Weekly update - 13 September 2018
Key issues
- During the week ending 12 September 2018 rainfall was restricted to the east, and far south and west of the country. Rainfall totals of between 10 and 50 millimetres were recorded across parts of eastern New South Wales, southern and eastern Victoria, parts of south-eastern Queensland, the far south-east of South Australia, the far south-west of Western Australia and much of Tasmania.
- In cropping regions, rainfall totals of between 10 and 25 millimetres were recorded for eastern New South Wales, far south-east Queensland and the far south of Western Australia. For remaining cropping regions, weekly rainfall totals generally ranged from 1 to 10 millimetres.
- For the week ending 11 September 2018, maximum temperatures were generally average across much of the country. Minimum temperatures were also generally average, with parts of western Queensland, Western Australia, the south-east of the Northern Territory, and eastern South Australia recording night-time temperatures of 2°C to 4°C below average for this time of year.
- A drier than average October is more likely across large areas of northern, eastern and southern Australia.
- The mid-month climate outlook for October to December 2018 indicates that a drier than average three months is more likely for inland New South Wales, Victoria, parts of northern and western Queensland, eastern and northern South Australia, south-west Western Australia, Tasmania and the Northern Territory.
- Much of eastern and southern mainland Australia have been very dry and warm since the start of the year. The Bureau of Meteorology’s rainfall outlook for October to December indicates that many areas that are current experiencing drought conditions are unlikely to see above average rainfall in the coming three months.
- During the next eight days, rainfall is expected to be restricted to the far east and south of Australia.
- In cropping regions, little to no rainfall is forecast during the next eight days, with most regions expected to record between 0 and 5 millimetres.
- Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) decreased during the week ending 13 September 2018 by 21 gigalitres (GL) to 12,342GL and are at 55 per cent of total capacity. This is 20 percentage points or 4,502 GL less than at the same time last year.
- Allocation prices in the southern Murray-Darling Basin declined in the week ending 13 September 2018 to $318 per ML. This is a decrease of $1 from the same time last week.
Climate
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Rainfall this week
During the week ending 12 September 2018 little to no rainfall was recorded across much of mainland Australia, with falls restricted to the east, and far south and west of the country. Rainfall totals of between 10 and 50 millimetres were recorded across parts of eastern New South Wales, southern and eastern Victoria, parts of south-eastern Queensland, the far south-east of South Australia, the far south-west of Western Australia and much of Tasmania.
Higher rainfall totals in excess of 50 millimetres were recorded across areas of north-western Tasmania. The highest recorded weekly total was 87 millimetres at Mount Read, in Tasmania.
In cropping regions, rainfall totals of between 10 and 25 millimetres were recorded for eastern New South Wales, far south-east Queensland and the far south of Western Australia. For remaining cropping regions, weekly rainfall totals generally ranged from 1 to 10 millimetres.
Rainfall analysis for the week ending 12 September 2018
©Commonwealth of Australia 2018, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 12/9/2018
Note: The rainfall analyses and associated maps utilise data contained in the Bureau of Meteorology climate database, the Australian Data Archive for Meteorology (ADAM). The analyses are initially produced automatically from real-time data with limited quality control. They are intended to provide a general overview of rainfall across Australia as quickly as possible after the observations are received. For further information go to Weekly Rainfall Update.
Temperature anomalies this week
For the week ending 11 September 2018, maximum temperatures were above average (2°C to 4°C) across parts of south-eastern and northern Australia, with generally average daytime temperatures across the remainder of the country. Minimum temperatures were generally average, with parts of western Queensland, Western Australia, the south-east of the Northern Territory, and eastern South Australia recording night-time temperatures of 2°C to 4°C below average for this time of year.
Maximum temperature anomalies for the week ending 11 September 2018
©Commonwealth of Australia 2018, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 12/9/2018
Minimum temperature anomalies for the week ending 11 September 2018
©Commonwealth of Australia 2018, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 12/9/2018
Note: Spatial temperature analyses are based on historical weekly temperature data provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. These temperature anomaly maps show the departure of the maximum and minimum temperatures from the average over the 1961 to 1990 reference period. For further information go to Daily maximum temperature for Australia.
Mid-month National Climate Outlook
The rainfall and temperature outlooks presented here show the likelihood, represented as a percentage, of experiencing wetter or drier (and warmer or cooler) than median climatic conditions for the given outlook periods. These climate outlooks are generated by ACCESS–S (Australian Community Climate Earth-System Simulator–Seasonal). ACCESS–S is the Bureau of Meteorology's dynamical (physics-based) weather and climate model used for monthly, seasonal and longer-lead climate outlooks. Prior to August 2018, climate outlooks were produced by the Bureau's earlier model, POAMA.
For further information, go to About the climate outlooks
The current outlook reflects the neutral state of broad-scale climate drivers, such as El Niño, La Niña and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), meaning they are currently having little influence on Australia's climate. However, current observations and model outlooks indicate El Niño and a positive IOD could develop in spring. The latest model run from the Bureau of Meteorology’s operational climate model also suggests that sea surface temperatures will continue to be cooler than average to Australia's northwest which is likely acting to suppress rainfall over southern and central Australia.
A drier than average October is more likely across much of western and central New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland, the far south and north of South Australia, parts of southern and northern Western Australia, Tasmania and the Northern Territory. For the remainder of the country there are roughly equal chances of a wetter or drier than average October (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 13 September 2018).
Chance of exceeding the median rainfall October 2018
The rainfall outlook for October to December 2018 indicates that a drier than average three months is more likely for inland New South Wales, Victoria, parts of northern and western Queensland, eastern and northern South Australia, south-west Western Australia, Tasmania and the Northern Territory. There is no strong tendency towards either wetter or drier than average conditions for much of remainder of the country (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 13 September 2018).
Much of eastern and southern mainland Australia have been very dry and warm since the start of the year. The Bureau of Meteorology’s rainfall outlook for October to December indicates that many areas that are current experiencing drought conditions are unlikely to see above average rainfall in the coming three months.
Chance of exceeding the median rainfall October to December 2018
The temperature outlook for October to December 2018 indicates that daytime and night-time temperatures are more likely to be warmer than average for Australia. (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 13 September 2018).
Chance of exceeding the median maximum temperature October to December 2018
Chance of exceeding the median minimum temperature October to December 2018
Rainfall forecast for the next 8 days
During the next eight days, rainfall is expected to be restricted to the far east and south of Australia. Little to no rainfall is forecast across the remainder of the country.
Rainfall totals of between 10 and 50 millimetres are forecast for parts of southern Victoria, the far south-east of South Australia and most of Tasmania. Heavier falls in excess of 50 millimetres are forecast for western Tasmania.
In cropping regions, little to no rainfall is forecast during the next eight days, with most regions expected to record between 0 and 5 millimetres.
This rainfall forecast is produced from computer models. As it contains no input from weather forecasters, it is important to check local forecasts and warnings issued by the Bureau of Meteorology.
Total forecast rainfall (mm) for the period 13 to 20 September 2018
©Commonwealth of Australia 2018, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 13/9/2018
Commodities
Current indicators – 13 September 2018
| Indicator | Week ended | Unit | Latest price | Price week prior | Weekly change | Price 12 months prior | Year on year change | Chart |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Selected world indicator prices |
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| Australian Dollar – AUD/USD Exchange Rate | 12-Sep | US$/A$ | 0.71 | 0.72 | -1% |
0.8 | -11% |
chart |
| Wheat – US no. 2 hard red winter wheat, fob Gulf | 11-Sep | US$/t | 239 | 246 | -3% |
212 | 13% |
chart |
| Coarse Grains – US no. 2 yellow corn, fob Gulf | 12-Sep | US$/t | 159 | 160 | <1% |
148 | 7% |
chart |
| Canola – Rapeseed, Europe, fob Hamburga | 11-Sep | US$/t | 439 | 440 | <1% |
430 | 2% |
chart |
| Cotton – Cotlook 'A' Index | 12-Sep | USc/lb | 92.0 | 92.3 | <1% |
82.8 | 11% |
chart |
| Sugar – Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, no.11 contract | 12-Sep | USc/lb | 11.2 | 10.7 | 5% |
14.2 | -21% |
chart |
| Wool – Eastern Market Indicator | 06-Sep | Ac/kg clean | 2,088 | 2,090 | <1% |
1,556 | 34% |
chart |
| Wool – Western Market Indicator | 07-Sep | Ac/kg clean | 2,255 | 2,255 | 0% | 1,600 | 41% |
chart |
Selected domestic crop indicator prices |
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| Milling Wheat – ASW1, track quote, Port Adelaide, SA | 11-Sep | A$/t | 367 | 325 | 13% |
217 | 69% |
chart |
| Feed Wheat – General purpose, Sydney, NSW | 12-Sep | A$/t | 430 | 430 | 0% | 248 | 73% |
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| Feed Barley – Sydney, NSW | 12-Sep | A$/t | 410 | 410 | 0% | 246 | 67% |
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| Canola – Portland, Vic. | 10-Sep | A$/t | 575 | 568 | 1% |
508 | 13% |
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| Grain Sorghum – Sydney, NSW | 12-Sep | A$/t | 405 | 405 | 0% | 314 | 29% |
chart |
Selected domestic livestock indicator prices |
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| Beef – Eastern Young Cattle Indicator | 06-Sep | Ac/kg cwt | 489 | 484 | 1% |
542 | -10% |
chart |
| Mutton – Mutton indicator (18-24 kg fat score 2-3), Vic | 07-Sep | Ac/kg cwt | 479 | 472 | 1% |
401 | 19% |
chart |
| Lamb – Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator | 06-Sep | Ac/kg cwt | 855 | 878 | -3% |
613 | 39% |
chart |
| Pig – Eastern Seaboard (60.1-75 kg), average of buyers & sellers | 31-Aug | Ac/kg cwt | 248 | 248 | 0% | 277 | -10% |
chart |
| Goat – Eastern States (12.1-16 kg) | 10-Sep | Ac/kg cwt | 540 | 540 | 0% | 470 | 15% |
chart |
| Live cattle – Light steers ex Darwin to Indonesia | 08-Sep | Ac/kg lwt | 300 | 300 | 0% | 330 | -9% |
chart |
| Live sheep – Live wether (Muchea WA saleyard) to Middle East | 10-Sep | $/head | 111 | na | na | 113 | -2% |
chart |
Global Dairy Trade weighted average pricesa |
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| Dairy – Whole milk powder | 04-Sep | US$/t | 2,821 | 2,883 | -2% |
3,100 | -9% |
chart |
| Dairy – Skim milk powder | 04-Sep | US$/t | 2,005 | 1,951 | 3% |
1,944 | 3% |
chart |
| Dairy – Cheddar cheese | 04-Sep | US$/t | 3,631 | 3,484 | 4% |
4,118 | -12% |
chart |
| Dairy – Anhydrous milk fat | 04-Sep | US$/t | 5,316 | 5,321 | <1% |
6,405 | -17% |
chart |
a Global Dairy Trade prices are updated twice monthly on the first and third Tuesday of each month.
Selected world indicator prices
Selected domestic crop indicator prices
Selected domestic livestock indicator prices
Global dairy trade weighted average prices
Movements in selected fruit and vegetable prices
Data attribution
Water
Water storages, water markets and water allocations - current week
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