Weekly update - 7 December 2017

During the week ending 6 December 2017 rainfall totals above 25 millimetres were recorded across large areas of all states and territories, although there was little to no rainfall in most of inland Western Australia. The combination of a low pressure system and upper level trough brought widespread thunderstorms extending from north-western to south-eastern Australia.

Totals in excess of 150 millimetres were recorded in parts of north-eastern Victoria, south-eastern New South Wales and south-eastern Queensland. Similar totals were observed in parts of far northern Queensland and northern parts of Western Australia and the Northern Territory. Parts of southern New South Wales and northern Victoria have already recorded twice the average rainfall for the month of December. The highest recorded weekly total was 253 millimetres at Pacific Haven, near Bundaberg in Queensland.

Rainfall - week ending 6 December 2017

 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2017, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 6/12/2017

Note: The rainfall analyses and associated maps utilise data contained in the Bureau of Meteorology climate database, the Australian Data Archive for Meteorology (ADAM). The analyses are initially produced automatically from real-time data with limited quality control. They are intended to provide a general overview of rainfall across Australia as quickly as possible after the observations are received. For further information go to Weekly Rainfall Update.

Rainfall percentages, 1 to 6 December 2017

 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2017, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 6/12/2017

Note: This map compares the rainfall received since the start of the current month with the long-term average for the entire month.

Following three weeks of unseasonal warmth across southern Australia, maximum temperatures were below average during the week ending 5 December 2017. They ranged from -2°C to -6°C below average in southern Queensland, eastern Western Australia, southern parts of the Northern Territory and across most of New South Wales and South Australia. For the reminder of Australia maximum temperatures were close to average. Minimum temperatures were generally close to average for most of the country, although they were above average (2°C to 4°C) in the southern half of New South Wales and all of Victoria and Tasmania.

Maximum temperature anomalies - week ending 5 December 2017

 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2017, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 5/12/2017

Minimum temperature anomalies - week ending 5 December 2017

 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2017, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 5/12/2017

Note: Spatial temperature analyses are based on historical weekly temperature data provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. These temperature anomaly maps show the departure of the maximum and minimum temperatures from their long-term averages. Temperature anomalies are calculated using high-resolution gridded datasets from 1911 onwards. For further information go to Daily maximum temperature for Australia.

Rainfall during November 2017 was above average for Australia as a whole. Monthly totals were well above average for most of the Northern Territory and South Australia. Rainfall was also above average in adjacent parts of bordering states; in the Kimberley and south-eastern Western Australia, parts of the Gulf Country and western Queensland. Rainfall was generally close to average for the remainder of the country, except Tasmania where rainfall was extremely low to severely deficient.

In cropping regions, November 2017 rainfall was close to average in New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia. It was above average in Victoria and South Australia.

Rainfall percentiles for November 2017

 

Source: Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 5/12/2017

Note: Rainfall for November 2017 is compared with rainfall recorded for that period during the historical record (1900 to present). For further information, go to Australian Water Availability Project

Relative upper layer soil moisture for November 2017 was extremely high in most of the Northern Territory and South Australia. Across the remainder of Australia it was close to average, except Tasmania where it was well below average to extremely low. The pattern of relative upper layer soil moisture reflects November 2017 rainfall.

In cropping regions upper layer soil moisture was close to average in Queensland, New South Wales, Victoria, eastern South Australia and Western Australia. It was well above average on the Eyre Peninsula in South Australia.

Modelling upper layer soil moisture for November 2017

 

Source: Bureau of Meteorology (Australian Water Resources Assessment Landscape model)

Note: This map shows the levels of modelled upper layer soil moisture (0 to 10 centimetres) during November 2017. This map shows how modelled soil conditions during November 2017 compare with November conditions modelled over the reference period (1911 to 2015). Dark blue areas on the maps were much wetter in November 2017 than during the same period over the reference period. The dark red areas were much drier than during the reference period. The bulk of plant roots occur in the top 20 centimetres of the soil profile. Soil moisture in the upper layer of the soil profile is therefore the most appropriate indicator of the availability of water, particularly for germinating plants. The lower layer soil moisture is a larger, deeper store that is slower to respond to rainfall and tends to reflect accumulated rainfall events over longer time periods.

Relative lower layer soil moisture for November 2017 was extremely high in central, north-eastern and parts of eastern Australia. For the rest of the country it was close to average, except for isolated areas of extremely low lower layer soil moisture in south-eastern, southern and western Australia.

In cropping regions, lower layer soil moisture was generally close to average in all states, with the exception of well below average soil moisture in parts of the central and western regions of the South Australian cropping zone, and western parts of the Western Australian cropping zone.

Modelling lower layer soil moisture for November 2017

 

Source: Bureau of Meteorology (Australian Water Resources Assessment Landscape model)

Note: This map shows the levels of modelled lower layer soil moisture (10 centimetres to 1 metre) during November 2017. This map shows how modelled soil conditions during November 2017 compare with November conditions modelled over the reference period (1911 to 2015). Dark blue areas on the maps were much wetter in November 2017 than during the same period over the reference period. The dark red areas were much drier than during the reference period. The bulk of plant roots occur in the top 20 centimetres of the soil profile. Soil moisture in the upper layer of the soil profile is therefore the most appropriate indicator of the availability of water, particularly for germinating plants. The lower layer soil moisture is a larger, deeper store that is slower to respond to rainfall and tends to reflect accumulated rainfall events over longer time periods.

Spring 2017 rainfall was generally average to above average for the season as a whole. However, there was a mixture of very dry and very wet periods. September was particularly dry in south-eastern Australia, while October was wetter than average in Queensland and northern New South Wales. November rainfall was close to average in eastern and western Australia but well above average across central Australia.

Spring rainfall in cropping regions was generally average in New South Wales, Victoria, South Australia and Western Australia, and above average in Queensland.

Rainfall percentiles for spring 2017 (1 September to 30 November 2017)

 

Source: Bureau of Meteorology

Note: Rainfall for September to November 2017 is compared with rainfall recorded for that period during the historical record (1900 to present). For further information, go to Australian Water Availability Project

Spring 2017 was the sixth-warmest spring on record. All states and territories except South Australia and the Northern Territory observed mean temperatures for the season in the ten warmest on record. Both maximum and minimum temperatures were above to very much above average over the majority of Australia (Bureau of Meteorology, ‘Australia in spring 2017’, 1 December 2017).

Several periods of heat during September and November contributed to the very warm spring. A series of persistent blocking high pressure systems and troughs were responsible for these extended periods of warm weather. These events are discussed in the Special Climate Statements ‘Exceptional September heat in eastern Australia’ (5 October 2017) and ‘A prolonged warm spell in Tasmania and Victoria’ (4 December 2017) issued by the Bureau of Meteorology.

Maximum temperature deciles for spring 2017

 

Source: ©Commonwealth of Australia 2017, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 3/12/2017

Minimum temperature deciles for spring 2017

 

Source: ©Commonwealth of Australia 2017, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 3/12/2017

Rainfall is mainly expected in isolated parts of eastern, south-eastern and northern Australia during the next eight days. Totals between 10 and 50 millimetres are forecast for north-eastern New South Wales, south-eastern, central and far northern Queensland, and eastern Victoria. Similar totals are predicted in the Kimberley and Pilbara in Western Australia, across the Top End in the Northern Territory, and for most of Tasmania except the north coast. Little to no rainfall is forecast for the rest of the country.

This rainfall forecast is produced from computer models. As it contains no input from weather forecasters, it is important to check local forecasts and warnings issued by the Bureau of Meteorology.

Total forecast rainfall (mm) for the period 7 to 14 December 2017

 

Source: ©Commonwealth of Australia 2017, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 7/12/2017

The Bureau of Meteorology has raised its ENSO Outlook to LA NIÑA, indicating that sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific have reached La Niña levels. Climate models suggest this La Niña will be weak and short-lived, persisting until early autumn 2018.

While La Niña typically brings above average rainfall to eastern Australia during late spring and summer, sea surface temperature patterns in the Indian Ocean and closer to Australia are not typical of a La Niña event, reducing the likelihood of widespread above average summer rainfall. This indicates that during the next three months, climatic conditions in Australia are expected to be largely driven by localised influences such as sea surface temperatures around the Australian coastline, rather than large-scale oceanic drivers such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole (Bureau of Meteorology ‘ENSO Wrap-Up’, 5 December 2017).

Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) increased during the week ending 7 December 2017 by 420 gigalitres (GL) to 15,985 GL and are at 71 per cent of total capacity. This is 16 percentage points or 3,511 GL less than at the same time last year.

Visit the interactive Tableau data dashboard

Water storages in the Murray-Darling Basin (NSW, Victoria and Queensland)

 

Information on water available in dams used for irrigation the Murray–Darling Basin from 1 January 2001 to 7 December 2017 is shown above. The top horizontal (short dash) line indicates the storage level during a similar time last year. The bottom horizontal (long dash) line indicates the amount of ‘dead’ or unusable storage.

Changes in regional water storage for November 2017 and the previous 12 months are summarised in the table and graph below (current at 7 December 2017).

Region	Total capacity	Current volume	Current volume	Monthly change	Monthly change	Annual change	Annual change
	(GL)	(GL)	(%)	(GL)	(%)	(GL)	(%)
Murray–Darling Basin (MDB)	22,559	15,985	71	–58	0	–3,511	–16
Murray–Darling Basin Authority (MDBA) controlled storages	9,352	6,892	74	–99	–1	–1,179	–13
Queensland MDB	186	132	71	–10	–5	–25	–13
Central Queensland	3,154	2,381	75	–38	–1	62	2
South–east Queensland	3,517	2,244	64	2	0	77	2
New South Wales MDB	13,884	8,865	64	–211	–2	–3,722	–27
Coastal New South Wales	1,074	880	82	–12	–1	–106	–10
Victoria MDB	8,488	6,988	82	163	2	236	3

State water storages in the Murray–Darling Basin (NSW, Victoria and Queensland)

 

The current water allocations for the 2017–18 water trading season for licence holders in New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia water systems are summarised in the following table and charts.

On  1 December 2017 NSW Department of Primary Industries – Water announced allocation increases of:

• 4% for NSW Murray general security to 39%

On  1 December 2017 the Resource Manager for Northern Victoria announced seasonal determination increases of:

• 43% for Victoria Broken low reliability to 63%
• 13% for Victoria Campaspe low reliability to 46%
• 6% for Victoria Goulburn high reliability to 100%

6% for Victoria Loddon high reliability to 100%

Water allocations in the Murray–Darling Basin (NSW, Victoria and South Australia)

Allocations at	7 December 2017		24 November 2017
New South Wales	General security	High security	General security	High security
NSW Murray	39%	97%	35%	97%
NSW Murrumbidgee	33%	95%	33%	95%
NSW Lower Darling	100%	100%	100%	100%
NSW Macquarie and Cudgegong	38%	100%	38%	100%
NSW Hunter	100%	100%	100%	100%
NSW Lachlan	2%	100%	2%	100%
NSW Lower Namoi	7%	100%	7%	100%
NSW Upper Namoi	100%	100%	100%	100%
NSW Gwydir	16%	100%	16%	100%
NSW Border Rivers	100%(a)/14.7%(b)	100%	100%(a)/14.7%(b)	100%
NSW Peel	100%	100%	100%	100%
Victoria	Low reliability	High reliability	Low reliability	High reliability
Victoria Murray	0%	100%	0%	100%
Victoria Goulburn	0%	100%	0%	94%
Victoria Campaspe	46%	100%	33%	100%
Victoria Loddon	0%	100%	0%	94%
Victoria Bullarook	100%	100%	100%	100%
Victoria Broken	63%	100%	20%	100%
South Australia		Class 3a/3b		Class 3a/3b
South Australia Murray		100%		100%

Select water allocation percentages in the southern Murray-Darling Basin

 

 

 

 

Allocation prices in the southern Murray–Darling Basin declined in the week ending 7 December 2017 to $113 per ML. This is a decrease of $5 from the same time last week. This contrasts with an average price of $120 in November across the whole southern MDB, and $93 during the same time last year.

Allocation trade activity in the southern Murray–Darling Basin

 

The trades shown reflect estimated market activity and do not encompass all register trades. The price line reflects locally fitted price values for the entire southern Murray–Darling Basin. Data shown is current until 7 December 2017. Trade activity is shown as colour density.

Allocation trade prices, southern Murray–Darling Basin trade zones

	Southern MDB	Victoria Goulburn	SA Murray	NSW Murrumbidgee	Victoria Murray	NSW Murray
Current week: 01/12/17 – 07/12/17	$113.31	$86.12	$130.42	$124.16	$107.43	$90.00
Last week: 24/11/17 – 30/11/17	$118.13	$88.55	$141.36	$135.59	$128.99	$128.86
November 2017	$119.89	$93.93	$138.96	$137.06	$130.84	$133.01
November 2016	$92.70	$100.58	$101.19	$66.25	$102.07	$84.84

Indicator	Week ended	Unit	Latest price	Price week prior	Weekly change	Price 12 months prior	Year on year change	Chart
Selected world indicator prices
Australian Dollar – AUD/USD Exchange Rate	06-Dec	US$/A$	0.76	0.76	0%	0.74	3%	chart
Wheat – US no. 2 hard red winter wheat, fob Gulf	05-Dec	US$/t	219	218	<1%	180	22%	chart
Coarse Grains – US no. 2 yellow corn, fob Gulf	06-Dec	US$/t	152	148	3%	152	0%	chart
Canola – Rapeseed, Europe, fob Hamburga	05-Dec	US$/t	437	434	<1%	441	<1%	chart
Cotton – Cotlook 'A' Index	06-Dec	USc/lb	83.3	82.0	2%	79.7	5%	chart
Sugar – Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, no.11 contract	06-Dec	USc/lb	14.9	15.2	-2%	19.6	-24%	chart
Wool – Eastern Market Indicator	30-Nov	Ac/kg clean	1,676	1,669	<1%	1,378	22%	chart
Wool – Western Market Indicator	01-Dec	Ac/kg clean	1,725	1,717	<1%	1,438	20%	chart
Selected domestic crop indicator prices
Milling Wheat – ASW1, track quote, Port Adelaide, SA	05-Dec	A$/t	238	240	<1%	194	23%	chart
Feed Wheat – General purpose, Sydney, NSW	06-Dec	A$/t	268	258	4%	224	20%	chart
Feed Barley – Sydney, NSW	06-Dec	A$/t	250	254	-2%	183	37%	chart
Canola – Portland, Vic.	04-Dec	A$/t	522	525	<1%	523	<1%	chart
Grain Sorghum – Sydney, NSW	06-Dec	A$/t	319	319	0%	243	31%	chart
Selected domestic livestock indicator prices
Beef – Eastern Young Cattle Indicator	30-Nov	Ac/kg cwt	580	577	<1%	645	-10%	chart
Mutton – Mutton indicator (18-24 kg fat score 2-3), Vic	01-Dec	Ac/kg cwt	476	470	1%	423	13%	chart
Lamb – Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator	07-Dec	Ac/kg cwt	616	613	<1%	515	20%	chart
Pig – Eastern Seaboard (60.1-75 kg), average of buyers & sellers	24-Nov	Ac/kg cwt	277	276	<1%	377	-27%	chart
Goat – Eastern States (12.1-16 kg)	04-Dec	Ac/kg cwt	490	490	0%	600	-18%	chart
Live cattle – Light steers ex Darwin to Indonesia	02-Dec	Ac/kg lwt	330	320	3%	370	-11%	chart
Live sheep – Live wether (Muchea WA saleyard) to Middle East	04-Dec	$/head	113	113	0%	86	31%	chart
Global Dairy Trade weighted average pricesa
Dairy – Whole milk powder	05-Dec	US$/t	2,830	2,778	2%	3,593	-21%	chart
Dairy – Skim milk powder	05-Dec	US$/t	1,774	1,701	4%	2,570	-31%	chart
Dairy – Cheddar cheese	05-Dec	US$/t	3,696	3,831	-4%	3,752	-1%	chart
Dairy – Anhydrous milk fat	05-Dec	US$/t	6,836	6,887	<1%	5,500	24%	chart

^a Global Dairy Trade prices are updated twice monthly on the first and third Tuesday of each month.

Movements in selected fruit and vegetable prices
Data attribution