Weekly update - 14 May 2020

During the week ending 13 May 2020 rainfall was largely restricted to scattered areas of eastern and southern Australia. Rainfall between 10 and 50 millimetres was recorded across parts of north-eastern and south-eastern New South Wales, southern Victoria and Tasmania, and parts of far northern Queensland, south-eastern South Australia and the far south-west of Western Australia. Rainfall in excess of 50 millimetres was recorded across parts of north-eastern Queensland and western Tasmania.

In Australia’s cropping regions, rainfall totals of between 10 and 25 millimetres were recorded in parts of south-western Victoria and southern South Australia. Lower totals of between 1 and 10 millimetres were recorded across remaining regions in Victoria and South Australia and parts of northern and southern New South Wales, southern Queensland and southern Western Australia. Little to no rainfall was recorded across remaining regions of New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia during the week ending 13 May 2020.

Although most cropping regions across southern Australia received average to above average rainfall totals for the three months ending 31 March 2020, April and May-to-date rainfall has been variable and patchy across most winter cropping regions in Queensland and parts of Western Australia. While these conditions are not uncommon for this time of year in Western Australia, they pose a greater risk in Queensland where winter crop production is more reliant on stored soil moisture than in-crop rainfall. Widespread above average rainfall during the remainder of May and through to July will be needed to replenishing soil moisture profiles, improve crop establishment and development, and encourage further plantings in Queensland and Western Australia.

Rainfall for the week ending 13 May 2020

©Commonwealth of Australia 2020, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 13/05/2020

Note: The rainfall analyses and associated maps utilise data contained in the Bureau of Meteorology climate database, the Australian Data Archive for Meteorology (ADAM). The analyses are initially produced automatically from real-time data with limited quality control. They are intended to provide a general overview of rainfall across Australia as quickly as possible after the observations are received. For further information go to http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/rainfall/

The rainfall deficiencies presented below are sourced from the Bureau of Meteorology’s monthly ‘Drought Statement’. As short to longer-term deficiencies become evident the Bureau of Meteorology monitors these events through their lifecycle – from emergence through to their dissipation – with the time-period of analysis each month increasing from a fixed starting point to the easing of the deficiencies.

For further information, go to http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/drought

Above average rainfall across the southeast of Australia in April 2020 eased 9-month deficiencies, but longer-term deficiencies still persist across much of the country. For the 9-month period ending April 2020, rainfall deficiencies have eased across western and southern New South Wales, south-western Queensland, South Australia, and southern Western Australia. The area affected by serious to severe rainfall deficiencies (rainfall totals in the lowest 5 to 10 percent of the historical record) has expanded across eastern Queensland following below average rainfall during April, while 9-month deficiencies persist across the far southeast of New South Wales, parts of South Australia and Western Australia and the north and south-west of the Northern Territory.

Serious to severe rainfall deficiencies continue to persist at longer timescales, however they have eased slightly across parts of New South Wales and Victoria following above average April rainfall. It will take several more significant rainfall events to significantly ease these long-term rainfall deficiencies, but with recent improvements in soil moisture levels this is likely to little or no impact on the current growing season for dry land agriculture.

For the 25-months starting in April 2018, serious to severe rainfall deficiencies remain evident across much of New South Wales and South Australia, parts of eastern and northern Victoria, south-eastern Queensland, north-eastern and south-western Western Australia and the south-west and north of the Northern Territory (Bureau of Meteorology ‘Drought Statement’, 7 May 2020).

Rainfall deficiencies for the 9-month period 1 August 2019 to 30 April 2020

©Commonwealth of Australia 2020, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 06/05/2020

Rainfall deficiencies for the 25-month period 1 April 2018 to 30 April 2020

©Commonwealth of Australia 2020, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 06/05/2020

The rainfall outlooks presented here show the rainfall amounts which have a 75% chance of occurring during the next month and the next three month period because these help to show whether conditions for agricultural production will be favourable. The temperature outlooks presented here show how far above or below the 1990-2012 average the temperature is likely to be. These climate outlooks are generated by ACCESS–S (Australian Community Climate Earth-System Simulator–Seasonal). ACCESS–S is the Bureau of Meteorology's dynamical (physics-based) weather and climate model used for monthly, seasonal and longer-lead climate outlooks.

For further information, go to http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/about/

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral, however it is expected to approach or exceed negative IOD thresholds from mid-winter. A negative IOD typically brings above average rainfall to southern Australia during winter and spring. It is important to note that some caution should be exercised when using IOD forecasts issued during autumn, as they are less accurate than forecasts made at other times of the year. In addition to the potential for a negative IOD from mid-winter, warmer than average temperatures in the eastern Indian Ocean are increasing the likelihood of northwest cloudbands interacting with troughs and fronts and bearing rain over Australia during late autumn and early winter.

The latest rainfall outlook released by the Bureau of Meteorology suggests above average rainfall is very likely for much of Australia during June 2020, with roughly equal chances of a wetter or drier June across parts of north-eastern and south-western Australia. Similarly, the rainfall outlook for June to August 2020 suggests that wetter than average conditions are very likely for much of Australia, with roughly equal chances of a wetter or drier than average three months across parts of north-eastern Australia, the eastern coastline of Australia and southern Tasmania (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 7 May 2019).

Chance of exceeding the median rainfall June to August 2020

©Commonwealth of Australia 2020, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 07/05/2020

The outlook for June 2020 suggests that there is a 75% chance of rainfall totals between 10 and 50 millimetres across much of southern and eastern Australia. Rainfall totals in excess of 50 millimetres are likely across isolated parts of south-eastern Australia, far south-western Australia and much of Tasmania.

In cropping regions there is a 75% chance of rainfall totals between 10 and 50 millimetres across of New South Wales, Victoria, South Australia and Western Australia. Across cropping regions in Queensland there is a 75% chance of rainfall totals between 1  millimetre in the north to 25 millimetres in the south for June 2020.

Rainfall totals that have a 75% chance of occurring June 2020

©Commonwealth of Australia 2020, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 07/05/2020

In many areas where soil moisture is close to average to above average for this time of year, there is a good chance of recording June rainfall totals sufficient to sustain crop and pasture production initiated by the early autumn break. In New South Wales, for example, there is a 75% chance of receiving between 10 and 50 millimetres and a 50% chance of receiving between 25 and 100 millimetres during June 2020.

The outlook for June and August 2020 suggests that there is a 75% chance of rainfall totals between 50 and 200 millimetres across south-eastern, south-western, and far southern Australia. Rainfall totals in excess of 200 millimetres are likely across isolated parts of south-eastern and south-western Australia and western Tasmania.

In cropping regions, there is a 75% chance of receiving between 50 and 200 millimetres across much of New South Wales, Victoria, South Australia and Western Australia. Across cropping regions in Queensland there is a 75% chance of rainfall totals between 25 and 50 millimetres between June and August 2020.

Rainfall totals that have a 75% chance of occurring June to August 2020

©Commonwealth of Australia 2020, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 07/05/2020

The temperature outlook for June to August 2020 indicates that daytime temperatures are likely to be between 1°C to 2°C above the 1990-2012 average across parts of northern Australia and night-time temperatures are likely to be between 1°C to 3°C above average across much of northern and central Australia. Average (- 1°C to 1°C) daytime and night-time temperatures are likely for the remainder of the country (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 7 May 2020).

Predicted maximum temperature anomaly for June to August 2020

Predicted minimum temperature anomaly for June to August 2020

Persistent high-pressure systems over southern Australia are expected to limit rainfall over the next eight days. Rainfall totals of between 10 and 50 millimetres are forecast for isolated parts of south-eastern Australia and north-eastern Queensland. Falls in excess of 50 millimetres are forecast across isolated coastal areas of north-eastern Queensland.

In cropping regions, rainfall of between 5 and 10 millimetres is expected across parts of southern New South Wales, much of Victoria and far southern areas of South Australia and Western Australia. Little to no rainfall is expected across remaining cropping regions during the next eight days.

Total forecast rainfall (mm) for the period 14 May 2020 to 21 May 2020

©Commonwealth of Australia 2020, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 14/05/2020

Note: This rainfall forecast is produced from computer models. As the model outputs are not altered by weather forecasters, it is important to check local forecasts and warnings issued by the Bureau of Meteorology.

Indicator	Week ended	Unit	Latest price	Price week prior	Weekly change	Price 12 months prior	Year on year change	Chart
Selected World Indicator Prices
Australian Dollar – AUD/USD Exchange Rate	13-May	US$/A$	0.65	0.64	2%	0.7	-7%	chart
Wheat – US no. 2 hard red winter wheat, fob Gulf	05-May	US$/t	231	230	<1%	202	14%	chart
Coarse Grains – US no. 2 yellow corn, fob Gulf	13-May	US$/t	143	147	-3%	160	-11%	chart
Canola – Rapeseed, Canada, fob Vancouver	13-May	US$/t	360	357	<1%	351	-3%	chart
Cotton – Cotlook 'A' Index	14-May	USc/lb	64.9	65.0	<1%	79.0	-18%	chart
Sugar – Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, no.11 contract	14-May	USc/lb	10.2	10.2	0%	11.8	-14%	chart
Wool – Eastern Market Indicator	07-May	Ac/kg clean	1,170	1,225	-4%	1,952	-40%	chart
Wool – Western Market Indicator	07-May	Ac/kg clean	1,246	1,310	-5%	2,093	-40%	chart
Selected domestic crop indicator prices
Milling Wheat – ASW1, track quote, Port Adelaide, SA	05-May	A$/t	390	420	-7%	273	43%	chart
Feed Wheat – General purpose, Sydney, NSW	05-May	A$/t	433	448	-3%	386	12%	chart
Feed Barley – Sydney, NSW	05-May	A$/t	360	363	<1%	379	-5%	chart
Grain Sorghum – Sydney, NSW	31-Mar	A$/t	404	394	3%	432	-6%	chart
Selected domestic livestock indicator prices
Beef – Eastern Young Cattle Indicator b	19-Mar	Ac/kg cwt	742	766	-3%	441	68%	chart
Mutton – Mutton indicator (18–24 kg fat score 2–3), Vic b	19-Mar	Ac/kg cwt	718	761	-6%	411	75%	chart
Lamb – Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator b	19-Mar	Ac/kg cwt	941	960	-2%	647	45%	chart
Pig – Eastern Seaboard (60.1–75 kg), average of buyers & sellers	01-May	Ac/kg cwt	339	352	-4%	338	<1%	chart
Goat – Eastern States (12.1–16 kg)	11-May	Ac/kg cwt	790	820	-4%	798	-1%	chart
Live cattle – Light steers ex Darwin to Indonesia	09-May	Ac/kg lwt	300	280	7%	290	3%	chart
Live sheep – Live wether (Muchea WA saleyard) to Middle East	09-Dec	$/head	105	140	-25%	108	-3%	chart
Global Dairy Trade (GDT) weighted average prices a
Dairy – Whole milk powder	05-May	US$/t	2,745	2,707	1%	3,249	-16%	chart
Dairy – Skim milk powder	05-May	US$/t	2,373	2,380	<1%	2,521	-6%	chart
Dairy – Cheddar cheese	05-May	US$/t	4,115	4,480	-8%	4,217	-2%	chart
Dairy – Anhydrous milk fat	05-May	US$/t	3,973	4,083	-3%	6,217	-36%	chart

^a Global Dairy Trade prices are updated twice monthly on the first and third Tuesday of each month.
^b Note that several indicator price series for livestock are temporarily suspended. More information and temporary replacement series can be found at https://www.mla.com.au/prices-markets/market-news/changes-to-mlas-market-reporting/

Selected world indicator prices
Selected domestic crop indicator prices
Selected domestic livestock indicator prices
Global dairy trade weighted average prices
Movements in selected fruit and vegetable prices
Data attribution