Weekly update - 7 May 2020

During the week ending 6 May 2020 rainfall was largely restricted to parts of south-eastern and south-western Australia. Rainfall between 10 and 50 millimetres was recorded across much of New South Wales, Victoria and Tasmania, and parts of far northern Queensland, south-eastern South Australia and the south-west of Western Australia. Rainfall in excess of 50 millimetres was recorded across parts of south-eastern New South Wales, eastern Victoria and western Tasmania.

In Australia’s cropping regions, rainfall totals of between 10 and 50 millimetres were recorded across much of New South Wales, Victoria, South Australia and parts of southern Western Australia. Rainfall totals greater than 50 millimetres were recorded across cropping regions in parts of central and south-eastern New South Wales. Little to no rainfall was recorded across cropping regions in Queensland and remaining regions in northern New South Wales and Western Australia during the week ending 6 May 2020.

Sustained high rainfall totals across cropping regions in New South Wales and Victoria during autumn-to-date have filled soil moisture profile across numerous regions and supported widespread planting and establishment of winter crops, and boosted pasture availability. Similarly, cropping regions in South Australia have been recording well above average rainfall totals during April, replenishing soil moisture profiles and encouraging planting.

Rainfall for the week ending 6 May 2020

©Commonwealth of Australia 2020, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 06/05/2020

Note: The rainfall analyses and associated maps utilise data contained in the Bureau of Meteorology climate database, the Australian Data Archive for Meteorology (ADAM). The analyses are initially produced automatically from real-time data with limited quality control. They are intended to provide a general overview of rainfall across Australia as quickly as possible after the observations are received. For further information go to http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/rainfall/

April 2020 was Australia’s fifth warmest April on record, with a national mean temperature of 1.64°C above average and mean minimum temperature of 1.63°C above average.

Maximum and minimum temperatures for April were generally above average to very much above average across much of northern and western Australia. In contrast, maximum temperatures for April across parts of south-eastern Australia were below average to very much below average. Below average or average temperatures in south-eastern Australia have increased the effectiveness of April rainfall, through a reduction in potential evapotranspiration rates. This in turn has benefitted the germination and establishment of pasture and recently sown winter crops.

Maximum temperature deciles for April 2020

©Commonwealth of Australia 2020, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 01/05/2020

Minimum temperature deciles for April 2020

©Commonwealth of Australia 2020, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 01/05/2020

Note: Maximum and minimum temperatures for March 2020 compared with temperature recorded for that period during the historical record (1900 to present). For further information go to: http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/temp/index.jsp.

April 2020 rainfall was above average across much of south-eastern Australia. Well above average to extremely high rainfall was recorded across much of New South Wales, Victoria, eastern and central South Australia, Tasmania and isolated parts of south-western Queensland, northern Western Australia and north of the Northern Territory. This rainfall has benefited plant growth, soil moisture levels, stream flows and water storage levels.

In contrast, April rainfall was extremely low to below average across parts of the north-eastern New South Wales and much of eastern Queensland and the south-west of Western Australia.

April 2020 rainfall totals were above average to extremely high for cropping regions in New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia. The substantial rainfall recorded in cropping regions across much of New South Wales and Victoria during April further improved soil moisture profiles to levels sufficient to sustain crop, and pasture growth initiated by March rainfall and encourage further planting. Cropping regions in South Australia also received rainfall in early April that was followed-up by significant falls at the end of the month, increasing producer confidence for widespread winter crop planting. April 2020 rainfall was below average across most cropping regions in Queensland and Western Australia.  

Rainfall percentiles for April 2020

Source: Bureau of Meteorology

Note: Rainfall for April 2020 is compared with rainfall recorded for that period during the historical record (1900 to present). For further information, go to http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/

Upper layer soil moisture in April 2020 was average to above average for this time of year, across much of Australia. It was above average to very much above average across much of New South Wales, Victoria, central and eastern South Australia, Tasmania and parts of south-western Queensland, northern Western Australia and the north of the Northern Territory. Soil moisture was below average across parts of eastern Queensland and the south-west of Western Australia.

In cropping regions, upper layer soil moisture was above average to very much above average across New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia. Relative soil moisture was below average to average across cropping regions in Queensland and Western Australia.

Modelled upper layer soil moisture for April 2020

Source: Bureau of Meteorology (Australian Water Resources Assessment Landscape model)

Note: This map shows the levels of modelled upper layer soil moisture (0 to 10 centimetres) during April 2020. This map shows how modelled soil conditions during April 2020 compare with April conditions modelled over the reference period (1911 to 2016). Dark blue areas on the maps were much wetter in April 2020 than during the reference period. The dark red areas were much drier than during the reference period. The bulk of plant roots occur in the top 20 centimetres of the soil profile. Soil moisture in the upper layer of the soil profile is therefore useful indicator of the availability of water, particularly for germinating seed.

Lower layer soil moisture for April 2020 was mixed across Australia for this time of year. It was above average to very much above average across much of New South Wales, Victoria, Tasmania and parts of southern Queensland and central and north-eastern South Australia. Lower layer soil moisture was below average across parts of central Queensland, and southern and central Western Australia.

In cropping regions, lower layer soil moisture was above average to very much above average for New South Wales, much of Victoria and parts of southern Queensland and eastern South Australia. Relative soil moisture was below average across northern Queensland cropping regions and much of Western Australia.

Modelled lower layer soil moisture for April 2020

Source: Bureau of Meteorology (Australian Water Resources Assessment Landscape model)

Note: This map shows the levels of modelled lower layer soil moisture (10 to 100 centimetres) during April 2020. This map shows how modelled soil conditions during April 2020 compare with November conditions modelled over the reference period (1911 to 2016). Dark blue areas on the maps were much wetter in April 2020 than during the reference period. The dark red areas were much drier than during the reference period. The bulk of plant roots occur in the top 20 centimetres of the soil profile. The lower layer soil moisture is a larger, deeper store that is slower to respond to rainfall and tends to reflect accumulated rainfall events over longer time periods.

The 2019–20 wet season in northern Australia (October 2019 to April 2020) was drier and warmer than average. The northern wet season rainfall was 19% below average and the mean maximum temperature was the highest on record, at 2.11°C above the 1961–90 average. This follows similar conditions during the 2018–19 northern wet season.

The prolonged positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) that persisted in the second half of 2019 provided conditions that were favourable for above average rainfall in the western Indian Ocean and for below average rainfall near Australia. This likely influenced the late withdrawal of the Indian monsoon and the 3‑4 week delay to the Australian monsoon onset. The initial monsoon onset activity and subsequent bursts across northern Australia during this wet season were relatively weak and short-lived. Additionally, tropical low and cyclone activity across northern Australia during the 2019–20 wet season was below average.

These conditions led to average to below average rainfall across northern Australia during the 2019–20 wet season. During the northern wet season there is typically substantial pasture growth and water recharge in northern Australia, however the hot and dry conditions during the 2019–20 wet season led to below average pasture growth across large areas of tropical northern Australia.

Rainfall deciles for the northern wet season (October 2019 to April 2020)

Source: Bureau of Meteorology

Note: Rainfall for the northern wet season (October 2019 to April 2020) is compared with rainfall recorded for that period during the historical record (1900 to present). For further information, go to http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/

The persistence of a broad high pressure system over southern Australia is expected to limit rainfall over the next eight days. Rainfall totals of between 10 and 50 millimetres are forecast for isolated parts of south-eastern Australia and north-eastern Queensland. Falls in excess of 50 millimetres are forecast across western Tasmania.

In cropping regions, rainfall of between 10 and 25 millimetres is expected across small areas of southern Victoria and far southern areas of South Australia. Little to no rainfall is expected across cropping regions in New South Wales, Queensland, Western Australia and remaining cropping regions in Victoria and South Australia during the next eight days.

Total forecast rainfall (mm) for the period 7 May 2020 to 14 May 2020

©Commonwealth of Australia 2020, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 07/05/2020

Note: This rainfall forecast is produced from computer models. As the model outputs are not altered by weather forecasters, it is important to check local forecasts and warnings issued by the Bureau of Meteorology.

Indicator	Week ended	Unit	Latest price	Price week prior	Weekly change	Price 12 months prior	Year on year change	Chart
Selected World Indicator Prices
Australian Dollar – AUD/USD Exchange Rate	06-May	US$/A$	0.64	0.64	0%	0.7	-9%	chart
Wheat – US no. 2 hard red winter wheat, fob Gulf	05-May	US$/t	230	230	0%	202	14%	chart
Coarse Grains – US no. 2 yellow corn, fob Gulf	06-May	US$/t	147	147	0%	163	-10%	chart
Canola – Rapeseed, Canada, fob Vancouver	06-May	US$/t	357	350	2%	345	-3%	chart
Cotton – Cotlook 'A' Index	07-May	USc/lb	65.0	65.3	<1%	84.3	-23%	chart
Sugar – Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, no.11 contract	07-May	USc/lb	10.2	9.6	6%	12.1	-16%	chart
Wool – Eastern Market Indicator	30-Apr	Ac/kg clean	1,225	1,272	-4%	1,960	-38%	chart
Wool – Western Market Indicator	23-Apr	Ac/kg clean	1,310	1,370	-4%	2,064	-37%	chart
Selected domestic crop indicator prices
Milling Wheat – ASW1, track quote, Port Adelaide, SA	05-May	A$/t	390	420	-7%	273	43%	chart
Feed Wheat – General purpose, Sydney, NSW	05-May	A$/t	433	448	-3%	386	12%	chart
Feed Barley – Sydney, NSW	05-May	A$/t	360	363	<1%	379	-5%	chart
Grain Sorghum – Sydney, NSW	31-Mar	A$/t	404	394	3%	432	-6%	chart
Selected domestic livestock indicator prices
Beef – Eastern Young Cattle Indicator b	19-Mar	Ac/kg cwt	742	766	-3%	441	68%	chart
Mutton – Mutton indicator (18–24 kg fat score 2–3), Vic b	19-Mar	Ac/kg cwt	718	761	-6%	411	75%	chart
Lamb – Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator b	19-Mar	Ac/kg cwt	941	960	-2%	647	45%	chart
Pig – Eastern Seaboard (60.1–75 kg), average of buyers & sellers	24-Apr	Ac/kg cwt	352	359	-2%	338	4%	chart
Goat – Eastern States (12.1–16 kg)	04-May	Ac/kg cwt	820	820	0%	680	21%	chart
Live cattle – Light steers ex Darwin to Indonesia	02-May	Ac/kg lwt	280	280	0%	280	0%	chart
Live sheep – Live wether (Muchea WA saleyard) to Middle East	09-Dec	$/head	105	140	-25%	108	-3%	chart
Global Dairy Trade (GDT) weighted average prices a
Dairy – Whole milk powder	05-May	US$/t	2,745	2,707	1%	3,249	-16%	chart
Dairy – Skim milk powder	05-May	US$/t	2,373	2,380	<1%	2,521	-6%	chart
Dairy – Cheddar cheese	05-May	US$/t	4,115	4,480	-8%	4,217	-2%	chart
Dairy – Anhydrous milk fat	05-May	US$/t	3,973	4,083	-3%	6,217	-36%	chart

^a Global Dairy Trade prices are updated twice monthly on the first and third Tuesday of each month.
^b Note that several indicator price series for livestock are temporarily suspended. More information and temporary replacement series can be found at https://www.mla.com.au/prices-markets/market-news/changes-to-mlas-market-reporting/

Selected world indicator prices
Selected domestic crop indicator prices
Selected domestic livestock indicator prices
Global dairy trade weighted average prices
Movements in selected fruit and vegetable prices
Data attribution