Weekly update - 3 August 2017
Key issues
- During the week ending 2 August 2017 widespread rainfall was recorded across southern Australia.
- For the week ending 1 August 2017 maximum temperatures were more than 2°C above average and minimum temperatures were generally close to average over most of mainland Australia.
- Rainfall for July 2017 was generally extremely low over the southern half of mainland Australia, particularly in New South Wales, South Australia and central areas of Western Australia.
- The national mean maximum temperature during July 2017 was the highest on record for July, at 2.62°C above average.
- Upper layer soil moisture for July 2017 was extremely low in south-eastern, southern, north-western and northern Australia.
- There is an increased chance of an early rainfall onset across parts of northern Australia for 2017–18.
- Widespread rainfall is forecast for southern Australia during the next eight days. Rainfall totals between 5 and 50 millimetres are expected in south-western and central Western Australia, south-eastern South Australia, Victoria, Tasmania, coastal northern Queensland and most of New South Wales.
- Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) decreased during the week ending 3 August 2017 by 55 gigalitres (GL) to 15,707 GL and are at 70 per cent of total capacity. This is 14 percentage points or 3,185 GL more than at the same time last year.
- Victorian high reliability water allocations have increased in Goulburn and Loddon by 4 per cent; Broken by 5 per cent; and Bullarook by 32 per cent.
- Water allocation prices in the southern Murray–Darling Basin fell slightly in the week up to 3 August in most systems. Average prices across the whole southern system fell to $122 a megalitre.
- The world wheat indicator price fell 4 per cent reflecting increased supplies of grain entering the supply chain as the US harvest progresses.
- The world sugar indicator price rose 3 per cent following the Brazilian Government’s tax reduction on ethanol.
- The weighted average price of butter almost doubled over the 12 months to 1 August 2017.
Climate
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Rainfall this week
During the week ending 2 August 2017 widespread rainfall was recorded across southern Australia. Totals between 5 and 50 millimetres were recorded in southern Western Australia, southern and eastern South Australia, and most of Victoria. Similar totals were recorded in north-western, central and south-eastern New South Wales, and along the tropical north coast of Queensland. Rainfall totals exceeding 50 millimetres were recorded in far south-western Western Australia and western Tasmania, including the highest recorded weekly total of 187 millimetres at Strahan.
The rainfall analyses and associated maps utilise data contained in the Bureau of Meteorology climate database, the Australian Data Archive for Meteorology (ADAM). The analyses are initially produced automatically from real-time data with limited quality control. They are intended to provide a general overview of rainfall across Australia as quickly as possible after the observations are received.
For further information go to Weekly Rainfall UpdateRainfall - week ending 2 August 2017
©Commonwealth of Australia 2017, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 2/08/2017
Temperature anomalies this week
During the week ending 1 August 2017 maximum temperatures were generally more than 2°C above average over most of mainland Australia. Parts of eastern Western Australia, the Northern Territory, Queensland, South Australia and northern New South Wales recorded maximum temperatures between 4°C and 8°C above average. Minimum temperatures were close to average for most of the country. Parts of central Western Australia, northern South Australia, south-western Queensland, north-eastern New South Wales and the Northern Territory recorded minimum temperatures between 2°C and 6°C above average. Minimum temperatures were between 2°C and 4°C below average in eastern Queensland, north-eastern New South Wales and around Port Augusta in South Australia.
Maximum temperature anomalies - week ending 1 August 2017
©Commonwealth of Australia 2017, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 01/08/2017
Minimum temperature anomalies - week ending 1 August 2017
©Commonwealth of Australia 2017, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 01/08/2017
Note: Spatial temperature analyses are based on historical weekly temperature data provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. These temperature anomaly maps show the departure of the maximum and minimum temperatures from their long-term averages. Temperature anomalies are calculated using high-resolution gridded datasets from 1911 onwards. For further information go to Daily maximum temperature for Australia.
Monthly rainfall
While most areas were less dry than in June 2017, July 2017 rainfall was generally extremely low over much of the southern half of mainland Australia, particularly in New South Wales, South Australia and central areas of Western Australia. Rainfall was close to average in southern coastal areas and Tasmania. Parts of northern Australia were wetter than average, mainly central Northern Territory and north-western Queensland due to an out-of-season rainfall event in early July.
In cropping regions, July 2017 rainfall was generally close to average in Queensland, Victoria, South Australia and Western Australia–an increase from the severe deficiencies in June 2017. However, rainfall was severely deficient in central New South Wales. While July rainfall is likely to have improved prospects for winter crop growth and pasture production, further follow-up rainfall is required to maintain yield potentials as the season progresses.
Rainfall percentiles for July 2017
Source: ©Commonwealth of Australia 2017, Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Note: Spatial rainfall percentile analyses are based on historical monthly rainfall data provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. These rainfall percentile maps show how rainfall recorded during that given time period compared with the rainfall recorded for that same period during the entire historical record (1900 to present). Rainfall percentiles are a way of providing an indication of the spread of data in a data set. To calculate percentiles, the entire rainfall record at a certain point is divided into one hundred equal parts. The 5th percentile for July 2017 means that only five per cent of all Julys in the historical record have recorded a rainfall total that is at or below the rainfall recorded during July 2017. Dark blue areas on the maps are those areas that were wetter than the same time of year during the entire historical record, and dark red areas are drier. For further information go to Australian Water Availability Project.
Monthly temperature
The Bureau of Meteorology report that Australia’s maximum temperatures during July 2017 were the warmest on record for July. The national mean maximum temperature was 2.62°C above the average maximum temperature and 0.66°C above the previous record set in 1975. The warmth was especially evident in the northern half of Australia, with Queensland, Northern Territory and Western Australia also recording their warmest July maximum temperatures on record. Minimum temperatures were generally above average in northern Australia and below average in south-eastern Australia and Tasmania (Bureau of Meteorology, ‘Australia in July 2017’, 1 August 2017).
With major oceanic and atmospheric climate drivers currently at neutral levels, one of the main climate influences was a contraction of the westerly wind belt towards Antarctica–known as a positive phase of the Southern Annular Mode. This resulted in a series of high pressure systems which brought clear skies and warm air masses, and prevented cold fronts moving north from Victoria and New South Wales.
Maximum temperature deciles for July 2017
©Commonwealth of Australia 2017, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 01/08/2017
Minimum temperature deciles for July 2017
©Commonwealth of Australia 2017, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 01/08/2017
Recent soil moisture percentiles
The maps below show the levels of modelled upper layer soil moisture (0 to 10 centimetres) and lower layer soil moisture (10 centimetres to 1 metre) during July 2017. These maps show how modelled soil conditions during June 2017 compare with July conditions modelled over the reference period (1911 to 2015). Dark blue areas on the maps were much wetter in July 2017 than during the same period over the reference period. The dark red areas were much drier than during the reference period.
The bulk of plant roots occur in the top 20 centimetres of the soil profile. Soil moisture in the upper layer of the soil profile is therefore the most appropriate indicator of the availability of water, particularly for germinating plants. The lower layer soil moisture is a larger, deeper store that is slower to respond to rainfall and tends to reflect accumulated rainfall events over longer time periods.
Relative upper layer soil moisture for July 2017 was extremely low in south-eastern, southern, north-western and northern Australia. The largest areas of extremely low upper layer soil moisture were in central and eastern New South Wales and north-western Western Australia. In contrast, upper layer soil moisture was above average in central and south-western Western Australia, eastern South Australia and central parts of the Northern Territory. For the remainder of the country, upper layer soil moisture was close to average.
Upper layer soil moisture in cropping regions in Western Australia, South Australia, Victoria and Queensland increased from well below average in June 2017 to average in July 2017. In New South Wales, upper layer soil moisture increased from well below average to average in the north and south but remained extremely low around central parts. The pattern of relative upper layer soil moisture reflects July 2017 rainfall.
Modelled upper layer soil moisture for July 2017
Source: ©Commonwealth of Australia 2017, Australian Bureau of Meteorology (Australian Water Resources Assessment Landscape model)
Relative lower layer soil moisture for July 2017 was well below average to extremely low across much of western and southern Western Australia, southern South Australia, most of Tasmania, and across northern and eastern Victoria. Similar soil moisture levels were modelled for most of New South Wales except the north-east, and across central Queensland. Lower layer soil moisture was well above average to extremely high in central and northern parts of the Northern Territory, central Western Australia, north-eastern Queensland and across the Top End.
In cropping regions, lower layer soil moisture was generally below average to extremely low in all states.
Modelled lower layer soil moisture for July 2017
Source: ©Commonwealth of Australia 2017, Australian Bureau of Meteorology (Australian Water Resources Assessment Landscape model)
Northern rainfall onset 2017–18
According to the Bureau of Meteorology, there is an increased chance of an early rainfall onset for 2017–18 across parts of northern Australia. The Cape York Peninsula, the Kimberley, and areas near the Western Australia–Northern Territory border are likely to have an early rainfall onset. Elsewhere in northern Australia, the chances of an early or late rainfall onset are roughly equal. At this time of year model outlooks have high accuracy (more than 75 per cent consistent) across parts of the Top End and the Cape York Peninsula. (Bureau of Meteorology ‘Northern rainfall onset’, 27 July 2017).
The northern rainfall onset date occurs when the rainfall total in a particular region reaches 50 millimetres or more from 1 September onwards. It is considered to be approximately the amount of rainfall required to stimulate plant growth after the dry season.
In general, parts of coastal Queensland and the western Top End receive the first useful rainfall by late October or early November, spreading further south and inland over the following weeks. The southern inland regions of the Northern Territory and western parts of Western Australia usually have the latest northern rainfall onset around mid-January.
For further information go to Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Northern rainfall onset.
As major climate drivers are currently in a neutral state, secondary influences such as local ocean temperatures and the Madden-Julian Oscillation are likely to have more influence over the timing of the northern rainfall onset.
Chance of early northern rainfall onset
Source: ©Commonwealth of Australia 2017, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 27/07/2017
Model accuracy for northern rainfall onset – forecasts from July
Source: ©Commonwealth of Australia 2017, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 17/06/2015
Rainfall forecast for the next 8 days
Widespread rainfall is forecast for southern Australia during the next eight days. Rainfall totals between 5 and 50 millimetres are expected in south-western and central Western Australia, south-eastern South Australia, Victoria, Tasmania, coastal northern Queensland, and most of New South Wales. Rainfall totals are forecast to exceed 50 millimetres in alpine areas of Victoria and New South Wales, southern coastal regions of Western Australia, and western Tasmania.
Total forecast rainfall (mm) for the period 3 to 10 August 2017
Source: ©Commonwealth of Australia 2017, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 03/07/2017
Water
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Water availability
Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) decreased during the week ending 3 August 2017 by 55 gigalitres (GL) to 15,707 GL and are at 70 per cent of total capacity. This is 14 percentage points or 3,185 GL more than at the same time last year.
Water storages in the Murray-Darling Basin (NSW, Victoria and Queensland)
Information on irrigation water available in the Murray–Darling Basin from 1 January 2001 to 3 August 2017 is shown above. The top horizontal (short dash) line indicates the storage level during a similar time last year. The bottom horizontal (long dash) line indicates the amount of ‘dead’ or unusable storage.
Water storages
Changes in regional water storage for July 2017 and the previous 12 months are summarised in the table and graph below (current at 3 August 2017).
Region | Total capacity (GL) | Current volume (GL) | Current volume (%) | Monthly change (GL) | Monthly change (%) | Annual change (GL) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) | 22,559 | 15,707 | 70 | 49 | 0 | 3,185 |
Murray–Darling Basin Authority (MDBA) | 9,352 | 6,086 | 62 | 163 | 2 | 2,721 |
Queensland MDB | 186 | 163 | 88 | -6 | -3 | 63 |
Central Queensland | 3,154 | 2,624 | 83 | -65 | -2 | 37 |
South-east Queensland | 3,517 | 2,320 | 66 | -38 | -1 | 83 |
New South Wales MDB | 13,884 | 9,453 | 68 | 318 | 2 | 4,034 |
Coastal New South Wales | 1,074 | 933 | 87 | -1 | 0 | 36 |
State water storages in the Murray–Darling Basin (NSW, Victoria and Queensland)
Water allocations
The current water allocations for the 2017–18 water trading season for licence holders in New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia water systems are summarised in the following table. Victorian high reliability allocations have increased in Goulburn and Loddon by 4 per cent; Broken by 5 per cent; and Bullarook by 32 per cent.
Allocations at | 3-Aug-17 | 13-Jul-17 | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
New South Wales | General security | High security | General security | High security |
NSW Murray Valley | 13% | 97% | 11% | 97% |
NSW Murrumbidgee Valley | 20% | 95% | 17% | 95% |
NSW Lower Darling | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
NSW Macquarie and Cudgegong Valley | 36% | 100% | 36% | 100% |
NSW Hunter Valley | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
NSW Lachlan Valley | 0% | 100% | 0% | 100% |
NSW Lower Namoi | 0% | 100% | 0% | 100% |
NSW Upper Namoi | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
NSW Gwydir Valley | 0.0% | 100% | 0.0% | 100% |
NSW Border Rivers | 100%(a) / 8%(b) | 100% | 100%(a) / 8%(b) | 100% |
NSW Peel Valley | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
(a) General Security A class. (b) General Security B class
Allocations at | 3-Aug-17 | 13-Jul-17 | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
Victoria | Low reliability | High reliability | Low reliability | High reliability |
Victoria Murray Valley | 0% | 66% | 0% | 66% |
Victoria Goulburn | 0% | 40% | 0% | 36% |
Victoria Campaspe | 0% | 100% | 0% | 100% |
Victoria Loddon | 0% | 40% | 0% | 36% |
Victoria Bullarook | 0% | 32% | 0% | 0% |
Victoria Broken | 0% | 6% | 0% | 1% |
Allocations at | 3-Aug-17 | 13-Jul-17 |
---|---|---|
South Australia | High security | High security |
South Australia Murray Valley | 100% | 100% |
Water markets
Allocation prices in the southern Murray–Darling Basin fell in the week up to 3 August in most systems. Average prices across the whole southern system fell to $122. This is a decrease of $19 or 13 per cent from the same time last week, due in part to a higher volume of high value trade in prior weeks in the South Australian Murray. This contrasts with an average price of $124 in July across the whole southern MDB.
Allocation trade activity in the southern Murray–Darling Basin
The trades shown reflect market activity and do not encompass all register trades. The price line reflects locally fitted price values for the entire southern Murray-Darling Basin. Data shown is current until Thursday 3 August, 2017.
|
Southern MDB |
Victoria Goulburn |
SA Murray |
NSW Murrumbidgee |
Victoria Murray |
NSW Murray |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Current week: 28/07/17 - 03/08/17 |
$122.25 |
$115.00 |
$129.21 |
$124.35 |
$124.69 |
$124.75 |
Last week: 21/07/17 - 27/07/17 |
$141.30 |
$114.37 |
$193.83 |
$121.25 |
$115.67 |
$126.09 |
July 2017 |
$124.64 |
$109.79 |
$191.30 |
$107.76 |
$118.65 |
$117.81 |
July 2016 |
$157.33 |
$229.63 |
$240.60 |
$115.56 |
$181.01 |
$208.58 |
Commodities
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Market focus
Wheat price
The world wheat indicator price (US no.2 hard red winter, fob Gulf) fell 4 per cent to average $218 a tonne in the week ending 1 August 2017. This fall reflects increased supplies of grain entering the supply chain in the US. As at 30 July 2017, the United States had completed 88 per cent of its winter wheat harvest. (United States Department of Agriculture National Agricultural Statistics Service).
Sugar price
The world sugar indicator price (Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, no. 11 contract) rose by 3 per cent to average US14.7 cents a pound in the week ending 2 August 2017. This was in response to the Brazilian Government’s reduction in the tax on ethanol which is expected to result in more cane being diverted into the production of ethanol at the expense of sugar. The tax on traditional fuels, gasoline and diesel remained unchanged.
Butter price
The weighted average price of butter almost doubled to US$5,747 a tonne in the 12 months to 1 August 2017, reflecting a higher global demand than supply, particularly in New Zealand.
Current indicators – 3 August 2017
Indicator | Week ended | Unit | Latest price | Price week prior | Weekly change | Price 12 months prior | Year on year change | Chart |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Selected world indicator prices |
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Australian Dollar – AUD/USD Exchange Rate | 02-Aug | US$/A$ | 0.8 | 0.79 | 1%![]() |
0.75 | 7%![]() |
chart |
Wheat – US no. 2 hard red winter wheat, fob Gulf | 01-Aug | US$/t | 218 | 226 | -4%![]() |
189 | 15%![]() |
chart |
Coarse Grains – US no. 2 yellow corn, fob Gulf | 02-Aug | US$/t | 153 | 156 | -2%![]() |
157 | -3%![]() |
chart
|
Canola – Rapeseed, Europe, fob Hamburg | 01-Aug | US$/t | 424 | 415 | 2%![]() |
399 | 6%![]() |
chart |
Cotton – Cotlook 'A' Index | 02-Aug | USc/lb | 82.6 | 84.7 | -2%![]() |
83.7 | -1%![]() |
chart |
Sugar – Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, no.11 contract | 02-Aug | USc/lb | 14.7 | 14.3 | 3%![]() |
19 | -23%![]() |
chart |
Wool – Eastern Market Indicator | 13-Jul | Ac/kg clean | 1,522 | 1,524 | <1%![]() |
1,311 | 16%![]() |
chart
|
Wool – Western Market Indicator | 14-Jul | Ac/kg clean | 1,570 | 1,561 | <1%![]() |
1,423 | 10%![]() |
chart
|
Selected domestic crop indicator prices |
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Milling Wheat – ASW1, track quote, Port Adelaide, SA | 01-Aug | A$/t | 231 | 244 | -5%![]() |
228 | 1%![]() |
chart
|
Feed Wheat – General purpose, Sydney, NSW | 02-Aug | A$/t | 270 | 275 | -2%![]() |
242 | 12%![]() |
chart
|
Feed Barley – Sydney, NSW | 02-Aug | A$/t | 251 | 200 | 26%![]() |
198 | 27%![]() |
chart
|
Canola – Portland, Vic. | 31-Jul | A$/t | 502 | 498 | <1%![]() |
481 | 4%![]() |
chart
|
Grain Sorghum – Sydney, NSW | 02-Aug | A$/t | 309 | 309 | 0% | 229 | 35%![]() |
chart
|
Selected domestic livestock indicator prices |
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Beef – Eastern Young Cattle Indicator | 27-Jul | Ac/kg cwt | 584 | 595 | -2%![]() |
662 | -12%![]() |
chart
|
Mutton – Mutton indicator (18-24 kg fat score 2-3), Vic | 21-Jul | Ac/kg cwt | 413 | 470 | -12%![]() |
397 | 4%![]() |
chart
|
Lamb – Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator | 27-Jul | Ac/kg cwt | 576 | 628 | -8%![]() |
635 | -9%![]() |
chart
|
Pig – Eastern Seaboard (60.1-75 kg), average of buyers & sellers | 21-Jun | Ac/kg cwt | 276 | 275 | <1%![]() |
378 | -27%![]() |
chart
|
Goat – Eastern States (12.1-16 kg) | 31-Jul | Ac/kg cwt | 647 | 647 | 0% | 574 | 13%![]() |
chart
|
Live cattle – Light steers ex Darwin to Indonesia | 20-May | Ac/kg lwt | 320 | 320 | 0% | 280 | 14%![]() |
chart
|
Live sheep – Live wether (Muchea WA saleyard) to Middle East | 24-Jul | $/head | 115 | 121 | -5%![]() |
na | na | chart
|
Global Dairy Trade weighted average pricesa |
||||||||
Dairy – Whole milk powder | 01-Aug | US$/t | 3,343 | 3,114 | 7%![]() |
2,265 | 48%![]() |
chart
|
Dairy – Skim milk powder | 01-Aug | US$/t | 1,966 | 2,024 | -3%![]() |
1,965 | <1%![]() |
chart
|
Dairy – Cheddar cheese | 01-Aug | US$/t | 3,932 | 4,112 | -4%![]() |
2,889 | 36%![]() |
chart
|
Dairy – Anhydrous milk fat | 01-Aug | US$/t | 6,289 | 6,577 | -4%![]() |
3,797 | 66%![]() |
chart
|
a Global Dairy Trade prices are updated twice monthly on the first and third Tuesday of each month.
Movements in selected fruit and vegetable prices
Data attribution