Outlook 2015: Value of farm commodity production on the rise
3 March 2015
The gross value of farm production is forecast to increase by 5.3 per cent to around $54.4 billion next financial year.
ABARES Executive Director, Karen Schneider, said that the values of both livestock and crop production were forecast to rise.
“The gross value of livestock production is forecast to increase by around 5.6 per cent to $25.9 billion in 2015–16, following a forecast increase of 5.9 per cent in 2014–15,” Ms Schneider said.
“The forecast increase in livestock production value mainly reflects the effect of higher saleyard and farmgate prices, which more than offset expected lower slaughter as a result of assumed herd and flock rebuilding.
“In 2015–16, the gross value of crop production is forecast to increase by 5.1 per cent to $28.5 billion, after a forecast decrease of 9.6 per cent in 2013–14.
Ms Schneider said the expected rise in the value of farm production next financial year was likely to continue in the medium term.
“In 2019–20, the gross value of Australian farm production is projected to be around $55.3 billion in 2014-15 dollars, around 9 per cent higher than the five year average to 2013-14,” Ms Schneider said.
A modest rise in Australian farm commodity export earnings is forecast in 2015–16, with total exports of about $40.5 billion compared with a forecast $40.3 billion in 2014–15.
“Agricultural commodities for which export earnings are forecast to rise in 2015–16 include wheat (up by 12 per cent), sugar (11 per cent), canola (10 per cent), dairy products (8 per cent) and beef and veal (2 per cent),” Ms Schneider said.
“However these forecast increases are expected to be largely offset by forecast falls in export earnings for mutton (39 per cent), cotton (35 per cent), barley (11 per cent) and lamb (8 per cent).
“By 2019–20, the value of farm exports is projected to be around $41.2 billion in 2014–15 dollars, also 9 per cent higher than the average over the five years to 2013–14.”
The outlook for agricultural commodities is based on the assumption of average seasonal conditions and that world economic activity will increase by 3.3 per cent in 2015, the same growth rate as in 2014.
The figures were released today in the March issue of Agricultural Commodities at the ABARES Outlook conference in Canberra.
In addition to the commodity outlook to 2019–20, the March issue contains analysis of the performance of broadacre and dairy farms; profitability and productivity in Australia’s beef industry; and key agricultural outcomes of recent free trade agreements.The full report is available on the ABARES website.