Agricultural commodities: September quarter 2018

The September edition of Agricultural commodities contains ABARES latest outlook for Australia's key agricultural commodities in 2018-19. This release is an update to the outlook released in March 2018.

Agricultural overview

Australian farm production is forecast to be relatively unchanged, and remain above the 10-year average of $56 billion.

Economic overview

World growth to be 3.9% in 2018 and 2019 despite increased trade tensions and political uncertainty.

Seasonal conditions

Drought conditions are affecting crop and pasture production in eastern Australia. In the west, winter rain has boosted production.

Wheat

Adverse seasonal conditions to lower global production and drive wheat prices higher.

Coarse grains

Barley prices to increase due to falling world coarse grain stocks.

Oilseeds

Canola prices to rise, reflecting an increase in Chinese imports and a fall in exportable supplies.

Cotton

Record world cotton demand to increase prices and lower stocks.

Sugar

Sugar prices to fall to a 17-year low, driven by record world supplies.

Horticulture

Horticultural exports to increase, reflecting rising demand from Asia for fresh produce.

Beef and veal

Australian cattle prices to fall due to higher production and export market competition.

Sheep meat

Lamb prices to rise, driven by strong export demand.

Wool

Declines in Australian wool production and sustained global demand to support high prices.

Dairy

Milk prices to rise due to a falling Australian dollar and increased competition for milk.

Pig meat

Reduced production and sustained demand to support prices.

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Document	Pages	File size
Agricultural commodities – September 2018 PDF	55	6 MB
Forecast data – September 2018 XLS	40	3.2 MB
Statistical tables – September 2018 XLS	40	3.2 MB
Infographics – September 2018 PDF	3	500 KB

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