Outlook 2021 - Program and presentations

OUTLOOK 2021 ~ Growing Australian agriculture in an uncertain world

Commencing 10.00am AEDT

Opening address
The Hon David Littleproud MP
Minister for Agriculture, Drought and Emergency Management

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TUESDAY 2 MARCH 2021​ ​

10.00am 11.00am (AEDT)

1.30pm 2.30pm (AEDT)

3.00pm 4.00pm (AEDT)

Global and national context

Video and transcript

Agriculture in focus

Video and transcript

Live panel: Improving water market outcomes in the southern Murray-Darling Basin

Video and transcript

A look at global and domestic conditions and the trends that will be shaping agriculture and the economy.

What is the Outlook for the world and Australian economy in 2021 and beyond? Will the economy face lower growth, higher unemployment and a threat of rising inflation? Could government policy lead to an infrastructure boom that sparks the next commodity super cycle? This session will set the scene for macro drivers and trends in 2021 and beyond and how these will play out for our domestic agricultural industries.

The lasting changes ‘in store’ following COVID-19: with a focus on consumers, disrupted supply chains and farm policy. With the COVID-19 pandemic over a year old, what are some of the lasting issues for Agriculture? How did supply chains adapt to disruptions and what does this mean for the future of logistics? Has COVID-19 resulted in a greater awareness of food supply chains? What will be the COVID-19 legacy on policy? Ultimately, what does this mean for 2021 and how has it influenced farm performance?

This live panel discussion will explore the existing benefits of water markets in the southern Murray-Darling Basin, and options for water market reform that could enable the market to better respond to emerging issues such as deliverability risk and increasingly-binding inter-valley trade constraints. Drawing on ABARES research and the recently concluded ACCC Inquiry, this session will cover reform options that could reduce the complexity of water sharing plans and improve inter-regional water trade outcomes.

CHAIR: Nikolai Beilharz, ABC

CHAIR: Sarina Locke, ABC

CHAIR: Warwick Long, ABC

Sarah Hunter
BIS Oxford Economics Australia
Navigating the economic recovery from COVID

Presentation PDF [699 KB]

Andrew Metcalfe AO
Department of Agriculture, Water and the Environment
Opening comments

The Hon Keith Pitt MP
Minister for Resources, Water and Northern Australia
Opening comments

Jared Greenville
ABARES
ABARES agricultural outlook

Presentation PDF [792 KB]

Peter Gooday
ABARES
Farm incomes: rebound from drought

Presentation PDF [1.2 MB]

David Galeano
ABARES
The future of water markets in the southern Murray-Darling Basin

Presentation PDF [596 KB]

Luke Chandler
John Deere Ltd Australia and New Zealand
Leaping forward through technology 

Presentation PDF [1.6 MB]

Paul Harker
Woolworths
How does the industry work together to collectively respond to changing consumer trends and buying habits 

Mick Keogh OAM
ACCC
ACCC’s Murray-Darling Basin water markets Inquiry

 

Fiona Simson
National Farmers’ Federation
Agriculture’s important role in a COVID-normal Australia

Presentation PDF [1.5 MB]

Craig Feuerherdt
H2OX
Market intermediary’s experience with water trading in the southern Basin
    Jennifer McLeod
Barragundah, Finley NSW
An irrigator’s perspective on water reform in the southern Basin

11.00am 11.30am (AEDT)

2.30pm 3.00pm (AEDT)

4.00pm 4.30pm (AEDT)

Visit ABARES and our partners at the Spotlight virtual exhibition in the Chime conference portal (access coming soon to registered delegates)

Visit ABARES and our partners at the Spotlight virtual exhibition in the Chime conference portal (access coming soon to registered delegates)

Visit ABARES and our partners at the Spotlight virtual exhibition in the Chime conference portal (access coming soon to registered delegates)

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WEDNESDAY 3 MARCH 2021 ​ ​

10.00am 11.00am (AEDT)

1.30pm 2.30pm (AEDT)

3.00pm 4.00pm (AEDT)

What the threat of deglobalisation could mean for trade

Video and transcript

Global and sustainable perspectives on the red meat sector

Video and transcript

Grains – maintaining agile value chains

Video and transcript

There has been a growing perception that governments are disengaging from narratives and policies that support liberalised trade and are moving towards policies more explicitly aimed at supporting their own populations. This was showcased in 2020, when a number of countries implemented restrictive trade policies. These policies fuelled global uncertainty about food availability, prices and food security. While most have since been dismantled, the continuing pandemic and global transport restrictions have left countries with food supply chain issues such as labour and transport shortages. The slowdown in economic activity globally, combined with the costly investments in domestic support programs, have pushed economies worldwide into recession.

This session explores how the impact of COVID-19, China’s recovery from African Swine Fever, the liquidation phase of the US cattle cycle, the rise of South American beef, and the return of favourable pasture production in Australia will all create a complex interplay on prices. This all plays out against a backdrop changing community perceptions of the Australian red meat industry, environment sustainability credentials and the rise of plant-based protein alternatives.

Over the last three years, the industries along Australia’s grains value chains have coped well with a series of pressures including drought, trade disputes and a global pandemic. This session explores the industry and market characteristics that enable these value chains to avoid or adapt to recurring and potential new disruptions.

The session will open with ABARES forecasts for grains markets, and a review of some of the economic features of Australia’s grain markets that facilitate adaptation to external pressures. Speakers will review the characteristics of Australian grain marketing that enable switching between sources and markets. A critical adaptation to retain during favourable seasons is the ability to import, and the session will review what governments and industry can do together to retain this hard-won flexibility. The session will conclude by predicting the kinds of adaptation likely to be needed as climate changes alters the supply and demand balance of importers and competitors.

CHAIR: Sarina Locke, ABC

CHAIR: Warwick Long, ABC

CHAIR: Terence Farrell, GRDC

Opening comments
The Hon Dan Tehan MP
Minister for Trade, Tourism and Investment

Chris Mornement
ABARES sets the scene
Supply and demand outlook for the red meat sector

Presentation PDF [459 KB]

Amelia Brown
ABARES sets the scene
Outlook for grains markets

Presentation PDF [596 KB]

Michael Cox
London School of Economics IDEAS
De-globalization, de-coupling or just more globalization?

Simon Quilty
Global AgriTrends
How large is China's hog herd? What are the on-going ramifications to global protein markets should China's hog rebuild be understated

Presentation PDF [1.7 MB]

James Murray
Viterra
Resilience of Australian grain markets

Marion Jansen
OECD
Global agriculture and food supply chains post-COVID

Len Steiner
Steiner Consulting Group
The South American export business

Presentation PDF [348 KB]

Craig Scheibel
Department of Agriculture, Water and the Environment

Will Martin
International Food Policy Research Institute
Why agricultural trade matters

Presentation PDF [267 KB]

Stuart Austin
Wilmot Cattle Co
Climate friendly beef production – using livestock to regenerate landscapes, reduce risk and generate cardon credits as a co-benefit

Presentation PDF [1.9 MB]

Mark Howden
Climate Change Institute, ANU
Climate change: meshing short and long-term responses

Presentation PDF [305 KB]

11.00am 11.30am (AEDT)

2.30pm 3.00pm (AEDT)

4.00pm 4.30pm (AEDT)

Visit ABARES and our partners at the Spotlight virtual exhibition in the Chime conference portal (access coming soon to registered delegates)

Visit ABARES and our partners at the Spotlight virtual exhibition in the Chime conference portal (access coming soon to registered delegates)

Visit ABARES and our partners at the Spotlight virtual exhibition in the Chime conference portal (access coming soon to registered delegates)

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THURSDAY 4 March 2021

10.00am 11.00am (AEDT)

​1.30pm 2.30pm (AEDT)

3.00pm 4.00pm (AEDT)

Horticulture and labour

Video and transcript

Fisheries and aquaculture – lessons from a pandemic

Video and transcript

Growing the plantation estate

Video and transcript

Horticulture is a vibrant part of Australian agriculture producing a range of crops for domestic and international markets. However, this sector has been hard-hit by the effects of COVID over the past year.

In this session we present ABARES latest forecast for the horticulture sector and focus on the issue of farm labour – what are the forces shaping the demand and supply of workers in this sector, what effects have lower numbers of international workers had over the past year, what changes have employers, workers and governments been making to adapt to the current circumstances, and what should be the goal for the horticulture workforce into the future?

The Covid-19 pandemic has been challenging for Australia’s seafood and aquaculture sector. China’s lockdown in early 2020 led to the immediate suspension of seafood trade for some of Australia’s most valuable seafood exports. Without regular air freight services, moving product to market has become more difficult. At home, lock downs across states caused disruption in the services sector at an unprecedented scale. This session provides an opportunity to explore how these challenges affected the sector and key learnings for the future.

After decades of substantial growth in Australia’s commercial timber plantation estate, the area of plantations has begun to decline. This session is an opportunity to explore the key barriers to a bigger and more profitable plantation sector with a panel of experts from across the public and private sectors. The discussion will focus on the direction the sector is heading, the biggest impediments to growth going forward, and the best ways to overcome them.

CHAIR: Fiona Breen, ABC

CHAIR: Fiona Breen, ABC

CHAIR: Angus Verley, ABC

Charley Xia
ABARES sets the scene
Outlook for horticultural production

Presentation PDF [525 KB]

Opening comments
Senator the Hon Jonathon Duniam

Assistant Minister for Forestry and Fisheries

Opening comments
Senator the Hon Jonathon Duniam

Assistant Minister for Forestry and Fisheries

Gavin Scurr
Piñata Farms
Sourcing a horticulture workforce across Australia in the time of COVID

Presentation PDF [7.5 MB]

Robert Curtotti
ABARES sets the scene
The path ahead for Australian fisheries and aquaculture through COVID-19 - outlook to 2025

Presentation PDF [774 KB]

Linden Whittle
ABARES
Economic potential for new plantation establishment

Presentation PDF [444 KB]

Richard Palmer
Summerfruit NZ
A New Zealand horticultural perspective on the same challenges - what worked and what the future might hold

Presentation PDF [394 KB]

Emily Ogier
Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies
Insights from the COVID-19 shock: impacts and agility in seafood supply chain and markets

Presentation PDF [822 KB]

David Shelton
New Forests
The challenge for greenfield forest plantations – investment perspective

Michael Fryszer
Connect Group
The pathway to a competitive and returning horticultural workforce in Australia – challenges and opportunities
Veronica Papacosta
Seafood Industry Australia
Great Australian Seafood campaign – building up the domestic market
Rob de Fegely AM
Margules Groome Consulting
Impediments to new plantation development in Australia

 

Boris Musa
Mainstream Aquaculture Group
The future of aquaculture in a post COVID world

Presentation PDF [1.8 MB]

Penny Wells
Private Forests Tasmania
Insights from Tasmanian private forestry engagement programs and the Tasmanian Regional Forestry Hub

Presentation PDF [3 MB]

11.00am 11.30am (AEDT)

2.30pm 3.00pm (AEDT)

4.00pm 4.30pm (AEDT)

Visit ABARES and our partners at the Spotlight virtual exhibition in the Chime conference portal (access coming soon to registered delegates)

Visit ABARES and our partners at the Spotlight virtual exhibition in the Chime conference portal (access coming soon to registered delegates)

Visit ABARES and our partners at the Spotlight virtual exhibition in the Chime conference portal (access coming soon to registered delegates)


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2021 Science Award winners' showcase

11.00am 12.00pm (AEDT)

Celebrate science and innovation! Join us at the Science Award winners’ showcase and meet the 2021 winners. Hear their lightning talks about their projects and how they plan to make a difference to Australian agriculture with new approaches for industry issues. Hosted by Dr Gabrielle Vivian-Smith, acting Chief Scientist (Agriculture) in the Department of Agriculture, Water and the Environment.

Video and transcript

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FRIDAY 5 March 2021

10.00am 11.00am (AEDT)

​1.30pm 2.30pm (AEDT)

3.00pm 4.00pm (AEDT)

Helping Australian farmers adapt to climate change

Video and transcript

Milk or Milk© – how are attributes driving value creation along the supply chain?

Video and transcript

Creating value, managing risk and developing partnerships: the way forward for Australia’s biosecurity system

Video and transcript

In recent decades, Australia has seen a shift towards higher temperatures and lower winter rainfall, which has had significant impacts on productivity and profits for many farmers.  Despite these clear trends there remains much uncertainty over future conditions and the long-run effects of global warming, particularly on rainfall. This session will examine the latest modelling and projections and consider various ways in which agriculture can improve its resilience and adapt to the changing climate.

A reoccurring theme for Australian agriculture has been how to capture more value from the supply chain by transforming commodities domestically. How has this worked for the dairy industry and what do value-added attributes look like? Are companies successfully using differentiated attributes to increase the value of their products here and abroad?

Australia’s biosecurity system has played a critical role in minimising the risk of exotic pests and diseases entering Australia, protecting our agriculture sector as well as our unique environment, native flora and fauna, our tourism industries and lifestyle. A key challenge is responding to the pressures on the biosecurity system associated with increasing biosecurity risk. In this session, the scale and nature of the benefits generated by our biosecurity system, the changing profile of biosecurity risks, and key issues required in response will be explored.

CHAIR: Sarina Locke, ABC

CHAIR: Peter Somerville, ABC

CHAIR: Warwick Long, ABC

Neal Hughes
ABARES
Climate change scenarios for Australian farms

Presentation PDF [1.4 MB]

Andrew Cameron
ABARES sets the scene
Milk or Milk©? Understanding an evolving playing field for industry and government

Presentation PDF [492 KB]

Tom Kompas
Centre of Excellence for Biosecurity Risk Analysis
The value of biosecurity

Presentation PDF [2.0 MB]

Ross Kingwell
Australian Export Grains Innovation Centre
Grain farmers' climate adaptations and the journey towards carbon neutrality

Presentation PDF [1.6 MB]

Steve Ronalds
Gippsland Jersey
A producer’s perspective on value adding in the domestic niche market

Presentation PDF [3.7 MB]

Andy Sheppard
CSIRO
Australian biosecurity futures

Presentation PDF [742 KB]

Allen Benter
NSW Department of Primary Industries
Using digital technology in primary industries to adapt to climate change

Presentation PDF [2.6 MB]

Mark McDonald
Bega Cheese

Andrew Tongue
Department of Agriculture, Water and the Environment
Ag 2030 – opportunities and challenges for biosecurity

 

Jeff Hastings
Naturo
Haelen® – a world first milk processing technology creating global opportunities for Australian dairy

 

11.00am 11.30am (AEDT)

2.30pm 3.00pm (AEDT)

4.00pm 4.30pm (AEDT)

Visit ABARES and our partners at the Spotlight virtual exhibition in the Chime conference portal (access coming soon to registered delegates)

Visit ABARES and our partners at the Spotlight virtual exhibition in the Chime conference portal (access coming soon to registered delegates)

Visit ABARES and our partners at the Spotlight virtual exhibition in the Chime conference portal (access coming soon to registered delegates)