Weekly update - 2 July 2020

During the week ending 1 July 2020, a series of cold fronts generated rainfall across south-western Western Australia while a high-pressure system limited rainfall across south-eastern Australia. Rainfall totals of between 10 and 50 millimetres were recorded across parts of south-western Western Australia, western Tasmania and isolated parts of eastern Queensland. Rainfall in excess of 50 millimetres was recorded across small areas of south-western Western Australia.

In Australia’s cropping regions, rainfall totals of between 10 and 50 millimetres were recorded across parts of the northern and central wheat belt in Western Australia. Across remaining cropping regions little to no rainfall was recorded during the week ending 1 June 2020.

These falls are likely to support ongoing pasture growth and crop development across Western Australian growing regions.

Rainfall for the week ending 1 July 2020

©Commonwealth of Australia 2020, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 01/07/2020

Note: The rainfall analyses and associated maps utilise data contained in the Bureau of Meteorology climate database, the Australian Data Archive for Meteorology (ADAM). The analyses are initially produced automatically from real-time data with limited quality control. They are intended to provide a general overview of rainfall across Australia as quickly as possible after the observations are received. For further information go to http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/rainfall/

June 2020 was warmer than average nationally, with a national mean temperature of 1.10°C above average.

Maximum temperatures for June were above average across much of Australia, with very much above average to highest on record temperatures across much of western and far northern Australia. Minimum temperatures were above average across parts of north-eastern and south-western Australia, and below average across parts of central and south-eastern Australia. Generally average to above average temperatures in southern Australia have likely benefitted germination and growth of pasture and winter crops during June.

Maximum temperature deciles for June 2020

©Commonwealth of Australia 2020, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 01/07/2020

Minimum temperature deciles for June 2020

©Commonwealth of Australia 2020, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 01/07/2020

Note: Maximum and minimum temperatures for June 2020 compared with temperature recorded for that period during the historical record (1900 to present). For further information go to: http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/temp/index.jsp.

June 2020 rainfall was below average across much of Australia, with average rainfall across parts of the northern and eastern coastlines and isolated areas of well below average rainfall across parts of southern Australia.

June 2020 rainfall totals were below average to average across most cropping regions. Although rainfall totals were low during the first two weeks of June, cropping regions in New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia recorded substantial rainfall during autumn that replenished soil moisture and supported early growth. In contrast, cropping regions in Western Australia and Queensland generally recorded below average autumn rainfall and needed substantial rainfall in June to initiate further planting and support germination and establishment. Higher rainfall totals were recorded across cropping regions in the second half of June, supporting ongoing pasture and crop development in New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia, and initiating further planting and growth in Queensland and Western Australia.

Rainfall percentiles for June 2020

Source: Bureau of Meteorology
Note: Rainfall for June  2020 is compared with rainfall recorded for that period during the historical record (1900 to present). For further information, go to http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/

Upper layer soil moisture in June 2020 was below average across large areas of western and central Australia for this time of year. Soil moisture was average across much of northern Australia and the eastern coastline.

Relative upper layer soil moisture was below average to average for this time of year across cropping regions. Upper layer soil moisture was below average across parts of cropping regions in western New South Wales, south-western Queensland, central Victoria, South Australia and the northern and southern wheat belt of Western Australia.

Modelled upper layer soil moisture for June 2020

Source: Bureau of Meteorology (Australian Water Resources Assessment Landscape model)
Note: This map shows the levels of modelled upper layer soil moisture (0 to 10 centimetres) during June  2020. This map shows how modelled soil conditions during June  2020 compare with June  conditions modelled over the reference period (1911 to 2016). Dark blue areas on the maps were much wetter in June  2020 than during the reference period. The dark red areas were much drier than during the reference period. The bulk of plant roots occur in the top 20 centimetres of the soil profile. Soil moisture in the upper layer of the soil profile is therefore useful indicator of the availability of water, particularly for germinating seed.

Lower layer soil moisture for June  2020 was mixed across Australia for this time of year. It was below average to very much below average across much of South Australia, south-western Western Australia and much of south-western Queensland, north-eastern New South Wales, and the far north and south of the Northern Territory. Lower layer soil moisture was above average across parts of northern Queensland, eastern New South Wales, central Victoria, northern Western Australia, the centre of the Northern Territory and Tasmania.

In cropping regions, lower layer soil moisture was average to above average for much of Queensland, New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia. Relative lower layer soil moisture was below average for much of Western Australia cropping regions and isolated areas of cropping regions in other states.

Modelled lower layer soil moisture for June 2020

Source: Bureau of Meteorology (Australian Water Resources Assessment Landscape model)
Note: This map shows the levels of modelled lower layer soil moisture (10 to 100 centimetres) during June  2020. This map shows how modelled soil conditions during June  2020 compare with November conditions modelled over the reference period (1911 to 2016). Dark blue areas on the maps were much wetter in June  2020 than during the reference period. The dark red areas were much drier than during the reference period. The bulk of plant roots occur in the top 20 centimetres of the soil profile. The lower layer soil moisture is a larger, deeper store that is slower to respond to rainfall and tends to reflect accumulated rainfall events over longer time periods.

The northern rainfall onset outlook provides an indication of whether the first significant rains after the dry season are likely to be earlier or later than normal. The onset occurs when the total rainfall after 1 September reaches 50 millimetres, this is considered approximately the amount of rainfall required to stimulate plant growth. 

The latest northern rainfall onset outlook released by the Bureau of Meteorology suggests that an early northern rainfall onset for the 2020-21 season is slightly more likely across much of the central and east of northern Australia away from the coastlines. The chance of an early rainfall onset is greater than 65% for parts of central and western Queensland, and isolated parts of the Northern Territory. This would contrast the past two northern wet seasons that had later than normal onsets, reducing the length of the dryland summer growing season and the recharge of water storages. An early onset of the 2020­-21 northern wet season is likely to boost soil moisture and water storages, and benefit summer crops and northern pasture growth.

The likelihood of an earlier than normal northern rainfall onset is increased due to above average temperatures in the Indian Ocean and an increased chance of a La Niña-like pattern emerging in late winter or early spring.

Chance of early northern rainfall onset

Persistent high-pressure systems over southern Australia are expected to limit rainfall over the next eight days. Rainfall totals of between 10 and 50 millimetres are forecast for parts of far south-eastern Australia, far south-western Western Australia, Tasmania and isolated parts of north-eastern Queensland. Falls in excess of 50 millimetres are forecast across parts of western Tasmania.

In cropping regions, rainfall of between 5 and 15 millimetres is expected across much of Western Australia and parts of far south-eastern New South Wales and southern Victoria. Little to no rainfall is expected across remaining cropping regions during the next eight days.

Total forecast rainfall (mm) for the period 2 July 2020 to 9 July 2020

©Commonwealth of Australia 2020, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 02/07/2020

Note: This rainfall forecast is produced from computer models. As the model outputs are not altered by weather forecasters, it is important to check local forecasts and warnings issued by the Bureau of Meteorology.

^a Global Dairy Trade prices are updated twice monthly on the first and third Tuesday of each month.
^b Note that several indicator price series for livestock are temporarily suspended. More information and temporary replacement series can be found at https://www.mla.com.au/prices-markets/market-news/changes-to-mlas-market-reporting/

Selected world indicator prices
Selected domestic crop indicator prices
Selected domestic livestock indicator prices
Global dairy trade weighted average prices
Movements in selected fruit and vegetable prices
Data attribution