Weekly update - 17 October 2019
Key issues
- During the week ending 16 October 2019 rainfall was restricted to parts of eastern and southern Australia.
- Across cropping regions, rainfall totals of between 5 to 25 millimetres were recorded across parts of north-eastern New South Wales, southern Victoria, eastern Queensland, southern South Australia and much of Western Australia. Rainfall totals greater than 25 millimetres were recorded across cropping regions in parts of north-eastern Queensland.
- The northern rainfall onset has occurred early in small parts of the eastern coast of Queensland that have recorded rainfall totals between 50 to 100 millimetres from 1 September to 15 October 2019. Elsewhere, the late withdrawal of the Indian monsoon and the prolonged positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is likely contribute to a delayed onset of the Australian monsoon.
- Over the next eight days, frontal and trough activity is expected to result in limited rainfall over parts of eastern and southern Australia.
- Across Australia’s cropping regions, the 8-day rainfall forecast indicates that falls of between 1 and 5 millimetres are expected across parts of eastern New South Wales, southern Victoria, eastern and central Queensland, eastern Western Australia and southern South Australia.
- Water storage levels in the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) decreased between 9 October and 16 October 2019 by 66 gigalitres (GL). Current volume of water held in storage is 10,108 GL which represents 40 per cent of total capacity. This is 25 percentage points or 3,444 GL less than at the same time last year.
- Allocation prices in the Victorian Murray below the Barmah Choke increased from $790 per ML on 30 September 2019 to $798 per ML on 7 October 2019. Trade restrictions are currently binding in several catchments, leading to differences in water prices across the Murray Darling Basin.
Climate
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Rainfall this week
During the week ending 16 October 2019 rainfall was restricted to parts of eastern and southern Australia.
Across cropping regions, rainfall totals of between 5 to 25 millimetres were recorded across parts of north-eastern New South Wales, southern Victoria, eastern Queensland, southern South Australia and much of Western Australia. Rainfall totals greater than 25 millimetres were recorded across cropping regions in parts of north-eastern Queensland. Little to no rainfall was recorded across remaining cropping regions in western and southern New South Wales, much of Victoria, western Queensland and northern South Australia.
Rainfall for the week ending 16 October 2019
©Commonwealth of Australia 2019, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 16/10/2019
Note: The rainfall analyses and associated maps utilise data contained in the Bureau of Meteorology climate database, the Australian Data Archive for Meteorology (ADAM). The analyses are initially produced automatically from real-time data with limited quality control. They are intended to provide a general overview of rainfall across Australia as quickly as possible after the observations are received. For further information go to Weekly Rainfall Update.
Temperature anomalies this week
For the week ending 15 October 2019, maximum temperatures were 2°C to 10°C above average across large areas of western and central Australia, and minimum temperatures were 2°C to 10°C above average across large areas of Western Australia. In contrast, minimum temperatures were 2°C to 6°C below average across scattered parts of northern and eastern Australia. Average (- 2°C to 2°C) minimum and maximum temperatures were recorded across the remainder of the country.
Maximum temperature anomalies for the week ending 15 October 2019
©Commonwealth of Australia 2019, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 15/10/2019
Minimum temperature anomalies for the week ending 15 October 2019
©Commonwealth of Australia 2019, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 15/10/2019
Note: Spatial temperature analyses are based on historical weekly temperature data provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. These temperature anomaly maps show the departure of the maximum and minimum temperatures from the average over the 1961 to 1990 reference period. For further information go to Daily maximum temperatures for Australia.
Northern Rainfall Onset
The northern rainfall onset occurs when the total rainfall after 1 September reaches 50 millimetres, this is considered approximately the amount of rainfall required to stimulate plant growth. The northern rainfall onset has occurred early in small parts of the eastern coast of Queensland that have recorded rainfall totals between 50 to 100 millimetres from 1 September to 15 October 2019.
Elsewhere, the late withdrawal of the Indian monsoon that commenced on the 9 October 2019, is likely to lead to a late onset of the Australian monsoon, which is characterised by the reversal of the prevailing winds and widespread heavy rainfall in northern Australia. The prolonged positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) may have contributed to the late withdrawal of the Indian monsoon and could contribute to a delay of the Australian monsoon onset.
Median Northern Rainfall Onset in Neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Years
Northern Rainfall Totals since 1 September to 15 October 2019
Rainfall forecast for the next 8 days
Over the next eight days, frontal and trough activity is expected to result in limited rainfall over parts of eastern and southern Australia.
Rainfall totals of between 5 and 25 millimetres are forecast for isolated parts of southern Victoria, eastern Queensland and eastern Tasmania. Higher rainfall totals up to 50 millimetres are forecast for parts of western Tasmania.
In cropping regions, rainfall of between 1 and 5 millimetres is expected across parts of eastern New South Wales, southern Victoria, eastern and central Queensland, eastern Western Australia and southern South Australia. Little to no rainfall is expected across remaining cropping regions in New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland, South Australia and Western Australia.
Total forecast rainfall (mm) for the period 17 October to 24 October 2019
©Commonwealth of Australia 2019, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 17/10/2019
Note: This rainfall forecast is produced from computer models. As the model outputs are not altered by weather forecasters, it is important to check local forecasts and warnings issued by the Bureau of Meteorology.
Commodities
Current indicators – 17 October 2019
| Indicator | Week ended | Unit | Latest price | Price week prior | Weekly change | Price 12 months prior | Year on year change | Chart |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Selected World Indicator Prices |
||||||||
| Australian Dollar – AUD/USD Exchange Rate | 16-Oct | US$/A$ | 0.68 | 0.67 | 1% |
0.71 | -4% |
chart |
| Wheat – US no. 2 hard red winter wheat, fob Gulf | 15-Oct | US$/t | 213 | 207 | 3% |
241 | -12% |
chart |
| Coarse Grains – US no. 2 yellow corn, fob Gulf | 16-Oct | US$/t | 167 | 167 | 0% | 164 | 2% |
chart |
| Canola – Rapeseed, Europe, fob Hamburg | 15-Oct | US$/t | 425 | 426 | <1% |
438 | -3% |
chart |
| Cotton – Cotlook 'A' Index | 16-Oct | USc/lb | 73.1 | 72.1 | 1% |
87.2 | -16% |
chart |
| Sugar – Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, no.11 contract | 16-Oct | USc/lb | 12.5 | 12.7 | -2% |
13.3 | -6% |
chart |
| Wool – Eastern Market Indicator | 10-Oct | Ac/kg clean | 1,543 | 1,511 | 2% |
2,023 | -24% |
chart |
| Wool – Western Market Indicator | 11-Oct | Ac/kg clean | 1,653 | 1,610 | 3% |
2,170 | -24% |
chart |
Selected domestic crop indicator prices |
||||||||
| Milling Wheat – ASW1, track quote, Port Adelaide, SA | 08-Oct | A$/t | 308 | 315 | -2% |
417 | -26% |
chart |
| Feed Wheat – General purpose, Sydney, NSW | 16-Oct | A$/t | 385 | 390 | -1% |
455 | -15% |
chart |
| Feed Barley – Sydney, NSW | 16-Oct | A$/t | 370 | 380 | -3% |
420 | -12% |
chart |
| Grain Sorghum – Sydney, NSW | 16-Oct | A$/t | 345 | 345 | 0% | 410 | -16% |
chart |
Selected domestic livestock indicator prices |
||||||||
| Beef – Eastern Young Cattle Indicator | 10-Oct | Ac/kg cwt | 486 | 490 | <1% |
498 | -2% |
chart |
| Mutton – Mutton indicator (18–24 kg fat score 2–3), Vic | 11-Oct | Ac/kg cwt | 621 | 601 | 3% |
386 | 61% |
chart |
| Lamb – Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator | 10-Oct | Ac/kg cwt | 806 | 804 | <1% |
701 | 15% |
chart |
| Pig – Eastern Seaboard (60.1–75 kg), average of buyers & sellers | 20-Sep | Ac/kg cwt | 393 | 384 | 2% |
265 | 48% |
chart |
| Goat – Eastern States (12.1–16 kg) | 14-Oct | Ac/kg cwt | 870 | 876 | <1% |
538 | 62% |
chart |
| Live cattle – Light steers ex Darwin to Indonesia | 12-Oct | Ac/kg lwt | 315 | 315 | 0% | 300 | 5% |
chart |
| Live sheep – Live wether (Muchea WA saleyard) to Middle East | 16-Sep | $/head | 99 | na | 0% | na | 0% | chart |
Global Dairy Trade (GDT) weighted average prices a |
||||||||
| Dairy – Whole milk powder | 15-Oct | US$/t | 3,133 | 3,141 | <1% |
2,729 | 15% |
chart |
| Dairy – Skim milk powder | 15-Oct | US$/t | 2,743 | 2,674 | 3% |
1,977 | 39% |
chart |
| Dairy – Cheddar cheese | 15-Oct | US$/t | 3,636 | 3,717 | -2% |
3,404 | 7% |
chart |
| Dairy – Anhydrous milk fat | 15-Oct | US$/t | 5,065 | 4,997 | 1% |
5,106 | <1% |
chart |
a Global Dairy Trade prices are updated twice monthly on the first and third Tuesday of each month.
Selected world indicator prices
Selected domestic crop indicator prices
Selected domestic livestock indicator prices
Global dairy trade weighted average prices
Movements in selected fruit and vegetable prices
Data attribution
Water
Water storages, water markets and water allocations - current week
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