Weekly update - 15 October 2020

During the week ending 14 October 2020 troughs extended through Western Australia, the north of the Northern Territory and Queensland, and a low pressure system and associated cold front moved over south-eastern, bringing rainfall to parts of Australia.

Rainfall totals of between 10 and 50 millimetres were recorded across scattered areas of north-eastern and southern New South Wales, south-eastern Queensland, south-eastern South Australia, southern and northern Western Australia, the north-west of the Northern Territory and much of Victoria and Tasmania. Rainfall in excess of 50 millimetres was recorded across parts of southern Victoria and Tasmania.

In Australia’s cropping regions, rainfall totals of between 5 and 25 millimetres were recorded across parts of southern and northern New South Wales, far south-western Western Australia and much of Queensland and South Australia. Rainfall totals of between 10 and 50 millimetres were recorded across most cropping regions in Victoria and isolated parts of northern Queensland. Little to no rainfall was recorded across remaining cropping regions during the week ending 14 October 2020.

These substantial falls in South Australia and Victoria are likely to support yield prospects, benefit pasture growth and boost soil moisture. However, these falls are likely to have impeded the progress of hay production activities and may have adversely affected hay quality.

Rainfall for the week ending 14 October 2020

©Commonwealth of Australia 2020, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 14/10/2020

Note: The rainfall analyses and associated maps utilise data contained in the Bureau of Meteorology climate database, the Australian Data Archive for Meteorology (ADAM). The analyses are initially produced automatically from real-time data with limited quality control. They are intended to provide a general overview of rainfall across Australia as quickly as possible after the observations are received. For further information go to http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/rainfall/

Crop production is affected by long-term trends in average rainfall and temperature, interannual climate variability, shocks during specific growth stages, and extreme weather events (IPCC 2012). Some crops are more tolerant than others to certain types of stresses, and at each growth stage, different types of stresses affect each crop type in different ways.

The precipitation anomalies and outlooks presented here give an indication of the current and future state of production conditions for the major grain and oilseed producing countries which are responsible for over 80% of global production. This is an important input to assessing the global grain supply outlook.

September rainfall percentiles and current production conditions

As of the end of September 2020, rainfall was generally favourable for the world’s major grain and oil producing regions.

In the Northern Hemisphere, September rainfall was above average in parts of eastern Europe, south-east of the United States, the west and central-east of Russia, north-eastern and south-eastern China, central Africa, southern India and parts of Southeast Asia. Rainfall was below average across parts of north-eastern Europe, the south-west, central-north and east of Russia, south-western China, the west and central-north of the United States and southern Canada.

In the southern hemisphere, September rainfall was above average across parts of Indonesia, below average across parts of central and southern Brazil, western and southern Argentina and south-western Australia. September rainfall was generally average across the remainder of Australia.

Global precipitation percentiles, September 2020

Note: The world precipitation percentiles indicate a ranking of precipitation for September, with the driest (0th percentile) being 0 on the scale and the wettest (100th percentile) being 1 on the scale. Percentiles are based on precipitation estimates from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center's Climate Anomaly Monitoring System Outgoing Precipitation Index dataset. Precipitation estimates for September 2020 are compared with rainfall recorded for that period during the 1981 to 2010 base period.
Source: International Research Institute for Climate and Society

As at 28 September 2020 global production conditions were generally favourable.

In the southern hemisphere, conditions for wheat crop development were generally favourable for Australia and mixed for Argentina. In the northern hemisphere, conditions have been generally favourable for winter wheat sowing in the European Union and the United States, and spring wheat harvesting in the Russian Federation and Canada. Conditions have been mixed for winter wheat sowing in Ukraine and the Russian Federation due to dry conditions.

Conditions for corn were generally favourable for harvest in the United States, Canada, China and India, with mixed conditions in for harvest in Ukraine, Russia and for summer-planted crop in Brazil due to prolonged drought and dryness during sensitive growth stages. Sowing conditions were generally favourable in Mexico, Argentina and the European Union, with the exception of France, Bulgaria and Lithuania where prolonged dry conditions have reduced expected production.

Conditions were generally favourable for harvesting of single-season and late-season rice in China and Kharif rice in India. In the United States, conditions were also favourable for harvesting. In Indonesia, sowing of dry-season rice was extended beyond the normal period due to previous below average rainfall, but with the recovery of irrigation waters conditions became favourable as harvesting of early sown crops continued. Conditions were favourable for wet-season rice in Vietnam for the harvest of the summer-autumn crop and development of autumn-winter crop in the south, and for the summer-autumn crop in the north. Development of rice in Thailand, the Philippines and Japan continued under favourable conditions, with exceptional conditions in the north of Japan.  

Harvesting conditions for soybeans were generally favourable in the United States, Canada, China and India, with mixed conditions in Ukraine due to dryness. In Australia, growing conditions have been favourable for canola.

Crop conditions, AMIS countries, 28 September 2020

AMIS Agricultural Market Information System.
Source: AMIS