Weekly update - 29 November 2018

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Weekly ​Australian Climate,
Water and Agricultural Update

Key issues

  • During the week ending 28 November 2018 widespread rainfall was recorded across areas of eastern, southern and northern Australia.
  • In cropping regions, rainfall totals of between 10 and 50 millimetres were recorded across large areas of New South Wales, southern Victoria and parts of central and southern Queensland, most regions in South Australia and isolated areas of southern Western Australia. For remaining cropping regions, little or no rainfall was recorded.
  • For the week ending 27 November 2018, maximum temperatures were variable ranging from above average (2°C to 8°C) across eastern Queensland to below average (-2°C to -8°C) across much of south-eastern Australia and parts of Western Australia.
  • The latest rainfall outlook released by the Bureau of Meteorology indicates that there are roughly equal chances of a wetter or drier than average December across much of the country.
  • The rainfall outlook for December 2018 to February 2019 indicates that a drier than average three months is likely for much of Queensland, the norther half of Western Australia and parts of the Northern Territory. Meanwhile, for the remainder of the country there is roughly equal chances of a wetter or drier three months.
  • During the next eight days, rainfall is expected to be restricted to parts of northern, central, eastern and far south of Australia.
  • In cropping regions, rainfall totals of between 5 and 25 millimetres are expected across northern areas of Queensland. Little to no rainfall is forecast for all other cropping regions during the next 8 days.
  • Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) decreased during the week ending 22 November 2018 by 135 gigalitres (GL) to 10,678 GL and are at 47 per cent of total capacity.
  • Allocation prices in the southern Murray-Darling Basin increased in the week ending 22 November 2018 to $398 per ML. This is an increase of $2 from the same time last week.

Climate

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Rainfall this week

During the week ending 28 November 2018 widespread rainfall was recorded across areas of eastern, southern and northern Australia. Rainfall totals of between 10 and 50 millimetres were recorded across parts of central and eastern New South Wales, eastern and southern Victoria, parts of central, southern and northern Queensland, the south of South Australia and parts of northern and southern Western Australia. Similar totals were recorded across Tasmania and the northern half of the Northern Territory.

Higher rainfall totals in excess of 50 millimetres were recorded across parts of eastern New South Wales, eastern Victoria, isolated areas of northern Queensland and parts of northern Tasmania and the north of the Northern Territory.

In cropping regions, rainfall totals were highly variable. Falls of between 10 and 50 millimetres were recorded across large areas of New South Wales, southern Victoria and parts of central and southern Queensland, most regions in South Australia and isolated areas of southern Western Australia. For remaining cropping regions, little or no rainfall was recorded.

Rainfall analysis for the week ending 28 November 2018

Map showing weekly rainfall totals in Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2018, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 28/11/2018

Note: The rainfall analyses and associated maps utilise data contained in the Bureau of Meteorology climate database, the Australian Data Archive for Meteorology (ADAM). The analyses are initially produced automatically from real-time data with limited quality control. They are intended to provide a general overview of rainfall across Australia as quickly as possible after the observations are received. For further information go to Weekly Rainfall Update.

Temperature anomalies this week

For the week ending 27 November 2018, maximum temperatures were variable ranging from above average (2°C to 8°C) across eastern Queensland to below average (-2°C to -8°C) across much of south-eastern Australia and parts of Western Australia. Minimum temperatures were generally average for the week ending 27 November 2018.

Maximum temperature anomalies for the week ending 27 November 2018

Map showing maximum temperature anomalies for Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2018, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 28/11/2018

Minimum temperature anomalies for the week ending 27 November 2018

Map showing minimum temperature anomalies for Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2018, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 28/11/2018

Note: Spatial temperature analyses are based on historical weekly temperature data provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. These temperature anomaly maps show the departure of the maximum and minimum temperatures from the average over the 1961 to 1990 reference period. For further information go to Daily maximum temperature for Australia.

National Climate Outlook

The rainfall and temperature outlooks presented here show the likelihood, represented as a percentage, of experiencing wetter or drier (and warmer or cooler) than median climatic conditions for the given outlook periods. These climate outlooks are generated by ACCESS–S (Australian Community Climate Earth-System Simulator–Seasonal). ACCESS–S is the Bureau of Meteorology's dynamical (physics-based) weather and climate model used for monthly, seasonal and longer-lead climate outlooks. Prior to August 2018, climate outlooks were produced by the Bureau's earlier model, POAMA.

For further information, go to About the climate outlooks

Development towards El Niño in the tropical Pacific Ocean continues, with outlooks suggesting El Niño is likely to form during the summer months. In summer, El Niño typically brings drier conditions to parts of northern Australia, but tends to have less rainfall influence in the current drought areas of southeast Australia. El Niño also typically brings warmer than average days to large parts of the continent. A positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event is currently dominating Australia's weather and climate patterns. However, the positive IOD is likely to decay by early summer, which is typical of its life cycle. During December to April, the IOD typically has little effect on Australian climate, and therefore is not expected to play a role over the coming summer.

The increased potential for El Niño and a positive IOD is influencing the Bureau of Meteorology’s December–February climate outlook.

The latest rainfall outlook released by the Bureau of Meteorology indicates that there are roughly equal chances of a wetter or drier than average December across much of the country. However, a drier than average December is more likely for the north-west of Western Australia, and parts of northern Queensland and the Northern Territory (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 29 November 2018).

Chance of exceeding the median rainfall December 2018

 

The rainfall outlook for December 2018 to February 2019 indicates that a drier than average three months is more likely for much of Queensland, the norther half of Western Australia and parts of the Northern Territory. For the remainder of the country there are roughly equal chances of a wetter or drier three months (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 29 November 2018).

Chance of exceeding the median rainfall December 2018 to February 2019

 

The temperature outlook for December 2018 to February 2019 indicates that daytime temperatures are more likely to be warmer than average for Australia. Night-time temperatures are also likely to be warmer than average for much of the country, with the exception of north-east Western Australia, where the chances of warmer or cooler nights are roughly equal (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 29 November 2018).

Chance of exceeding the median maximum temperature December 2018 to February 2019

 

Chance of exceeding the median minimum temperature December 2018 to February 2019

 

Rainfall forecast for the next 8 days

During the next eight days, rainfall is expected rainfall is expected to be restricted to parts of northern, central, eastern and far south of Australia.

Rainfall totals of between 10 and 50 millimetres are forecast for isolated areas of southern Victoria, parts of northern and eastern Queensland, parts of the north-east and east of Western Australia, Tasmania and the north of the Northern Territory.

In cropping regions, rainfall totals of between 5 and 25 millimetres are expected across northern areas of Queensland. Little to no rainfall is forecast for all other cropping regions during the next 8 days.

This rainfall forecast is produced from computer models. As it contains no input from weather forecasters, it is important to check local forecasts and warnings issued by the Bureau of Meteorology.

Total forecast rainfall (mm) for the period 29 November to 6 December 2018

Map of the total forecast rainfall for the next 8 days. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2018, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 29/11/2018

Commodities

Current indicators – 29 November 2018

IndicatorWeek endedUnitLatest pricePrice week priorWeekly changePrice 12 months priorYear on year changeChart

Selected world indicator prices

Australian Dollar – AUD/USD Exchange Rate28-NovUS$/A$0.720.73-1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.0.76-5%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.chart
Wheat – US no. 2 hard red winter wheat, fob Gulf27-NovUS$/t228231-1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.2185%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.chart
Coarse Grains – US no. 2 yellow corn, fob Gulf28-NovUS$/t158160-1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.1487%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.chart
Canola – Rapeseed, Europe, fob Hamburg27-NovUS$/t423427<1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.434-3%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.chart
Cotton – Cotlook 'A' Index28-NovUSc/lb86.286.1<1%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.82.05%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.chart
Sugar – Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, no.11 contract28-NovUSc/lb12.412.7-2%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.15.2-18%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.chart
Wool – Eastern Market Indicator22-NovAc/kg clean1,8581,7814%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.1,66911%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.chart
Wool – Western Market Indicator23-NovAc/kg clean2,0161,9354%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.1,71717%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.chart

Selected domestic crop indicator prices

Milling Wheat – ASW1, track quote, Port Adelaide, SA27-NovA$/t357359<1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.24049%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.chart
Feed Wheat – General purpose, Sydney, NSW21-NovA$/t4404400%25871%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.chart
Feed Barley – Sydney, NSW28-NovA$/t410435-6%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.25064%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.chart
Canola – Portland, Vic.29-OctA$/t597 642-7%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.53611%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.chart
Grain Sorghum – Sydney, NSW28-NovA$/t4104100%31929%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.chart

Selected domestic livestock indicator prices

Beef – Eastern Young Cattle Indicator22-NovAc/kg cwt5285172%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.577-8%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.chart
Mutton – Mutton indicator (18–24 kg fat score 2–3), Vic23-NovAc/kg cwt412428-4%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.470-12%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.chart
Lamb – Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator22-NovAc/kg cwt693695<1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.61014%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.chart
Pig – Eastern Seaboard (60.1–75 kg), average of buyers & sellers16-NovAc/kg cwt296 2806%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.2767%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.chart
Goat – Eastern States (12.1–16 kg)26-NovAc/kg cwt5485382%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.49012%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.chart
Live cattle – Light steers ex Darwin to Indonesia17-NovAc/kg lwt3103100%330-6%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.chart
Live sheep – Live wether (Muchea WA saleyard) to Middle East05-Nov$/head100 na na105-5%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.chart

Global Dairy Trade (GDT) weighted average prices a

Dairy – Whole milk powder20-NovUS$/t2,5992,655-2%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.2,778-6%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.chart
Dairy – Skim milk powder20-NovUS$/t1,9651,997-2%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.1,70116%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.chart
Dairy – Cheddar cheese20-NovUS$/t3,2523,250<1%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.3,831-15%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.chart
Dairy – Anhydrous milk fat20-NovUS$/t4,5775,044-9%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.6,887-34%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.chart

a Global Dairy Trade prices are updated twice monthly on the first and third Tuesday of each month.

Selected world indicator prices
Selected domestic crop indicator prices
Selected domestic livestock indicator prices
Global dairy trade weighted average prices
Movements in selected fruit and vegetable prices
Data attribution

Water

Water storages, water markets and water allocations - current week

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Last reviewed:
29 Nov 2018