Weekly update - 14 February 2019
Key issues
- During the week ending 13 February 2019 rainfall was recorded across large areas of northern Australia, as well as parts of south-eastern and south-western Australia.
- In summer cropping regions, rainfall of between 10 and 25 millimetres was recorded across some northern growing regions in Queensland during the week ending 13 February 2019.
- For the week ending 12 February 2019, maximum and minimum temperatures were generally 2°C to 8°C above average across large areas of northern and eastern Australia. In contrast, maximum and minimum temperatures were -2°C to -6°C below average across large areas of north-west Queensland and parts of the far south of Australia.
- For the 10-month period ending January 2019, rainfall deficiencies have increased in severity across large areas of eastern Australia. They have also increased in extent across northern Australia as a result of a delayed onset of the Australian monsoon during the summer of 2018–19 in a number of regions.
- A drier than average March is more likely for parts of north-eastern Queensland, large areas of southern and northern Western Australia and parts of central Northern Territory. For the remainder of the country there are roughly equal chances of a wetter or drier than average March.
- The mid-month climate outlook for autumn 2019 indicates a drier than average three months is more likely for parts of northern and southern New South Wales, large areas of eastern and far-western Queensland, northern Western Australia, and southern Northern Territory. For much of the remainder of the country, there is no strong tendency towards either wetter or drier than average conditions.
- During the next eight days, rainfall is expected to be restricted to eastern and northern Australia.
- In summer cropping regions, rainfall of between 1 and 5 millimetres is expected across northern cropping areas of Queensland.
- Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) decreased by 112 gigalitres (GL) between 7 February 2019 and 14 February 2019. The current volume of water held in storage is 9,889 GL, which represents 39 per cent of total capacity.
- Allocation prices in the southern Murray–Darling Basin increased from $487 per ML in the week ending 28 January 2019 to $491 per ML in the week ending 4 February 2019.
Climate
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Rainfall this week
During the week ending 13 February 2019 rainfall was recorded across large areas of northern Australia, as well as parts of south-eastern and south-western Australia. Rainfall totals of between 10 and 50 millimetres were recorded across scattered areas of eastern and central New South Wales, Victoria, large areas of Queensland, northern and south-western Western Australia, Tasmania and the north of the Northern Territory. Higher rainfall totals in excess of 50 millimetres were recorded across large areas of tropical northern Australia and Tasmania.
In summer cropping regions, rainfall of between 10 and 25 millimetres was recorded across some northern growing regions in Queensland during the week ending 13 February 2019. Lighter fall of between 1 and 10 millimetres was recorded across remaining summer cropping regions in Queensland and New South Wales.
Rainfall analysis for the week ending 13 February 2019
©Commonwealth of Australia 2019, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 13/02/2019
Note: The rainfall analyses and associated maps utilise data contained in the Bureau of Meteorology climate database, the Australian Data Archive for Meteorology (ADAM). The analyses are initially produced automatically from real-time data with limited quality control. They are intended to provide a general overview of rainfall across Australia as quickly as possible after the observations are received. For further information go to Weekly Rainfall Update.
Temperature anomalies this week
For the week ending 12 February 2019, maximum and minimum temperatures were generally 2°C to 8°C above average across large areas of northern and eastern Australia. In contrast, maximum and minimum temperatures were -2°C to -6°C below average across large areas of north-west Queensland and parts of the far south of Australia. Average (-2°C to 2°C) minimum and maximum temperatures were recorded across the remainder of the country.
Maximum temperature anomalies for the week ending 12 February 2019
©Commonwealth of Australia 2018, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 13/02/2019
Minimum temperature anomalies for the week ending 12 February 2019
©Commonwealth of Australia 2018, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 13/02/2019
Note: Spatial temperature analyses are based on historical weekly temperature data provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. These temperature anomaly maps show the departure of the maximum and minimum temperatures from the average over the 1961 to 1990 reference period. For further information go to Daily maximum temperature for Australia.
Rainfall deficiencies
The rainfall deficiencies presented below are sourced from the Bureau of Meteorology’s monthly ‘Drought Statement’. The Bureau of Meteorology monitors short to longer-term deficiencies through their lifecycle—from emergence through to their dissipation—with the time period of analysis increasing each month from a fixed starting point to the when the deficiencies ease.
For further information, go to Drought.
For the 10-month period ending January 2019, rainfall deficiencies have increased in severity across large areas of eastern Australia and in extent across northern Australia, as a result of the delayed onset of the Australian monsoon during the summer of 2018–19 in a number of regions. Serious to severe rainfall deficiencies persist across large areas of northern New South Wales, parts of eastern Victoria, much of southern and parts of western Queensland, large areas of eastern South Australia, parts of southern and northern Western Australia and central part of the Northern Territory.
Serious to severe rainfall deficiencies continue to persist at longer timescales. For the 22 months starting April 2017, serious to severe rainfall deficiencies remain evident across large areas of eastern and northern New South Wales, parts of eastern Victoria, large areas of eastern South Australia, southern and western Queensland, parts of western and southern Western Australia and central part of the Northern Territory (Bureau of Meteorology ‘Drought Statement’, 5 February 2019).
Rainfall deficiencies for the 10-month period 1 April 2018 to 31 January 2019
©Commonwealth of Australia 2018, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 05/02/2019
Rainfall deficiencies for the 22-month period 1 April 2017 to 31 January 2019
©Commonwealth of Australia 2018, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 05/02/2019
Mid-month National Climate Outlook
The rainfall and temperature outlooks presented here show the likelihood, represented as a percentage, of experiencing wetter or drier (and warmer or cooler) than median climatic conditions for the given outlook periods. These climate outlooks are generated by ACCESS–S (Australian Community Climate Earth-System Simulator–Seasonal). ACCESS–S is the Bureau of Meteorology's dynamical (physics-based) weather and climate model used for monthly, seasonal and longer-lead climate outlooks. Prior to August 2018, climate outlooks were produced by the Bureau's earlier model, POAMA.
For further information, go to About the climate outlooks.
The Bureau of Meteorology’s mid-month national climate outlook suggests little signal from any of the typical Australian climate drivers, with most in a neutral phase. Therefore, local effects, such as the ocean temperatures around Australia, are likely to be the main influence on climatic conditions in Australia over the next three months.
A drier than average March is more likely for parts of north-eastern Queensland, large areas of southern and northern Western Australia and parts of central Northern Territory. For the remainder of the country there are roughly equal chances of a wetter or drier than average March (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 14 February 2019).
Chance of exceeding the median rainfall March 2019
The rainfall outlook for autumn (March to May 2019) indicates that a drier than average three months is more likely for parts of northern and southern New South Wales, large areas of eastern and far western Queensland, northern Western Australia, and southern Northern Territory. For the remainder of the country, there is no strong tendency towards either wetter or drier than average conditions (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 14 February 2019).
Chance of exceeding the median rainfall March 2019 to May 2019
The temperature outlook for March 2019 to May 2019 indicates that daytime temperatures are more likely to be warmer than average across Australia. Night-time temperatures are also likely to be warmer than average for much of the country, with the exception of parts of southern South Australia, where the chances of warmer or cooler nights are roughly equal (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 14 February 2019).
Chance of exceeding the median maximum temperature March 2019 to May 2019
Chance of exceeding the median minimum temperature March 2019 to May 2019
Rainfall forecast for the next 8 days
During the next eight days, rainfall is expected to be mainly restricted to eastern and northern Australia.
Rainfall totals of between 10 and 50 millimetres are forecast for scattered of Australia’s east coast, far north Queensland, the far north of Western Australia, western Tasmania and the far north of Northern Territory. Heavier falls in excess of 50 millimetres are forecast for parts of the tropical north of Queensland, Western Australia and the Northern Territory.
In summer cropping regions, rainfall of between 1 and 5 millimetres is expected across northern cropping areas of Queensland. Little to no rainfall is expected across other summer cropping regions of Queensland and New South Wales.
This rainfall forecast is produced from computer models. As the model outputs are not altered by weather forecasters, it is important to check local forecasts and warnings issued by the Bureau of Meteorology.
Total forecast rainfall (mm) for the period 14 February to 21 February 2019
©Commonwealth of Australia 2019, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 14/02/2019
Commodities
Current indicators – 14 February 2019
| Indicator | Week ended | Unit | Latest price | Price week prior | Weekly change | Price 12 months prior | Year on year change | Chart |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Selected world indicator prices |
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| Australian Dollar – AUD/USD Exchange Rate | 13-Feb | US$/A$ | 0.71 | 0.72 | -1% |
0.78 | -9% |
chart |
| Wheat – US no. 2 hard red winter wheat, fob Gulf | 12-Feb | US$/t | 241 | 245 | -2% |
237 | 2% |
chart |
| Coarse Grains – US no. 2 yellow corn, fob Gulf | 13-Feb | US$/t | 173 | 172 | <1% |
163 | 6% |
chart |
| Canola – Rapeseed, Europe, fob Hamburg | 12-Feb | US$/t | 423 | 430 | -2% |
430 | -2% |
chart |
| Cotton – Cotlook 'A' Index | 13-Feb | USc/lb | 81.2 | 83.1 | -2% |
87.3 | -7% |
chart |
| Sugar – Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, no.11 contract | 13-Feb | USc/lb | 12.8 | 12.7 | <1% |
13.6 | -6% |
chart |
| Wool – Eastern Market Indicator | 07-Feb | Ac/kg clean | 1,944 | 1,934 | <1% |
1,818 | 7% |
chart |
| Wool – Western Market Indicator | 01-Feb | Ac/kg clean | 2,094 | 2,092 | <1% |
1,819 | 15% |
chart |
Selected domestic crop indicator prices |
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| Milling Wheat – ASW1, track quote, Port Adelaide, SA | 12-Feb | A$/t | 358 | 349 | 3% |
236 | 52% |
chart |
| Feed Wheat – General purpose, Sydney, NSW | 13-Feb | A$/t | 435 | na | na | 270 | 61% |
chart |
| Feed Barley – Sydney, NSW | 13-Feb | A$/t | 370 | na | na | 262 | 41% |
chart |
| Canola – Portland, Vic. | 29-Oct | A$/t | 597 | na | na | 536 | 11% |
chart |
| Grain Sorghum – Sydney, NSW | 13-Feb | A$/t | 370 | na | na | 410 | -10% |
chart |
Selected domestic livestock indicator prices |
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| Beef – Eastern Young Cattle Indicator | 07-Feb | Ac/kg cwt | 475 | 469 | 1% |
539 | -12% |
chart |
| Mutton – Mutton indicator (18–24 kg fat score 2–3), Vic | 08-Feb | Ac/kg cwt | 352 | 392 | -10% |
378 | -7% |
chart |
| Lamb – Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator | 07-Feb | Ac/kg cwt | 633 | 662 | -4% |
630 | <1% |
chart |
| Pig – Eastern Seaboard (60.1–75 kg), average of buyers & sellers | 01-Feb | Ac/kg cwt | 324 | 323 | <1% |
277 | 17% |
chart |
| Goat – Eastern States (12.1–16 kg) | 11-Feb | Ac/kg cwt | 588 | 588 | 0% | 478 | 23% |
chart |
| Live cattle – Light steers ex Darwin to Indonesia | 02-Feb | Ac/kg lwt | 325 | 325 | 0% | 320 | 2% |
chart |
| Live sheep – Live wether (Muchea WA saleyard) to Middle East | 03-Dec | $/head | 108 | na | na | 121 | -11% |
chart |
Global Dairy Trade (GDT) weighted average prices a |
||||||||
| Dairy – Whole milk powder | 06-Feb | US$/t | 3,027 | 2,777 | 9% |
3,226 | -6% |
chart |
| Dairy – Skim milk powder | 06-Feb | US$/t | 2,534 | 2,405 | 5% |
1,932 | 31% |
chart |
| Dairy – Cheddar cheese | 06-Feb | US$/t | 3,565 | 3,504 | 2% |
3,739 | -5% |
chart |
| Dairy – Anhydrous milk fat | 06-Feb | US$/t | 5,579 | 5,294 | 5% |
6,581 | -15% |
chart |
a Global Dairy Trade prices are updated twice monthly on the first and third Tuesday of each month.
Selected world indicator prices
Selected domestic crop indicator prices
Selected domestic livestock indicator prices
Global dairy trade weighted average prices
Movements in selected fruit and vegetable prices
Data attribution
Water
Water storages, water markets and water allocations - current week
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