Weekly update - 5 April 2018

During the week ending 4 April 2018 rainfall was mainly recorded in western and northern Australia, western Tasmania and along Australia’s north-east coast. Little to no rainfall was received across the remainder of the country. Rainfall totals between 15 and 50 millimetres were recorded in central and northern parts of Western Australia and the Northern Territory. Similar totals were recorded in coastal, south-western and northern parts of Queensland, and in western Tasmania. Higher totals (exceeding 100 millimetres) were recorded between Mackay and Townsville (associated with the reformation of Tropical Cyclone Iris) and in parts of the Cape York Peninsula. The highest recorded weekly total was 468 millimetres at Macknade Sugar Mill, north of Townsville.

Rainfall - week ending 4 April 2018

©Commonwealth of Australia 2018, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 4/04/2018

Note: The rainfall analyses and associated maps utilise data contained in the Bureau of Meteorology climate database, the Australian Data Archive for Meteorology (ADAM). The analyses are initially produced automatically from real-time data with limited quality control. They are intended to provide a general overview of rainfall across Australia as quickly as possible after the observations are received. For further information go to Weekly Rainfall Update.

For the week ending 3 April 2018, maximum temperatures were between 2°C and 4°C above average across most of mainland Australia. Higher anomalies (6°C to 8°C above average) were observed in south-western Queensland, and central and northern parts of New South Wales. Minimum temperatures were between 2°C and 4°C above average in Queensland and central parts of Western Australia and the Northern Territory. They were close to average for the rest of the country.

Maximum temperature anomalies - week ending 3 April 2018

©Commonwealth of Australia 2018, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 3/04/2018

Minimum temperature anomalies - week ending 3 April 2018

©Commonwealth of Australia 2018, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 3/04/2018

Note: Spatial temperature analyses are based on historical weekly temperature data provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. These temperature anomaly maps show the departure of the maximum and minimum temperatures from their long-term averages. Temperature anomalies are calculated using high-resolution gridded datasets from 1911 onwards. For further information go to Daily maximum temperature for Australia.

For Australia as a whole, rainfall during March 2018 was close to average. However, there was high degree of variability across the country. Extremely high rainfall was observed in northern and eastern Queensland and southern parts of the Northern Territory. Parts of Tasmania and the mid-north coast of New South Wales also received extremely high rainfall. Below average rainfall was recorded across large parts of southern Australia, with areas of severe deficiency in central New South Wales, central South Australia and southern parts of Western Australia.

In cropping regions, March 2018 rainfall was close to average in Queensland, northern New South Wales and Western Australia. It was well below average in southern New South Wales, and below average in parts of Victoria and South Australia.

Rainfall percentiles for March 2018

Source: Bureau of Meteorology
Note: Rainfall for March 2018 is compared with rainfall recorded for that period during the historical record (1900 to present). For further information, go to Australian Water Availability Project

Relative upper layer soil moisture for March 2018 was extremely high across central and northern Queensland, and south-eastern parts of the Northern Territory. It was extremely low in central New South Wales and across the southern half of South Australia. Upper layer soil moisture was close to average across the remainder of the country. The pattern of relative upper layer soil moisture reflects March 2018 rainfall.

Upper layer soil moisture was close to average in all cropping regions, except southern New South Wales and parts of Victoria where it was well below average.

Modelling upper layer soil moisture for March 2018

Source: Bureau of Meteorology (Australian Water Resources Assessment Landscape model)
Note: This map shows the levels of modelled upper layer soil moisture (0 to 10 centimetres) during March 2018. This map shows how modelled soil conditions during March 2018 compare with March conditions modelled over the reference period (1911 to 2015). Dark blue areas on the maps were much wetter in March 2018 than during the same period over the reference period. The dark red areas were much drier than during the reference period. The bulk of plant roots occur in the top 20 centimetres of the soil profile. Soil moisture in the upper layer of the soil profile is therefore the most appropriate indicator of the availability of water, particularly for germinating plants. The lower layer soil moisture is a larger, deeper store that is slower to respond to rainfall and tends to reflect accumulated rainfall events over longer time periods.

Relative lower layer soil moisture for March 2018 was extremely low in south-eastern Australia. It was extremely high in northern and south-eastern Queensland, south-eastern parts of the Northern Territory, and south-eastern parts of Western Australia.

In cropping regions, lower layer soil moisture was above average in Queensland and eastern parts of Western Australia. It was extremely low in southern parts of New South Wales, Victoria and eastern South Australia. Lower layer soil moisture close to average in northern New South Wales, western South Australia and Western Australia cropping regions.

Modelling lower layer soil moisture for March 2018

Source: Bureau of Meteorology (Australian Water Resources Assessment Landscape model)
Note: This map shows the levels of modelled lower layer soil moisture (10 centimetres to 1 metre) during March 2018. This map shows how modelled soil conditions during March 2018 compare with March conditions modelled over the reference period (1911 to 2015). Dark blue areas on the maps were much wetter in March 2018 than during the same period over the reference period. The dark red areas were much drier than during the reference period. The bulk of plant roots occur in the top 20 centimetres of the soil profile. Soil moisture in the upper layer of the soil profile is therefore the most appropriate indicator of the availability of water, particularly for germinating plants. The lower layer soil moisture is a larger, deeper store that is slower to respond to rainfall and tends to reflect accumulated rainfall events over longer time periods.

Compared to the 11-month period (April 2017 to February 2018) presented in the previous Drought Statement, deficiencies have decreased in inland and western Queensland, and decreased slightly on the east coast of New South Wales between the Manning and Illawarra districts

Heavy rainfall associated with tropical cyclone No​ra toward the end of the month caused flooding, but did help to ease longer-term rainfall deficiencies in Queensland. In contrast, south-eastern Australia has had a very dry start to the year. This has resulted in some expansion of deficiencies in South Australia, and central New South Wales for the 12-month period 1 April to 31 March 2018 (Bureau of Meteorology ‘Drought Statement’, 5 April 2018).

Rainfall deficiencies for the 12-month period 1 April to 31 March 2018

Source: ©Commonwealth of Australia 2018, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 04/04/2018

During the next eight days, little to no rainfall is expected across most of mainland Australia. Rainfall totals between 25 and 50 millimetres are forecast along Queensland’s east coast, the Cape York Peninsula and parts of the Northern Territory’s Top End. Similar totals are predicted for western Tasmania.

This rainfall forecast is produced from computer models. As it contains no input from weather forecasters, it is important to check local forecasts and warnings issued by the Bureau of Meteorology.

Total forecast rainfall (mm) for the period 5 to 12 April 2018

Source: ©Commonwealth of Australia 2018, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 5/04/2018

Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) decreased during the week ending 5 April 2018 by 174 gigalitres (GL) to 11,569 GL and are at 51 per cent of total capacity. This is 17 percentage points or 3,743 GL less than at the same time last year.

Visit the interactive Tableau data dashboard

Water storages in the Murray-Darling Basin (NSW, Victoria and Queensland)

Information on water available in dams used for irrigation the Murray–Darling Basin from 1 January 2001 to 5 April 2018 is shown above. The top horizontal (short dash) line indicates the storage level during a similar time last year. The bottom horizontal (long dash) line indicates the amount of ‘dead’ or unusable storage.

Changes in regional water storage for March 2018 and the previous 12 months are summarised in the table and graph below (current at 5 April 2018).

State water storages in the Murray–Darling Basin (NSW, Victoria and Queensland)

The current water allocations for the 2017–18 water trading season for licence holders in New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia water systems are summarised in the following table and charts.

On  3 April 2018 the Resource Manager for Northern Victoria announced seasonal determination increases of:

• 1 per cent for Victoria Campaspe low reliability to 59 per cent.

Select water allocation percentages in the southern Murray-Darling Basin

Allocation prices in the southern Murray–Darling Basin remained the same in the week ending 5 April 2018 at $124 per ML. This is an increase of $2 from the same time last week. This contrasts with an average price of $117 in March across the whole southern MDB, and $42 during the same month last year.

Allocation trade activity in the southern Murray–Darling Basin

The trades shown reflect estimated market activity and do not encompass all register trades. The price line reflects locally fitted price values for the entire southern Murray–Darling Basin. Data shown is current until 5 April 2018. Trade activity is shown as colour density.

Indicator	Week ended	Unit	Latest price	Price week prior	Weekly change	Price 12 months prior	Year on year change	Chart
Selected world indicator prices
Australian Dollar – AUD/USD Exchange Rate	04-Apr	US$/A$	0.77	0.77	0%	0.76	1%	chart
Wheat – US no. 2 hard red winter wheat, fob Gulf	03-Apr	US$/t	233	234	<1%	191	22%	chart
Coarse Grains – US no. 2 yellow corn, fob Gulf	04-Apr	US$/t	172	170	1%	157	10%	chart
Canola – Rapeseed, Europe, fob Hamburga	03-Apr	US$/t	425	426	<1%	430	-1%	chart
Cotton – Cotlook 'A' Index	04-Apr	USc/lb	90.8	91.4	<1%	86.3	5%	chart
Sugar – Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, no.11 contract	04-Apr	USc/lb	12.4	12.5	<1%	16.5	-25%	chart
Wool – Eastern Market Indicator	29-Mar	Ac/kg clean	1,772	1,778	<1%	1,502	18%	chart
Wool – Western Market Indicator	23-Mar	Ac/kg clean	1,869	1,834	2%	1,534	22%	chart
Selected domestic crop indicator prices
Milling Wheat – ASW1, track quote, Port Adelaide, SA	03-Apr	A$/t	244	240	2%	180	36%	chart
Feed Wheat – General purpose, Sydney, NSW	04-Apr	A$/t	278	278	0%	206	35%	chart
Feed Barley – Sydney, NSW	04-Apr	A$/t	279	279	0%	190	47%	chart
Canola – Portland, Vic.	02-Apr	A$/t	492	492	0%	497	-1%	chart
Grain Sorghum – Sydney, NSW	04-Apr	A$/t	350	350	0%	244	43%	chart
Selected domestic livestock indicator prices
Beef – Eastern Young Cattle Indicator	29-Mar	Ac/kg cwt	540	544	<1%	650	-17%	chart
Mutton – Mutton indicator (18-24 kg fat score 2-3), Vic	23-Mar	Ac/kg cwt	455	421	8%	467	-3%	chart
Lamb – Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator	29-Mar	Ac/kg cwt	615	619	<1%	654	-6%	chart
Pig – Eastern Seaboard (60.1-75 kg), average of buyers & sellers	23-Mar	Ac/kg cwt	270	273	-1%	318	-15%	chart
Goat – Eastern States (12.1-16 kg)	26-Mar	Ac/kg cwt	472	468	<1%	651	-27%	chart
Live cattle – Light steers ex Darwin to Indonesia	31-Mar	Ac/kg lwt	310	310	0%	340	-9%	chart
Live sheep – Live wether (Muchea WA saleyard) to Middle East	26-Mar	$/head	129	121	7%	113	14%	chart
Global Dairy Trade weighted average pricesa
Dairy – Whole milk powder	03-Apr	US$/t	3,278	3,226	2%	2,924	12%	chart
Dairy – Skim milk powder	03-Apr	US$/t	1,849	1,887	-2%	1,913	-3%	chart
Dairy – Cheddar cheese	03-Apr	US$/t	3,679	3,609	2%	3,288	12%	chart
Dairy – Anhydrous milk fat	03-Apr	US$/t	5,806	6,249	-7%	5,936	-2%	chart

^a Global Dairy Trade prices are updated twice monthly on the first and third Tuesday of each month.

Movements in selected fruit and vegetable prices
Data attribution