Weekly update - 30 November 2017

​​​​​​​Weekly Australian Climate,
Water and Agricultural Update

Key issues

  • During the week ending 29 November 2017 rainfall was recorded in all states and territories, although there was little to no rainfall in most of Western Australia aside from the Kimberley and parts of the south coast.
  • Unseasonal warmth continued in south-eastern Australia during the week ending 28 November 2017 with maximum temperatures 6°C to 10°C above average in southern New South Wales, Victoria and Tasmania.
  • Rainfall during December 2017 is more likely to be above average in south-eastern Australia and south-eastern Queensland. Parts of southern Western Australia are more likely to have a drier than average December.
  • The rainfall outlook for December 2017 to February 2018 indicates higher chances of exceeding the median rainfall in parts of western and south-eastern Australia. There are lower chances of exceeding the median rainfall in far northern Queensland.
  • A slow moving low pressure system and upper level trough are expected to generate thunderstorms and heavy rainfall over south-eastern Australia during the next eight days. Rainfall totals between 25 and 100 millimetres are forecast across most of Victoria, New South Wales and Tasmania. Higher totals (up to 300 millimetres) are predicted in alpine areas of New South Wales and Victoria.
  • The Bureau of Meteorology has issued a number of severe weather warnings and initial flood watches associated with this significant thunderstorm and rainfall system that is evolving across southern and eastern Australia with the potential for widespread flooding in parts of Victoria and southern and central New South Wales.
  • Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) decreased during the week ending 30 November 2017 by 169 gigalitres (GL) to 15,565 GL and are at 69 per cent of total capacity.
  • Allocation prices in the southern Murray–Darling Basin remained unchanged in the week ending 30 November 2017 at $117 per ML.

Climate

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Rainfall this week

During the week ending 29 November 2017 rainfall was recorded in all states and territories, although there was little to no rainfall in most of Western Australia aside from the Kimberley and parts of the south coast. Totals between 10 and 50 millimetres were observed in northern and eastern Queensland, central and eastern New South Wales and much of Victoria except the north-west.

Similar totals were recorded in northern, central and southern parts of South Australia and isolated areas of southern Western Australia. Rainfall totals between 50 and 100 millimetres were recorded in the Kimberley in Western Australia, northern and eastern parts of the Northern Territory, northern Queensland and scattered areas across south-eastern Australia. Totals exceeding 100 millimetres were observed in parts of the Top End in the Northern Territory including the highest recorded weekly total (179 millimetres) at Snowdrop Creek, north-east of Katherine.

Rainfall - week ending 29 November 2017

Map showing weekly rainfall totals in Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2017, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 29/11/2017

Note: The rainfall analyses and associated maps utilise data contained in the Bureau of Meteorology climate database, the Australian Data Archive for Meteorology (ADAM). The analyses are initially produced automatically from real-time data with limited quality control. They are intended to provide a general overview of rainfall across Australia as quickly as possible after the observations are received. For further information go to Weekly Rainfall Update.

Temperature anomalies this week

Unseasonal warmth continued in south-eastern Australia during the week ending 28 November 2017. Maximum temperatures were 6°C to 10°C above average in southern New South Wales, Victoria and Tasmania. Melbourne and Hobart set new November records with maximum temperatures above 28°C and 26°C for seven and six days respectively. Elsewhere, maximum temperatures were 2°C to 4°C above average in central and northern New South Wales, southern Queensland and across much of Western Australia. Minimum temperatures followed a similar pattern; 4°C to 8°C above average in south-eastern Australia and 2°C to 4°C above average in parts of Western Australia, South Australia and southern Queensland.

Maximum temperature anomalies - week ending 28 November 2017

Map showing maximum temperature anomalies in Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2017, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 28/11/2017

Minimum temperature anomalies - week ending 28 November 2017

Map showing minimum temperature anomalies in Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description.] 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2017, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 28/11/2017

Note: Spatial temperature analyses are based on historical weekly temperature data provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. These temperature anomaly maps show the departure of the maximum and minimum temperatures from their long-term averages. Temperature anomalies are calculated using high-resolution gridded datasets from 1911 onwards. For further information go to Daily maximum temperature for Australia.

National Climate Outlook

The rainfall and temperature outlooks presented below show the likelihood, represented as a percentage, of experiencing wetter or drier (and warmer or cooler) than median climatic conditions for the given outlook periods. Climate outlooks are generated by the Predictive Climate Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA), a dynamical (physics-based) climate model developed by the Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric research division.

For further information, go to About the outlooks

The Bureau of Meteorology’s ENSO Outlook is at La Niña ALERT, as sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean approach La Niña thresholds. While most international models indicate a weak La Niña event, the majority of models suggest that the typical warming of the western Pacific and eastern Indian Ocean is not likely to occur. The combination of ocean patterns and a weak La Niña means that Australia does not have significantly increased chances of a wetter and cooler summer.

The wetter signal in December across south-eastern Australia is the result of a positive Southern Annular Mode (SAM) phase, which draws tropical air southwards and increases onshore flow. Positive SAM phases are more likely to occur with La Niña.

Rainfall during December 2017 is more likely to be above average in south-eastern Australia and southern Queensland. Parts of southern Western Australia are more likely to have a drier than average December. The remainder of Australia has roughly equal chances of a wetter or drier than average December (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 30 November 2017).

Chance of exceeding the median rainfall December 2017

Map showing chance of exceeding the median rainfall. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

The rainfall outlook for December 2017 to February 2018 indicates higher chances of exceeding the median rainfall in parts of western and south-eastern Australia. There are lower chances of exceeding the median rainfall in far northern Queensland. The remainder of the country has roughly equal chances of above or below average rainfall during this period (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 30 November 2017).

Chance of exceeding the median rainfall December 2017 to February 2018

Map showing chance of exceeding the median rainfall. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description 

The temperature outlook for December 2017 to February 2018 indicates that there are higher chances of above average maximum and minimum temperatures in parts of southern, central and far northern Australia. Chances of warmer than average temperatures are close to 50 per cent for the rest of the country (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 30 November 2017).

Chance of exceeding the median maximum temperature December 2017 to February 2018

Map showing chance of exceeding the median maximum temperature. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

The temperature outlook for December 2017 to February 2018 indicates that there are higher chances of above average maximum and minimum temperatures in parts of southern, central and far northern Australia. Chances of warmer than average temperatures are close to 50 per cent for the rest of the country (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 30 November 2017).

Chance of exceeding the median minimum temperature November 2017 to January 2018

Map showing chance of exceeding the median minimum temperature. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

Rainfall forecast for the next 8 days

A slow moving low pressure system and upper level trough are expected to generate thunderstorms and heavy rainfall over south-eastern Australia during the next eight days. Rainfall totals between 25 and 100 millimetres are forecast across most of Victoria, New South Wales and Tasmania. Higher totals (up to 300 millimetres) are predicted in alpine areas of New South Wales and Victoria. Rainfall totals between 25 and 100 millimetres are also forecast across much of eastern and northern Queensland, northern Western Australia and northern parts of the Northern Territory.

The Bureau of Meteorology has issued a number of severe weather warnings and initial flood watches associated with this significant thunderstorm and rainfall system that is evolving across southern and eastern Australia with the potential for widespread flooding in parts of Victoria and southern and central New South Wales.

This rainfall forecast is produced from computer models. As it contains no input from weather forecasters, it is important to check local forecasts and warnings issued by the Bureau of Meteorology.

Total forecast rainfall (mm) for the period 30 November to 7 December 2017

Map of the total forecast rainfall for the next 8 days. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

Source: ©Commonwealth of Australia 2017, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 30/11/2017

Water

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Water availability

Water storage levels in the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) decreased during the week ending 30 November 2017 by 169 gigalitres (GL) to 15,565 GL and are at 69 per cent of total capacity. This is 17 percentage points or 3,854 GL less than at the same time last year.

Visit the interactive Tableau data dashboard

Water storages in the Murray-Darling Basin (NSW, Victoria and Queensland)

Line graph showing water storages in the Murray–Darling Basin (NSW, Victoria and Queensland) from 2001 to 2017, measured as a percentage of the total storage of 22,598 gigalitres. 

Information on water available in dams used for irrigation the Murray–Darling Basin from 1 January 2001 to 30 November 2017 is shown above. The top horizontal (short dash) line indicates the storage level during a similar time last year. The bottom horizontal (long dash) line indicates the amount of ‘dead’ or unusable storage.

Water allocations

On 24 November 2017 NSW Department of Primary Industries - Water announced allocation increases of:

  • 3.6% for NSW Border Rivers GSB to 14.7%
Water allocations in the Murray–Darling Basin (NSW, Victoria and South Australia)
 Allocations at

30 November 2017

15 November 2017

New South WalesGeneral securityHigh securityGeneral securityHigh security
NSW Murray

35%

97%

35%

97%

NSW Murrumbidgee

33%

95%

33%

95%

NSW Lower Darling

100%

100%

100%

100%

NSW Macquarie and Cudgegong

38%

100%

38%

100%

NSW Hunter

100%

100%

100%

100%

NSW Lachlan

2%

100%

2%

100%

NSW Lower Namoi

7%

100%

7%

100%

NSW Upper Namoi

100%

100%

100%

100%

NSW Gwydir

16%

100%

16%

100%

NSW Border Rivers

100%(a)/14.7%(b)

100%

100%(a)/11.1%(b)

100%

NSW Peel

100%

100%

100%

100%

VictoriaLow reliabilityHigh reliabilityLow reliabilityHigh reliability
Victoria Murray

0%

100%

0%

100%

Victoria Goulburn

0%

94%

0%

94%

Victoria Campaspe

33%

100%

33%

100%

Victoria Loddon

0%

94%

0%

94%

Victoria Bullarook

100%

100%

100%

100%

Victoria Broken

20%

100%

20%

100%

South Australia Class 3a/3b Class 3a/3b
South Australia Murray

 

100%

 

100%

Select water allocation percentages in the southern Murray-Darling Basin

 

 

 

 

Water markets

Allocation prices in the southern Murray-Darling Basin remained unchanged in the week ending 30 November 2017 at $117 per ML. This contrasts with an average price of $138 in October across the whole southern MDB, and $78 during the same time last year.

Allocation trade activity in the southern Murray–Darling Basin

Allocation trade activity in the southern Murray-Darling Basin. The trades shown reflect market activity and do not encompass all register trades. The price line reflects locally fitted price values for the entire southern Murray-Darling Basin.  

The trades shown reflect estimated market activity and do not encompass all register trades. The price line reflects locally fitted price values for the entire southern Murray–Darling Basin. Data shown is current until 30 November 2017. Trade activity is shown as colour density.

Allocation trade prices, southern Murray–Darling Basin trade zones

 

Southern MDB

Victoria Goulburn

SA Murray

NSW Murrumbidgee

Victoria Murray

NSW Murray

Current week: 24/11/17 - 30/11/17

$116.84

$88.58

$142.16

$134.73

$129.96

$128.31

Last week: 17/11/17 - 23/11/17

$117.17

$92.33

$131.67

$149.08

$125.73

$133.55

October 2017

$137.89

$114.28

$176.71

$136.59

$143.89

$148.24

October 2016

$77.61

$88.96

$76.51

$50.38

$103.94

$76.94

Commodities

Current indicators – 30 November 2017

IndicatorWeek endedUnitLatest pricePrice week priorWeekly changePrice 12 months priorYear on year changeChart

Selected world indicator prices

Australian Dollar – AUD/USD Exchange Rate29-NovUS$/A$0.760.760%0.743%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Wheat – US no. 2 hard red winter wheat, fob Gulf28-NovUS$/t218219<1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.19015%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Coarse Grains – US no. 2 yellow corn, fob Gulf22-NovUS$/t1501481%151<1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Canola – Rapeseed, Europe, fob Hamburga28-NovUS$/t434437<1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.4281%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Cotton – Cotlook 'A' Index29-NovUSc/lb82.080.32%80.12%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Sugar – Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, no.11 contract29-NovUSc/lb15.215.20%19.8-23%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Wool – Eastern Market Indicator23-NovAc/kg clean1,6691,669<1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.1,36322%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Wool – Western Market Indicator24-NovAc/kg clean1,7171,717<1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.1,38224%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart

Selected domestic crop indicator prices

Milling Wheat – ASW1, track quote, Port Adelaide, SA28-NovA$/t2402343%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.20617%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Feed Wheat – General purpose, Sydney, NSW29-NovA$/t2582532%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.2398%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Feed Barley – Sydney, NSW29-NovA$/t2542511%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.18637%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Canola – Portland, Vic.27-NovA$/t5255443%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.532-1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Grain Sorghum – Sydney, NSW29-NovA$/t3193093%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.24331%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart

Selected domestic livestock indicator prices

Beef – Eastern Young Cattle Indicator30-NovAc/kg cwt580577<1%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.645-10%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Mutton – Mutton indicator (18-24 kg fat score 2-3), Vic30-NovAc/kg cwt474470<1%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.42312%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Lamb – Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator23-NovAc/kg cwt6176003%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.53116%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Pig – Eastern Seaboard (60.1-75 kg), average of buyers & sellers17-NovAc/kg cwt2762760%378-27%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Goat – Eastern States (12.1-16 kg)27-NovAc/kg cwt490486<1%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.611-20%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Live cattle – Light steers ex Darwin to Indonesia25-NovAc/kg lwt3303203%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.360-8%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Live sheep – Live wether (Muchea WA saleyard) to Middle East27-Nov$/head113112<1%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.9124%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart

Global Dairy Trade weighted average pricesa

Dairy – Whole milk powder21-NovUS$/t2,7782,852-3%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.3,423-19%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Dairy – Skim milk powder21-NovUS$/t1,7011,818-6%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.2,562-34%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Dairy – Cheddar cheese21-NovUS$/t3,8314,001-4%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.3,6974%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Dairy – Anhydrous milk fat21-NovUS$/t6,8876,894<1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.5,34829%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart

a Global Dairy Trade prices are updated twice monthly on the first and third Tuesday of each month.

Movements in selected fruit and vegetable prices
Data attribution

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Last reviewed:
30 Nov 2017