Weekly update - 20 August 2020

During the week ending 19 August 2020 complex low-pressure systems and associated cold fronts developed, bringing moderate rainfall and strong winds to parts of southern Australia. Rainfall totals of between 10 and 50 millimetres were recorded across parts of central, northern and south-eastern New South Wales, southern Queensland, south-eastern South Australia, south-western Western Australia and much of southern Victoria and Tasmania. Rainfall in excess of 50 millimetres was recorded across parts of northern and eastern Tasmania and isolated parts of south-eastern New South Wales and eastern Victoria.

In Australia’s cropping regions, rainfall totals of between 10 and 50 millimetres were recorded across parts of central, south-eastern and north-eastern New South Wales, south-eastern Queensland, southern Victoria, central South Australia and Western Australia, excluding parts of the central wheat belt. Lower rainfall totals between 1 and 10 millimetres were recorded across cropping regions in central and southern Queensland and the remainder of northern and south-western, northern Victoria, western and eastern South Australia and central Western Australia during the week ending 19 August 2020.

These moderate but patchy falls will be particularly beneficial for cropping regions in parts of southern Victoria, South Australia and Western Australia that have generally recorded average or lower winter rainfall to‑date. The falls will provide a boost to soil moisture and stabilising crop yield potential and pasture growth rates.

Rainfall for the week ending 19 August 2020

©Commonwealth of Australia 2020, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 19/08/2020

Note: The rainfall analyses and associated maps utilise data contained in the Bureau of Meteorology climate database, the Australian Data Archive for Meteorology (ADAM). The analyses are initially produced automatically from real-time data with limited quality control. They are intended to provide a general overview of rainfall across Australia as quickly as possible after the observations are received. For further information go to http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/rainfall/

Crop production is affected by long-term trends in average rainfall and temperature, interannual climate variability, shocks during specific phenological stages, and extreme weather events (IPCC 2012). Some crops are more tolerant than others to certain types of stresses, and at each phenological stage, different types of stresses affect each crop species in different ways.

The precipitation anomalies and outlooks presented here give an indication of the current and future state of production conditions for the major grain and oilseed producing countries which are responsible for over 80% of global production. This is an important input to assessing the global grain supply outlook. The July rainfall percentiles and current production conditions presented here show a marginal improvement from global conditions seen during May, which were used to formulate ABARES forecasts of global grain supplies and the impact on world prices in its June 2020 edition of Agricultural commodities.

July rainfall percentiles and current production conditions

As of the end of July 2020, rainfall was generally favourable for the world’s major grain and oil producing regions.

In the Northern Hemisphere, July rainfall was above average in parts of the United Kingdom, northern Europe, the central plains of the United States, northern Canada, western and central Russia, southern China, central Africa and southern India. Rainfall was generally average across the remainder of major grain and oil producing regions in the northern hemisphere.
In the southern hemisphere, July rainfall was generally below average across parts of Australia, Brazil and Argentina. Rainfall was generally average across the remainder of major grain and oil producing regions in the southern hemisphere.

Global precipitation percentiles, July 2020

Note: The world precipitation percentiles indicate a ranking of precipitation for July, with the driest (0th percentile) being 0 on the scale and the wettest (100th percentile) being 1 on the scale. Percentiles are based on precipitation estimates from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center's Climate Anomaly Monitoring System Outgoing Precipitation Index dataset. Precipitation estimates for July 2020 are compared with rainfall recorded for that period during the 1981 to 2010 base period.
Source: International Research Institute for Climate and Society

As at 28 July 2020 global production conditions were generally favourable.

In the southern hemisphere, conditions for wheat crop development were generally favourable for Australia and mixed for Argentina. In the northern hemisphere, conditions were mixed in the European Union as harvest continues, the United Kingdom and Ukraine. Conditions were generally favourable for winter wheat harvesting in Turkey, winter wheat harvesting and spring wheat in Kazakhstan, Canada and the United States and spring wheat in China. Conditions were generally favourable in the Russian Federation for spring wheat and winter wheat harvest with the exception of southern regions, where winter wheat yields have been affected by drought conditions.

Growing conditions for maize were generally favourable for harvest in Argentina and harvest of the autumn-winter crop and for sowing of the spring-summer crop in Mexico. Harvest is well underway in Brazil under mainly exceptional conditions, with the exception of the south where dry conditions have impacted crop development. Conditions are generally favourable for the United States, Canada, the European Union and India, but some mixed conditions due to dryness in Ukraine and the Russian Federation and flooding in China.

Conditions were generally favourable for harvesting of early-season rice and the growth of late-season rice in China, Thailand, Japan, Philippines and the United States. Rice transplanting in India is continuing under favourable conditions. In Vietnam conditions are mixed with reduced yields in the south due to dry conditions, while plating in the north proceeds under favourable conditions. In Indonesia the harvest of wet-season crops is wrapping up with a reduction in yields and harvested area due to a prolonged drought, while unseasonal dry season rainfall has delayed planting of dry-season crops.

Growing conditions for soybeans were generally favourable for the United States, Canada, China and India. In Ukraine conditions are generally favourable, however a lack of rainfall and low soil moisture in the central and southern regions is of some possible concern.

Crop conditions, AMIS countries, 28 July 2020

AMIS Agricultural Market Information System.
Source: AMIS