Weekly update - 1 February 2018

During the week ending 31 January 2018 rainfall was received across every state and territory with the heaviest rainfall recorded across northern Australia. An active monsoon trough with embedded tropical lows brought widespread heavy rainfall to northern Western Australia, the Northern Territory and Far North Queensland, with isolated totals exceeding 400 millimetres. Rainfall totals between 15 and 50 millimetres, were recorded in eastern New South Wales, eastern Victoria, central and northern Queensland, central South Australia, central Western Australia and Tasmania. In contrast, large areas of central Australia and south west Western Australia received little to no rain. The highest recorded weekly total was 800 millimetres at Darwin in the Northern Territory.

Rainfall - week ending 31 January 2018

 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2018, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 31/01/2018

Note: The rainfall analyses and associated maps utilise data contained in the Bureau of Meteorology climate database, the Australian Data Archive for Meteorology (ADAM). The analyses are initially produced automatically from real-time data with limited quality control. They are intended to provide a general overview of rainfall across Australia as quickly as possible after the observations are received. For further information go to Weekly Rainfall Update.

For the week ending 30 January 2018, maximum and minimum temperatures were 2°C to 10°C above average across most of southern and eastern Australia, with the highest anomalies (6°C to 10°C) recorded in western New South Wales, south west Queensland, north east South Australia, western Victoria and Tasmania. In contrast, maximum temperatures were -2°C to -8°C below average in the Northern Territory and Western Australia, which is consistent with the heavy rainfall that was recorded across northern Australia this week.

Maximum temperature anomalies - week ending 30 January 2018

 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2018, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 30/01/2018

Minimum temperature anomalies - week ending 30 January 2018

 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2018, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 30/01/2018

Note: Spatial temperature analyses are based on historical weekly temperature data provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. These temperature anomaly maps show the departure of the maximum and minimum temperatures from their long-term averages. Temperature anomalies are calculated using high-resolution gridded datasets from 1911 onwards. For further information go to Daily maximum temperature for Australia.

Relative upper layer soil moisture for January 2018 was well below average to extremely low across large areas of Queensland and adjacent parts of north east New South Wales, parts of western Victoria and Tasmania. In contrast, it was well above average across parts of southern New South Wales, eastern Victoria and much of the western half of Australia. It was close to average across the remainder of the country.

In summer cropping regions upper layer soil moisture was extremely low for southern Queensland, and below average to average in northern New South Wales. Meanwhile it was average or above in southern New South Wales.

Modelling upper layer soil moisture for January 2018

 

Source: Bureau of Meteorology (Australian Water Resources Assessment Landscape model)
Note: This map shows the levels of modelled upper layer soil moisture (0 to 10 centimetres) during December 2017. This map shows how modelled soil conditions during December 2017 compare with December conditions modelled over the reference period (1911 to 2015). Dark blue areas on the maps were much wetter in December 2017 than during the same period over the reference period. The dark red areas were much drier than during the reference period. The bulk of plant roots occur in the top 20 centimetres of the soil profile. Soil moisture in the upper layer of the soil profile is therefore the most appropriate indicator of the availability of water, particularly for germinating plants. The lower layer soil moisture is a larger, deeper store that is slower to respond to rainfall and tends to reflect accumulated rainfall events over longer time periods.

Relative lower layer soil moisture for January 2018 was extremely low to well below average across much of Queensland, northern New South Wales, western Victoria, parts of eastern South Australia and eastern Northern Territory and much of Tasmania. Lower layer soil moisture was average to extremely high across most of Western Australia and Northern Territory and much of South Australia.

In cropping regions, lower layer soil moisture was extremely low to well below average in Queensland and northern New South Wales, and below average in Victoria and eastern South Australia. It was average to well above average in southern New South Wales, western South Australian and Western Australian cropping regions.

Modelling lower layer soil moisture for January 2018

 

Source: Bureau of Meteorology (Australian Water Resources Assessment Landscape model)
Note: This map shows the levels of modelled lower layer soil moisture (10 centimetres to 1 metre) during December 2017. This map shows how modelled soil conditions during December 2017 compare with December conditions modelled over the reference period (1911 to 2015). Dark blue areas on the maps were much wetter in December 2017 than during the same period over the reference period. The dark red areas were much drier than during the reference period. The bulk of plant roots occur in the top 20 centimetres of the soil profile. Soil moisture in the upper layer of the soil profile is therefore the most appropriate indicator of the availability of water, particularly for germinating plants. The lower layer soil moisture is a larger, deeper store that is slower to respond to rainfall and tends to reflect accumulated rainfall events over longer time periods.

Rainfall is expected mainly in Queensland, the Northern Territory and Western Australia, during the next eight days. A series of low pressure systems and troughs around northern Australia are forecast to bring further heavy rainfall, with totals forecast between 10 and 100 millimetres for most of Queensland, most of the Northern Territory and much of Western Australia and parts of western South Australia. Lower totals between 1 and 10 millimetres are predicted in north and coastal New South Wales, central South Australia and Tasmania.

This rainfall forecast is produced from computer models. As it contains no input from weather forecasters, it is important to check local forecasts and warnings issued by the Bureau of Meteorology.

Total forecast rainfall (mm) for the period 1 to 8 February 2018

 

Source: ©Commonwealth of Australia 2018, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 1/02/2018

A weak La Niña continues in the Pacific Ocean, but may have peaked in recent weeks. Sea surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific have warmed slightly since late December, with most models now forecasting that La Niña will end in the southern autumn.

During summer, La Niña normally brings above average rainfall to eastern Australia–particularly in northern New South Wales and Queensland. Rainfall outlooks for Australia suggest that the current La Niña is likely to have less influence on summer rainfall than previous stronger events. La Niña can also increase the likelihood of prolonged warm spells for south-eastern Australia (Bureau of Meteorology ‘ENSO Wrap-Up’, 30 January 2018).

Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) decreased during the week ending 1 February 2018 by 379 gigalitres (GL) to 13,717 GL and are at 61 per cent of total capacity. This is 17 percentage points or 3,784 GL less than at the same time last year.

Visit the interactive Tableau data dashboard

Water storages in the Murray-Darling Basin (NSW, Victoria and Queensland)

 

Information on water available in dams used for irrigation the Murray–Darling Basin from 1 January 2001 to 1 February 2018 is shown above. The top horizontal (short dash) line indicates the storage level during a similar time last year. The bottom horizontal (long dash) line indicates the amount of ‘dead’ or unusable storage.

On 31 January 2018 NSW Department of Primary Industries – Water announced allocation increases of:

• 3.79 per cent for NSW Border Rivers General Security B to 19.62 per cent

The current water allocations for the 2017–18 water trading season for licence holders in New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia water systems are summarised in the following table and charts.

Water allocations in the Murray–Darling Basin (NSW, Victoria and South Australia)

Allocations at	1 February 2018		15 January 2018
New South Wales	General security	High security	General security	High security
NSW Murray	49%	97%	49%	97%
NSW Murrumbidgee	33%	95%	33%	95%
NSW Lower Darling	100%	100%	100%	100%
NSW Macquarie and Cudgegong	38%	100%	38%	100%
NSW Hunter	100%	100%	100%	100%
NSW Lachlan	2%	100%	2%	100%
NSW Lower Namoi	7%	100%	7%	100%
NSW Upper Namoi	100%	100%	100%	100%
NSW Gwydir	17%	100%	17%	100%
NSW Border Rivers	100%(a)/19.62%(b)	100%	100%(a)/15.83%(b)	100%
NSW Peel	100%	100%	100%	100%
Victoria	Low reliability	High reliability	Low reliability	High reliability
Victoria Murray	0%	100%	0%	100%
Victoria Goulburn	0%	100%	0%	100%
Victoria Campaspe	52%	100%	52%	100%
Victoria Loddon	0%	100%	0%	100%
Victoria Bullarook	100%	100%	100%	100%
Victoria Broken	100%	100%	100%	100%
South Australia		Class 3a/3b		Class 3a/3b
South Australia Murray		100%		100%

Select water allocation percentages in the southern Murray-Darling Basin

 

 

 

 

Allocation prices in the southern Murray–Darling Basin increased in the week ending 1 February 2018 to $109 per ML. This is an increase of $3 from the same time last week. This contrasts with an average price of $101 in January across the whole southern MDB, and $82 during the same time last year.

Allocation trade activity in the southern Murray–Darling Basin

 

The trades shown reflect estimated market activity and do not encompass all register trades. The price line reflects locally fitted price values for the entire southern Murray–Darling Basin. Data shown is current until 1 February 2018. Trade activity is shown as colour density.

Allocation trade prices, southern Murray–Darling Basin trade zones

	Southern MDB	Victoria Goulburn	SA Murray	NSW Murrumbidgee	Victoria Murray	NSW Murray
Current week: 26/01/18 – 01/02/18	$108.86	$81.58	$111.09	$122.88	$111.14	$115.96
Last week: 19/01/18 – 25/01/18	$106.25	$81.26	$108.44	$121.85	$112.07	$109.32
December 2017	$101.10	$77.92	$114.64	$120.50	$108.41	$110.06
December 2016	$82.09	$93.83	$108.50	$57.61	$95.63	$87.36

Indicator	Week ended	Unit	Latest price	Price week prior	Weekly change	Price 12 months prior	Year on year change	Chart
Selected world indicator prices
Australian Dollar – AUD/USD Exchange Rate	31-Jan	US$/A$	0.81	0.8	1%	0.76	7%	chart
Wheat – US no. 2 hard red winter wheat, fob Gulf	30-Jan	US$/t	232	225	3%	205	13%	chart
Coarse Grains – US no. 2 yellow corn, fob Gulf	31-Jan	US$/t	159	156	2%	161	-1%	chart
Canola – Rapeseed, Europe, fob Hamburga	30-Jan	US$/t	432	422	2%	457	-5%	chart
Cotton – Cotlook 'A' Index	31-Jan	USc/lb	91.3	93.6	-1%	83.6	9%	chart
Sugar – Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, no.11 contract	31-Jan	USc/lb	13.4	13.2	2%	20.5	-35%	chart
Wool – Eastern Market Indicator	25-Jan	Ac/kg clean	1,744	1,801	-3%	1,412	24%	chart
Wool – Western Market Indicator	26-Jan	Ac/kg clean	1,821	1,860	-2%	1,457	25%	chart
Selected domestic crop indicator prices
Milling Wheat – ASW1, track quote, Port Adelaide, SA	23-Jan	A$/t	224	222	<1%	184	22%	chart
Feed Wheat – General purpose, Sydney, NSW	31-Jan	A$/t	253	253	0%	199	27%	chart
Feed Barley – Sydney, NSW	31-Jan	A$/t	262	262	0%	178	47%	chart
Canola – Portland, Vic.	29-Jan	A$/t	478	482	<1%	532	-10%	chart
Grain Sorghum – Sydney, NSW	31-Jan	A$/t	285	285	0%	234	22%	chart
Selected domestic livestock indicator prices
Beef – Eastern Young Cattle Indicator	01-Feb	Ac/kg cwt	533	546	-2%	655	-19%	chart
Mutton – Mutton indicator (18-24 kg fat score 2-3), Vic	26-Jan	Ac/kg cwt	399	408	-2%	403	<1%	chart
Lamb – Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator	01-Feb	Ac/kg cwt	637	633	<1%	645	-1%	chart
Pig – Eastern Seaboard (60.1-75 kg), average of buyers & sellers	19-Jan	Ac/kg cwt	274	277	-1%	371	-26%	chart
Goat – Eastern States (12.1-16 kg)	29-Jan	Ac/kg cwt	483	483	0%	620	-22%	chart
Live cattle – Light steers ex Darwin to Indonesia	27-Jan	Ac/kg lwt	320	320	0%	375	-15%	chart
Live sheep – Live wether (Muchea WA saleyard) to Middle East	29-Jan	$/head	114	122	-7%	103	11%	chart
Global Dairy Trade weighted average pricesa
Dairy – Whole milk powder	16-Jan	US$/t	3,010	2,886	4%	3,283	-8%	chart
Dairy – Skim milk powder	16-Jan	US$/t	1,818	1,699	7%	2,612	-30%	chart
Dairy – Cheddar cheese	16-Jan	US$/t	3,486	3,317	5%	3,940	-12%	chart
Dairy – Anhydrous milk fat	16-Jan	US$/t	6,547	6,405	2%	5,528	18%	chart

^a Global Dairy Trade prices are updated twice monthly on the first and third Tuesday of each month.

Movements in selected fruit and vegetable prices
Data attribution