Weekly update - 21 June 2018
Key issues
- During the week ending 20 June 2018 little to no rainfall was recorded across much of mainland Australia, with falls restricted to the west and south of the country and areas of central Queensland.
- For the week ending 19 June 2018, maximum and minimum temperatures were generally average across much of the country. The highest anomalies were between 6°C and 8°C above average in central Australia.
- During the next eight days, rainfall is expected to be restricted to the south-west and east of mainland Australia and western Tasmania. Little to no rainfall is forecast across much of the remainder of the country.
- In cropping regions, rainfall totals of between 1 and 25 millimetres are forecast for western and central Western Australia. Higher totals of between 5 and 100 millimetres are expected for cropping regions in northern New South Wales and Queensland. Little to no rainfall is forecast for cropping regions in central and southern New South Wales, Victoria, South Australia and northern and eastern Western Australia.
- The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains in a neutral state—neither El Niño nor La Niña. However, the latest climate model outlooks and recent warming in the tropical Pacific Ocean indicate that the chance of El Niño forming in late spring has increased. As a result, the Bureau of Meteorology has raised its ENSO Outlook status to El Niño WATCH.
- If El Niño were to form in 2018 it would likely be very late in the year, at which point it could have little impact on rainfall patterns in Australia. The impact of an El Niño event on agricultural production is not uniform and is difficult to predict. The effect of El Niño on Australia’s agricultural production depends on the intensity of the event and the timing of rainfall.
- Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) increased during the week ending 21 June 2018 by 206 gigalitres (GL) to 11,628 GL, and are at 51 per cent of total capacity. This is 17 percentage points or 3,936 GL less than at the same time last year.
- Allocation prices in the southern Murray–Darling Basin declined in the week ending 21 June 2018 to $172 per ML. This is a decrease of $11 from the same time last week.
Climate
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Rainfall this week
During the week ending 20 June 2018 little to no rainfall was recorded across much of mainland Australia, with falls restricted to the west and south of the country and areas of central Queensland. Rainfall totals of between 10 and 50 millimetres were recorded across parts of south-eastern and coastal New South Wales, southern and eastern Victoria, areas of central Queensland, the south of South Australia, the far south-west and north-west of Western Australia, and Tasmania.
Higher totals of between 50 and 150 millimetres were recorded across coastal and alpine regions of New South Wales, alpine and southern areas of Victoria and western Tasmania. The highest recorded weekly total was 234 millimetres at Falls Creek (Rocky Valley) in northern Victoria.
In cropping regions, rainfall totals of between 5 and 50 millimetres were recorded in Victoria, South Australia and the southern cropping regions of New South Wales. In Western Australia, rainfall totals of between 5 and 15 millimetres were recorded across most cropping regions. Little to no rainfall was recorded across cropping regions in Queensland and northern New South Wales.
Rainfall analysis for the week ending 20 June 2018
©Commonwealth of Australia 2018, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 13/6/2018
Note: The rainfall analyses and associated maps utilise data contained in the Bureau of Meteorology climate database, the Australian Data Archive for Meteorology (ADAM). The analyses are initially produced automatically from real-time data with limited quality control. They are intended to provide a general overview of rainfall across Australia as quickly as possible after the observations are received. For further information go to Weekly Rainfall Update.
Temperature anomalies this week
For the week ending 19 June 2018, maximum and minimum temperatures were generally average across much of the country. Maximum temperatures were slightly below average (-2 C to -6 C) across much of central and western Queensland, and scattered areas of south-eastern Australia. Minimum temperatures were slightly above average (2 C to 6 C) across parts of northern Australia and slightly below average (-2 C to -4 C) across a broad band of central Australia, extending from central Western Australia to southeast Queensland.
Maximum temperature anomalies for the week ending 19 June 2018
©Commonwealth of Australia 2018, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 20/6/2018
Minimum temperature anomalies for the week ending 19 June 2018
![Map showing minimum temperature anomalies in Australia. Image provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. Please refer to accompanying text for a more detailed description.]](/sites/default/files/abares/monitor/publishingimages/min-temp-anom-190618.png)
©Commonwealth of Australia 2018, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 20/6/2018
Note: Spatial temperature analyses are based on historical weekly temperature data provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. These temperature anomaly maps show the departure of the maximum and minimum temperatures from the average over the 1961 to 1990 reference period. For further information go to Daily maximum temperature for Australia.
Rainfall forecast for the next 8 days
During the next eight days, rainfall is expected to be restricted to the south-west and east of mainland Australia and western Tasmania. Little to no rainfall is forecast across much of the remainder of the country. Totals between 10 and 50 millimetres are forecast for parts of north-eastern New South Wales, southern-eastern and coastal areas of Queensland, the far south-west of Western Australia, and western Tasmania. Heavier falls of between 50 and 200 millimetres are forecast for parts of north-eastern New South Wales and southern-eastern Queensland.
In cropping regions, rainfall totals of between 1 and 25 millimetres are forecast for western and central Western Australia. Higher totals of between 5 and 100 millimetres are expected for cropping regions in northern New South Wales and Queensland. Little to no rainfall is forecast for cropping regions in central and southern New South Wales, Victoria, South Australia and northern and eastern Western Australia.
This rainfall forecast is produced from computer models. As it contains no input from weather forecasters, it is important to check local forecasts and warnings issued by the Bureau of Meteorology.
Total forecast rainfall (mm) for the period 21 to 28 June 2018
Source: ©Commonwealth of Australia 2018, Australian Bureau of Meteorology - Issued: 21/6/2018
El Niño–Southern Oscillation Update
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains in a neutral state—neither El Niño nor La Niña. However, the latest climate model outlooks and recent warming in the tropical Pacific Ocean indicates that the chance of El Niño forming in late spring has increased. As a result, the Bureau of Meteorology has raised its ENSO Outlook status to El Niño WATCH.
Oceanic indicators are currently neutral, but are showing some signs of potential El Niño development. Sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific Ocean, though currently neutral, have been slowly warming since April. More importantly, waters below the surface of the tropical Pacific are now warmer than average—a common precursor for El Niño development.
The majority of international climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology indicate that the tropical Pacific Ocean will continue to warm but stay in the neutral range during July and August. However, five of eight climate models indicate that ocean temperatures are likely to reach El Niño thresholds by November 2018, while a sixth model prediction falling just short of threshold values. During El Niño, rainfall in eastern Australian is typically below average during winter and spring (Bureau of Meteorology, ‘ENSO Wrap-Up’, 19 June 2018).
If El Niño was to form in 2018 it is likely to be very late in the year, at which point it may have little impact of rainfall patterns in Australia. The impact of an El Niño event on agricultural production is not uniform and is difficult to predict. While reduced rainfall is often associated with El Niño, the timing of the rainfall can have a significant effect on crop and pasture production. The effect of El Niño on Australia’s agricultural production depends on the intensity of the event and the timing of rainfall.
Commodities
Current indicators – 21 June 2018
| Indicator | Week ended | Unit | Latest price | Price week prior | Weekly change | Price 12 months prior | Year on year change | Chart |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Selected world indicator prices |
||||||||
| Australian Dollar – AUD/USD Exchange Rate | 20-Jun | US$/A$ | 0.75 | 0.76 | -1% |
0.76 | -1% |
chart |
| Wheat – US no. 2 hard red winter wheat, fob Gulf | 19-Jun | US$/t | 244 | 254 | -4% |
236 | 3% |
chart |
| Coarse Grains – US no. 2 yellow corn, fob Gulf | 20-Jun | US$/t | 162 | 169 | -4% |
161 | <1% |
chart |
| Canola – Rapeseed, Europe, fob Hamburga | 19-Jun | US$/t | 389 | 399 | -3% |
403 | -3% |
chart |
| Cotton – Cotlook 'A' Index | 20-Jun | USc/lb | 98.3 | 101.0 | -3% |
83.5 | 18% |
chart |
| Sugar – Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, no.11 contract | 20-Jun | USc/lb | 12.1 | 12.2 | <1% |
13.4 | -10% |
chart |
| Wool – Eastern Market Indicator | 14-Jun | Ac/kg clean | 2,021 | 2,011 | <1% |
1,506 | 34% |
chart |
| Wool – Western Market Indicator | 15-Jun | Ac/kg clean | 2,188 | 2,167 | <1% |
1,567 | 40% |
chart |
Selected domestic crop indicator prices |
||||||||
| Milling Wheat – ASW1, track quote, Port Adelaide, SA | 19-Jun | A$/t | 285 | 290 | -2% |
225 | 27% |
chart |
| Feed Wheat – General purpose, Sydney, NSW | 20-Jun | A$/t | 375 | 375 | 0% | 255 | 47% |
chart |
| Feed Barley – Sydney, NSW | 20-Jun | A$/t | 350 | 350 | 0% | 236 | 48% |
chart |
| Canola – Portland, Vic. | 18-Jun | A$/t | 513 | 513 | -1% |
507 | 1% |
chart |
| Grain Sorghum – Sydney, NSW | 20-Jun | A$/t | 355 | 355 | 0% | 284 | 25% |
chart |
Selected domestic livestock indicator prices |
||||||||
| Beef – Eastern Young Cattle Indicator | 14-Jun | Ac/kg cwt | 479 | 477 | <1% |
643 | -26% |
chart |
| Mutton – Mutton indicator (18-24 kg fat score 2-3), Vic | 01-Jun | Ac/kg cwt | 486 | 479 | 1% |
557 | -13% |
chart |
| Lamb – Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator | 14-Jun | Ac/kg cwt | 654 | 636 | 3% |
666 | -2% |
chart |
| Pig – Eastern Seaboard (60.1-75 kg), average of buyers & sellers | 01-Jun | Ac/kg cwt | 256 | 260 | -2% |
290 | -12% |
chart |
| Goat – Eastern States (12.1-16 kg) | 18-Jun | Ac/kg cwt | 508 | 508 | 0% | 660 | -23% |
chart |
| Live cattle – Light steers ex Darwin to Indonesia | 16-Jun | Ac/kg lwt | 260 | 260 | 0% | na | na | chart |
| Live sheep – Live wether (Muchea WA saleyard) to Middle East | 14-May | $/head | 95 | na | na | 116 | -18% |
chart |
Global Dairy Trade weighted average pricesa |
||||||||
| Dairy – Whole milk powder | 19-Jun | US$/t | 3,189 | 3,205 | <1% |
3,022 | 6% |
chart |
| Dairy – Skim milk powder | 19-Jun | US$/t | 2,003 | 2,051 | -2% |
2,218 | -10% |
chart |
| Dairy – Cheddar cheese | 19-Jun | US$/t | 3,847 | 3,998 | -4% |
4,121 | -7% |
chart |
| Dairy – Anhydrous milk fat | 19-Jun | US$/t | 6,060 | 6,222 | -3% |
6,885 | -12% |
chart |
a Global Dairy Trade prices are updated twice monthly on the first and third Tuesday of each month.
Movements in selected fruit and vegetable prices
Data attribution
Water
Water storages, water markets and water allocations - current week
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