Australian Crop Report: June edition
There was above average rainfall in many cropping regions in Victoria during May. This rainfall replenished soil moisture levels depleted by unfavourable seasonal conditions during March and April. However, there was insufficient rainfall in parts of the northern Mallee in May to germinate dry sown crops. Lower layer soil moisture levels in May were above average in central cropping regions and mostly average in other cropping regions. The notable exception is parts of the Mallee where it is below average.
Winter rainfall is likely to be below average in Victoria, according to the latest three-month rainfall outlook (June to August) issued by the Bureau of Meteorology on 30 May 2019. There is a significant chance that most areas unlikely to exceed median rainfall will receive rainfall totals sufficient to sustain crops that established successfully through until spring 2019, especially in regions with average to above average levels of lower layer soil moisture in May.
Area planted to winter crops in Victoria is forecast to increase by 13%, compared to the drought affected season in 2018–19, to around 3.3 million hectares. Winter crop production in 2019–20 is forecast to be around 6.2 million tonnes, similar to the average production in the 10 years to 2018–19.
Area planted to
wheat is forecast to rise by 11% in 2019–20 to around 1.6 million hectares. Wheat production is forecast to increase by 64% to 3.2 million tonnes.
Area planted to
barley is forecast to increase by 10% to 850,000 hectares, which largely reflects expected higher returns relative to production alternatives, particularly canola. Production is forecast to increase by 64% to 1.8 million tonnes.
Area planted to canola is forecast to increase by 33% to 400,000 hectares, largely reflecting significant area taken out of oilseed production and cut for hay in 2018–19. Canola production is forecast to increase by 83% to 550,000 tonnes.
Table 9 Winter crop forecasts, Victoria, 2019–20
|Wheat||1,550 ||2.06 ||3,200 ||11 ||64 |
|Barley||850 ||2.12 ||1,800 ||10 ||64 |
|Canola||400 ||1.38 ||550 ||33 ||83 |
Note: Yields are based on area planted. Area based on planted crop that is harvested, fed off or failed.