Australian Crop Report: June edition
Seasonal conditions in New South Wales during autumn were mixed. There was below average rainfall in central and north-eastern cropping regions and average rainfall in parts of the northwest cropping regions and most southern cropping regions. The majority of planting intentions were realised in southern cropping regions.
Winter rainfall is likely to be below average in New South Wales, according to the latest three-month rainfall outlook (June to August) issued by the Bureau of Meteorology on 30 May 2019.
The impact of below average winter rainfall on crop prospects will differ across regions as it depends on the timing and quantity of rainfall and the amount of soil moisture present at the end of autumn. There is a significant chance that most areas unlikely to exceed median winter rainfall will receive rainfall totals sufficient to sustain crops that established successfully through until spring. Crops in regions with average to above average levels of soil moisture will likely be in a good position at the beginning of spring. However, crop prospects in regions with low to very low levels of soil moisture will likely deteriorate. This means crop prospects are presently strongest in southern cropping regions.
Area planted to winter crops in New South Wales is forecast at 4.1 million hectares. Although this is an increase from the drought affected 2018–19 area it will still be 24% below the 10 year average to 2018–19. This reflects continued drier than average conditions in some major cropping regions. Total winter crop production is forecast to rise to 7. 2 million tonnes in 2019–20, more than double the previous season but 30% below the 10 year average to 2018–19.
Area planted to
wheat is forecast to increase by 39% in 2019–20 to 2.5 million hectares. Although wheat may be planted until the end of June in parts of New South Wales, rainfall in the next few weeks will be needed for any further planting to take place. Prospects for wheat crops are currently better in southern New South Wales than in central and northern areas. Production is forecast to be 4.8 million tonnes.
Area planted to
barley is forecast to increase by 25% in 2019–20 to 750,000 hectares. Production is forecast to more than double to 1.5 million tonnes, reflecting an increase in area planted and a forecast increase in the average yield from the poor yielding 2018–19 barley crop.
Area planted to canola is forecast to be 400,000 hectares in 2019–20 with the majority in southern New South Wales, reflecting more favourable seasonal conditions during autumn. Average yields are forecast to increase from the very low yields of the previous season and production is forecast to rise to 520,000 tonnes.
Table 5 Winter crop forecasts, New South Wales, 2019−20
|Wheat ||2,500 ||1.90 ||4,750 ||39 ||164 |
|Barley ||750 ||1.95 ||1,463 ||25 ||132 |
|Canola ||400 ||1.30 ||520 ||111 ||242 |
Note: Yields are based on area planted. Area based on planted crop that is harvested, fed off or failed.
Summer crop production in New South Wales is estimated to have fallen in 2018–19 by more than half to just over 1 million tonnes.
Grain sorghum production is estimated to have been 275,000 tonnes in 2018–19, slightly below the very low level in 2017–18.
Cotton production is estimated to have declined by 56% in 2018–19 to 321,000 tonnes of lint and around 454,000 tonnes of cottonseed.
Rice production is estimated to have fallen significantly in 2018–19 to around 52,000 tonnes reflecting low water allocations in the Murray Valley and the Murrumbidgee Irrigation Area.
Table 6 Summer crop estimates, New South Wales, 2018−19
|Grain sorghum ||110 ||2.50 ||275 ||2 ||–1 |
|Cotton lint ||227 ||1.42 ||321 ||–35 ||–56 |
|Cottonseed ||227 ||2.00 ||454 ||–35 ||–56 |
|Rice ||5 ||10.37 ||52 ||–92 ||–92 |
Note: Yields are based on area planted, except cotton which is based on area harvested. Area based on planted crop that is harvested, fed off or failed.