Weekly update - 17 May 2018

During the week ending 16 May 2018 little to no rainfall was recorded across much of mainland Australia, with falls being restricted to south-eastern corner of the country. Rainfall totals of between 10 and 50 millimetres were recorded across much of south-eastern New South Wales, southern Victoria, Tasmania and south-eastern agricultural regions of South Australia. Higher totals of between 50 and 200 millimetres were recorded across parts of south-western and alpine regions of Victoria, and much of southern and eastern Tasmania. The highest recorded weekly total was 267 millimetres at Mount Wellington north of Hobart.

Rainfall - week ending 16 May 2018

©Commonwealth of Australia 2018, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 16/05/2018

Note: The rainfall analyses and associated maps utilise data contained in the Bureau of Meteorology climate database, the Australian Data Archive for Meteorology (ADAM). The analyses are initially produced automatically from real-time data with limited quality control. They are intended to provide a general overview of rainfall across Australia as quickly as possible after the observations are received. For further information go to Weekly Rainfall Update.

Temperatures continued to be much warmer than average across western areas of Western Australia during the week ending 15 May 2018. Maximum temperatures were generally close to average for the remainder of the country. In contrast, minimum temperatures were 2°C to 6°C below average across large areas of northern and eastern Australia.

Persistent summer-like heat that sets many April records has continued over agricultural regions of Western Australia during the first half of May. The warm weather has been brought on by a high-pressure system and a trough of low pressure off the coast producing a north to north-easterly wind flow over western parts of Western Australia. The warm winds saw many northern agricultural regions record one of their latest days in autumn above 32°C, which is in excess of 10°C warmer than the maximum mean temperature for this time of year. The combination of these well above average temperatures and little to no rainfall during May-to-date is likely to have increased moisture stress in early sown winter cereal, pulse and oilseed crops, and reduced pasture growth and availability.

Maximum temperature anomalies for the week ending 15 May 2018

©Commonwealth of Australia 2018, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 15/05/2018

Minimum temperature anomalies for the week ending 15 May 2018

©Commonwealth of Australia 2018, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 15/05/2018

Note: Maximum and minimum temperatures for April 2018 compared with temperature recorded for that period during the historical record (1900 to present). For further information go to Daily maximum temperatures for Australia

The rainfall and temperature outlooks presented below show the likelihood, represented as a percentage, of experiencing wetter or drier (and warmer or cooler) than median climatic conditions for the given outlook periods. Climate outlooks are generated by the Predictive Climate Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA), a dynamical (physics-based) climate model developed by the Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric research division.

For further information, go to About the climate outlooks

The current outlook reflects the neutral state of broad scale climate drivers, such as El Niño and La Niña and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), meaning they are currently having little influence on Australia's climate. Therefore, there is no strong shift in the outlook towards widespread wetter or drier conditions across most of Australia.

When broad scale drivers are neutral, the climate is often influenced by more local effects, such as the ocean temperature immediately surrounding the continent. Warmer than average temperatures currently in the Tasman Sea and associated low pressure may act to bring more onshore wind and rainfall to eastern Victoria and northeast Tasmania. Westerly winds that flow across southern Australia at this time of year are also likely to be weaker – reducing the chance of rainfall in western Western Australia.

There are roughly equal chances of a wetter or drier than average June for most of the country. Parts of inland Victoria and New South Wales have a moderate chance of a dry start to winter, as does the west of Western Australia (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 17 May 2018).

Chance of exceeding the median rainfall June 2018

The rainfall outlook for winter (June to August) 2018 indicates that there is no strong tendency towards either wetter or drier than average conditions for most of Australia. The main exceptions are in the west of Western Australia, where a drier season is more likely, and in the country's far southeast, where a wetter season is favoured. (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 17 May 2018).

Chance of exceeding the median rainfall June to August 2018

The maximum temperature outlook for winter 2018 indicates no strong signal toward either above or below temperatures for much of Australia. Both daytime and night-time winter temperatures are more likely to be warmer than average across southern Australia, while night-time winter temperatures are favoured to be cooler than average in Queensland (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 17 May 2018).

Chance of exceeding the median maximum temperature June to August 2018

Chance of exceeding the median minimum temperature June to August 2018

During the next eight days, little to no rainfall is expected across most of the country. Totals between 10 and 50 millimetres are forecast for isolated coastal regions of Queensland and southern Victoria. Heavier falls of between 50 and 200 millimetres are forecast for western Tasmania.

This rainfall forecast is produced from computer models. As it contains no input from weather forecasters, it is important to check local forecasts and warnings issued by the Bureau of Meteorology.

Total forecast rainfall (mm) for the period 17 May to 24 May 2018

©Commonwealth of Australia 2018, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 17/05/2018

Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) increased during the week ending 17 May 2018 by 61 gigalitres (GL) to 11,074 GL and are at 49 per cent of total capacity. This is 18 percentage points or 4,141 GL less than at the same time last year.

Visit the interactive Tableau data dashboard

Water storages in the Murray-Darling Basin (NSW, Victoria and Queensland)

Information on water available in dams used for irrigation the Murray–Darling Basin from 1 January 2001 to 10 May 2018 is shown above. The top horizontal (short dash) line indicates the storage level during a similar time last year. The bottom horizontal (long dash) line indicates the amount of ‘dead’ or unusable storage.

On 15 May 2018 NSW Department of Primary Industries – Water announced allocation increases of 4 per cent for NSW Murrumbidgee general security to 45 per cent

The current water allocations for the 2017–18 water trading season for licence holders in New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia water systems are summarised in the following table and charts.

Select water allocation percentages in the southern Murray-Darling Basin

Allocation prices in the southern Murray–Darling Basin increased slightly in the week ending 17 May  2018 to $163 per ML. This is an increase of $1 from the same time last week. This contrasts with an average price of $134 in April across the whole southern MDB, and $32 during the same month last year.

Allocation trade activity in the southern Murray–Darling Basin

The trades shown reflect estimated market activity and do not encompass all register trades. The price line reflects locally fitted price values for the entire southern Murray–Darling Basin. Data shown is current until 10 May 2018. Trade activity is shown as colour density.

Indicator	Week ended	Unit	Latest price	Price week prior	Weekly change	Price 12 months prior	Year on year change	Chart
Selected world indicator prices
Australian Dollar – AUD/USD Exchange Rate	16-May	US$/A$	0.75	0.75	0%	0.74	1%	chart
Wheat – US no. 2 hard red winter wheat, fob Gulf	15-May	US$/t	242	252	-4%	199	22%	chart
Coarse Grains – US no. 2 yellow corn, fob Gulf	16-May	US$/t	180	179	<1%	158	14%	chart
Canola – Rapeseed, Europe, fob Hamburg	15-May	US$/t	410	402	2%	430	-5%	chart
Cotton – Cotlook 'A' Index	16-May	USc/lb	93.0	93.3	<1%	90.6	3%	chart
Sugar – Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, no.11 contract	16-May	USc/lb	11.4	11.5	<1%	15.8	-28%	chart
Wool – Eastern Market Indicator	10-May	Ac/kg clean	1,891	1,836	3%	1,534	23%	chart
Wool – Western Market Indicator	11-May	Ac/kg clean	2,018	1,952	3%	1,527	32%	chart
Selected domestic crop indicator prices
Milling Wheat – ASW1, track quote, Port Adelaide, SA	15-May	A$/t	271	265	2%	192	41%	chart
Feed Wheat – General purpose, Sydney, NSW	15-May	A$/t	315	315	0%	235	34%	chart
Feed Barley – Sydney, NSW	15-May	A$/t	322	322	0%	211	53%	chart
Canola – Portland, Vic.	14-May	A$/t	515	517	<1%	520	<1%	chart
Grain Sorghum – Sydney, NSW	15-May	A$/t	395	395	0%	270	46%	chart
Selected domestic livestock indicator prices
Beef – Eastern Young Cattle Indicator	10-May	Ac/kg cwt	484	500	-3%	634	-24%	chart
Mutton – Mutton indicator (18–24 kg fat score 2–3), Vic	11-May	Ac/kg cwt	460	448	3%	530	-13%	chart
Lamb – Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator	10-May	Ac/kg cwt	598	595	<1%	641	-7%	chart
Pig – Eastern Seaboard (60.1–75 kg), average of buyers & sellers	04-May	Ac/kg cwt	260	269	-3%	300	-13%	chart
Goat – Eastern States (12.1–16 kg)	14-May	Ac/kg cwt	484	464	4%	656	-26%	chart
Live cattle – Light steers ex Darwin to Indonesia	12-May	Ac/kg lwt	280	280	0%	320	-13%	chart
Live sheep – Live wether (Muchea WA saleyard) to Middle East	14-May	$/head	95		na	116	-18%	chart
Global Dairy Trade (GDT) weighted average pricesa
Dairy – Whole milk powder	15-May	US$/t	3,226	3,231	<1%	3,312	-3%	chart
Dairy – Skim milk powder	15-May	US$/t	2,047	1,999	2%	1,998	2%	chart
Dairy – Cheddar cheese	15-May	US$/t	4,205	4,024	4%	3,726	13%	chart
Dairy – Anhydrous milk fat	15-May	US$/t	6,354	6,032	5%	6,631	-4%	chart

^a Global Dairy Trade prices are updated twice monthly on the first and third Tuesday of each month.

Movements in selected fruit and vegetable prices
Data attribution