Weekly update - 17 October 2019

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Weekly ​Australian Climate,
Water and Agricultural Update

Key issues

  • During the week ending 16 October 2019 rainfall was restricted to parts of eastern and southern Australia.   
  • Across cropping regions, rainfall totals of between 5 to 25 millimetres were recorded across parts of north-eastern New South Wales, southern Victoria, eastern Queensland, southern South Australia and much of Western Australia. Rainfall totals greater than 25 millimetres were recorded across cropping regions in parts of north-eastern Queensland.
  • The northern rainfall onset has occurred early in small parts of the eastern coast of Queensland that have recorded rainfall totals between 50 to 100 millimetres from 1 September to 15 October 2019. Elsewhere, the late withdrawal of the Indian monsoon and the prolonged positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is likely contribute to a delayed onset of the Australian monsoon.
  • Over the next eight days, frontal and trough activity is expected to result in limited rainfall over parts of eastern and southern Australia.
  • Across Australia’s cropping regions, the 8-day rainfall forecast indicates that falls of between 1 and 5 millimetres are expected across parts of eastern New South Wales, southern Victoria, eastern and central Queensland, eastern Western Australia and southern South Australia.
  • Water storage levels in the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) decreased between 9 October and 16 October 2019 by 66 gigalitres (GL). Current volume of water held in storage is 10,108 GL which represents 40 per cent of total capacity. This is 25 percentage points or 3,444 GL less than at the same time last year.
  • Allocation prices in the Victorian Murray below the Barmah Choke increased from $790 per ML on 30 September 2019 to $798 per ML on 7 October 2019. Trade restrictions are currently binding in several catchments, leading to differences in water prices across the Murray Darling Basin.

Climate

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Rainfall this week

During the week ending 16 October 2019 rainfall was restricted to parts of eastern and southern Australia.  

Across cropping regions, rainfall totals of between 5 to 25 millimetres were recorded across parts of north-eastern New South Wales, southern Victoria, eastern Queensland, southern South Australia and much of Western Australia. Rainfall totals greater than 25 millimetres were recorded across cropping regions in parts of north-eastern Queensland. Little to no rainfall was recorded across remaining cropping regions in western and southern New South Wales, much of Victoria, western Queensland and northern South Australia.

Rainfall for the week ending 16 October 2019

Map showing weekly rainfall totals in Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2019, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 16/10/2019

Note: The rainfall analyses and associated maps utilise data contained in the Bureau of Meteorology climate database, the Australian Data Archive for Meteorology (ADAM). The analyses are initially produced automatically from real-time data with limited quality control. They are intended to provide a general overview of rainfall across Australia as quickly as possible after the observations are received. For further information go to Weekly Rainfall Update.

Temperature anomalies this week

For the week ending 15 October  2019, maximum temperatures were 2°C to 10°C above average across large areas of western and central Australia, and minimum temperatures were 2°C to 10°C above average across large areas of Western Australia. In contrast, minimum temperatures were 2°C to 6°C below average across scattered parts of northern and eastern Australia. Average (- 2°C to 2°C) minimum and maximum temperatures were recorded across the remainder of the country.

Maximum temperature anomalies for the week ending 15 October 2019

Map showing maximum temperature anomalies for Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2019, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 15/10/2019

Minimum temperature anomalies for the week ending 15 October 2019

Map showing minimum temperature anomalies for Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2019, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 15/10/2019

Note: Spatial temperature analyses are based on historical weekly temperature data provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. These temperature anomaly maps show the departure of the maximum and minimum temperatures from the average over the 1961 to 1990 reference period. For further information go to Daily maximum temperatures for Australia.

Northern Rainfall Onset

The northern rainfall onset occurs when the total rainfall after 1 September reaches 50 millimetres, this is considered approximately the amount of rainfall required to stimulate plant growth. The northern rainfall onset has occurred early in small parts of the eastern coast of Queensland that have recorded rainfall totals between 50 to 100 millimetres from 1 September to 15 October 2019.

Elsewhere, the late withdrawal of the Indian monsoon that commenced on the 9 October 2019, is likely to lead to a late onset of the Australian monsoon, which is characterised by the reversal of the prevailing winds and widespread heavy rainfall in northern Australia. The prolonged positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) may have contributed to the late withdrawal of the Indian monsoon and could contribute to a delay of the Australian monsoon onset.

Median Northern Rainfall Onset in Neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Years

 

Northern Rainfall Totals since 1 September to 15 October 2019

 

Rainfall forecast for the next 8 days

Over the next eight days, frontal and trough activity is expected to result in limited rainfall over parts of eastern and southern Australia.

Rainfall totals of between 5 and 25 millimetres are forecast for isolated parts of southern Victoria, eastern Queensland and eastern Tasmania. Higher rainfall totals up to 50 millimetres are forecast for parts of western Tasmania.

In cropping regions, rainfall of between 1 and 5 millimetres is expected across parts of eastern New South Wales, southern Victoria, eastern and central Queensland, eastern Western Australia and southern South Australia. Little to no rainfall is expected across remaining cropping regions in New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland, South Australia and Western Australia.

Total forecast rainfall (mm) for the period 17 October to 24 October 2019

Map of the total forecast rainfall for the next 8 days. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description. 

©Commonwealth of Australia 2019, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 17/10/2019

Note: This rainfall forecast is produced from computer models. As the model outputs are not altered by weather forecasters, it is important to check local forecasts and warnings issued by the Bureau of Meteorology.

Commodities

Current indicators – 17 October 2019

Indicator Week ended Unit Latest price Price week prior Weekly change Price 12 months prior Year on year change Chart

Selected World Indicator Prices

Australian Dollar – AUD/USD Exchange Rate 16-Oct US$/A$ 0.68 0.67 1%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. 0.71 -4%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Wheat – US no. 2 hard red winter wheat, fob Gulf 15-Oct US$/t 213 207 3%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. 241 -12%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Coarse Grains – US no. 2 yellow corn, fob Gulf 16-Oct US$/t 167 167 0% 164 2%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Canola – Rapeseed, Europe, fob Hamburg 15-Oct US$/t 425 426 <1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. 438 -3%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Cotton – Cotlook 'A' Index 16-Oct USc/lb 73.1 72.1 1%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. 87.2 -16%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Sugar – Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, no.11 contract 16-Oct USc/lb 12.5 12.7 -2%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. 13.3 -6%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Wool – Eastern Market Indicator 10-Oct Ac/kg clean 1,543 1,511 2%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. 2,023 -24%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Wool – Western Market Indicator 11-Oct Ac/kg clean 1,653 1,610 3%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. 2,170 -24%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart

Selected domestic crop indicator prices

Milling Wheat – ASW1, track quote, Port Adelaide, SA 08-Oct A$/t 308 315 -2%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. 417 -26%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Feed Wheat – General purpose, Sydney, NSW 16-Oct A$/t 385 390 -1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. 455 -15%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Feed Barley – Sydney, NSW 16-Oct A$/t 370 380 -3%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. 420 -12%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Grain Sorghum – Sydney, NSW 16-Oct A$/t 345 345 0% 410 -16%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart

Selected domestic livestock indicator prices

Beef – Eastern Young Cattle Indicator 10-Oct Ac/kg cwt 486 490 <1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. 498 -2%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart
Mutton – Mutton indicator (18–24 kg fat score 2–3), Vic 11-Oct Ac/kg cwt 621 601 3%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. 386 61%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Lamb – Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator 10-Oct Ac/kg cwt 806 804 <1%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. 701 15%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Pig – Eastern Seaboard (60.1–75 kg), average of buyers & sellers 20-Sep Ac/kg cwt 393 384 2%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. 265 48%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Goat – Eastern States (12.1–16 kg) 14-Oct Ac/kg cwt 870 876 <1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. 538 62%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Live cattle – Light steers ex Darwin to Indonesia 12-Oct Ac/kg lwt 315 315 0% 300 5%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Live sheep – Live wether (Muchea WA saleyard) to Middle East 16-Sep $/head 99 na 0% na 0% chart

Global Dairy Trade (GDT) weighted average prices a

Dairy – Whole milk powder 15-Oct US$/t 3,133 3,141 <1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. 2,729 15%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Dairy – Skim milk powder 15-Oct US$/t 2,743 2,674 3%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. 1,977 39%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Dairy – Cheddar cheese 15-Oct US$/t 3,636 3,717 -2%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. 3,404 7%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. chart
Dairy – Anhydrous milk fat 15-Oct US$/t 5,065 4,997 1%This is an image of an white arrow in a green circle indicating an increase in percentage points. 5,106 <1%This is an image of a white arrow in a red circle indicating a decrease in percentage points. chart

a Global Dairy Trade prices are updated twice monthly on the first and third Tuesday of each month.

Selected world indicator prices
Selected domestic crop indicator prices
Selected domestic livestock indicator prices
Global dairy trade weighted average prices
Movements in selected fruit and vegetable prices
Data attribution

Water

Water storages, water markets and water allocations - current week

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Last reviewed: 13 January 2021
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