Weekly update - 5 April 2018
Key issues
- During the week ending 4 April 2018 rainfall was mainly recorded in western and northern Australia, western Tasmania and along Australia’s north-east coast. Little to no rainfall was received across the remainder of the country.
- Maximum temperatures were between 2°C and 4°C above average across most of mainland Australia for the week ending 3 April 2018. Higher anomalies (6°C to 8°C above average) were observed in south-western Queensland, and central and northern parts of New South Wales.
- Rainfall during March 2018 was extremely high in northern and eastern Queensland and southern parts of the Northern Territory. Parts of Tasmania and the mid-north coast of New South Wales also received extremely high rainfall. Below average rainfall was recorded across large parts of southern Australia, with areas of severe deficiency in central New South Wales, central South Australia and southern parts of Western Australia.
- Relative upper layer soil moisture for March 2018 was extremely high across central and northern Queensland, and south-eastern parts of the Northern Territory. It was extremely low in central New South Wales and across the southern half of South Australia.
- Rainfall deficiencies have decreased across western Queensland at the 12-month timescale due to above average March rainfall. In contrast, there has been some expansion in the areas affected by severe and serious rainfall deficiency in south-eastern Australia.
- During the next eight days little to no rainfall is expected across most of mainland Australia. Rainfall totals between 25 and 50 millimetres are forecast along Queensland’s east coast, the Cape York Peninsula and parts of the Top End, Northern Territory. Similar totals are predicted for western Tasmania.
- Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) decreased during the week ending 5 April 2018 by 174 gigalitres (GL) to 11,569 GL and are at 51 per cent of total capacity. This is 17 percentage points or 3,743 GL less than at the same time last year.
- Allocation prices in the southern Murray–Darling Basin remained the same in the week ending 5 April 2018 at $124 per ML. This is an increase of $2 from the same time last week.
Climate
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Rainfall this week
During the week ending 4 April 2018 rainfall was mainly recorded in western and northern Australia, western Tasmania and along Australia’s north-east coast. Little to no rainfall was received across the remainder of the country. Rainfall totals between 15 and 50 millimetres were recorded in central and northern parts of Western Australia and the Northern Territory. Similar totals were recorded in coastal, south-western and northern parts of Queensland, and in western Tasmania. Higher totals (exceeding 100 millimetres) were recorded between Mackay and Townsville (associated with the reformation of Tropical Cyclone Iris) and in parts of the Cape York Peninsula. The highest recorded weekly total was 468 millimetres at Macknade Sugar Mill, north of Townsville.
Rainfall - week ending 4 April 2018
©Commonwealth of Australia 2018, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 4/04/2018
Note: The rainfall analyses and associated maps utilise data contained in the Bureau of Meteorology climate database, the Australian Data Archive for Meteorology (ADAM). The analyses are initially produced automatically from real-time data with limited quality control. They are intended to provide a general overview of rainfall across Australia as quickly as possible after the observations are received. For further information go to Weekly Rainfall Update.
Temperature anomalies this week
For the week ending 3 April 2018, maximum temperatures were between 2°C and 4°C above average across most of mainland Australia. Higher anomalies (6°C to 8°C above average) were observed in south-western Queensland, and central and northern parts of New South Wales. Minimum temperatures were between 2°C and 4°C above average in Queensland and central parts of Western Australia and the Northern Territory. They were close to average for the rest of the country.
Maximum temperature anomalies - week ending 3 April 2018
©Commonwealth of Australia 2018, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 3/04/2018
Minimum temperature anomalies - week ending 3 April 2018
©Commonwealth of Australia 2018, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 3/04/2018
Note: Spatial temperature analyses are based on historical weekly temperature data provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. These temperature anomaly maps show the departure of the maximum and minimum temperatures from their long-term averages. Temperature anomalies are calculated using high-resolution gridded datasets from 1911 onwards. For further information go to Daily maximum temperature for Australia.
Monthly rainfall
For Australia as a whole, rainfall during March 2018 was close to average. However, there was high degree of variability across the country. Extremely high rainfall was observed in northern and eastern Queensland and southern parts of the Northern Territory. Parts of Tasmania and the mid-north coast of New South Wales also received extremely high rainfall. Below average rainfall was recorded across large parts of southern Australia, with areas of severe deficiency in central New South Wales, central South Australia and southern parts of Western Australia.
In cropping regions, March 2018 rainfall was close to average in Queensland, northern New South Wales and Western Australia. It was well below average in southern New South Wales, and below average in parts of Victoria and South Australia.
Rainfall percentiles for March 2018
Source: Bureau of Meteorology
Note: Rainfall for March 2018 is compared with rainfall recorded for that period during the historical record (1900 to present). For further information, go to Australian Water Availability Project
Monthly soil moisture
Relative upper layer soil moisture for March 2018 was extremely high across central and northern Queensland, and south-eastern parts of the Northern Territory. It was extremely low in central New South Wales and across the southern half of South Australia. Upper layer soil moisture was close to average across the remainder of the country. The pattern of relative upper layer soil moisture reflects March 2018 rainfall.
Upper layer soil moisture was close to average in all cropping regions, except southern New South Wales and parts of Victoria where it was well below average.
Modelling upper layer soil moisture for March 2018
Source: Bureau of Meteorology (Australian Water Resources Assessment Landscape model)
Note: This map shows the levels of modelled upper layer soil moisture (0 to 10 centimetres) during March 2018. This map shows how modelled soil conditions during March 2018 compare with March conditions modelled over the reference period (1911 to 2015). Dark blue areas on the maps were much wetter in March 2018 than during the same period over the reference period. The dark red areas were much drier than during the reference period. The bulk of plant roots occur in the top 20 centimetres of the soil profile. Soil moisture in the upper layer of the soil profile is therefore the most appropriate indicator of the availability of water, particularly for germinating plants. The lower layer soil moisture is a larger, deeper store that is slower to respond to rainfall and tends to reflect accumulated rainfall events over longer time periods.
Relative lower layer soil moisture for March 2018 was extremely low in south-eastern Australia. It was extremely high in northern and south-eastern Queensland, south-eastern parts of the Northern Territory, and south-eastern parts of Western Australia.
In cropping regions, lower layer soil moisture was above average in Queensland and eastern parts of Western Australia. It was extremely low in southern parts of New South Wales, Victoria and eastern South Australia. Lower layer soil moisture close to average in northern New South Wales, western South Australia and Western Australia cropping regions.
Modelling lower layer soil moisture for March 2018
Source: Bureau of Meteorology (Australian Water Resources Assessment Landscape model)
Note: This map shows the levels of modelled lower layer soil moisture (10 centimetres to 1 metre) during March 2018. This map shows how modelled soil conditions during March 2018 compare with March conditions modelled over the reference period (1911 to 2015). Dark blue areas on the maps were much wetter in March 2018 than during the same period over the reference period. The dark red areas were much drier than during the reference period. The bulk of plant roots occur in the top 20 centimetres of the soil profile. Soil moisture in the upper layer of the soil profile is therefore the most appropriate indicator of the availability of water, particularly for germinating plants. The lower layer soil moisture is a larger, deeper store that is slower to respond to rainfall and tends to reflect accumulated rainfall events over longer time periods.
Rainfall deficiencies
Compared to the 11-month period (April 2017 to February 2018) presented in the previous Drought Statement, deficiencies have decreased in inland and western Queensland, and decreased slightly on the east coast of New South Wales between the Manning and Illawarra districts
Heavy rainfall associated with tropical cyclone Nora toward the end of the month caused flooding, but did help to ease longer-term rainfall deficiencies in Queensland. In contrast, south-eastern Australia has had a very dry start to the year. This has resulted in some expansion of deficiencies in South Australia, and central New South Wales for the 12-month period 1 April to 31 March 2018 (Bureau of Meteorology ‘Drought Statement’, 5 April 2018).
Rainfall deficiencies for the 12-month period 1 April to 31 March 2018
Source: ©Commonwealth of Australia 2018, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 04/04/2018
Rainfall forecast for the next 8 days
During the next eight days, little to no rainfall is expected across most of mainland Australia. Rainfall totals between 25 and 50 millimetres are forecast along Queensland’s east coast, the Cape York Peninsula and parts of the Northern Territory’s Top End. Similar totals are predicted for western Tasmania.
This rainfall forecast is produced from computer models. As it contains no input from weather forecasters, it is important to check local forecasts and warnings issued by the Bureau of Meteorology.
Total forecast rainfall (mm) for the period 5 to 12 April 2018
Source: ©Commonwealth of Australia 2018, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 5/04/2018
Water
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Water availability
Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) decreased during the week ending 5 April 2018 by 174 gigalitres (GL) to 11,569 GL and are at 51 per cent of total capacity. This is 17 percentage points or 3,743 GL less than at the same time last year.
Visit the interactive Tableau data dashboard
Water storages in the Murray-Darling Basin (NSW, Victoria and Queensland)
Information on water available in dams used for irrigation the Murray–Darling Basin from 1 January 2001 to 5 April 2018 is shown above. The top horizontal (short dash) line indicates the storage level during a similar time last year. The bottom horizontal (long dash) line indicates the amount of ‘dead’ or unusable storage.
Water storages
Changes in regional water storage for March 2018 and the previous 12 months are summarised in the table and graph below (current at 5 April 2018).
Region |
Total capacity |
Current volume |
Current volume |
Monthly change |
Monthly change |
Annual change |
Annual change |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
(GL) |
(GL) |
(%) |
(GL) |
(%) |
(GL) |
(%) |
Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) |
22,559 |
11,569 |
51 |
–876 |
–4 |
–3,743 |
–17 |
Murray–Darling Basin Authority (MDBA) controlled storages |
9,352 |
5,059 |
54 |
–463 |
–5 |
–996 |
–11 |
Queensland MDB |
186 |
140 |
75 |
–5 |
–3 |
–38 |
–20 |
Central Queensland |
3,154 |
3,154 |
100 |
–117 |
–4 |
120 |
4 |
South–east Queensland |
3,517 |
2,152 |
61 |
–64 |
–2 |
–302 |
–9 |
New South Wales MDB |
13,884 |
5,232 |
38 |
–591 |
–4 |
–3,727 |
–27 |
Coastal New South Wales |
1,074 |
806 |
75 |
0 |
0 |
–149 |
–14 |
Victoria MDB |
8,488 |
6,198 |
73 |
–280 |
–3 |
21 |
0 |
State water storages in the Murray–Darling Basin (NSW, Victoria and Queensland)
Water allocations
The current water allocations for the 2017–18 water trading season for licence holders in New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia water systems are summarised in the following table and charts.
On 3 April 2018 the Resource Manager for Northern Victoria announced seasonal determination increases of:
- 1 per cent for Victoria Campaspe low reliability to 59 per cent.
Allocations at |
5 April 2018 |
15 March 2018 |
||
---|---|---|---|---|
New South Wales |
General security |
High security |
General security |
High security |
NSW Murray |
51% |
97% |
51% |
97% |
NSW Murrumbidgee |
38% |
95% |
38% |
95% |
NSW Lower Darling |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
NSW Macquarie and Cudgegong |
38% |
100% |
38% |
100% |
NSW Hunter |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
NSW Lachlan |
2% |
100% |
2% |
100% |
NSW Lower Namoi |
7% |
100% |
7% |
100% |
NSW Upper Namoi |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
NSW Gwydir |
18% |
100% |
18% |
100% |
NSW Border Rivers |
100%(a)/19.62%(b) |
100% |
100%(a)/19.62%(b) |
100% |
NSW Peel |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
Victoria |
Low reliability |
High reliability |
Low reliability |
High reliability |
Victoria Murray |
0% |
100% |
0% |
100% |
Victoria Goulburn |
0% |
100% |
0% |
100% |
Victoria Campaspe |
59% |
100% |
58% |
100% |
Victoria Loddon |
0% |
100% |
0% |
100% |
Victoria Bullarook |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
Victoria Broken |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
South Australia |
|
Class 3a/3b |
|
Class 3a/3b |
South Australia Murray |
|
100% |
|
100% |
Select water allocation percentages in the southern Murray-Darling Basin
Water markets
Allocation prices in the southern Murray–Darling Basin remained the same in the week ending 5 April 2018 at $124 per ML. This is an increase of $2 from the same time last week. This contrasts with an average price of $117 in March across the whole southern MDB, and $42 during the same month last year.
Allocation trade activity in the southern Murray–Darling Basin
The trades shown reflect estimated market activity and do not encompass all register trades. The price line reflects locally fitted price values for the entire southern Murray–Darling Basin. Data shown is current until 5 April 2018. Trade activity is shown as colour density.
|
Southern MDB |
Victoria Goulburn |
SA Murray |
NSW Murrumbidgee |
Victoria Murray |
NSW Murray |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Current week: 30/03/18 – 05/04/18 |
$124.08 |
$114.71 |
$123.03 |
$154.53 |
$132.80 |
$131.07 |
Last week: 23/03/18 – 29/03/18 |
$122.13 |
$110.01 |
$106.24 |
$158.15 |
$130.51 |
$127.17 |
March 2018 |
$116.98 |
$101.26 |
$106.56 |
$150.67 |
$122.36 |
$115.07 |
March 2017 |
$41.53 |
$44.63 |
$44.80 |
$17.66 |
$45.96 |
$41.03 |
Commodities
Current indicators – 5 April 2018
Indicator | Week ended | Unit | Latest price | Price week prior | Weekly change | Price 12 months prior | Year on year change | Chart |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Selected world indicator prices |
||||||||
Australian Dollar – AUD/USD Exchange Rate | 04-Apr | US$/A$ | 0.77 | 0.77 | 0% | 0.76 | 1%![]() |
chart |
Wheat – US no. 2 hard red winter wheat, fob Gulf | 03-Apr | US$/t | 233 | 234 | <1%![]() |
191 | 22%![]() |
chart |
Coarse Grains – US no. 2 yellow corn, fob Gulf | 04-Apr | US$/t | 172 | 170 | 1%![]() |
157 | 10%![]() |
chart |
Canola – Rapeseed, Europe, fob Hamburga | 03-Apr | US$/t | 425 | 426 | <1%![]() |
430 | -1%![]() |
chart |
Cotton – Cotlook 'A' Index | 04-Apr | USc/lb | 90.8 | 91.4 | <1%![]() |
86.3 | 5%![]() |
chart |
Sugar – Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, no.11 contract | 04-Apr | USc/lb | 12.4 | 12.5 | <1%![]() |
16.5 | -25%![]() |
chart |
Wool – Eastern Market Indicator | 29-Mar | Ac/kg clean | 1,772 | 1,778 | <1%![]() |
1,502 | 18%![]() |
chart |
Wool – Western Market Indicator | 23-Mar | Ac/kg clean | 1,869 | 1,834 | 2%![]() |
1,534 | 22%![]() |
chart |
Selected domestic crop indicator prices |
||||||||
Milling Wheat – ASW1, track quote, Port Adelaide, SA | 03-Apr | A$/t | 244 | 240 | 2%![]() |
180 | 36%![]() |
chart |
Feed Wheat – General purpose, Sydney, NSW | 04-Apr | A$/t | 278 | 278 | 0% | 206 | 35%![]() |
chart |
Feed Barley – Sydney, NSW | 04-Apr | A$/t | 279 | 279 | 0% | 190 | 47%![]() |
chart |
Canola – Portland, Vic. | 02-Apr | A$/t | 492 | 492 | 0% | 497 | -1%![]() |
chart |
Grain Sorghum – Sydney, NSW | 04-Apr | A$/t | 350 | 350 | 0% | 244 | 43%![]() |
chart |
Selected domestic livestock indicator prices |
||||||||
Beef – Eastern Young Cattle Indicator | 29-Mar | Ac/kg cwt | 540 | 544 | <1%![]() |
650 | -17%![]() |
chart |
Mutton – Mutton indicator (18-24 kg fat score 2-3), Vic | 23-Mar | Ac/kg cwt | 455 | 421 | 8%![]() |
467 | -3%![]() |
chart |
Lamb – Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator | 29-Mar | Ac/kg cwt | 615 | 619 | <1%![]() |
654 | -6%![]() |
chart |
Pig – Eastern Seaboard (60.1-75 kg), average of buyers & sellers | 23-Mar | Ac/kg cwt | 270 | 273 | -1%![]() |
318 | -15%![]() |
chart |
Goat – Eastern States (12.1-16 kg) | 26-Mar | Ac/kg cwt | 472 | 468 | <1%![]() |
651 | -27%![]() |
chart |
Live cattle – Light steers ex Darwin to Indonesia | 31-Mar | Ac/kg lwt | 310 | 310 | 0% | 340 | -9%![]() |
chart |
Live sheep – Live wether (Muchea WA saleyard) to Middle East | 26-Mar | $/head | 129 | 121 | 7%![]() |
113 | 14%![]() |
chart |
Global Dairy Trade weighted average pricesa |
||||||||
Dairy – Whole milk powder | 03-Apr | US$/t | 3,278 | 3,226 | 2%![]() |
2,924 | 12%![]() |
chart |
Dairy – Skim milk powder | 03-Apr | US$/t | 1,849 | 1,887 | -2%![]() |
1,913 | -3%![]() |
chart |
Dairy – Cheddar cheese | 03-Apr | US$/t | 3,679 | 3,609 | 2%![]() |
3,288 | 12%![]() |
chart |
Dairy – Anhydrous milk fat | 03-Apr | US$/t | 5,806 | 6,249 | -7%![]() |
5,936 | -2%![]() |
chart |
a Global Dairy Trade prices are updated twice monthly on the first and third Tuesday of each month.
Movements in selected fruit and vegetable prices
Data attribution