Varied conditions and modest prospects for winter crops
10 September 2019
ABARES’s latest crop report reveals mixed prospects for Australia’s winter crop, according to ABARES acting Executive Director Peter Gooday.
“Winter crop production is forecast to rise by 11 percent in 2019–20 to 33.9 million tonnes but falls short of the 10-year average to 2018-19 by 16 percent,” Mr Gooday said.
“Wheat and canola production is forecast to increase 10 and 6 percent respectively, but both are expected to fall significantly below the 10-year average to 2018-19.
“Barley production is forecast to increase by 14 percent to around 9.5 million tonnes which brings it 6 percent above the 10-year average to 2018‑19.
“Crop production deteriorated in regions across New South Wales and Queensland, due to unfavourable growing conditions over winter. Crop production in these states is forecast to be very much below average.
“On the other hand, crops in Victoria were in good to very good condition at the beginning of spring thanks to generally favourable growing conditions over winter.
“Crops in Western Australia received timely winter rainfall to help boost yield prospects to around average for most crops after a late break to the season.
“South Australia received sufficient winter rainfall in most major growing regions, but the same can’t be said for northern cropping regions with their prospects generally below average.
“Early spring rainfall will be important to final crop outcomes.”
According to the latest seasonal outlook issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, September rainfall is likely to be above average in Western Australia and below average in most other cropping regions. October rainfall is likely to be below average in most cropping regions.
“If realised, above average September rainfall in Western Australia would give cereal crops in the state a strong chance of achieving average to above average yields,” Mr Gooday said.
Mr Gooday said the seasonal conditions outlook for early spring in eastern Australia is likely to constrain crop prospects in southern New South Wales, and northern cropping regions in Victoria and South Australia.
However, there’s a good chance that most cropping regions in southern Victoria, and central and southern South Australia will still achieve average yields.
Mr Gooday said outlook for summer crops is unfavourable due to poor seasonal conditions in northern New South Wales and Queensland.
“Area planted to summer crops is forecast to fall by 28 percent in 2019–20 to around 758,000 hectares—production of grain sorghum, cotton and rice are all forecast to fall,” Mr Gooday said.
The September 2019 Australian crop report is now available.