Weekly update - 31 May 2018

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Weekly Australian Climate,
Water and Agricultural Update

Key issues

  • During the week ending 30 May 2018 little to no rainfall was recorded across much of mainland Australia, with falls being restricted to the west of Western Australia, eastern Queensland and the south-eastern corner of the country.
  • Rainfall across the Western Australian grainsbelt this week is likely to be sufficient to allow the germination and establishment of most of the state’s dry-sown winter crop, and has provided a welcome boost for crops that germinated on earlier falls. More rain is expected the over coming days—if they eventuate as forecast, this is likely to further consolidate this key production state’s winter crop prospects.
  • For the week ending 29 May 2018 maximum temperatures were 2°C to 4°C above average through large areas of central and eastern Australia. Minimum temperatures were 2°C to 6°C below average across scattered areas of eastern and northern Australia. Maximum and minimum temperatures were generally close to average for the rest of Australia.
  • According to the latest National Climate Outlook released by the Bureau of Meteorology, a drier than average June is more likely for most of New South Wales, South Australia, northern Victoria, and in parts of Western Australia, southern Queensland and the Northern Territory.
  • The rainfall outlook for June to August indicates that a drier than average winter is more likely across most of New South Wales, northern Victoria, eastern South Australia, southern Queensland, southern parts of the Northern Territory, and isolated parts of western Western Australia.
  • During the next eight days, widespread rainfall is expected across the west of Western Australia. Little to no rainfall is forecast across much of the remainder of the country.
  • Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) increased during the week ending 31 May 2018 by 52 gigalitres (GL) to 11,179 GL and are at 49 per cent of total capacity. This is 19 percentage points or 4,181 GL less than at the same time last year.
  • Allocation prices in the southern Murray–Darling Basin remained around the same level in the week ending 31 May 2018 at $155 per ML.

Climate

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Rainfall this week

During the week ending 30 May 2018 little to no rainfall was recorded across much of mainland Australia, with falls being restricted to the west of Western Australia, eastern Queensland and the south-eastern corner of the country. Rainfall totals of between 10 and 50 millimetres were recorded across parts of western and central Victoria, north-western Tasmania, isolated areas of eastern Queensland, eastern New South Wales, and southern and central South Australia. Similar rainfall totals were recorded across much of the west of Western Australia. Higher totals of between 50 and 150 millimetres were recorded across the far south-west of Western Australia and parts of northern Tasmania. The highest recorded weekly total was 140 millimetres at Bickley to the east of Perth.

Rainfall across the Western Australian grainsbelt this week is likely to be sufficient to allow the germination and establishment of most of the state’s dry-sown winter crop, and has provided a welcome boost for crops which germinated on earlier falls. More rain is expected the over coming days—if they eventuate as forecast, this is likely to further consolidate this key production state’s winter crop prospects.

Rainfall - week ending 30 May 2018

Map showing weekly rainfall totals in Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2018, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 30/05/2018

Note: The rainfall analyses and associated maps utilise data contained in the Bureau of Meteorology climate database, the Australian Data Archive for Meteorology (ADAM). The analyses are initially produced automatically from real-time data with limited quality control. They are intended to provide a general overview of rainfall across Australia as quickly as possible after the observations are received. For further information go to Weekly Rainfall Update.

Temperature anomalies this week

For the week ending 29 May 2018, maximum temperatures were 2°C to 4°C above average through large areas of central and eastern Australia. Maximum temperatures were generally close to average for the remainder of the country. Minimum temperatures were 2°C to 6°C below average across scattered areas of eastern and northern Australia, with generally average minimum temperatures for the rest of Australia.

Maximum temperature anomalies for the week ending 29 May 2018

Map showing maximum temperature anomalies in Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2018, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 29/05/2018

Minimum temperature anomalies for the week ending 29 May 2018

Map showing minimum temperature anomalies in Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2018, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 29/05/2018

Note: Spatial temperature analyses are based on historical weekly temperature data provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. These temperature anomaly maps show the departure of the maximum and minimum temperatures from the average over the 1961 to 1990 reference period. For further information go to Daily maximum temperatures for Australia

National Climate Outlook

The rainfall and temperature outlooks presented below show the likelihood, represented as a percentage, of experiencing wetter or drier (and warmer or cooler) than median climatic conditions for the given outlook periods. Climate outlooks are generated by the Predictive Climate Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA), a dynamical (physics-based) climate model developed by the Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric research division.

For further information, go to About the climate outlooks

The current outlook reflects the neutral state of major climate drivers, with no strong shift towards wetter or drier conditions across most of Australia. When broadscale drivers are neutral, the climate is often influenced by more local effects, such as the ocean temperatures immediately surrounding the continent. Below average pressure over the Tasman Sea, associated with warmer than average ocean temperatures, are likely to weaken the westerlies that bring rain systems to southeast Australia.

A drier than average June is more likely for most of New South Wales, South Australia, northern Victoria, and in parts of Western Australia, southern Queensland and the Northern Territory. Parts of eastern Tasmania have higher chances of exceeding the median rainfall. Elsewhere, there are roughly equal chances of above or below average rainfall during June (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 31 May 2018).

Chance of exceeding the median rainfall June 2018

 

The rainfall outlook for June to August indicates that a drier than average winter is more likely across most of New South Wales, northern Victoria, eastern South Australia, southern Queensland, southern parts of the Northern Territory, and isolated parts of western Western Australia. Rainfall is more likely to be above the median in eastern parts of Tasmania. For the rest of Australia there is no strong tendency towards either wetter or drier than average conditions (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 31 May2018).

Chance of exceeding the median rainfall June to August 2018

 

The maximum temperature outlook for June to August 2018 indicates above average temperatures for much of southern and south-eastern of Australia. Maximum temperatures are more likely to be above average in New South Wales, Victoria, Tasmania, far southern Queensland and south-eastern South Australia. Minimum temperatures are more likely to be above average in central South Australia, southern Western Australia, eastern New South Wales, southern and eastern Victoria, and Tasmania (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 31 May 2018).

Chance of exceeding the median maximum temperature June to August 2018

 

Chance of exceeding the median minimum temperature June to August 2018

 

Rainfall forecast for the next 8 days

During the next eight days, widespread rainfall is expected across the west of Western Australia. Little to no rainfall is forecast across much of the remainder of the country. Totals between 10 and 50 millimetres are forecast for much of the west of Western Australia and isolated areas of coastal eastern Australia. Heavier falls of between 50 and 200 millimetres are forecast for the far south-west and north-west of Western Australia.

This rainfall forecast is produced from computer models. As it contains no input from weather forecasters, it is important to check local forecasts and warnings issued by the Bureau of Meteorology.

Total forecast rainfall (mm) for the period 31 May to 7 June 2018

Map of the total forecast rainfall for the next 8 days. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2018, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 31/05/2018

Water

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Water availability

Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) increased during the week ending 31 May 2018 by 52 gigalitres (GL) to 11,171 GL and are at 49 per cent of total capacity. This is 19 percentage points or 4,181 GL less than at the same time last year.

Visit the interactive Tableau data dashboard

Water storages in the Murray-Darling Basin (NSW, Victoria and Queensland)

Line graph showing water storages in the Murray–Darling Basin (NSW, Victoria and Queensland) from 2001 to 2018, measured as a percentage of the total storage of 22,598 gigalitres. 

Information on water available in dams used for irrigation the Murray–Darling Basin from 1 January 2001 to 31 May 2018 is shown above. The top horizontal (short dash) line indicates the storage level during a similar time last year. The bottom horizontal (long dash) line indicates the amount of ‘dead’ or unusable storage.

Water allocations

The current water allocations for the 2017–18 water trading season for licence holders in New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia water systems are summarised in the following table and charts.

Water allocations in the Murray–Darling Basin (NSW, Victoria and South Australia)

Allocations at

31 May 2018

24 May 2018

New South Wales

General security

High security

General security

High security

NSW Murray

51%

97%

51%

97%

NSW Murrumbidgee

45%

95%

45%

95%

NSW Lower Darling

100%

100%

100%

100%

NSW Macquarie and Cudgegong

38%

100%

38%

100%

NSW Hunter

100%

100%

100%

100%

NSW Lachlan

2%

100%

2%

100%

NSW Lower Namoi

7%

100%

7%

100%

NSW Upper Namoi

100%

100%

100%

100%

NSW Gwydir

18%

100%

18%

100%

NSW Border Rivers

100%(a)/19.62%(b)

100%

100%(a)/19.62%(b)

100%

NSW Peel

100%

100%

100%

100%

Victoria

Low reliability

High reliability

Low reliability

High reliability

Victoria Murray

0%

100%

0%

100%

Victoria Goulburn

0%

100%

0%

100%

Victoria Campaspe

59%

100%

59%

100%

Victoria Loddon

0%

100%

0%

100%

Victoria Bullarook

100%

100%

100%

100%

Victoria Broken

100%

100%

100%

100%

South Australia

 

Class 3a/3b

 

Class 3a/3b

South Australia Murray

 

100%

 

100%

Select water allocation percentages in the southern Murray-Darling Basin

 

 

 

 

Water markets

Allocation prices in the southern Murray-Darling Basin remained around the same level in the week ending 31 May 2018 at $155 per ML. This is roughly unchanged from the same time last week. This contrasts with an average price of $134 in April across the whole southern MDB, and $32 during the same month last year.

Allocation trade activity in the southern Murray–Darling Basin

Allocation trade activity in the southern Murray-Darling Basin. The trades shown reflect market activity and do not encompass all register trades. The price line reflects locally fitted price values for the entire southern Murray-Darling Basin.  

The trades shown reflect estimated market activity and do not encompass all register trades. The price line reflects locally fitted price values for the entire southern Murray–Darling Basin. Data shown is current until 31 May 2018. Trade activity is shown as colour density.

Allocation trade prices, southern Murray–Darling Basin trade zones

 

Southern MDB

Victoria Goulburn

SA Murray

NSW Murrumbidgee

Victoria Murray

NSW Murray

Current week: 25/05/18 - 31/05/18

$154.9

$152.99

$149.76

$164.95

$150.75

$149.35

Last week: 18/05/18 - 24/05/18

$154.50

$144.89

$147.23

$175.71

$146.97

$146.87

Apr-18

$133.55

$124.67

$131.26

$157.69

$136.66

$134.29

Apr-17

$31.95

$42.99

$42.03

$10.72

$42.52

$35.65

Commodities

Current indicators – 31 May 2018

IndicatorWeek endedUnitLatest pricePrice week priorWeekly changePrice 12 months priorYear on year changeChart

Selected world indicator prices

Australian Dollar – AUD/USD Exchange Rate30-MayUS$/A$0.750.750%0.750% chart
Wheat – US no. 2 hard red winter wheat, fob Gulf29-MayUS$/t2562464%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.20227%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Coarse Grains – US no. 2 yellow corn, fob Gulf30-MayUS$/t179180<1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.15913%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Canola – Rapeseed, Europe, fob Hamburg29-MayUS$/t410407<1%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.424-3%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Cotton – Cotlook 'A' Index30-MayUSc/lb96.494.22%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.87.211%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Sugar – Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, no.11 contract30-MayUSc/lb12.511.86%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.15.2-18%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Wool – Eastern Market Indicator24-MayAc/kg clean1,9831,9432%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.1,49533%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Wool – Western Market Indicator25-MayAc/kg clean2,1192,0802%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.1,52039%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart

Selected domestic crop indicator prices

Milling Wheat – ASW1, track quote, Port Adelaide, SA29-MayA$/t2902832%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.19846%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Feed Wheat – General purpose, Sydney, NSW29-MayA$/t375376<1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.23957%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Feed Barley – Sydney, NSW29-MayA$/t3503500%21464%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Canola – Portland, Vic.28-MayA$/t5245152%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.5103%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Grain Sorghum – Sydney, NSW29-MayA$/t3653650%27234%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart

Selected domestic livestock indicator prices

Beef – Eastern Young Cattle Indicator24-MayAc/kg cwt485491-1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.652-26%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Mutton – Mutton indicator (18–24 kg fat score 2–3), Vic25-MayAc/kg cwt479486-1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.550-13%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Lamb – Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator24-MayAc/kg cwt609617-1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.663-8%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Pig – Eastern Seaboard (60.1–75 kg), average of buyers & sellers18-MayAc/kg cwt2602600%297-12%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Goat – Eastern States (12.1–16 kg)28-MayAc/kg cwt5084845%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.656-23%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Live cattle – Light steers ex Darwin to Indonesia26-MayAc/kg lwt2602600%320-19%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Live sheep – Live wether (Muchea WA saleyard) to Middle East14-May$/head95--116-18%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart

Global Dairy Trade (GDT) weighted average pricesa

Dairy – Whole milk powder15-MayUS$/t3,2263,231<1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points.3,312-3%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Dairy – Skim milk powder15-MayUS$/t2,0471,9992%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.1,9982%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Dairy – Cheddar cheese15-MayUS$/t4,2054,0244%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.3,72613%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Dairy – Anhydrous milk fat15-MayUS$/t6,3546,0325%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points.6,631-4%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart

a Global Dairy Trade prices are updated twice monthly on the first and third Tuesday of each month.

Movements in selected fruit and vegetable prices
Data attribution

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Last reviewed:
31 May 2018