Weekly update - 20 February 2020
Key issues
- During the week ending 19 February 2020 rainfall was primarily recorded across parts of northern and eastern Australia. These showers and thunderstorms were generated by several persistent low pressure troughs drawing in humid air from the northern and east of Australia.
- In Australia’s summer cropping regions, rainfall totals of between 10 and 50 millimetres were recorded across much of Queensland and heavier falls of between 25 and 100 millimetres were recorded across much of northern New South Wales during the week ending 19 January 2020.
- While the rainfall in cropping regions will support summer crops and provide a good base for winter cropping, several months of above average rainfall would be needed to provide a sustained recovery from current long-term deficiencies that persist across large areas of Australia.
- The northern rainfall onset has occurred across much of Western Australia, the Northern Territory and Queensland. In most areas where the northern rainfall onset has occurred, it has arrived more than a month later than the long-term average onset date.
- Over the next eight days, rainfall totals of between 25 and 100 millimetres are forecast for areas of northern and north-eastern Australia. A tropical low pressure system in the Gulf of Carpentaria has the potential to develop into a tropical cyclone over the week and is expected to bring rainfall totals in excess of 150 millimetres to far northern Queensland and north of the Northern Territory.
- Across summer cropping regions, rainfall of between 10 and 50 millimetres is expected across much of Queensland and northern New South Wales. Heavier falls in excess of 50 millimetres are expected across parts of central Queensland cropping region during the next 8 days.
- Water storage levels in the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) increased between 12 February 2020 and 19 February 2020 by 134 gigalitres (GL). Current volume of water held in storage is 7,914 GL which represents 31 per cent of total capacity.
- Allocation prices in the Victorian Murray below the Barmah Choke increased from $530 per ML on 13 February 2020 to $635 per ML on 20 February 2020.
Climate
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Rainfall this week
During the week ending 19 February 2020 rainfall was primarily recorded across parts of northern and eastern Australia. These showers and thunderstorms were generated by several persistent low pressure troughs drawing in humid air from the northern and east of Australia.
In Australia’s summer cropping regions, rainfall totals of between 10 and 50 millimetres were recorded across much of Queensland and heavier falls of between 25 and 100 millimetres were recorded across much of northern New South Wales during the week ending 19 January 2020.
Rainfall for the week ending 19 February 2020
©Commonwealth of Australia 2020, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 19/2/2020
Note: The rainfall analyses and associated maps utilise data contained in the Bureau of Meteorology climate database, the Australian Data Archive for Meteorology (ADAM). The analyses are initially produced automatically from real-time data with limited quality control. They are intended to provide a general overview of rainfall across Australia as quickly as possible after the observations are received. For further information go to Weekly Rainfall Update.
Temperature anomalies this week
For the week ending 18 February 2020, maximum temperatures were 2°C to 6°C above average across parts of northern and central Australia. Similarly, minimum temperatures were 2°C to 6°C above average across parts of south-eastern and central Australia. Average (- 2°C to 2°C) minimum temperatures were recorded across the remainder of the country.
Maximum temperature anomalies for the week ending 18 February 2020
©Commonwealth of Australia 2020, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 19/02/2020
Minimum temperature anomalies for the week ending 18 February 2020
©Commonwealth of Australia 2020, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 19/02/2020
Note: Spatial temperature analyses are based on historical weekly temperature data provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. These temperature anomaly maps show the departure of the maximum and minimum temperatures from the average over the 1961 to 1990 reference period. For further information go to Daily maximum temperature for Australia.
Northern Rainfall Onset
The northern rainfall onset occurs when the total rainfall after 1 September reaches 50 millimetres. This is considered approximately the amount of rainfall required to stimulate plant growth. From 1 September 2019 to 18 February 2020 the northern rainfall onset has occurred across much of Western Australia, the Northern Territory and Queensland. Rainfall totals in excess of 200 millimetres have been recorded across large areas of northern Australia, with rainfall totals greater than 400 millimetres recorded across far northern tropical Australia.
In most areas where the northern rainfall onset has occurred, it has arrived more than a month later than the long-term average onset date. The prolonged positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) that persisted in 2019 and the late withdrawal of the Indian monsoon have likely influenced the late onset of the Australian monsoon.
Northern rainfall totals for the period 1 September 2019 to 18 February 2020
Number of days earlier or later than the long-term average onset date
Rainfall forecast for the next 8 days
Over the next eight days, rainfall totals of between 25 and 100 millimetres are forecast for areas of northern and north-eastern Australia. A tropical low pressure system in the Gulf of Carpentaria has the potential to develop into a tropical cyclone over the week and is expected to bring rainfall totals in excess of 150 millimetres to far northern Queensland and north of the Northern Territory. Lighter falls of between 10 and 25 millimetres are forecast for parts of northern and eastern New South Wales, eastern Victoria and the west of Western Australia.
These falls will likely support northern pasture growth and summer crops, and continue to build soil moisture across cropping regions in Queensland.
In summer cropping regions, rainfall of between 10 and 50 millimetres is expected across much of Queensland and northern New South Wales. Heavier falls in excess of 50 millimetres are expected across parts of central Queensland cropping region during the next 8 days.
Total forecast rainfall (mm) for the period 20 February to 27 February 2020
©Commonwealth of Australia 2020, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 20/02/2020
Note: This rainfall forecast is produced from computer models. As the model outputs are not altered by weather forecasters, it is important to check local forecasts and warnings issued by the Bureau of Meteorology.
Commodities
Current indicators – 20 February 2020
| Indicator | Week ended | Unit | Latest price | Price week prior | Weekly change | Price 12 months prior | Year on year change | Chart |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Selected World Indicator Prices |
||||||||
| Australian Dollar – AUD/USD Exchange Rate | 19-Feb | US$/A$ | 0.67 | 0.67 | 0% | 0.71 | -6% |
chart |
| Wheat – US no. 2 hard red winter wheat, fob Gulf | 18-Feb | US$/t | 231 | 231 | 0% | 235 | -2% |
chart |
| Coarse Grains – US no. 2 yellow corn, fob Gulf | 19-Feb | US$/t | 170 | 171 | <1% |
172 | -1% |
chart |
| Canola – Rapeseed, Europe, fob Hamburg | 26-Nov | US$/t | 423 | 423 | 0% | 423 | 0% | chart |
| Cotton – Cotlook 'A' Index | 20-Feb | USc/lb | 77.3 | 76.9 | <1% |
80.0 | -3% |
chart |
| Sugar – Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, no.11 contract | 20-Feb | USc/lb | 15.2 | 15.4 | -1% |
13.0 | 17% |
chart |
| Wool – Eastern Market Indicator | 13-Feb | Ac/kg clean | 1,568 | 1,577 | <1% |
1,968 | -20% |
chart |
| Wool – Western Market Indicator | 13-Feb | Ac/kg clean | 1,667 | 1,709 | -2% |
2,101 | -21% |
chart |
Selected domestic crop indicator prices |
||||||||
| Milling Wheat – ASW1, track quote, Port Adelaide, SA | 04-Feb | A$/t | 335 | 342 | -2% |
349 | -4% |
chart |
| Feed Wheat – General purpose, Sydney, NSW | 07-Jan | A$/t | 442 | 447 | -1% |
455 | -3% |
chart |
| Feed Barley – Sydney, NSW | 07-Jan | A$/t | 385 | 382 | <1% |
438 | -12% |
chart |
| Grain Sorghum – Sydney, NSW | 07-Jan | A$/t | 467 | 477 | -2% |
432 | 8% |
chart |
Selected domestic livestock indicator prices |
||||||||
| Beef – Eastern Young Cattle Indicator | 13-Feb | Ac/kg cwt | 662 | 623 | 6% |
460 | 44% |
chart |
| Mutton – Mutton indicator (18–24 kg fat score 2–3), Vic | 13-Feb | Ac/kg cwt | 690 | 629 | 10% |
393 | 76% |
chart |
| Lamb – Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator | 13-Feb | Ac/kg cwt | 905 | 829 | 9% |
643 | 41% |
chart |
| Pig – Eastern Seaboard (60.1–75 kg), average of buyers & sellers | 07-Feb | Ac/kg cwt | 429 | 429 | 0% | 328 | 31% |
chart |
| Goat – Eastern States (12.1–16 kg) | 17-Feb | Ac/kg cwt | 893 | 883 | 1% |
588 | 52% |
chart |
| Live cattle – Light steers ex Darwin to Indonesia | 15-Feb | Ac/kg lwt | 360 | 340 | 6% |
340 | 6% |
chart |
| Live sheep – Live wether (Muchea WA saleyard) to Middle East | 09-Dec | $/head | 105 | 140 | -25% |
108 | -3% |
chart |
Global Dairy Trade (GDT) weighted average prices a |
||||||||
| Dairy – Whole milk powder | 18-Feb | US$/t | 2,966 | 3,039 | -2% |
3,022 | -2% |
chart |
| Dairy – Skim milk powder | 18-Feb | US$/t | 2,840 | 2,907 | -2% |
2,580 | 10% |
chart |
| Dairy – Cheddar cheese | 18-Feb | US$/t | 4,526 | 4,302 | 5% |
3,667 | 23% |
chart |
| Dairy – Anhydrous milk fat | 18-Feb | US$/t | 4,379 | 4,626 | -5% |
5,620 | -22% |
chart |
a Global Dairy Trade prices are updated twice monthly on the first and third Tuesday of each month.
Selected world indicator prices
Selected domestic crop indicator prices
Selected domestic livestock indicator prices
Global dairy trade weighted average prices
Movements in selected fruit and vegetable prices
Data attribution
Water
Water storages, water markets and water allocations - current week
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