – US no. 2 hard red winter wheat, fob Gulf27-JunUS$/t2362360%18925%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Coarse Grains – US no. 2 yellow corn, fob Gulf28-JunUS$/t154161-4%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.174-11%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Canola – Rapeseed, Europe, fob Hamburg27-JunUS$/t4034030%3942%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Cotton – Cotlook 'A' Index28-JunUSc/lb83.083.5<-1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.75.111%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Sugar – Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, no.11 contract28-JunUSc/lb12.713.4-5%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.19.6-35%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Wool – Eastern Market Indicator22-JunAc/kg clean1,5331,5062%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.1,28519%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Wool – Western Market Indicator16-JunAc/kg clean1,5671,5044%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.1,37014%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart

Selected domestic crop indicator prices

Milling Wheat – ASW1, track quote, Port Adelaide, SA27-JunA$/t2372255%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.258-6%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Feed Wheat – General purpose, Sydney, NSW21-JunA$/t2502404%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.275-9%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Feed Barley – Sydney, NSW21-JunA$/t2312262%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.2310% chart
Canola – Portland, Vic.19-JunA$/t507503<1%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.520-3%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Grain Sorghum – Sydney, NSW21-JunA$/t2792790%2569% chart

Selected domestic livestock indicator prices

Beef – Eastern Young Cattle Indicator22-JunAc/kg cwt633643-2%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.6192%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Mutton – Mutton indicator (18-24 kg fat score 2-3), Vic23-JunAc/kg cwt523533-2%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.42025%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Lamb – Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator22-JunAc/kg cwt650666-2%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.6274%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Pig – Eastern Seaboard (60.1-75 kg), average of buyers & sellers16-JunAc/kg cwt288289<-1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.379-24%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Goat – Eastern States (12.1-16 kg)26-JunAc/kg cwt657660<-1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.56317%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Live cattle – Light steers ex Darwin to Indonesia20-MayAc/kg lwt3203200%28014%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Live sheep – Live wether (Muchea WA saleyard) to Middle East19-Jun$/head93123-24%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.105-11%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart

Global Dairy Trade weighted average pricesa

Dairy – Whole milk powder20-JunUS$/t3,0223,143-4%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.2,11843%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Dairy – Skim milk powder20-JunUS$/t2,2182,1563%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.190117%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Dairy – Cheddar cheese20-JunUS$/t4,1214,285-4%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.2,88243%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Dairy – Anhydrous milk fat20-JunUS$/t6,8856,6314%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.3,61990%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart

a Global Dairy Trade prices are updated twice monthly on the first and third Tuesday of each month.

Note: Price week prior for Wool – Western Market Indicator refers to week ending 5 June 2017 and Price 12 months prior refers to week ending 3 June 2016. Price week prior for Canola – Portland, Vic. refers to week ending 2 June 2017. Price week prior for Live sheep – Live wether (Muchea WA saleyard) to Middle East refers to week ending 5 June 2017 and Price 12 months prior refers to week ending 3 June 2016.

Movements in selected fruit and vegetable prices
Data attribution

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Last reviewed:
30 Jun 2017